Volcanic processes and human exposure as elements to build a risk model for Volcan de Fuego, Guatemala

The activity of Fuego volcano during the 1999 - 2013 eruptive episode is studied through field, remote sensing and observatory records. Mapping of the deposits allows quantifying the erupted volumes and areas affected by the largest eruptions during this period. A wide range of volcanic processes results in a diversity of products and associated deposits, including minor airfall tephra, rockfall avalanches, lava flows, and pyroclastic flows. The activity can be characterized by long term, low level background activity, and sporadic larger explosive eruptions. Although the background activity erupts lava and ash at a low rate (~ 0.1 m3/s), the persistence of such activity over time results in a significant contribution (~ 30%) to the eruption budget during the studied period. Larger eruptions produced the majority of the volume of products during the studied period, mainly during three large events (May 21, 1999, June 29, 2003, and September 13, 2012), mostly in the form of pyroclastic flows. A total volume of ~ 1.4 x 108 m3 was estimated from the mapped deposits and the estimated background eruption rate. Posterior remobilization of pyroclastic flow material by stream erosion in the highly confined Barranca channels leads to lahar generation, either by normal rainfall, or by extreme rainfall events. A reassessment of the types of products and volumes erupted during the decade of 1970's allows comparing the activity happening since 1999 with the older activity, and suggests that many of the eruptive phenomena at Fuego may have similar mechanisms, despite the differences in scale between. The deposits of large pyroclastic flows erupted during the 1970's are remarkably similar in appearance to the deposit of pyroclastic flows from the 1999 - 2013 period, despite their much larger volume; this is also the case for prehistoric eruptions. Radiocarbon dating of pyroclastic flow deposits suggests that Fuego has produced large eruptions many times during the last ~ 2 ka, including larger eruptions during the last 500 years, which has important hazard implications. A survey was conducted among the local residents living near to the volcano, about their expectations of possible future crises. The results show that people are aware of the risk they could face in case of a large eruption, and therefore they are willing to evacuate in such case. However, their decision to evacuate may also be influenced by the conditions in which the evacuation could take place. If the evacuation represents a potential loss of their livelihood or property they will be more hesitant to leave their villages during a large eruption. The prospect of facing hardship conditions during the evacuation and in the shelters may further cause reluctance to evacuate. A short discussion on some of the issues regarding risk assessment and management through an early warning system is presented in the last chapter.

Assessment the Health Hazard from (222)Rn in Old Metalliferous Mines in San Luis, Argentina

Radon levels in two old mines in San Luis, Argentina, are reported and analyzed. The radiation dose and environmental health risk of (222)Rn concentrations to both guides and visitors were estimated. CR-39 nuclear track detectors were used for this purpose. The values for the (222)Rn concentration at each monitoring site ranged from 0.43 +/- 0.04 to 1.48 +/- 0.12 kBq m(-3) in the Los Cndores wolfram mine and from 1.8 +/- 0.1 to 6.0 +/- 0.5 kBq center dot m(-3) in the La Carolina gold mine, indicating that, in this mine, the radon levels exceed up to four times the action level of 1.5 kBq m(-3) recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection. The patterns of the radon transport process revealed that the La Carolina gold mine can be interpreted as a gas confined into a single tube with constant cross-section and air velocity. Patterns of radon activity, taking into account the chimney-effect winds, were used to detect tributary currents of air from shafts or larger fissures along the main adit of the Los Cndores mine, showing that radon can be used as an important tracer of tributary air currents stream out from fissures and smaller voids in the rock of the mine.

Reconstruction of Etna recent flank eruptions for assessing diversion barrier project

