Hot spot detection and spatio-temporal dispersion of dengue fever in Hanoi, Vietnam

INTRODUCTION Dengue fever (DF) in Vietnam remains a serious emerging arboviral disease, which generates significant concerns among international health authorities. Incidence rates of DF have increased significantly during the last few years in many provinces and cities, especially Hanoi. The purpose of this study was to detect DF hot spots and identify the disease dynamics dispersion of DF over the period between 2004 and 2009 in Hanoi, Vietnam. METHODS Daily data on DF cases and population data for each postcode area of Hanoi between January 1998 and December 2009 were obtained from the Hanoi Center for Preventive Health and the General Statistic Office of Vietnam. Moran's I statistic was used to assess the spatial autocorrelation of reported DF. Spatial scan statistics and logistic regression were used to identify space-time clusters and dispersion of DF. RESULTS The study revealed a clear trend of geographic expansion of DF transmission in Hanoi through the study periods (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.02-1.34). The spatial scan statistics showed that 6/14 (42.9%) districts in Hanoi had significant cluster patterns, which lasted 29 days and were limited to a radius of 1,000 m. The study also demonstrated that most DF cases occurred between June and November, during which the rainfall and temperatures are highest. CONCLUSIONS There is evidence for the existence of statistically significant clusters of DF in Hanoi, and that the geographical distribution of DF has expanded over recent years. This finding provides a foundation for further investigation into the social and environmental factors responsible for changing disease patterns, and provides data to inform program planning for DF control.

Transfer property of electron pulse in a femto-second electron diffraction system

An ultra-fast electron diffraction system has been designed. The static and dynamic characters of an electron pulse with 150 fs temporal dispersion are studied during its transmission in the whole ultra-fast electron diffraction system, including the size of the electron spot, temporal dispersion, distribution of azimuths and elevation angles. The initial status of the photoelectrons are put down by Monte Carlo method, both the two dimensional and three dimensional electric fields are calculated by finite difference method and the magnetic flux are. calculated by finite element method.

Neurophysiological patterns of ulnar nerve neuropathy in leprosy reactions

Background: Leprosy neuropathy, despite being primarily demyelinating, frequently leads to axonal loss. Neurophysiological examination of the nerves during Type 1 (T1R) and Type 2 reactions (T2R) may give some insight into the pathophysiological mechanisms.Methods: Neurophysiological examinations were performed in 28 ulnar nerves during a clinical trial of steroid treatment effectiveness, 19 patients with T1R and nine with T2R. The nerves were monitored during a period of 6 months; there were eight assessments per nerve, for a total of 224 assessments. Nine neurophysiological parameters were assessed at three sites of the ulnar nerve. The compound motor action potential amplitudes elicited at wrist, elbow and above, as well as the conduction velocity and temporal dispersion across the elbow, were chosen to focus on the changes occurring in the parameters at the elbow tunnel.Results and Conclusion: Neurophysiological changes indicating axonal and demyelinating processes during both T1R and T2R were detected across the elbow. Changes in demyelination, i.e. a Conduction Block, as a primary event present during T2R, occurring as an acute phenomenon, were observed regularly; in T1R Temporal Dispersion, a subacute phenomenon, was seen. During treatment remyelination occurred after both types of reactions.

Early Pancreas Transplant Improves Motor Nerve Conduction in Alloxan-Induced Diabetic Rats

The purpose of this study was to assess the temporal relationship between pancreas transplant and the development of electrophysiological changes in the sciatic and caudal nerves of alloxan-induced diabetic rats. Nerve conduction studies were performed in diabetic rats subjected to pancreas transplantation at 4, 12, and 24 weeks after diabetes onset, using nondiabetic and untreated diabetic rats as controls. Nerve conduction data were significantly altered in untreated diabetic control rats up to 48 weeks of follow-up in all time points. Rats subjected to pancreas transplantation up to 4 and 12 weeks after diabetes onset had significantly increased motor nerve conduction velocity with improvement of wave amplitude, distal latency, and temporal dispersion of compound muscle action potential in all follow-up periods (P<0.05); these parameters remained abnormal when pancreas transplantation were performed late at 24 weeks. Our results suggest that early pancreas transplant (at 4-12 weeks) may be effective in controlling diabetic neuropathy in this in vivo model.

Neuropatia diabética experimental: estudo da condução nervosa motora dos nervos ciático e caudal em ratos com diabetes induzidos pela aloxana

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Non-destructive measurements of the optical properties of apples by means of time-resolved reflectance

Time-resolved reflectance is proposed and effectively used for the nondestructive measurement of the optical properties in apples. The technique is based on the detection of the temporal dispersion of a short laser pulse injected into the probed medium. The time-distribution of re-emitted photons interpreted with a solution of the Diffusion equation yields the mean values of the absorption and reduced scattering coefficients of the medium. The proposed technique proved valuable for the measurement of the absorption and scattering spectra of different varieties of apples. No major variations were observed in the experimental data when the fruit was peeled, proving that the measured optical properties are referred to the pulp. The depth of probed volume was determined to be about 2 cm. Finally, the technique proved capable to follow the change in chlorophyll absorption during storage.

