Spatio-temporal landscape modelling for natural hazard vulnerability analysis in select watersheds of Central Western Ghats

Natural hazards such as landslides are triggered by numerous factors such as ground movements, rock falls, slope failure, debris flows, slope instability, etc. Changes in slope stability happen due to human intervention, anthropogenic activities, change in soil structure, loss or absence of vegetation (changes in land cover), etc. Loss of vegetation happens when the forest is fragmented due to anthropogenic activities. Hence land cover mapping with forest fragmentation can provide vital information for visualising the regions that require immediate attention from slope stability aspects. The main objective of this paper is to understand the rate of change in forest landscape from 1973 to 2004 through multi-sensor remote sensing data analysis. The forest fragmentation index presented here is based on temporal land use information and forest fragmentation model, in which the forest pixels are classified as patch, transitional, edge, perforated, and interior, that give a measure of forest continuity. The analysis carried out for five prominent watersheds of Uttara Kannada district– Aganashini, Bedthi, Kali, Sharavathi and Venkatpura revealed that interior forest is continuously decreasing while patch, transitional, edge and perforated forest show increasing trend. The effect of forest fragmentation on landslide occurrence was visualised by overlaying the landslide occurrence points on classified image and forest fragmentation map. The increasing patch and transitional forest on hill slopes are the areas prone to landslides, evident from the field verification, indicating that deforestation is a major triggering factor for landslides. This emphasises the need for immediate conservation measures for sustainable management of the landscape. Quantifying and describing land use - land cover change and fragmentation is crucial for assessing the effect of land management policies and environmental protection decisions.

Seismic vulnerability analysis of wide-beam buildings in Spain

A number of short-to-mid height RC buildings with wide beams have been constructed in moderate-seismicity areas of Spain. The seismic behavior in the direction of the wide beams appears to be deficient because of low lateral strength, low ductility of the wide beams, big strut compressive forces inside the column-beam connections, and unreliable contribution of the spandrel zones of the wide beams. In the orthogonal direction, the behavior is worse since only the joists and the façade beams contribute to the lateral resistance. The objective is to assess the seismic capability of these structures; further research will involve proposing retrofit strategies. The research approach consists of selecting a number of representative buildings and evaluating their vulnerability by code-type, push-over and dynamic analyses. The cooperation of the masonry infill walls is accounted for. The main conclusion is that the seismic behavior of these buildings is inadequate in most of the situations.

Vulnerability analysis of RC buildings with wide beams located in moderate seismicity regions

A significant number of short-to-mid height RC buildings with wide beams have been constructed in areas of moderate seismicity of Spain, mainly for housing and administrative use. The buildings have a framed structure with one-way slabs; the wide beams constitute the distinctive characteristic, their depth being equal to that of the rest of the slab, thus providing a flat lower surface, convenient for construction and the layout of facilities. Seismic behavior in the direction of the wide beams appears to be deficient because of: (i) low lateral strength, mainly because of the small effective depth of the beams, (ii) inherent low ductility of the wide beams, generated by high amount of reinforcement, (iii) the big strut compressive forces developed inside the column-beam connections due to the low height of the beams, and (iv) the fact that the wide beams are wider than the columns, meaning that the contribution of the outer zones to the resistance of the beam-column joints is unreliable because there is no torsion reinforcement. In the orthogonal direction, the behavior is worse since the only members of the slabs that contribute to the lateral resistance are the joists and the façade beams. Moreover, these buildings were designed with codes that did not include ductility requirements and required only a low lateral resistance; indeed, in many cases, seismic action was not considered at all. Consequently, the seismic capacity of these structures is not reliable. The objective of this research is to assess numerically this capability, whereas further research will aim to propose retrofit strategies. The research approach consists of: (i) selecting a number of 3-story and 6-story buildings that represent the vast majority of the existing ones and (ii) evaluating their vulnerability through three types of analyses, namely: code-type, push-over and nonlinear dynamic analysis. Given the low lateral resistance of the main frames, the cooperation of the masonry infill walls is accounted for; for each representative building, three wall densities are considered. The results of the analyses show that the buildings in question exhibit inadequate seismic behavior in most of the examined situations. In general, the relative performance is less deficient for Target Drift CP (Collapse Prevention) than for IO (Immediate Occupancy). Since these buildings are selected to be representative of the vast majority of buildings with wide beams that were constructed in Spain without accounting for any seismic consideration, our conclusions can be extrapolated to a broader scenario.

