Challenges in quantifying changes in the global water cycle

Understanding observed changes to the global water cycle is key to predicting future climate changes and their impacts. While many datasets document crucial variables such as precipitation, ocean salinity, runoff, and humidity, most are uncertain for determining long-term changes. In situ networks provide long time-series over land but are sparse in many regions, particularly the tropics. Satellite and reanalysis datasets provide global coverage, but their long-term stability is lacking. However, comparisons of changes among related variables can give insights into the robustness of observed changes. For example, ocean salinity, interpreted with an understanding of ocean processes, can help cross-validate precipitation. Observational evidence for human influences on the water cycle is emerging, but uncertainties resulting from internal variability and observational errors are too large to determine whether the observed and simulated changes are consistent. Improvements to the in situ and satellite observing networks that monitor the changing water cycle are required, yet continued data coverage is threatened by funding reductions. Uncertainty both in the role of anthropogenic aerosols, and due to large climate variability presently limits confidence in attribution of observed changes.

Anthropometry profiles of elite rugby players: quantifying changes in lean mass

Objective: To demonstrate the utility of a practical measure of lean mass for monitoring changes in the body composition of athletes. Methods: Between 1999 and 2003 body mass and sum of seven skinfolds were recorded for 40 forwards and 32 backs from one Super 12 rugby union franchise. Players were assessed on 13 (7) occasions ( mean (SD)) over 1.9 (1.3) years. Mixed modelling of log transformed variables provided a lean mass index (LMI) of the form mass/skinfolds(x), for monitoring changes in mass controlled for changes in skinfold thickness. Mean effects of phase of season and time in programme were modelled as percentage changes. Effects were standardised for interpretation of magnitudes. Results: The exponent x was 0.13 for forwards and 0.14 for backs ( 90% confidence limits +/- 0.03). The forwards had a small decrease in skinfolds ( 5.3%, 90% confidence limits +/- 2.2%) between preseason and competition phases, and a small increase ( 7.8%, 90% confidence limits +/- 3.1%) during the club season. A small decrease in LMI (similar to 1.5%) occurred after one year in the programme for forwards and backs, whereas increases in skinfolds for forwards became substantial (4.3%, 90% confidence limits +/- 2.2%) after three years. Individual variation in body composition was small within a season (within subject SD: body mass, 1.6%; skinfolds, 6.8%; LMI, 1.1%) and somewhat greater for body mass (2.1%) and LMI (1.7%) between seasons. Conclusions: Despite a lack of substantial mean changes, there was substantial individual variation in lean mass within and between seasons. An index of lean mass based

Fast Retinal Vessel Detection and Measurement Using Wavelets and Edge Location Refinement

The relationship between changes in retinal vessel morphology and the onset and progression of diseases such as diabetes, hypertension and retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) has been the subject of several large scale clinical studies. However, the difficulty of quantifying changes in retinal vessels in a sufficiently fast, accurate and repeatable manner has restricted the application of the insights gleaned from these studies to clinical practice. This paper presents a novel algorithm for the efficient detection and measurement of retinal vessels, which is general enough that it can be applied to both low and high resolution fundus photographs and fluorescein angiograms upon the adjustment of only a few intuitive parameters. Firstly, we describe the simple vessel segmentation strategy, formulated in the language of wavelets, that is used for fast vessel detection. When validated using a publicly available database of retinal images, this segmentation achieves a true positive rate of 70.27%, false positive rate of 2.83%, and accuracy score of 0.9371. Vessel edges are then more precisely localised using image profiles computed perpendicularly across a spline fit of each detected vessel centreline, so that both local and global changes in vessel diameter can be readily quantified. Using a second image database, we show that the diameters output by our algorithm display good agreement with the manual measurements made by three independent observers. We conclude that the improved speed and generality offered by our algorithm are achieved without sacrificing accuracy. The algorithm is implemented in MATLAB along with a graphical user interface, and we have made the source code freely available. 

Ocean heat content variability and change in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses

