Acknowledging long-term ecological change: the problem of shifting baselines

Shifting baselines describes the phenomenon where long-term changes to an environment go unrecognized because what is perceived as natural shifts with succeeding generations of scientists and other observers. This is a particular problem for the oceans because we are rarely able to directly observe the consequences of human activities. In the absence of data to track these consequences, a common assumption has been that the communities we observe today using SCUBA or other technology, are similar to the communities that existed 10, 100, or even 1000 years ago. Research is increasingly demonstrating this is not the case. Instead, marine ecosystems may have been vastly different in the past, and we have succumbed to the shifting baselines syndrome. This has significant implications for scientific study, management, and for human communities more broadly. We discuss these implications, and how we might address the shifting baseline syndrome in the oceans to confront its repercussions. In a world where environmental degradation is accelerating, doing so is critical to avoid further ratcheting down of our expectations of ecosystem health and productivity, and to ensure that we have the information necessary to implement appropriate recovery and management goals.

The state of coral reef ecosystems of the United States and Pacific Freely Associated States: 2008

In the past decade, increased awareness regarding the declining condition of U.S. coral reefs has prompted various actions by governmental and non-governmental organizations. Presidential Executive Order 13089 created the U.S. Coral Reef Task Force (USCRTF) in 1998 to coordinate federal and state/territorial activities (Clinton, 1998), and the Coral Reef Conservation Act of 2000 provided Congressional funding for activities to conserve these important ecosystems, including mapping, monitoring and assessment projects carried out through the support of NOAA’s CRCP. Numerous collaborations forged among federal agencies and state, local, non-governmental, academic and private partners now support a variety of monitoring activities. This report shares the results of many of these monitoring activities, relying heavily on quantitative, spatially-explicit data that has been collected in the recent past and comparisons with historical data where possible. The success of this effort can be attributed to the dedication of over 270 report contributors who comprised the expert writing teams in the jurisdictions and contributed to the National Level Activities and National Summary chapters. The scope and content of this report are the result of their dedication to this considerable collaborative effort. Ultimately, the goal of this report is to answer the difficult but vital question: what is the condition of U.S. coral reef ecosystems? The report attempts to base a response on the best available science emerging from coral reef ecosystem monitoring programs in 15 jurisdictions across the country. However, few monitoring programs have been in place for longer than a decade, and many have been initiated only within the past two to five years. A few jurisdictions are just beginning to implement monitoring programs and face challenges stemming from a lack of basic habitat maps and other ecosystem data in addition to adequate training, capacity building, and technical support. There is also a general paucity of historical data describing the condition of ecosystem resources before major human impacts occurred, which limits any attempt to present the current conditions within an historical context and contributes to the phenomenon of shifting baselines (Jackson, 1997; Jackson et al., 2001; Pandolfi et al., 2005).

Comparison of methods for assessing in home night time crying in healthy infants

Background. Infant colic is a common condition that is thought to put infants at risk for Shaken Baby Syndrome, a particularly devastating form of child abuse. However, little research has been done on techniques parents can use to deal with infant colic. This pilot study was conducted to assess the equipment that will be used in a randomized control trial that will compare the results for two different techniques that parents can use to reduce crying in infants with colic. ^ Methods. A total of 11 healthy infants, between one and five months of age, were recruited into this pilot study. All infants had a dosimeter, actiwatch and maternal log placed into the home and a subset of infants (N=3) were also recorded by a video camera. The equipment recorded between 6pm and 6am for at least two and up to five nights. The maternal log and video log were compared with one another to determine if the maternal log provides an accurate representation of the infant's night-time activities (i.e. sleep, awake, crying, feeding). The maternal log was then compared to the dosimeter and actiwatch data to determine if the dosimeter/actiwatch accurately reproduce the maternal log. ^ Results. Data from 10 infants were included in the analyses. The maternal log and video log were in full or partial agreement 90% of the time. When comparing events noted by the mother, the maternal log and dosimeter data were in agreement 84% of the time, and the maternal log and actiwatch data were in agreement 87% of the time. In combination, the dosimeter and/or actiwatch data agreed with the maternal log 90% of the time. ^ Conclusions. Our preliminary analyses of these data suggest the dosimeter and actiwatch will be useful tool for defining infant sleep patterns relative to the maternal log. However further analysis will be required to develop threshold values that can be used to objectively define events in the proposed RCT. Such analyses will need to integrate data from multiple dosimeters and deal with the shifting baselines observed for both the dosimeter and actiwatch.^

Setting the record straight: assessing the reliability of retrospective accounts of change

Conservation Letters published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Ecological degradation is accelerating, reducing our ability to detect and reverse declines. Resource user accounts have the potential to provide critical information on past change but their reliability can rarely be tested, hence they are often perceived as less valid than other forms of scientific data. We compared individual fishers' catch records, recorded 1-50 years ago, with their memories of past good, typical and poor catches for the corresponding time period. Good and poor catches were recalled with reasonable accuracy, matching variability in recorded catch with no significant change observed over time. Typical recalled catches were overestimated and became significantly more exaggerated over time, but were more comparable to mean than median recorded values. While accuracy of resource users' memory varied with the type of information recalled, our results suggest that carefully structured interview questions can produce reliable quantitative data to inform resource management, even after several decades have elapsed.

