Determining the season of death from the family composition of insects infesting carrion

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Snow shielding factors for cosmogenic nuclide dating inferred from long-term neutron detector monitoring

The depth-dependent attenuation of the secondary cosmic-ray particle flux due to snow cover and its effects on production rates of cosmogenic nuclides constitutes a potential source of uncertainty for studies conducted in regions characterized by frequent seasonal snow burial. Recent experimental and numerical modelling studies have yielded new constraints on the effect of hydrogen-rich media on the production rates of cosmogenic nuclides by low- and high-energy neutrons (<10(-3) MeV and >10(2) MeV, respectively). Here we present long-term neutron-detector monitoring data from a natural setting that we use to quantify the effect of snow cover on the attenuation of fast neutrons (0.1-10 MeV), which are responsible for the production of Ne-21 from Mg and Cl-36 from K. We use data measured between July 2001 and May 2008 at seven stations located throughout the Ecrins-Pelvoux massif (French Western Alps) and its surroundings, at elevations ranging from 200 to 2500 m a.s.l. From the cosmic-ray fluxes recorded during summer, when snow is absent, we infer an apparent attenuation length of 148 g cm(-2) in the atmosphere at a latitude of similar to 45 degrees N and for altitudes ranging from similar to 200 to 2500 m a.s.l. Using snow water-equivalent (SWE) values obtained through snow-coring campaigns that overlap in time the neutron monitoring for five stations, we show that fast neutrons are much more strongly attenuated in snow than predicted by a conventional mass-shielding formulation and the attenuation length estimated in the atmosphere. We suggest that such strong attenuation results from boundary effects at the atmosphere/snow interface induced by the high efficiency of water as a neutron moderator. Finally, we propose an empirical model that allows calculating snow-shielding correction factors as a function of SWE for studies using Ne-21 and Cl-36 analyses in Mg- and K-rich minerals, respectively. This empirical model is of interest for studies with a focus on cosmic-ray exposure dating, particularly if the target rocks are made up of mafic to ultramafic units where seasonal snow-cover is a common phenomenon.

Radiocarbon dating and alkenone-based proxies of sediment core GeoB7702-3

In this study we utilize two organic geochemical proxies, the Uk'37 index and TEX86, to examine past sea surface temperatures (SST) from a site located near the Nile River Delta in the eastern Mediterranean (EM) Sea. The Uk'37 and TEX86 records generally are in agreement and indicate SST ranges of 14°C-26°C and 14°C-28°C, respectively, during the last 27 cal ka. During the Holocene, TEX86-based SST estimates are usually higher than Uk'37-based SST estimates, which is likely due to seasonal differences between the timing of the haptophyte and crenarchaeota blooms in the EM and is related to the onset of the modern flow regime of the Nile River. Both records show that SST varied on centennial to millennial timescales in response to global climate events, i.e., cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), Heinrich event 1 (H1), and the Younger Dryas (YD) and warming during the Bølling-Allerød and in the early Holocene during deposition of sapropel S1. The H1 cooling was particularly severe and is marked by a drop in SST of ~4.5°C in comparison to pre-H1 SST, with temperatures >1°C cooler than during the LGM. In contrast to high-latitude and western Mediterranean records, which indicate both an abrupt onset and termination of the YD event, the transition from the YD to the Holocene was much more gradual in the EM.

Seasonal activity and abundance of Orosius orientalis (Hemiptera : Cicadellidae) at agricultural sites in Southeastern Australia

Orosius orientalis is a leafhopper vector of several viruses and phytoplasmas affecting a broad range of agricultural crops. Sweep net, yellow pan trap and yellow sticky trap collection techniques were evaluated. Seasonal distribution of O. orientalis was surveyed over two successive growing seasons around the borders of commercially grown tobacco crops. Orosius orientalis seasonal activity as assessed using pan and sticky traps was characterised by a trimodal peak and relative abundance as assessed using sweep nets differed between field sites with peak activity occurring in spring and summer months. Yellow pan traps consistently trapped a higher number of O. orientalis than yellow sticky traps.

A comparison of two business cycle dating methods

We study the suggestion that Markov switching (MS) models should be used to determine cyclical turning points. A Kalman filter approximation is used to derive the dating rules implicit in such models. We compare these with dating rules in an algorithm that provides a good approximation to the chronology determined by the NBER. We find that there is very little that is attractive in the MS approach when compared with this algorithm. The most important difference relates to robustness. The MS approach depends on the validity of that statistical model. Our approach is valid in a wider range of circumstances.

Analysing Seasonal Health Data

Seasonal patterns have been found in a remarkable range of health conditions, including birth defects, respiratory infections and cardiovascular disease. Accurately estimating the size and timing of seasonal peaks in disease incidence is an aid to understanding the causes and possibly to developing interventions. With global warming increasing the intensity of seasonal weather patterns around the world, a review of the methods for estimating seasonal effects on health is timely. This is the first book on statistical methods for seasonal data written for a health audience. It describes methods for a range of outcomes (including continuous, count and binomial data) and demonstrates appropriate techniques for summarising and modelling these data. It has a practical focus and uses interesting examples to motivate and illustrate the methods. The statistical procedures and example data sets are available in an R package called ‘season’. Adrian Barnett is a senior research fellow at Queensland University of Technology, Australia. Annette Dobson is a Professor of Biostatistics at The University of Queensland, Australia. Both are experienced medical statisticians with a commitment to statistical education and have previously collaborated in research in the methodological developments and applications of biostatistics, especially to time series data. Among other projects, they worked together on revising the well-known textbook "An Introduction to Generalized Linear Models," third edition, Chapman Hall/CRC, 2008. In their new book they share their knowledge of statistical methods for examining seasonal patterns in health.

