Numerical simulations of intense tropical storms

A high resolution general circulation model has been used to study intense tropical storms. A five-year-long global integration with a spatial resolution of 125 km has been analysed. The geographical and seasonal distribution of tropical storms agrees remarkably well with observations. The structure of individual storms also agrees with observations, but the storms are generally more extensive in coverage and less extreme than the observed ones. A few additional calculations have also been done by a very high resolution limited-area version of the same model, where the boundary conditions successively have been interpolated from the global model. These results are very realistic in many details of the structure of the storms including simulated rain-bands and an eye structure. The global model has also been used in another five-year integration to study the influence of greenhouse warming. The sea surface temperatures have been taken from a transient climate change experiment carried out with a low resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere model. The result is a significant reduction in the number of hurricanes, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. Main reasons for this can be found in changes in the largescale circulation, i.e. a weakening of the Hadley circulation, and a more intense warming of the upper tropical troposphere. A similar effect can be seen during warm ENSO events, where fewer North Atlantic hurricanes have been reported.

Tropical cyclones in a T159 Resolution Global Climate Model: comparison with observations and re-analyses

Tropical cyclones have been investigated in a T159 version of the MPI ECHAM5 climate model using a novel technique to diagnose the evolution of the 3-dimensional vorticity structure of tropical cyclones, including their full life cycle from weak initial vortex to their possible extra-tropical transition. Results have been compared with reanalyses (ERA40 and JRA25) and observed tropical storms during the period 1978-1999 for the Northern Hemisphere. There is no indication of any trend in the number or intensity of tropical storms during this period in ECHAM5 or in re-analyses but there are distinct inter-annual variations. The storms simulated by ECHAM5 are realistic both in space and time, but the model and even more so the re-analyses, underestimate the intensities of the most intense storms (in terms of their maximum wind speeds). There is an indication of a response to ENSO with a smaller number of Atlantic storms during El Niño in agreement with previous studies. The global divergence circulation responds to El Niño by setting up a large-scale convergence flow, with the center over the central Pacific with enhanced subsidence over the tropical Atlantic. At the same time there is an increase in the vertical wind shear in the region of the tropical Atlantic where tropical storms normally develop. There is a good correspondence between the model and ERA40 except that the divergence circulation is somewhat stronger in the model. The model underestimates storms in the Atlantic but tends to overestimate them in the Western Pacific and in the North Indian Ocean. It is suggested that the overestimation of storms in the Pacific by the model is related to an overly strong response to the tropical Pacific SST anomalies. The overestimation in 2 the North Indian Ocean is likely to be due to an over prediction in the intensity of monsoon depressions, which are then classified as intense tropical storms. Nevertheless, overall results are encouraging and will further contribute to increased confidence in simulating intense tropical storms with high-resolution climate models.

The role of baroclinic waves in the initiation of tropical cyclones across the southern Indian Ocean

Cases where tropical storms are initiated simultaneously along one latitude are investigated. It is argued that such structure arises as part of a baroclinic wave. A case from February 2008 is examined using European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses; the birth of three tropical cyclones in the low-level cyclonic regions to the east of upper-level troughs suggests that the wave was instrumental for initiation. Archived satellite imagery and storm warnings reveal that baroclinic waves over the southern Indian Ocean accompany tropical cyclogenesis twice a season on average, mainly in late summer, when breaking Rossby waves on the subtropical westerly jet are closest to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

Objective determination of the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere

Extratropical transition (ET) has eluded objective identification since the realisation of its existence in the 1970s. Recent advances in numerical, computational models have provided data of higher resolution than previously available. In conjunction with this, an objective characterisation of the structure of a storm has now become widely accepted in the literature. Here we present a method of combining these two advances to provide an objective method for defining ET. The approach involves applying K-means clustering to isolate different life-cycle stages of cyclones and then analysing the progression through these stages. This methodology is then tested by applying it to five recent years from the European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecasting operational analyses. It is found that this method is able to determine the general characteristics for ET in the Northern Hemisphere. Between 2008 and 2012, 54% (±7, 32 of 59) of Northern Hemisphere tropical storms are estimated to undergo ET. There is great variability across basins and time of year. To fully capture all the instances of ET is necessary to introduce and characterise multiple pathways through transition. Only one of the three transition types needed has been previously well-studied. A brief description of the alternate types of transitions is given, along with illustrative storms, to assist with further study

