An adaptive approach to implementing bivariate group sequential clinical trial designs

In clinical trials, situations often arise where more than one response from each patient is of interest; and it is required that any decision to stop the study be based upon some or all of these measures simultaneously. Theory for the design of sequential experiments with simultaneous bivariate responses is described by Jennison and Turnbull (Jennison, C., Turnbull, B. W. (1993). Group sequential tests for bivariate response: interim analyses of clinical trials with both efficacy and safety endpoints. Biometrics 49:741-752) and Cook and Farewell (Cook, R. J., Farewell, V. T. (1994). Guidelines for monitoring efficacy and toxicity responses in clinical trials. Biometrics 50:1146-1152) in the context of one efficacy and one safety response. These expositions are in terms of normally distributed data with known covariance. The methods proposed require specification of the correlation, ρ between test statistics monitored as part of the sequential test. It can be difficult to quantify ρ and previous authors have suggested simply taking the lowest plausible value, as this will guarantee power. This paper begins with an illustration of the effect that inappropriate specification of ρ can have on the preservation of trial error rates. It is shown that both the type I error and the power can be adversely affected. As a possible solution to this problem, formulas are provided for the calculation of correlation from data collected as part of the trial. An adaptive approach is proposed and evaluated that makes use of these formulas and an example is provided to illustrate the method. Attention is restricted to the bivariate case for ease of computation, although the formulas derived are applicable in the general multivariate case.

Bringing game theory to hypothesis testing: Establishing finite sample bounds on inference

Small sample properties are of fundamental interest when only limited data is avail-able. Exact inference is limited by constraints imposed by speci.c nonrandomizedtests and of course also by lack of more data. These e¤ects can be separated as we propose to evaluate a test by comparing its type II error to the minimal type II error among all tests for the given sample. Game theory is used to establish this minimal type II error, the associated randomized test is characterized as part of a Nash equilibrium of a .ctitious game against nature.We use this method to investigate sequential tests for the di¤erence between twomeans when outcomes are constrained to belong to a given bounded set. Tests ofinequality and of noninferiority are included. We .nd that inference in terms oftype II error based on a balanced sample cannot be improved by sequential sampling or even by observing counter factual evidence providing there is a reasonable gap between the hypotheses.

Emergência de classes seqüenciais após treino com pareamento consistente

Relações de ordem podem ser documentadas por meio de testes comportamentais através das propriedades de assimetria, transitividade e conectividade. A emergência de classes seqüenciais pode ser estabelecidas de diferentes maneiras, inclusive a partir do matching to sample com pareamento consistente de estímulos e sem conseqüências imediatas. O presente estudo buscou verificar o efeito do treino com pareamento consistente entre estímulos visuais sobre desempenhos emergentes. Cinco universitários de ambos os sexos foram submetidos ao treino das relações condicionais AB, AC e AD. A tarefa dos participantes era responder ordinalmente a dígitos e formas geométricas abstratas. Em seguida, os participantes foram expostos a testes para ordenação de três seqüências diferentes com cinco estímulos. Três participantes alcançaram o critério de acerto e apresentaram um responder consistente nos testes. Os resultados indicaram que o treino foi efetivo no estabelecimento de relações de ordem entre estímulos e replicam dados da literatura no estabelecimento de desempenho seqüencial após treino com matching to sample.

Corrositex®, BCOP and HET-CAM as alternative methods to animal experimentation

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Intrauterine instillation of diluted seminal plasma at oocyte pick-up does not increase the IVF pregnancy rate: a double-blind, placebo controlled, randomized study.

STUDY QUESTION Does intrauterine application of diluted seminal plasma (SP) at the time of ovum pick-up improve the pregnancy rate by ≥14% in IVF treatment? SUMMARY ANSWER Intrauterine instillation of diluted SP at the time of ovum pick-up is unlikely to increase the pregnancy rate by ≥14% in IVF. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY SP modulates endometrial function, and sexual intercourse around the time of embryo transfer has been suggested to increase the likelihood of pregnancy. A previous randomized double-blind pilot study demonstrated a strong trend towards increased pregnancy rates following the intracervical application of undiluted SP. As this study was not conclusive and as the finding could have been confounded by sexual intercourse, the intrauterine application of diluted SP was investigated in the present trial. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION A single-centre, prospective, double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized, superiority trial on women undergoing IVF was conducted from April 2007 until February 2012 at the University Department of Gynaecological Endocrinology and Reproductive Medicine, Heidelberg, Germany. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS The study was powered to detect an 14% increase in the clinical pregnancy rate and two sequential tests were planned using the Pocock spending function. At the first interim analysis, 279 women had been randomly assigned to intrauterine diluted SP (20% SP in saline from the patients' partner) (n = 138) or placebo (n = 141) at the time of ovum pick-up. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE The clinical pregnancy rate per randomized patient was 37/138 (26.8%) in the SP group and 41/141 (29.1%) in the placebo group (difference: -2.3%, 95% confidence interval of the difference: -12.7 to +8.2%; P = 0.69). The live birth rate per randomized patient was 28/138 (20.3%) in the SP group and 33/141 (23.4%) in the placebo group (difference: -3.1%, 95% confidence interval of the difference: -12.7 to +6.6%; P = 0.56). It was decided to terminate the trial due to futility at the first interim analysis, at a conditional power of 62%. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION The confidence interval of the difference remains wide, thus clinically relevant differences cannot reliably be excluded based on this single study. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS The results of this study cast doubt on the validity of the concept that SP increases endometrial receptivity and thus implantation in humans. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) Funding was provided by the department's own research facilities. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER DRKS00004615.