The thesis contributed to the volcanic hazard assessment through the reconstruction of some historical flank eruptions of Etna in order to obtain quantitative data (volumes, effusion rates, etc.) for characterizing the recent effusive activity, quantifying the impact on the territory and defining mitigation actions for reducing the volcanic risk as for example containment barriers. The reconstruction was based on a quantitative approach using data extracted from aerial photographs and topographic maps. The approach allows to obtain the temporal evolution of the lava flow field and estimating the Time Average Discharge Rate (TADR) by dividing the volume emplaced over a given time interval for the corresponding duration. The analysis concerned the 2001, 1981 and 1928 Etna eruptions. The choice of these events is linked to their impact on inhabited areas. The results of the analysis showed an extraordinarily high effusion rate for the 1981 and 1928 eruptions (over 600 m^3/s), unusual for Etna eruptions. For the 1981 Etna eruption an eruptive model was proposed to explain the high discharge rate. The obtained TADRs were used as input data for simulations of the propagation of the lava flows for evaluating different scenarios of volcanic hazard and analyse different mitigation actions against lava flow invasion. It was experienced how numerical simulations could be adopted for evaluating the effectiveness of barrier construction and for supporting their optimal design. In particular, the gabions were proposed as an improvement for the construction of barriers with respect to the earthen barriers. The gabion barriers allow to create easily modular structures reducing the handled volumes and the intervention time. For evaluating operational constrain an experimental test was carried out to test the filling of the gabions with volcanic rock and evaluating their deformation during transport and placement.

El Estribo Volcanic Complex: Evolution from a shield volcano to a cinder cone, Pátzcuaro Lake, Michoacán, México

El Estribo Volcanic Complex (EVC) is located in the northern part of the Michoacán–Guanajuato Volcanic Field within the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB). El Estribo is located at the southern edge of the E-W Pátzcuaro fault that belongs to the Pátzcuaro-Jarácuaro graben, a western extension of the E-W Morelia–Acambay fault system. Stratigraphy, geochronology, chemistry, and mineral assemblages suggest that the volcanic complex was constructed in two periods separated by a ~ 100 ka volcanic hiatus: a) emission of lava flows that constructed a shield volcano between 126 ka, and b) mixed phreatomagmatic to Strombolian activity that formed a cinder cone ~ 28 ka. The magmas that fed these monogenetic volcanoes were able to use the same feeding system. The cinder cone itself was constructed by Strombolian fallouts and remobilized scoria beds, followed by an erosion period, and by a mixed phreatomagmatic to magmatic phase (Strombolian fallouts ending with lava flows). Soft-sedimentary deformation of beds and impact sags, cross-bedding, as well as pitting and hydrothermal cracks found in particles support the phreatomagmatic phase. The erupted magmas through time ejected basaltic andesitic lava flows (56.21–58.88% SiO2) that built the shield volcano and then basaltic andesitic scoria (57.65–59.05% SiO2) that constructed the cinder cone. Although they used the same feeding system, the geochemical data and the mineral chemistry of the magmas indicate that the shield volcano and the cinder cone were fed by different magma batches erupted thousands of years apart. Therefore, the location of El Estribo Volcanic Complex along an E-W fault that has generated two sector collapses of the shield volcano to the north may be directly linked to this complex redistribution of the magmatic paths to the surface. Our findings show that magmatic feeding systems within monogenetic volcanic fields could be long lived, questioning the classic view of the monogenetic nature of their volcanoes and yielding information about the potential volcanic risk of these settings, usually considered risk-free.

Análisis multidisciplinar del fenómeno sismo-volcánico de El Hierro (julio 2011)

La erupción volcánica submarina de La Restinga (10 de octubre) ha permitido, por primera vez, poner en marcha el Plan Especial de Protección Civil y Atención de Emergencias por Riesgo Volcánico en la Comunidad Autónoma de Canarias. En este proyecto se ha realizado un análisis multidisciplinar de los principales elementos que han estado involucrados en la gestión de la crisis y sus repercusiones sociales, económicas y ambientales. Los resultados indican que, hoy en día, se cuenta con los medios necesarios para realizar la detección temprana y el seguimiento de procesos similares que tengan lugar en el Archipiélago pero, no obstante, sería necesario actualizar el presente Plan PEVOLCA, debido a las deficiencias detectadas. Estas deficiencias, además de afectar a la gestión del fenómeno sismo-volcánico, han provocado que se tomasen medidas de protección civil que han generado grandes repercusiones sociales y económicas en la Isla. Respecto a las consecuencias ambientales en la Reserva Marina de Punta La Restinga-Mar de Las Calmas se prevé una recuperación a corto plazo, siempre que se apliquen las medidas necesarias.