MJO Simulation Diagnostics

The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) interacts with and influences a wide range of weather and climate phenomena (e.g., monsoons, ENSO, tropical storms, midlatitude weather), and represents an important, and as yet unexploited, source of predictability at the subseasonal time scale. Despite the important role of the MJO in climate and weather systems, current global circulation models (GCMs) exhibit considerable shortcomings in representing this phenomenon. These shortcomings have been documented in a number of multimodel comparison studies over the last decade. However, diagnosis of model performance has been challenging, and model progress has been difficult to track, because of the lack of a coherent and standardized set of MJO diagnostics. One of the chief objectives of the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) MJO Working Group is the development of observation-based diagnostics for objectively evaluating global model simulations of the MJO in a consistent framework. Motivation for this activity is reviewed, and the intent and justification for a set of diagnostics is provided, along with specification for their calculation, and illustrations of their application. The diagnostics range from relatively simple analyses of variance and correlation to more sophisticated space–time spectral and empirical orthogonal function analyses. These diagnostic techniques are used to detect MJO signals, to construct composite life cycles, to identify associations of MJO activity with the mean state, and to describe interannual variability of the MJO.

Different responses in bulk density and saturated hydraulic conductivity to soil deformation by logging machinery on a Ferralsol under native forest

Ferralsols have high structural stability, although structural degradation has been observed to result from forest to tillage or pasture conversion. An experimental series of forest skidder passes in an east Amazonian natural forest was performed for testing the effects of mechanical stress during selective logging operations on a clay-rich Ferralsol under both dry and wet soil conditions. Distinct ruts formed up to 25 cm depth only under wet conditions. After nine passes the initially very low surface bulk density of between 0.69 and 0.80 g cm(-3) increased to 1.05 g cm(-3) in the wet soil and 0.92 g cm(-3) in the dry soil. Saturated hydraulic conductivities, initially > 250 mm h(-1), declined to a minimum of around 10 mm h(-1) in the wet soil after the first pass, and in the dry soil more gradually after nine passes. The contrasting response of bulk density and saturated hydraulic conductivity is explained by exposure of subsoil material at the base of the ruts where macrostructure rapidly deteriorated under wet conditions. We attribute the resultant moderately high hydraulic conductivities to the formation of stable microaggregates with fine sand to coarse silt textures. We conclude that the topsoil macrostructure of Ferralsols is subject to similar deterioration to that of Luvisols in temperate zones. The stable microstructure prevents marked compaction and decrease in hydraulic conductivity under wetter and more plastic soil conditions. However, typical tropical storms may regularly exceed the infiltration capacity of the deformed soils. In the deeper ruts water may concentrate and cause surface run-off, even in gently sloping areas. To avoid soil erosion, logging operations in sloping areas should therefore be restricted to dry soil conditions when rut formation is minimal.

Assessment of the socioeconomic and environmental impact of hurricane Ivan on Jamaica

Includes bibliography

Policy Brief: an assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the coastal and marine sector in the Caribbean

Caribbean policymakers are faced with special challenges from climate change and these are related to the uncertainties inherent in future climate projections and the complex linkages among climate change, physical and biological systems and socioeconomic sectors. The impacts of climate change threaten development in the Caribbean and may well erode previous gains in development as evidenced by the increased incidence of climate migrants internationally. This brief which is based on a recent study conducted by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (LC/CAR/L.395)1 provides a synthesis of the assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the coastal and marine sector in the Caribbean which were undertaken. It provides Caribbean policymakers with cutting-edge information on the region’s vulnerability and encourages the development of adaptation strategies informed by both local experience and expert knowledge. It proceeds from an acknowledgement that the unique combination of natural resources, ecosystems, economic activities, and human population settlements of the Caribbean will not be immune to the impacts of climate change, and local communities, countries and the subregion as a whole need to plan for, and adapt to, these effects. Climate and extreme weather hazards related to the coastal and marine sector encompass the distinct but related factors of sea level rise, increasing coastal water temperatures, tropical storms and hurricanes. Potential vulnerabilities for coastal zones include increased shoreline erosion leading to alteration of the coastline, loss of coastal wetlands, and changes in the abundance and diversity of fish and other marine populations. The study examines four key themes in the analysis: climate, vulnerability, economic and social costs associated with climate change impacts, and adaptive measures.