Non-destructive measurements of the optical properties of apples by means of time-resolved reflectance

Time-resolved reflectance is proposed and effectively used for the nondestructive measurement of the optical properties in apples. The technique is based on the detection of the temporal dispersion of a short laser pulse injected into the probed medium. The time-distribution of re-emitted photons interpreted with a solution of the Diffusion equation yields the mean values of the absorption and reduced scattering coefficients of the medium. The proposed technique proved valuable for the measurement of the absorption and scattering spectra of different varieties of apples. No major variations were observed in the experimental data when the fruit was peeled, proving that the measured optical properties are referred to the pulp. The depth of probed volume was determined to be about 2 cm. Finally, the technique proved capable to follow the change in chlorophyll absorption during storage.

Studies on Spatial and Temporal solitons with varying dispersion,diffraction and nonlinearity

Department of Physics, Cochin University of Science and Technology

Stability and convergence of implicit numerical methods for a class of fractional advection-dispersion models

In this paper, a class of fractional advection-dispersion models (FADM) is investigated. These models include five fractional advection-dispersion models: the immobile, mobile/immobile time FADM with a temporal fractional derivative 0 < γ < 1, the space FADM with skewness, both the time and space FADM and the time fractional advection-diffusion-wave model with damping with index 1 < γ < 2. They describe nonlocal dependence on either time or space, or both, to explain the development of anomalous dispersion. These equations can be used to simulate regional-scale anomalous dispersion with heavy tails, for example, the solute transport in watershed catchments and rivers. We propose computationally effective implicit numerical methods for these FADM. The stability and convergence of the implicit numerical methods are analyzed and compared systematically. Finally, some results are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of our theoretical analysis.

On the order of the fractional Laplacian in determining the spatio-temporal evolution of a space-fractional model of cardiac electrophysiology

Space-fractional operators have been used with success in a variety of practical applications to describe transport processes in media characterised by spatial connectivity properties and high structural heterogeneity altering the classical laws of diffusion. This study provides a systematic investigation of the spatio-temporal effects of a space-fractional model in cardiac electrophysiology. We consider a simplified model of electrical pulse propagation through cardiac tissue, namely the monodomain formulation of the Beeler-Reuter cell model on insulated tissue fibres, and obtain a space-fractional modification of the model by using the spectral definition of the one-dimensional continuous fractional Laplacian. The spectral decomposition of the fractional operator allows us to develop an efficient numerical method for the space-fractional problem. Particular attention is paid to the role played by the fractional operator in determining the solution behaviour and to the identification of crucial differences between the non-fractional and the fractional cases. We find a positive linear dependence of the depolarization peak height and a power law decay of notch and dome peak amplitudes for decreasing orders of the fractional operator. Furthermore, we establish a quadratic relationship in conduction velocity, and quantify the increasingly wider action potential foot and more pronounced dispersion of action potential duration, as the fractional order is decreased. A discussion of the physiological interpretation of the presented findings is made.

Reassessing spatial and temporal dynamics of kangaroo populations

Long-running datasets from aerial surveys of kangaroos (Macropus giganteus, Macropus [uliginosus, Macropus robustus and Macropus rufus) across Queensland, New South Wales and South Australia have been analysed, seeking better predictors of rates of increase which would allow aerial surveys to be undertaken less frequently than annually. Early models of changes in kangaroo numbers in response to rainfall had shown great promise, but much variability. We used normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) instead, reasoning that changes in pasture condition would provide a better predictor than rainfall. However, except at a fine scale, NDVI proved no better; although two linked periods of rainfall proved useful predictors of rates of increase, this was only in some areas for some species. The good correlations reported in earlier studies were a consequence of data dominated by large droughtinduced adult mortality, whereas over a longer time frame and where changes between years are less dramatic, juvenile survival has the strongest influence on dynamics. Further, harvesting, density dependence and competition with domestic stock are additional and important influences and it is now clear that kangaroo movement has a greater influence on population dynamics than had been assumed. Accordingly, previous conclusions about kangaroo populations as simple systems driven by rainfall need to be reassessed. Examination of this large dataset has permitted descriptions of shifts in distribution of three species across eastern Australia, changes in dispersion in response to rainfall, and an evaluation of using harvest statistics as an index of density and harvest rate. These results have been combined into a risk assessment and decision theory framework to identify optimal monitoring strategies.