A press database on natural risks and its application in the study of floods in Northeastern Spain

The aim of this work is to introduce a systematic press database on natural hazards and climate change in Catalonia (NE of Spain) and to analyze its potential application to social-impact studies. For this reason, a review of the concepts of risk, hazard, vulnerability and social perception is also included. This database has been built for the period 1982¿2007 and contains all the news related with those issues published by the oldest still-active newspaper in Catalonia. Some parameters are registered for each article and for each event, including criteria that enable us to determine the importance accorded to it by the newspaper, and a compilation of information about it. This ACCESS data base allows each article to be classified on the basis of the seven defined topics and key words, as well as summary information about the format and structuring of the new itself, the social impact of the event and data about the magnitude or intensity of the event. The coverage given to this type of news has been assessed because of its influence on construction of the social perception of natural risk and climate change, and as a potential source of information about them. The treatment accorded by the press to different risks is also considered. More than 14 000 press articles have been classified. Results show that the largest number of news items for the period 1982¿2007 relates to forest fires and droughts, followed by floods and heavy rainfalls, although floods are the major risk in the region of study. Two flood events recorded in 2002 have been analyzed in order to show an example of the role of the press information as indicator of risk perception.

La réclamation en dommages punitifs et son effet sur l’assurance responsabilité : analyse de la faute intentionnelle et de l’atteinte illicite et intentionnelle

Les réclamations pour dommages punitifs en vertu de la Charte des droits et libertés de la personne se multiplient depuis plusieurs années devant les tribunaux. Pour être accueillie, cette réclamation implique la démonstration d’une atteinte illicite et intentionnelle à un droit ou une liberté protégé par cette charte. Les recours en responsabilité peuvent faire l’objet d’une couverture d’assurance. Or, le Code civil du Québec prévoit spécifiquement que l’assureur n’est pas tenu de couvrir la faute intentionnelle de l’assuré. Est-ce à dire que l’assureur n’a pas d’obligation envers son assuré lorsque des dommages punitifs sont réclamés? Il s’agit donc de déterminer si le concept de faute intentionnelle et celui d’atteinte illicite et intentionnelle sont des concepts qui s’équivalent ou qu’il est nécessaire de distinguer. Pour cette analyse, ces deux concepts seront abordés en profondeur. Il sera question de l’origine de ces deux notions, de leurs fondements et de leur interprétation pour finalement définir ces termes le plus précisément possible. Ces définitions permettront d’opposer ces deux notions et de déterminer au final qu’il existe plusieurs éléments qui différencient ces concepts, notamment à l’égard de l’intention requise, faisant en sorte qu’ils ne peuvent être assimilés. Cette conclusion aura un impact certain sur les obligations de l’assureur de défendre l’assuré et d’indemniser la victime pour ses dommages compensatoires lorsqu’il existe une réclamation en dommages punitifs et, par conséquent, l’assureur ne pourra faire reposer son refus de défendre ou d’indemniser sur la seule base de la preuve d’une atteinte illicite et intentionnelle.

Continuous geochemical monitoring by mass-spectometer in the Campi Flegrei geothermal area. An application at Pisciarelli-Solfatara (diffuse and fumarolic gases) and at the mud gases during drilling of the CFDDP pilot hole

During this work has been developed an innovative methodology for continuous and in situ gas monitoring (24/24 h) of fumarolic and soil diffusive emissions applied to the geothermal and volcanic area of Pisciarelli near Agnano inside the Campi Flegrei caldera (CFc). In literature there are only scattered and in discrete data of the geochemical gas composition of fumarole at Campi Flegrei; it is only since the early ’80 that exist a systematic record of fumaroles with discrete sampling at Solfatara (Bocca Grande and Bocca Nuova fumaroles) and since 1999, even at the degassing areas of Pisciarelli. This type of sampling has resulted in a time series of geochemical analysis with discontinuous periods of time set (in average 2-3 measurements per month) completely inadequate for the purposes of Civil Defence in such high volcanic risk and densely populated areas. For this purpose, and to remedy this lack of data, during this study was introduced a new methodology of continuous and in situ sampling able to continuously detect data related and from its soil diffusive degassing. Due to its high sampling density (about one measurement per minute therefore producing 1440 data daily) and numerous species detected (CO2, Ar, 36Ar, CH4, He, H2S, N2, O2) allowing a good statistic record and the reconstruction of the gas composition evolution of the investigated area. This methodology is based on continuous sampling of fumaroles gases and soil degassing using an extraction line, which after undergoing a series of condensation processes of the water vapour content - better described hereinafter - is analyzed through using a quadrupole mass spectrometer