First results from an airborne GPS radio occultation system for atmospheric profiling

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Review of assessment, design, and mitigation of multiple hazards

Large parts of the world are subjected to one or more natural hazards, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, tropical storms (hurricanes, cyclones and typhoons), costal inundation and flooding. Virtually the entire world is at risk of man-made hazards. In recent decades, rapid population growth and economic development in hazard-prone areas have greatly increased the potential of multiple hazards to cause damage and destruction of buildings, bridges, power plants, and other infrastructure; thus posing a grave danger to the community and disruption of economic and societal activities. Although an individual hazard is significant in many parts of the United States (U.S.), in certain areas more than one hazard may pose a threat to the constructed environment. In such areas, structural design and construction practices should address multiple hazards in an integrated manner to achieve structural performance that is consistent with owner expectations and general societal objectives. The growing interest and importance of multiple-hazard engineering has been recognized recently. This has spurred the evolution of multiple-hazard risk-assessment frameworks and development of design approaches which have paved way for future research towards sustainable construction of new and improved structures and retrofitting of the existing structures. This report provides a review of literature and the current state of practice for assessment, design and mitigation of the impact of multiple hazards on structural infrastructure. It also presents an overview of future research needs related to multiple-hazard performance of constructed facilities.

Haiti : The 'invisibility' of a territory to build projects that strengthen their autonomy

Haiti, conocida en la época colonial como 'la Perla de las Antillas', su economía se organizó entorno a la producción de azúcar que proveían a través de Francia al resto de Europa. De este modo 70de la producción de azúcar era consumido en Europa y más del 60del café. Con una lógica que perseguía obtener los máximos rindes, buscaron mano de obra esclava en el África Subsahariana, población que directamente reemplazó a la originaria. Así comienza a plantearse el desarrollo de un tipo de economía en Haiti, que traería graves consecuencias ambientales hasta la actualidad. Hoy es el país más pobre de América, con una esperanza de vida de alrededor de 60 años, y la tasa de analfabetismo del 52. Ubicado en un área tropical, es frecuente que sufra el impacto de las tormentas tropicales y ciclones que, como consecuencia de una tala desmedida de laforestación originaria, las inundaciones acentúan los problemas, a lo que se suman los problemas sanitarios inherentes a un nivel de vida con tantas carencias; y a la preponderancia de minifundios en el área rural, llevan a conformar un escenario de enorme vulnerabilidad. En el año 2010, una triste noticia pondría a Haïti en el centro de la escena mundial: el terremoto de marzo de ese año que afectara el área de Puerto Príncipe dejando alrededor de 300.000 muertos y más de un millón de damnificados. En la actualidad la presencia debarrios enteros viviendo en carpas en espacios públicos, son una expresión de la vigencia de dicho evento. Sin embargo, desde mediados de la década pasada tienen lugar proyectos que intentan territorializar una experiencia argentina de reconocido impacto en procura de atender las necesidades de la población con mayor vulnerabilidad que habita en los espacios rurales. Se trata del Programa Pro Huerta, que desde hace más de veinte años se desarrolla en Argentina y se propuso en el ámbito de este país desde la perspectiva de la cooperación internacional. De este modo, en distintos departamentos de Haiti con el trabajo en conjunto de diversos países ponen en marcha un proyecto social de seguridad alimentaria. La finalidad es el análisis de la territorialización de la experiencia Pro Huerta Haiti a partir del enfoque de cooperación internacional del cual Argentina participa junto con Canadá y Haiti. Entre los resultados y aportes de esta investigación, se pudo constatar que en Haïtí se fortalecen las redes sociales, la familia, el trabajo solidario, la salud y en conjunto contribuyen a fortalecer la soberanía alimentaria, en un país con grandes carencias y gran vulnerabilidad. Asimismo, es interesante resaltar que el modelo de Cooperación Sur-Sur que la Argentina desarrolla, desde una visión horizontal donde nuestro país camina junto a Haití y Canadá en el aprendizaje cotidiano del crecimiento conjunto, donde cada país tiene mucho por seguir aprendiendo

Haiti : The 'invisibility' of a territory to build projects that strengthen their autonomy