Suboptimal Multistage Nonparametric Hypotheses Test

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62L10, 62L15.

Using interaction data for improving the offline and online evaluation of search engines

This thesis investigates how web search evaluation can be improved using historical interaction data. Modern search engines combine offline and online evaluation approaches in a sequence of steps that a tested change needs to pass through to be accepted as an improvement and subsequently deployed. We refer to such a sequence of steps as an evaluation pipeline. In this thesis, we consider the evaluation pipeline to contain three sequential steps: an offline evaluation step, an online evaluation scheduling step, and an online evaluation step. In this thesis we show that historical user interaction data can aid in improving the accuracy or efficiency of each of the steps of the web search evaluation pipeline. As a result of these improvements, the overall efficiency of the entire evaluation pipeline is increased. Firstly, we investigate how user interaction data can be used to build accurate offline evaluation methods for query auto-completion mechanisms. We propose a family of offline evaluation metrics for query auto-completion that represents the effort the user has to spend in order to submit their query. The parameters of our proposed metrics are trained against a set of user interactions recorded in the search engine’s query logs. From our experimental study, we observe that our proposed metrics are significantly more correlated with an online user satisfaction indicator than the metrics proposed in the existing literature. Hence, fewer changes will pass the offline evaluation step to be rejected after the online evaluation step. As a result, this would allow us to achieve a higher efficiency of the entire evaluation pipeline. Secondly, we state the problem of the optimised scheduling of online experiments. We tackle this problem by considering a greedy scheduler that prioritises the evaluation queue according to the predicted likelihood of success of a particular experiment. This predictor is trained on a set of online experiments, and uses a diverse set of features to represent an online experiment. Our study demonstrates that a higher number of successful experiments per unit of time can be achieved by deploying such a scheduler on the second step of the evaluation pipeline. Consequently, we argue that the efficiency of the evaluation pipeline can be increased. Next, to improve the efficiency of the online evaluation step, we propose the Generalised Team Draft interleaving framework. Generalised Team Draft considers both the interleaving policy (how often a particular combination of results is shown) and click scoring (how important each click is) as parameters in a data-driven optimisation of the interleaving sensitivity. Further, Generalised Team Draft is applicable beyond domains with a list-based representation of results, i.e. in domains with a grid-based representation, such as image search. Our study using datasets of interleaving experiments performed both in document and image search domains demonstrates that Generalised Team Draft achieves the highest sensitivity. A higher sensitivity indicates that the interleaving experiments can be deployed for a shorter period of time or use a smaller sample of users. Importantly, Generalised Team Draft optimises the interleaving parameters w.r.t. historical interaction data recorded in the interleaving experiments. Finally, we propose to apply the sequential testing methods to reduce the mean deployment time for the interleaving experiments. We adapt two sequential tests for the interleaving experimentation. We demonstrate that one can achieve a significant decrease in experiment duration by using such sequential testing methods. The highest efficiency is achieved by the sequential tests that adjust their stopping thresholds using historical interaction data recorded in diagnostic experiments. Our further experimental study demonstrates that cumulative gains in the online experimentation efficiency can be achieved by combining the interleaving sensitivity optimisation approaches, including Generalised Team Draft, and the sequential testing approaches. Overall, the central contributions of this thesis are the proposed approaches to improve the accuracy or efficiency of the steps of the evaluation pipeline: the offline evaluation frameworks for the query auto-completion, an approach for the optimised scheduling of online experiments, a general framework for the efficient online interleaving evaluation, and a sequential testing approach for the online search evaluation. The experiments in this thesis are based on massive real-life datasets obtained from Yandex, a leading commercial search engine. These experiments demonstrate the potential of the proposed approaches to improve the efficiency of the evaluation pipeline.