Associations of obesity and body fat distribution with incident atrial fibrillation in the biracial health aging and body composition cohort of older adults

UNLABELLED Obesity is a well-recognized risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF), yet adiposity measures other than body mass index (BMI) have had limited assessment in relation to AF risk. We examined the associations of adiposity measures with AF in a biracial cohort of older adults. Given established racial differences in obesity and AF, we assessed for differences by black and white race in relating adiposity and AF. METHODS We analyzed data from 2,717 participants of the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study. Adiposity measures were BMI, abdominal circumference, subcutaneous and visceral fat area, and total and percent fat mass. We determined the associations between the adiposity measures and 10-year incidence of AF using Cox proportional hazards models and assessed for their racial differences in these estimates. RESULTS In multivariable-adjusted models, 1-SD increases in BMI, abdominal circumference, and total fat mass were associated with a 13% to 16% increased AF risk (hazard ratio [HR] 1.14, 95% CI 1.02-1.28; HR 1.16, 95% CI 1.04-1.28; and HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.002-1.27). Subcutaneous and visceral fat areas were not significantly associated with incident AF. We did not identify racial differences in the associations between the adiposity measures and AF. CONCLUSION Body mass index, abdominal circumference, and total fat mass are associated with risk of AF for 10years among white and black older adults. Obesity is one of a limited number of modifiable risk factors for AF; future studies are essential to evaluate how obesity reduction can modify the incidence of AF.

Modifier genes and susceptibility to colorectal cancer in individuals with Lynch syndrome

Lynch syndrome, is caused by inherited germ-line mutations in the DNA mismatch repair genes resulting in cancers at an early age, predominantly colorectal (CRC) and endometrial cancers. Though the median age at onset for CRC is about 45 years, disease penetrance varies suggesting that cancer susceptibility may be modified by environmental or other low-penetrance genes. Genetic variation due to polymorphisms in genes encoding metabolic enzymes can influence carcinogenesis by alterations in the expression and activity level of the enzymes. Variation in MTHFR, an important folate metabolizing enzyme can affect DNA methylation and DNA synthesis and variation in xenobiotic-metabolizing enzymes can affect the metabolism and clearance of carcinogens, thus modifying cancer risk. ^ This study examined a retrospective cohort of 257 individuals with Lynch syndrome, for polymorphisms in genes encoding xenobiotic-metabolizing enzymes-- CYP1A1 (I462V and MspI), EPHX1 (H139R and Y113H), GSTP1 (I105V and A114V), GSTM1 and GSTT1 (deletions) and folate metabolizing enzyme--MTHFR (C677T and A1298C). In addition, a series of 786 cases of sporadic CRC were genotyped for CYP1A1 I462V and EPHX1 Y113H to assess gene-gene interaction and gene-environment interaction with smoking in a case-only analysis. ^ Prominent findings of this study were that the presence of an MTHFR C677T variant allele was associated with a 4 year later age at onset for CRC on average and a reduced age-associated risk for developing CRC (Hazard ratio: 0.55; 95% confidence interval: 0.36–0.85) compared to the absence of any variant allele in individuals with Lynch syndrome. Similarly, Lynch syndrome individuals heterozygous for CYP1A1 I462V A>G polymorphism developed CRC an average of 4 years earlier and were at a 78% increased age-associated risk (Hazard ratio for AG relative to AA: 1.78; 95% confidence interval: 1.16-2.74) than those with the homozygous wild-type genotype. Therefore these two polymorphisms may be additional susceptibility factors for CRC in Lynch syndrome. In the case-only analysis, evidence of gene-gene interaction was seen between CYP1A1 I462V and EPHX1 Y113H and between EPHX1 Y113H and smoking suggesting that genetic and environmental factors may interact to increase sporadic CRC risk. Implications of these findings are the ability to identify subsets of high-risk individuals for targeted prevention and intervention. ^