Haiti, conocida en la época colonial como 'la Perla de las Antillas', su economía se organizó entorno a la producción de azúcar que proveían a través de Francia al resto de Europa. De este modo 70de la producción de azúcar era consumido en Europa y más del 60del café. Con una lógica que perseguía obtener los máximos rindes, buscaron mano de obra esclava en el África Subsahariana, población que directamente reemplazó a la originaria. Así comienza a plantearse el desarrollo de un tipo de economía en Haiti, que traería graves consecuencias ambientales hasta la actualidad. Hoy es el país más pobre de América, con una esperanza de vida de alrededor de 60 años, y la tasa de analfabetismo del 52. Ubicado en un área tropical, es frecuente que sufra el impacto de las tormentas tropicales y ciclones que, como consecuencia de una tala desmedida de laforestación originaria, las inundaciones acentúan los problemas, a lo que se suman los problemas sanitarios inherentes a un nivel de vida con tantas carencias; y a la preponderancia de minifundios en el área rural, llevan a conformar un escenario de enorme vulnerabilidad. En el año 2010, una triste noticia pondría a Haïti en el centro de la escena mundial: el terremoto de marzo de ese año que afectara el área de Puerto Príncipe dejando alrededor de 300.000 muertos y más de un millón de damnificados. En la actualidad la presencia debarrios enteros viviendo en carpas en espacios públicos, son una expresión de la vigencia de dicho evento. Sin embargo, desde mediados de la década pasada tienen lugar proyectos que intentan territorializar una experiencia argentina de reconocido impacto en procura de atender las necesidades de la población con mayor vulnerabilidad que habita en los espacios rurales. Se trata del Programa Pro Huerta, que desde hace más de veinte años se desarrolla en Argentina y se propuso en el ámbito de este país desde la perspectiva de la cooperación internacional. De este modo, en distintos departamentos de Haiti con el trabajo en conjunto de diversos países ponen en marcha un proyecto social de seguridad alimentaria. La finalidad es el análisis de la territorialización de la experiencia Pro Huerta Haiti a partir del enfoque de cooperación internacional del cual Argentina participa junto con Canadá y Haiti. Entre los resultados y aportes de esta investigación, se pudo constatar que en Haïtí se fortalecen las redes sociales, la familia, el trabajo solidario, la salud y en conjunto contribuyen a fortalecer la soberanía alimentaria, en un país con grandes carencias y gran vulnerabilidad. Asimismo, es interesante resaltar que el modelo de Cooperación Sur-Sur que la Argentina desarrolla, desde una visión horizontal donde nuestro país camina junto a Haití y Canadá en el aprendizaje cotidiano del crecimiento conjunto, donde cada país tiene mucho por seguir aprendiendo

Haiti : The 'invisibility' of a territory to build projects that strengthen their autonomy

Haiti, conocida en la época colonial como 'la Perla de las Antillas', su economía se organizó entorno a la producción de azúcar que proveían a través de Francia al resto de Europa. De este modo 70de la producción de azúcar era consumido en Europa y más del 60del café. Con una lógica que perseguía obtener los máximos rindes, buscaron mano de obra esclava en el África Subsahariana, población que directamente reemplazó a la originaria. Así comienza a plantearse el desarrollo de un tipo de economía en Haiti, que traería graves consecuencias ambientales hasta la actualidad. Hoy es el país más pobre de América, con una esperanza de vida de alrededor de 60 años, y la tasa de analfabetismo del 52. Ubicado en un área tropical, es frecuente que sufra el impacto de las tormentas tropicales y ciclones que, como consecuencia de una tala desmedida de laforestación originaria, las inundaciones acentúan los problemas, a lo que se suman los problemas sanitarios inherentes a un nivel de vida con tantas carencias; y a la preponderancia de minifundios en el área rural, llevan a conformar un escenario de enorme vulnerabilidad. En el año 2010, una triste noticia pondría a Haïti en el centro de la escena mundial: el terremoto de marzo de ese año que afectara el área de Puerto Príncipe dejando alrededor de 300.000 muertos y más de un millón de damnificados. En la actualidad la presencia debarrios enteros viviendo en carpas en espacios públicos, son una expresión de la vigencia de dicho evento. Sin embargo, desde mediados de la década pasada tienen lugar proyectos que intentan territorializar una experiencia argentina de reconocido impacto en procura de atender las necesidades de la población con mayor vulnerabilidad que habita en los espacios rurales. Se trata del Programa Pro Huerta, que desde hace más de veinte años se desarrolla en Argentina y se propuso en el ámbito de este país desde la perspectiva de la cooperación internacional. De este modo, en distintos departamentos de Haiti con el trabajo en conjunto de diversos países ponen en marcha un proyecto social de seguridad alimentaria. La finalidad es el análisis de la territorialización de la experiencia Pro Huerta Haiti a partir del enfoque de cooperación internacional del cual Argentina participa junto con Canadá y Haiti. Entre los resultados y aportes de esta investigación, se pudo constatar que en Haïtí se fortalecen las redes sociales, la familia, el trabajo solidario, la salud y en conjunto contribuyen a fortalecer la soberanía alimentaria, en un país con grandes carencias y gran vulnerabilidad. Asimismo, es interesante resaltar que el modelo de Cooperación Sur-Sur que la Argentina desarrolla, desde una visión horizontal donde nuestro país camina junto a Haití y Canadá en el aprendizaje cotidiano del crecimiento conjunto, donde cada país tiene mucho por seguir aprendiendo