Urban Growth Analysis Using Spatial and Temporal Data

Urban growth identification, quantification, knowledge of rate and the trends of growth would help in regional planning for better infrastructure provision in environmentally sound way. This requires analysis of spatial and temporal data, which help in quantifying the trends of growth on spatial scale. Emerging technologies such as Remote Sensing, Geographic Information System (GIS) along with Global Positioning System (GPS) help in this regard. Remote sensing aids in the collection of temporal data and GIS helps in spatial analysis. This paper focuses on the analysis of urban growth pattern in the form of either radial or linear sprawl along the Bangalore - Mysore highway. Various GIS base layers such as builtup areas along the highway, road network, village boundary etc. were generated using collateral data such as the Survey of India toposheet, etc. Further, this analysis was complemented with the computation of Shannon's entropy, which helped in identifying prevalent sprawl zone, rate of growth and in delineating potential sprawl locations. The computation Shannon's entropy helped in delineating regions with dispersed and compact growth. This study reveals that the Bangalore North and South taluks contributed mainly to the sprawl with 559% increase in built-up area over a period of 28 years and high degree of dispersion. The Mysore and Srirangapatna region showed 128% change in built-up area and a high potential for sprawl with slightly high dispersion. The degree of sprawl was found to be directly proportional to the distances from the cities.

Eddy diffusivity: A single dispersion analysis of high resolution drifters in a tidal shallow estuary

In an estuary, mixing and dispersion resulting from turbulence and small scale fluctuation has strong spatio-temporal variability which cannot be resolved in conventional hydrodynamic models while some models employs parameterizations large water bodies. This paper presents small scale diffusivity estimates from high resolution drifters sampled at 10 Hz for periods of about 4 hours to resolve turbulence and shear diffusivity within a tidal shallow estuary (depth < 3 m). Taylor's diffusion theorem forms the basis of a first order estimate for the diffusivity scale. Diffusivity varied between 0.001 – 0.02 m2/s during the flood tide experiment. The diffusivity showed strong dependence (R2 > 0.9) on the horizontal mean velocity within the channel. Enhanced diffusivity caused by shear dispersion resulting from the interaction of large scale flow with the boundary geometries was observed. Turbulence within the shallow channel showed some similarities with the boundary layer flow which include consistency with slope of 5/3 predicted by Kolmogorov's similarity hypothesis within the inertial subrange. The diffusivities scale locally by 4/3 power law following Okubo's scaling and the length scale scales as 3/2 power law of the time scale. The diffusivity scaling herein suggests that the modelling of small scale mixing within tidal shallow estuaries can be approached from classical turbulence scaling upon identifying pertinent parameters.

Evaluation and modelling of the spatial and temporal variability of particulate matter in urban areas

This thesis contains three subject areas concerning particulate matter in urban area air quality: 1) Analysis of the measured concentrations of particulate matter mass concentrations in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area (HMA) in different locations in relation to traffic sources, and at different times of year and day. 2) The evolution of traffic exhaust originated particulate matter number concentrations and sizes in local street scale are studied by a combination of a dispersion model and an aerosol process model. 3) Some situations of high particulate matter concentrations are analysed with regard to their meteorological origins, especially temperature inversion situations, in the HMA and three other European cities. The prediction of the occurrence of meteorological conditions conducive to elevated particulate matter concentrations in the studied cities is examined. The performance of current numerical weather forecasting models in the case of air pollution episode situations is considered. The study of the ambient measurements revealed clear diurnal variation of the PM10 concentrations in the HMA measurement sites, irrespective of the year and the season of the year. The diurnal variation of local vehicular traffic flows seemed to have no substantial correlation with the PM2.5 concentrations, indicating that the PM10 concentrations were originated mainly from local vehicular traffic (direct emissions and suspension), while the PM2.5 concentrations were mostly of regionally and long-range transported origin. The modelling study of traffic exhaust dispersion and transformation showed that the number concentrations of particles originating from street traffic exhaust undergo a substantial change during the first tens of seconds after being emitted from the vehicle tailpipe. The dilution process was shown to dominate total number concentrations. Minimal effect of both condensation and coagulation was seen in the Aitken mode number concentrations. The included air pollution episodes were chosen on the basis of occurrence in either winter or spring, and having at least partly local origin. In the HMA, air pollution episodes were shown to be linked to predominantly stable atmospheric conditions with high atmospheric pressure and low wind speeds in conjunction with relatively low ambient temperatures. For the other European cities studied, the best meteorological predictors for the elevated concentrations of PM10 were shown to be temporal (hourly) evolutions of temperature inversions, stable atmospheric stability and in some cases, wind speed. Concerning the weather prediction during particulate matter related air pollution episodes, the use of the studied models were found to overpredict pollutant dispersion, leading to underprediction of pollutant concentration levels.