Dating and intimacy in the 21st century : the use of online dating sites in Australia

This article examines the growing phenomenon of online dating and intimacy in the 21st century. The exponential rise of communications technologies, which is both reflective and constitutive of an increasingly networked and globalized society, has the potential to significantly influence the nature of intimacy in everyday life. Yet, to date, there has been a minimal response by sociologists to seek, describe and understand this influence. In this article, we present some of the key findings of our research on online dating in Australia, in order to foster a debate about the sociological impacts on intimacy in the postmodern world. Based on a web audit of more than 60 online dating sites and in-depth interviews with 23 users of online dating services, we argue that recent global trends are influencing the uptake of online technologies for the purposes of forming intimate relations. Further, some of the mediating effects of these technologies – in particular, the hypercommunication – may have specific implications for the nature of intimacy in the global era.

Getting it [on]line : sociological implications of e-dating

This article explores the role of sociology in understanding the phenomenon of online dating. Based on an examination of our qualitative study of 23 online daters, combined with the findings of the small number of other empirical studies available, we argue that further sociological consideration of the online dating phenomenon is required to: illuminate the social conditions informing these activities; enhance knowledge of if, and how, online technologies mediate intimate connections; and advance a critically informed understanding of the nature of intimacy in a global era.

Seasonal Variation in Measured Solar Ultraviolet Radiation Exposure of Adults in Subtropical Australia

Generating accurate population-specific public health messages regarding sun protection requires knowledge about seasonal variation in sun exposure in different environments. To address this issue for a subtropical area of Australia, we used polysulphone badges to measure UVR for the township of Nambour (26° latitude) and personal UVR exposure among Nambour residents who were taking part in a skin cancer prevention trial. Badges were worn by participants for two winter and two summer days. The ambient UVR was approximately three times as high in summer as in winter. However, participants received more than twice the proportion of available UVR in winter as in summer (6.5%vs 2.7%, P < 0.05), resulting in an average ratio of summer to winter personal UVR exposure of 1.35. The average absolute difference in daily dose between summer and winter was only one-seventh of a minimal erythemal dose. Extrapolating from our data, we estimate that ca. 42% of the total exposure received in the 6 months of winter (June–August) and summer (December–February) is received during the three winter months. Our data show that in Queensland a substantial proportion of people’s annual UVR dose is obtained in winter, underscoring the need for dissemination of sun protection messages throughout the year in subtropical and tropical climates.

The seasonal phenology of Bactrocera tryoni (Froggatt) (Diptera: Tephritidae) in Queensland

Bactrocera tryoni is a polyphagous fruit fly, originally endemic to tropical and subtropical coastal eastern Australia, but now also widely distributed in temperate eastern Australia. In temperate parts of its range, B. tryoni populations show distinct seasonal peaks driven by changing seasonal climates, especially changing temperature. In contrast to temperate areas, the seasonal phenology of B. tryoni in subtropical and tropical parts of its range is poorly documented and the role of climate unknown. Using a large, historical (1940s and 1950s) fruit fly trapping data set, we present the seasonal phenology of B. tryoni at nine sites across Queensland for multiple (two to seven) years per site. We correlate monthly trap data for each site with monthly weather averages (temperature, rainfall and relative humidity) to investigate climatic influences. We also correlate observed population data with predicted population data generated by an existing B. tryoni population model. Supporting predictions from climate driven models, B. tryoni did show year-round breeding at most Queensland sites. However, contrary to predictions, there was a common pattern of a significant population decline in autumn and winter, followed by a rapid population increase in August and then one or more distinct peaks of abundance in spring and summer. Mean monthly fly abundance was significantly different across sites, but was not correlated with altitudinal, latitudinal or longitudinal gradients. There were very few significant correlations between monthly fly population size and weather variables for eight of the nine sites. For the southern site of Gatton fly population abundance was correlated with temperature. Results suggest that while climate factors may be influencing B. tryoni populations in southern subtropical Queensland, they appear to be having only minor or no influence in northern sub-tropical and tropical Queensland. In the discussion we focus on the role of other factors, particularly larval host plant availability, as likely drivers of B. tryoni abundance in tropical and subtropical parts of its range.

A social matching system for an online dating network : a preliminary study

Due to the change in attitudes and lifestyles, people expect to find new partners and friends via various ways now-a-days. Online dating networks create a network for people to meet each other and allow making contact with different objectives of developing a personal, romantic or sexual relationship. Due to the higher expectation of users, online matching companies are trying to adopt recommender systems. However, the existing recommendation techniques such as content-based, collaborative filtering or hybrid techniques focus on users explicit contact behaviors but ignore the implicit relationship among users in the network. This paper proposes a social matching system that uses past relations and user similarities in finding potential matches. The proposed system is evaluated on the dataset collected from an online dating network. Empirical analysis shows that the recommendation success rate has increased to 31% as compared to the baseline success rate of 19%.