An Overview of Geodetic Volcano Research in the Canary Islands

The Canary Islands are mostly characterized by diffuse and scattered volcanism affecting a large area, with only one active stratovolcano, the Teide?Pico Viejo complex (Tenerife). More than 2 million people live and work in the 7,447 km2 of the archipelago, resulting in an average population density three times greater than the rest of Spain. This fact, together with the growth of exposure during the past 40 years, increases volcanic risk with respect previous eruptions, as witnessed during the recent 2011?2012 El Hierro submarine eruption. Therefore, in addition to purely scientific reasons there are economic and population-security reasons for developing and maintaining an efficient volcano monitoring system. In this scenario geodetic monitoring represents an important part of the monitoring system. We describe volcano geodetic monitoring research carried out in the Canary Islands and the results obtained. We consider for each epoch the two main existing constraints: the level of volcanic activity in the archipelago, and the limitations of the techniques available at the time. Theoretical and observational aspects are considered, as well as the implications for operational volcano surveillance. Current challenges of and future perspectives in geodetic volcano monitoring in the Canaries are also presented.

The relationship between adipokines and the onset of type 2 diabetes in middle-aged men: The PRIME study

Aims: Epidemiological evidence suggests that adipokines may be associated with the onset of type 2 diabetes, but the evidence to date is limited and inconclusive. This study examined the association between adiponectin and leptin and the subsequent diagnosis of type 2 diabetes in a UK population based cohort of non-diabetic middle-aged men.
Methods: Baseline serum levels of leptin and adiponectin were measured in 1839 nondiabetic men aged 50–60 years who were participating in the prospective populationbased PRIME study. Over a mean follow-up of 14.7 years, new cases of type 2 diabetes were determined from self-reported clinical information with subsequent validation by general practitioners.
Results: 151 Participants developed type 2 diabetes during follow-up. In Cox regression models adjusted for age, men in the top third of the leptin distribution were at increased risk (hazard ratio (HR) 4.27, 95% CI 2.67–6.83) and men in the top third of the adiponectin
distribution at reduced risk (HR 0.24, 95% CI 0.14–0.42) relative to men in the bottom third. However, significance was lost for leptin after additional adjustment for BMI, waist to hip ratio, lifestyle factors and biological risk factors, including C-reactive protein (CRP). Further adjustment for HOMA-IR also resulted in loss of significance for adiponectin.
Conclusions: This study provides evidence that adipokines are associated with men’s future type 2 diabetes risk but not independently of other risk factors.

What Are Effective Program Characteristics of Self-Management Interventions in Patients With Heart Failure? : An Individual Patient Data Meta-analysis

Background To identify those characteristics of self-management interventions in patients with heart failure (HF) that are effective in influencing health-related quality of life, mortality, and hospitalizations. Methods and Results Randomized trials on self-management interventions conducted between January 1985 and June 2013 were identified and individual patient data were requested for meta-analysis. Generalized mixed effects models and Cox proportional hazard models including frailty terms were used to assess the relation between characteristics of interventions and health-related outcomes. Twenty randomized trials (5624 patients) were included. Longer intervention duration reduced mortality risk (hazard ratio 0.99, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.97–0.999 per month increase in duration), risk of HF-related hospitalization (hazard ratio 0.98, 95% CI 0.96–0.99), and HF-related hospitalization at 6 months (risk ratio 0.96, 95% CI 0.92–0.995). Although results were not consistent across outcomes, interventions comprising standardized training of interventionists, peer contact, log keeping, or goal-setting skills appeared less effective than interventions without these characteristics. Conclusion No specific program characteristics were consistently associated with better effects of self-management interventions, but longer duration seemed to improve the effect of self-management interventions on several outcomes. Future research using factorial trial designs and process evaluations is needed to understand the working mechanism of specific program characteristics of self-management interventions in HF patients.

Impact on hip fracture mortality after the establishment of an orthogeriatric care program in a colombian hospital

El objetivo del estudio es evaluar la mortalidad a un año en pacientes con fractura de cadera, mayores de 65 años tratados en un programa establecido de orto-geriatría. 298 se trataron de acuerdo al protocolo de orto-geriatría, se calculo la mortalidad a un año, se establecieron los predictores de mortalidad orto-geriátrico. La sobrevida anual se incremento de 80% a 89% (p = .039) durante los cuatro años de seguimiento del programa y disminuyo el riesgo de mortalidad anual postoperatorio (Hazard Ratio = 0.54, p = .049). La enfermedad cardiaca y la edad maor a 85 años fueron predictores positivos para mortalidad.