Seasonal and spatial variation in the stable isotopic composition (δ18O and δD) of precipitation in south Florida

Precipitation data collected from five sites in south Florida indicate a strong seasonal and spatial variation in δ18O and δD, despite the relatively limited geographic coverage and low-lying elevation of each of the collection sites. Based upon the weighted-mean stable isotope values, the sites were classified as coastal Atlantic, inland, and lower Florida Keys. The coastal Atlantic sites had weighted-mean values of δ18O and δD of −2.86‰ and −12.8‰, respectively, and exhibited a seasonal variation with lower δ18O and δD values in the summer wet-season precipitation (δ18O = −3.38‰, δD = −16.5‰) as compared to the winter-time precipitation (δ18O = −1.66‰, δD = −3.2‰). The inland site was characterized as having the highest d-excess value (+13.3‰), signifying a contribution of evaporated Everglades surface water to the local atmospheric moisture. In spite of its lower latitude, the lower Keys site located at Long Key had the lowest weighted-mean stable isotope values (δ18O = −3.64‰, δD = −20.2‰) as well as the lowest d-excess value of (+8.8‰). The lower δD and δ18O values observed at the Long Key site reflect the combined effects of oceanic vapor source, fractionation due to local precipitation, and slower equilibration of the larger raindrops nucleated by a maritime aerosol. Very low δ18O and δD values (δ18O < −6‰, δD < −40‰) were observed just prior to the passage of hurricanes from the Gulf of Mexico as well as during cold fronts from the north-west. These results suggest that an oceanic vapor source region to the west, may be responsible for the extremely low δD and δ18O values observed during some tropical storms and cold fronts.

Sediment accretion and organic carbon burial relative to sea-level rise and storm events in two mangrove forests in Everglades National Park

The goal of this investigation was to examine how sediment accretion and organic carbon (OC) burial rates in mangrove forests respond to climate change. Specifically, will the accretion rates keep pace with sea-level rise, and what is the source and fate of OC in the system? Mass accumulation, accretion and OC burial rates were determined via 210Pb dating (i.e. 100 year time scale) on sediment cores collected from two mangrove forest sites within Everglades National Park, Florida (USA). Enhanced mass accumulation, accretion and OC burial rates were found in an upper layer that corresponded to a well-documented storm surge deposit. Accretion rates were 5.9 and 6.5 mm yr− 1 within the storm deposit compared to overall rates of 2.5 and 3.6 mm yr− 1. These rates were found to be matching or exceeding average sea-level rise reported for Key West, Florida. Organic carbon burial rates were 260 and 393 g m− 2 yr− 1 within the storm deposit compared to 151 and 168 g m− 2 yr− 1 overall burial rates. The overall rates are similar to global estimates for OC burial in marine wetlands. With tropical storms being a frequent occurrence in this region the resulting storm surge deposits are an important mechanism for maintaining both overall accretion and OC burial rates. Enhanced OC burial rates within the storm deposit could be due to an increase in productivity created from higher concentrations of phosphorus within storm-delivered sediments and/or from the deposition of allochthonous OC. Climate change-amplified storms and sea-level rise could damage mangrove forests, exposing previously buried OC to oxidation and contribute to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, the processes described here provide a mechanism whereby oxidation of OC would be limited and the overall OC reservoir maintained within the mangrove forest sediments.