The effect of consumption volume on profile and liking of oral nutritional supplements of varied sweetness: sequential profiling and boredom tests

Oral nutrition supplements (ONS) are routinely prescribed to those with, or at risk of, malnutrition. Previous research identified poor compliance due to taste and sweetness. This paper investigates taste and hedonic liking of ONS, of varying sweetness and metallic levels, over consumption volume; an important consideration as patients are prescribed large volumes of ONS daily. A sequential descriptive profile was developed to determine the perception of sensory attributes over repeat consumption of ONS. Changes in liking of ONS following repeat consumption were characterised by a boredom test. Certain flavour (metallic taste, soya milk flavour) and mouthfeel (mouthdrying, mouthcoating) attributes built up over increased consumption volume (p 0.002). Hedonic liking data from two cohorts, healthy older volunteers (n = 32, median age 73) and patients (n = 28, median age 85), suggested such build-up was disliked. Efforts made to improve the palatability of ONS must take account of the build up of taste and mouthfeel characteristics over increased consumption volume.

Development of a flow through photo-reactor to study degradation of organic compounds by Sequential Injection Analysis (SIA)

This work describes a photo-reactor to perform in line degradation of organic compounds by photo-Fenton reaction using Sequential Injection Analysis (SIA) system. A copper phthalocyanine-3,4',4²,4²¢-tetrasulfonic acid tetrasodium salt dye solution was used as a model compound for the phthalocyanine family, whose pigments have a large use in automotive coatings industry. Based on preliminary tests, 97% of color removal was obtained from a solution containing 20 µmol L-1 of this dye.

Hypothalamic-pituitary axis and peripheral tissue responses to TRH stimulation and Liothyronine suppression tests in normal subjects evaluated by current methods

Objective: To reevaluate the responses of thyrotropin-releasing hormone ( TRH) stimulation test in baseline condition as well as after the administration of graded supraphysiological doses of liothyronine ( L- T-3) in normal subjects. Design: To assess various parameters related to the hypothalamic-pituitary axis and peripheral tissue responses to L- T-3 in 22 normal individuals ( median age: 30.5 years). Subjects were submitted to an intravenous TRH test at baseline condition and also to the oral administration of sequential and graded doses of L- T-3 ( 50, 100, and 200 mu g/day), each given over 3 days, at an outpatient clinic. Blood samples were obtained for thyrotropin (TSH) and prolactin (PRL) at basal and then 15, 30, and 60 minutes after the TRH injection. Effects of L- T3 administration on cholesterol, creatine kinase, retinol, ferritin, and sex hormone-binding globulin ( SHBG) were also measured at basal and after the oral administration of L- T-3. Main outcome: TRH administration resulted in an increase of 4-to 14-fold rise in serum TSH ( 8.3 +/- 2.5-fold), and in a slight rise in serum PRL concentrations ( 3.8 +/- 1.5-fold). Administration of graded doses of triiodothyronine ( T-3) resulted in a dose-dependent suppression of TSH and PRL. Basal thyroxine- binding globulin (TBG) and cholesterol levels decreased, and ferritin and SHBG increased after L- T-3 administration, while creatine kinase and retinol did not change throughout the study. There was a positive correlation between basal TSH and TSH peak response to TRH at basal condition and after each sequential L- T-3 doses. On the other hand, TSH peak response to the TRH test did not predict cholesterol, TBG, ferritin, or SHBG values. Conclusion: Using the current methods on hormone and biochemical analysis, we standardized the response of many parameters to TRH stimulation test after sequential and graded T-3 suppression test in normal subjects. Our data suggest that the evaluation of the responses of the hypothalamus-pituitary axis to TRH test as well as the impact of L- T-3 on peripheral tissues were not modified by the current methods.

Welfare comparisons: sequential procedures for heterogenous populations

Some analysts use sequential dominance criteria, and others use equivalence scales in combination with non-sequential dominance tests, to make welfare comparisons of oint distributions of income and needs. In this paper we present a new sequential procedure hich copes with situations in which sequential dominance fails. We also demonstrate that there commendations deriving from the sequential approach are valid for distributions of equivalent income whatever equivalence scale the analyst might adopt. Thus the paper marries together the sequential and equivalizing approaches, seen as alternatives in much previous literature. All results are specified in forms which allow for demographic differences in the populations being compared.