A vulnerability analysis of the temperate forests of south central Chile A vulnerability analysis of the temperate forests of south central Chile. Biological Conservation, 122 2005: 9-21.

Areas of the landscape that are priorities for conservation should be those that are both vulnerable to threatening processes and that if lost or degraded, will result in conservation targets being compromised. While much attention is directed towards understanding the patterns of biodiversity, much less is given to determining the areas of the landscape most vulnerable to threats. We assessed the relative vulnerability of remaining areas of native forest to conversion to plantations in the ecologically significant temperate rainforest region of south central Chile. The area of the study region is 4.2 million ha and the extent of plantations is approximately 200000 ha. First, the spatial distribution of native forest conversion to plantations was determined. The variables related to the spatial distribution of this threatening process were identified through the development of a classification tree and the generation of a multivariate. spatially explicit, statistical model. The model of native forest conversion explained 43% of the deviance and the discrimination ability of the model was high. Predictions were made of where native forest conversion is likely to occur in the future. Due to patterns of climate, topography, soils and proximity to infrastructure and towns, remaining forest areas differ in their relative risk of being converted to plantations. Another factor that may increase the vulnerability of remaining native forest in a subset of the study region is the proposed construction of a highway. We found that 90% of the area of existing plantations within this region is within 2.5 km of roads. When the predictions of native forest conversion were recalculated accounting for the construction of this highway, it was found that: approximately 27000 ha of native forest had an increased probability of conversion. The areas of native forest identified to be vulnerable to conversion are outside of the existing reserve network. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All tights reserved.

Classification of railway bridges based on criticality and vulnerability factors

Bridges are currently rated individually for maintenance and repair action according to the structural conditions of their elements. Dealing with thousands of bridges and the many factors that cause deterioration, makes this rating process extremely complicated. The current simplified but practical methods are not accurate enough. On the other hand, the sophisticated, more accurate methods are only used for a single or particular bridge type. It is therefore necessary to develop a practical and accurate rating system for a network of bridges. The first most important step in achieving this aim is to classify bridges based on the differences in nature and the unique characteristics of the critical factors and the relationship between them, for a network of bridges. Critical factors and vulnerable elements will be identified and placed in different categories. This classification method will be used to develop a new practical rating method for a network of railway bridges based on criticality and vulnerability analysis. This rating system will be more accurate and economical as well as improve the safety and serviceability of railway bridges.

Recent advances in modeling the vulnerability of transportation networks

It is well known that, for major infrastructure networks such as electricity, gas, railway, road, and urban water networks, disruptions at one point have a knock on effect throughout the network. There is an impressive amount of individual research projects examining the vulnerability of critical infrastructure network. However, there is little understanding of the totality of the contribution made by these projects and their interrelationships. This makes their review a difficult process for both new and existing researchers in the field. To address this issue, a two-step literature review process is used, to provide an overview of the vulnerability of the transportation network in terms of four main themes - research objective, transportation mode, disruption scenario and vulnerability indicator –involving the analysis of related articles from 2001 to 2013. Two limitations of existing research are identified: (1) the limited amount of studies relating to multi-layer transportation network vulnerability analysis, and (2) the lack of evaluation methods to explore the relationship between structure vulnerability and dynamical functional vulnerability. In addition to indicating that more attention needs to be paid to these two aspects in future, the analysis provides a new avenue for the discovery of knowledge, as well as an improved understanding of transportation network vulnerability.