Marine foundation species shifting ranges and genetic baselines

This thesis revealed the most importance factors shaping the distribution, abundance and genetic diversity of four marine foundation species. Environmental conditions, particularly sea temperatures, nutrient availability and ocean waves, played a primary role in shaping the spatial distribution and abundance of populations, acting on scales varying from tens of meters to hundreds of kilometres. Furthermore, the use of Species Distribution Models (SDMs) with biological records of occurrence and high-resolution oceanographic data, allowed predicting species distributions across time. This approach highlighted the role of climate change, particularly when extreme temperatures prevailed during glacial and interglacial periods. These results, when combined with mtDNA and microsatellite genetic variation of populations allowed inferring for the influence of past range dynamics in the genetic diversity and structure of populations. For instance, the Last Glacial Maximum produced important shifts in species ranges, leaving obvious signatures of higher genetic diversities in regions where populations persisted (i.e., refugia). However, it was found that a species’ genetic pool is shaped by regions of persistence, adjacent to others experiencing expansions and contractions. Contradicting expectations, refugia seem to play a minor role on the re(colonization) process of previously eroded populations. In addition, the available habitat area for expanding populations and the inherent mechanisms of species dispersal in occupying available habitats were also found to be fundamental in shaping the distributions of genetic diversity. However, results suggest that the high levels of genetic diversity in some populations do not rule out that they may have experienced strong genetic erosion in the past, a process here named shifting genetic baselines. Furthermore, this thesis predicted an ongoing retraction at the rear edges and extinctions of unique genetic lineages, which will impoverish the global gene pool, strongly shifting the genetic baselines in the future.

“I woke up and realised the ground had shifted”: the shifting terrain of English curriculum

The theme of this conference comes from the epitaph on the Lewis Carroll’s gravesite. “Is All our Life then But A Dream?” This seems fitting for a time when so much change in the terrain of English makes us feel as if we are somnambulating through a surrealist landscape. Like Lewis Carroll’s Alice, (Carroll, 2003) we might find ourselves at strange tea parties with bureaucratic mad hatters, and just when we think we have a grasp of applying new theory in our teaching, we fall down another rabbit hole, to swim in confusion as some queen calls out, ‘off with their heads!’. The shifting ground in English inevitably moves in response to waves of theory influencing classroom practice. Each new paradigm has claimed to liberate language learners from the flaws of the previous model. Each linguist or literary theorist who shaped the new paradigm no doubt dreamt of a new population emerging from school as more powerfully literate citizens than the previous generation.

Shifting the child protection juggernaut to earlier intervention

"For every complex problem there is a solution that is simple, neat and wrong (M.L. Mencken, US writer and social commentator). Nowhere is this quote more apt than when applied to finding over-simplified solutions to the complex problem of looking after the safety and well-being of vulnerable children. The easiest formula is, of course, to ‘rescue children from dysfunctional families’, a line taken recently in the monograph by the right wing think tank, Centre for Independent Studies (Sammut & O’Brien 2009). It is reasoning with fatal flaws. This commentary provides a timely reminder of the strong arguments which lie behind the national and international shift to supporting children and families through universal and specialist community-based services, rather than weighting all resources into statutory child protection interventions. A brief outline of the value of developing the resources to support children in their families, and the problems with 'rescuing' children through the child protection system are discussed.