Hydrogeophysical data integration at larger scales: Application of Bayesian sequential simulation for the characterization of heterogeneous alluvial aquifers

Knowledge of the spatial distribution of hydraulic conductivity (K) within an aquifer is critical for reliable predictions of solute transport and the development of effective groundwater management and/or remediation strategies. While core analyses and hydraulic logging can provide highly detailed information, such information is inherently localized around boreholes that tend to be sparsely distributed throughout the aquifer volume. Conversely, larger-scale hydraulic experiments like pumping and tracer tests provide relatively low-resolution estimates of K in the investigated subsurface region. As a result, traditional hydrogeological measurement techniques contain a gap in terms of spatial resolution and coverage, and they are often alone inadequate for characterizing heterogeneous aquifers. Geophysical methods have the potential to bridge this gap. The recent increased interest in the application of geophysical methods to hydrogeological problems is clearly evidenced by the formation and rapid growth of the domain of hydrogeophysics over the past decade (e.g., Rubin and Hubbard, 2005).

Sequential analysis of trans-SNARE formation in intracellular membrane fusion.

SNARE complexes are required for membrane fusion in the endomembrane system. They contain coiled-coil bundles of four helices, three (Q(a), Q(b), and Q(c)) from target (t)-SNAREs and one (R) from the vesicular (v)-SNARE. NSF/Sec18 disrupts these cis-SNARE complexes, allowing reassembly of their subunits into trans-SNARE complexes and subsequent fusion. Studying these reactions in native yeast vacuoles, we found that NSF/Sec18 activates the vacuolar cis-SNARE complex by selectively displacing the vacuolar Q(a) SNARE, leaving behind a Q(bc)R subcomplex. This subcomplex serves as an acceptor for a Q(a) SNARE from the opposite membrane, leading to Q(a)-Q(bc)R trans-complexes. Activity tests of vacuoles with diagnostic distributions of inactivating mutations over the two fusion partners confirm that this distribution accounts for a major share of the fusion activity. The persistence of the Q(bc)R cis-complex and the formation of the Q(a)-Q(bc)R trans-complex are both sensitive to the Rab-GTPase inhibitor, GDI, and to mutations in the vacuolar tether complex, HOPS (HOmotypic fusion and vacuolar Protein Sorting complex). This suggests that the vacuolar Rab-GTPase, Ypt7, and HOPS restrict cis-SNARE disassembly and thereby bias trans-SNARE assembly into a preferred topology.

Non-invasive detection of coronary endothelial response to sequential handgrip exercise in coronary artery disease patients and healthy adults.

OBJECTIVES: Our objective is to test the hypothesis that coronary endothelial function (CorEndoFx) does not change with repeated isometric handgrip (IHG) stress in CAD patients or healthy subjects. BACKGROUND: Coronary responses to endothelial-dependent stressors are important measures of vascular risk that can change in response to environmental stimuli or pharmacologic interventions. The evaluation of the effect of an acute intervention on endothelial response is only valid if the measurement does not change significantly in the short term under normal conditions. Using 3.0 Tesla (T) MRI, we non-invasively compared two coronary artery endothelial function measurements separated by a ten minute interval in healthy subjects and patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). METHODS: Twenty healthy adult subjects and 12 CAD patients were studied on a commercial 3.0 T whole-body MR imaging system. Coronary cross-sectional area (CSA), peak diastolic coronary flow velocity (PDFV) and blood-flow were quantified before and during continuous IHG stress, an endothelial-dependent stressor. The IHG exercise with imaging was repeated after a 10 minute recovery period. RESULTS: In healthy adults, coronary artery CSA changes and blood-flow increases did not differ between the first and second stresses (mean % change ±SEM, first vs. second stress CSA: 14.8%±3.3% vs. 17.8%±3.6%, p = 0.24; PDFV: 27.5%±4.9% vs. 24.2%±4.5%, p = 0.54; blood-flow: 44.3%±8.3 vs. 44.8%±8.1, p = 0.84). The coronary vasoreactive responses in the CAD patients also did not differ between the first and second stresses (mean % change ±SEM, first stress vs. second stress: CSA: -6.4%±2.0% vs. -5.0%±2.4%, p = 0.22; PDFV: -4.0%±4.6% vs. -4.2%±5.3%, p = 0.83; blood-flow: -9.7%±5.1% vs. -8.7%±6.3%, p = 0.38). CONCLUSION: MRI measures of CorEndoFx are unchanged during repeated isometric handgrip exercise tests in CAD patients and healthy adults. These findings demonstrate the repeatability of noninvasive 3T MRI assessment of CorEndoFx and support its use in future studies designed to determine the effects of acute interventions on coronary vasoreactivity.