A physical approach on flood risk vulnerability of buildings

The design of efficient hydrological risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation relies on a careful vulnerability analysis of the elements exposed. Recently, extensive research efforts were undertaken to develop and refine empirical relationships linking the structural vulnerability of buildings to the impact forces of the hazard processes. These empirical vulnerability functions allow estimating the expected direct losses as a result of the hazard scenario based on spatially explicit representation of the process patterns and the elements at risk classified into defined typological categories. However, due to the underlying empiricism of such vulnerability functions, the physics of the damage-generating mechanisms for a well-defined element at risk with its peculiar geometry and structural characteristics remain unveiled, and, as such, the applicability of the empirical approach for planning hazard-proof residential buildings is limited. Therefore, we propose a conceptual assessment scheme to close this gap. This assessment scheme encompasses distinct analytical steps: modelling (a) the process intensity, (b) the impact on the element at risk exposed and (c) the physical response of the building envelope. Furthermore, these results provide the input data for the subsequent damage evaluation and economic damage valuation. This dynamic assessment supports all relevant planning activities with respect to a minimisation of losses, and can be implemented in the operational risk assessment procedure.

Enhancing the trust of location acquisition systems for critical applications and location-based security services

This paper identifies a number of critical infrastructure applications that are reliant on location services from cooperative location technologies such as GPS and GSM. We show that these location technologies can be represented in a general location model, such that the model components can be used for vulnerability analysis. We perform a vulnerability analysis on these components of GSM and GPS location systems as well as a number of augmentations to these systems.

Teamworking for security : the collaborative approach

Collaborative methods are promising tools for solving complex security tasks. In this context, the authors present the security overlay framework CIMD (Collaborative Intrusion and Malware Detection), enabling participants to state objectives and interests for joint intrusion detection and find groups for the exchange of security-related data such as monitoring or detection results accordingly; to these groups the authors refer as detection groups. First, the authors present and discuss a tree-oriented taxonomy for the representation of nodes within the collaboration model. Second, they introduce and evaluate an algorithm for the formation of detection groups. After conducting a vulnerability analysis of the system, the authors demonstrate the validity of CIMD by examining two different scenarios inspired sociology where the collaboration is advantageous compared to the non-collaborative approach. They evaluate the benefit of CIMD by simulation in a novel packet-level simulation environment called NeSSi (Network Security Simulator) and give a probabilistic analysis for the scenarios.

Design and modeling of collaboration architecture for security

Threats against computer networks evolve very fast and require more and more complex measures. We argue that teams respectively groups with a common purpose for intrusion detection and prevention improve the measures against rapid propagating attacks similar to the concept of teams solving complex tasks known from field of work sociology. Collaboration in this sense is not easy task especially for heterarchical environments. We propose CIMD (collaborative intrusion and malware detection) as a security overlay framework to enable cooperative intrusion detection approaches. Objectives and associated interests are used to create detection groups for exchange of security-related data. In this work, we contribute a tree-oriented data model for device representation in the scope of security. We introduce an algorithm for the formation of detection groups, show realization strategies for the system and conduct vulnerability analysis. We evaluate the benefit of CIMD by simulation and probabilistic analysis.

Synthetic rating procedures for railway bridges

One of the most important parts of any Bridge Management System (BMS) is the condition assessment and rating of bridges. This paper, introduces a procedure for condition assessment, based on criticality and vulnerability analysis. According to this procedure, new rating equations are developed. The inventory data is used to determine the contribution of different critical factors such as environmental effects, flood, earthquake, wind, and vehicle impacts. The criticality of the components to live load and vulnerability of the components to the above critical factors are identified. Based on the criticality and the vulnerability of the components and criticality of factors, and by using the new rating equations, the condition assessment and the rating of the railway bridges and their components at the network level will be conducted. This method for the first time incorporates structural analysis, available knowledge of risk assessment in structural engineering standards, and the experience of structural engineers in a practical way to enhance the reliability of the condition assessment and rating a network of bridges.