Beneficial effects of exercise : shifting the focus from body weight to other markers of health

Background: Exercise is widely promoted as a method of weight management, while the other health benefits are often ignored. The purpose of this study was to examine whether exercise-induced improvements in health are influenced by changes in body weight. Methods: Fifty-eight sedentary overweight/obese men and women (BMI 31.8 (SD 4.5) kg/m2) participated in a 12-week supervised aerobic exercise intervention (70% heart rate max, five times a week, 500 kcal per session). Body composition, anthropometric parameters, aerobic capacity, blood pressure and acute psychological response to exercise were measured at weeks 0 and 12. Results: The mean reduction in body weight was −3.3 (3.63) kg (p<0.01). However, 26 of the 58 participants failed to attain the predicted weight loss estimated from individuals’ exercise-induced energy expenditure. Their mean weight loss was only −0.9 (1.8) kg (p<0.01). Despite attaining a lower-than-predicted weight reduction, these individuals experienced significant increases in aerobic capacity (6.3 (6.0) ml/kg/min; p<0.01), and a decreased systolic (−6.00 (11.5) mm Hg; p<0.05) and diastolic blood pressure (−3.9 (5.8) mm Hg; p<0.01), waist circumference (−3.7 (2.7) cm; p<0.01) and resting heart rate (−4.8 (8.9) bpm, p<0.001). In addition, these individuals experienced an acute exercise-induced increase in positive mood. Conclusions: These data demonstrate that significant and meaningful health benefits can be achieved even in the presence of lower-than-expected exercise-induced weight loss. A less successful reduction in body weight does not undermine the beneficial effects of aerobic exercise. From a public health perspective, exercise should be encouraged and the emphasis on weight loss reduced.

Do derivatives have a role in the risk-shifting behaviour of fund managers?

In this paper we examine the extent to which derivatives are used to affect the risk-shifting behaviour of Australian equity fund managers. We find, after periods of good and poor performance, the risk-shifting behaviour of fund managers is different between derivative users and non-users. Our results support the gaming and active competition hypotheses but there is little support for the cash flow hypothesis. The study also allows for a complex reporting environment by analysing data across three alternate time periods: the calendar year, financial year and quarterly frames. Given that our results are not consistent across time periods for users and non-users of derivatives, some caution in interpretation is required.

Shifting interpretations of interiors and buildings: the impact of colour

The ability of a designer – for example, interior designer, architect, landscape architect, etc. – to design for a particular target group (user and/or clients) is potentially enhanced through more targeted studies relating colour in situ. The study outlined in this paper involved participant responses to five achromatic scenes of different built environments prior to viewing the same scenes in colour. Importantly, in this study the participants, who were young designers, came to realise that colour potentially holds the power to impact on the identity of an architectural form, an interior space and/or particular elements such as doorways, furniture settings, etc., as well as influence atmosphere. Prior to discussing the study, a selection of other research, which links colour to meaning and emotions, introduces how people understand and/or feel in relation to colour. For example, yellow is said to be connected to happiness; or red evokes feelings of anger. Secondly, the need for spatial designers to understand colour in context is raised. An overview of the study is then provided. It was found that the impact of colour includes a shift in perception of aspects such as its atmosphere and youthfulness. Through studio/class discussions it was also noted the predicted age of the place, the function, and in association, the potential users when colour was added (or deleted) were often challenged.

Geometry‐specified troposphere decorrelation for subcentimeter real‐time kinematic solutions over long baselines

Real‐time kinematic (RTK) GPS techniques have been extensively developed for applications including surveying, structural monitoring, and machine automation. Limitations of the existing RTK techniques that hinder their applications for geodynamics purposes are twofold: (1) the achievable RTK accuracy is on the level of a few centimeters and the uncertainty of vertical component is 1.5–2 times worse than those of horizontal components and (2) the RTK position uncertainty grows in proportional to the base‐torover distances. The key limiting factor behind the problems is the significant effect of residual tropospheric errors on the positioning solutions, especially on the highly correlated height component. This paper develops the geometry‐specified troposphere decorrelation strategy to achieve the subcentimeter kinematic positioning accuracy in all three components. The key is to set up a relative zenith tropospheric delay (RZTD) parameter to absorb the residual tropospheric effects and to solve the established model as an ill‐posed problem using the regularization method. In order to compute a reasonable regularization parameter to obtain an optimal regularized solution, the covariance matrix of positional parameters estimated without the RZTD parameter, which is characterized by observation geometry, is used to replace the quadratic matrix of their “true” values. As a result, the regularization parameter is adaptively computed with variation of observation geometry. The experiment results show that new method can efficiently alleviate the model’s ill condition and stabilize the solution from a single data epoch. Compared to the results from the conventional least squares method, the new method can improve the longrange RTK solution precision from several centimeters to the subcentimeter in all components. More significantly, the precision of the height component is even higher. Several geosciences applications that require subcentimeter real‐time solutions can largely benefit from the proposed approach, such as monitoring of earthquakes and large dams in real‐time, high‐precision GPS leveling and refinement of the vertical datum. In addition, the high‐resolution RZTD solutions can contribute to effective recovery of tropospheric slant path delays in order to establish a 4‐D troposphere tomography.