Classification of road damage due to earthquakes

Earthquakes cause massive road damage which in turn causes adverse effects on the society. Previous studies have quantified the damage caused to residential and commercial buildings; however, not many studies have been conducted to quantify road damage caused by earthquakes. In this study, an attempt has been made to propose a new scale to classify and quantify the road damage due to earthquakes based on the data collected from major earthquakes in the past. The proposed classification for road damage due to earthquake is called as road damage scale (RDS). Earthquake details such as magnitude, distance of road damage from the epicenter, focal depth, and photographs of damaged roads have been collected from various sources with reported modified Mercalli intensity (MMI). The widely used MMI scale is found to be inadequate to clearly define the road damage. The proposed RDS is applied to various reported road damage and reclassified as per RDS. The correlation between RDS and earthquake parameters of magnitude, epicenter distance, hypocenter distance, and combination of magnitude with epicenter and hypocenter distance has been studied using available data. It is observed that the proposed RDS correlates well with the available earthquake data when compared with the MMI scale. Among several correlations, correlation between RDS and combination of magnitude and epicenter distance is appropriate. Summary of these correlations, their limitations, and the applicability of the proposed scale to forecast road damages and to carry out vulnerability analysis in urban areas is presented in the paper.

Structural Design under Seismic Risk Using Multiple Performance Objectives

Structural design is a decision-making process in which a wide spectrum of requirements, expectations, and concerns needs to be properly addressed. Engineering design criteria are considered together with societal and client preferences, and most of these design objectives are affected by the uncertainties surrounding a design. Therefore, realistic design frameworks must be able to handle multiple performance objectives and incorporate uncertainties from numerous sources into the process.

In this study, a multi-criteria based design framework for structural design under seismic risk is explored. The emphasis is on reliability-based performance objectives and their interaction with economic objectives. The framework has analysis, evaluation, and revision stages. In the probabilistic response analysis, seismic loading uncertainties as well as modeling uncertainties are incorporated. For evaluation, two approaches are suggested: one based on preference aggregation and the other based on socio-economics. Both implementations of the general framework are illustrated with simple but informative design examples to explore the basic features of the framework.

The first approach uses concepts similar to those found in multi-criteria decision theory, and directly combines reliability-based objectives with others. This approach is implemented in a single-stage design procedure. In the socio-economics based approach, a two-stage design procedure is recommended in which societal preferences are treated through reliability-based engineering performance measures, but emphasis is also given to economic objectives because these are especially important to the structural designer's client. A rational net asset value formulation including losses from uncertain future earthquakes is used to assess the economic performance of a design. A recently developed assembly-based vulnerability analysis is incorporated into the loss estimation.

The presented performance-based design framework allows investigation of various design issues and their impact on a structural design. It is a flexible one that readily allows incorporation of new methods and concepts in seismic hazard specification, structural analysis, and loss estimation.

Diretrizes para a gestão de emergência em situações de acidentes químicos: estudo em uma universidade pública do Estado do Rio de Janeiro.

Instituições de Ensino Superior (IES) que realizam atividades de ensino e pesquisa em Química, em geral são potenciais áreas de risco de acidentes, uma vez que utilizam substâncias químicas perigosas em seus processos de ensino e pesquisa. Esta pesquisa se justifica em face da existência de substâncias de natureza química e biológica as quais possuem riscos à saúde e ao meio ambiente e de alguns acidentes já ocorridos em diversas IES no Brasil e exterior. O objetivo da pesquisa foi elaborar diretrizes para a gestão de emergências em acidentes químicos que possam ser aplicadas nos laboratórios de um Instituto de Química de uma Universidade Pública do Estado do Rio de Janeiro. Trata-se de um estudo exploratório e descritivo, aplicado a um caso estudado, de uma emergência. Realizou-se de revisão em literatura especializada, visitas aos laboratórios, registros fotográficos e entrevistas dirigidas a funcionários, técnicos e professores do IQ. A metodologia de avaliação de vulnerabilidade baseou-se no método dos cinco passos da Federal Emergency Management Agency. O estudo de caso mostrou que o Instituto de Química não possui uma Gestão de Emergências Químicas, com ausência de brigada de incêndio e o não cumprimento de normas técnicas e regulamentares. Apesar disso, existem laboratórios que possuem um perfil satisfatório quanto à segurança e saúde. O estudo mostrou também que a metodologia de Análise de Vulnerabilidade é uma boa ferramenta para elaboração de diretrizes voltadas para um Plano de Emergência, quando conduzida por equipe especializada.