Accurate knowledge of the location and magnitude of ocean heat content (OHC) variability and change is essential for understanding the processes that govern decadal variations in surface temperature, quantifying changes in the planetary energy budget, and developing constraints on the transient climate response to external forcings. We present an overview of the temporal and spatial characteristics of OHC variability and change as represented by an ensemble of dynamical and statistical ocean reanalyses (ORAs). Spatial maps of the 0–300 m layer show large regions of the Pacific and Indian Oceans where the interannual variability of the ensemble mean exceeds ensemble spread, indicating that OHC variations are well-constrained by the available observations over the period 1993–2009. At deeper levels, the ORAs are less well-constrained by observations with the largest differences across the ensemble mostly associated with areas of high eddy kinetic energy, such as the Southern Ocean and boundary current regions. Spatial patterns of OHC change for the period 1997–2009 show good agreement in the upper 300 m and are characterized by a strong dipole pattern in the Pacific Ocean. There is less agreement in the patterns of change at deeper levels, potentially linked to differences in the representation of ocean dynamics, such as water mass formation processes. However, the Atlantic and Southern Oceans are regions in which many ORAs show widespread warming below 700 m over the period 1997–2009. Annual time series of global and hemispheric OHC change for 0–700 m show the largest spread for the data sparse Southern Hemisphere and a number of ORAs seem to be subject to large initialization ‘shock’ over the first few years. In agreement with previous studies, a number of ORAs exhibit enhanced ocean heat uptake below 300 and 700 m during the mid-1990s or early 2000s. The ORA ensemble mean (±1 standard deviation) of rolling 5-year trends in full-depth OHC shows a relatively steady heat uptake of approximately 0.9 ± 0.8 W m−2 (expressed relative to Earth’s surface area) between 1995 and 2002, which reduces to about 0.2 ± 0.6 W m−2 between 2004 and 2006, in qualitative agreement with recent analysis of Earth’s energy imbalance. There is a marked reduction in the ensemble spread of OHC trends below 300 m as the Argo profiling float observations become available in the early 2000s. In general, we suggest that ORAs should be treated with caution when employed to understand past ocean warming trends—especially when considering the deeper ocean where there is little in the way of observational constraints. The current work emphasizes the need to better observe the deep ocean, both for providing observational constraints for future ocean state estimation efforts and also to develop improved models and data assimilation methods.

International validation of a behavioral scale in Parkinson's disease without dementia.

The "Ardouin Scale of Behavior in Parkinson's Disease" is a new instrument specifically designed for assessing mood and behavior with a view to quantifying changes related to Parkinson's disease, to dopaminergic medication, and to non-motor fluctuations. This study was aimed at analyzing the psychometric attributes of this scale in patients with Parkinson's disease without dementia. In addition to this scale, the following measures were applied: the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale, the Montgomery and Asberg Depression Rating Scale, the Lille Apathy Rating Scale, the Bech and Rafaelsen Mania Scale, the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale, the MacElroy Criteria, the Patrick Carnes criteria, the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, and the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview. Patients (n = 260) were recruited at 13 centers across four countries (France, Spain, United Kingdom, and United States). Cronbach's alpha coefficient for domains ranged from 0.69 to 0.78. Regarding test-retest reliability, the kappa coefficient for items was higher than 0.4. For inter-rater reliability, the kappa values were 0.29 to 0.81. Furthermore, most of the items from the Ardouin Scale of Behavior in Parkinson's Disease correlated with the corresponding items of the other scales, depressed mood with the Montgomery and Asberg Depression Rating Scale (ρ = 0.82); anxiety with the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale-anxiety (ρ = 0.56); apathy with the Lille Apathy Rating Scale (ρ = 0.60). The Ardouin Scale of Behavior in Parkinson's disease is an acceptable, reproducible, valid, and precise assessment for evaluating changes in behavior in patients with Parkinson's disease without dementia. © 2015 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Benthic and substrate cover data derived from a time series of photo-transect surveys for the Eastern Banks, Moreton Bay Australia, 2004-2015

This paper describes seagrass species and percentage cover point-based field data sets derived from georeferenced photo transects. Annually or biannually over a ten year period (2004-2015) data sets were collected using 30-50 transects, 500-800 m in length distributed across a 142 km**2 shallow, clear water seagrass habitat, the Eastern Banks, Moreton Bay, Australia. Each of the eight data sets include seagrass property information derived from approximately 3000 georeferenced, downward looking photographs captured at 2-4 m intervals along the transects. Photographs were manually interpreted to estimate seagrass species composition and percentage cover (Coral Point Count excel; CPCe). Understanding seagrass biology, ecology and dynamics for scientific and management purposes requires point-based data on species composition and cover. This data set, and the methods used to derive it are a globally unique example for seagrass ecological applications. It provides the basis for multiple further studies at this site, regional to global comparative studies, and, for the design of similar monitoring programs elsewhere.

Quantifying diet-induced metabolic changes of the human gut microbiome

The human gut microbiome is known to be associated with various human disorders, but a major challenge is to go beyond association studies and elucidate causalities. Mathematical modeling of the human gut microbiome at a genome scale is a useful tool to decipher microbe-microbe, diet-microbe and microbe-host interactions. Here, we describe the CASINO (Community And Systems-level INteractive Optimization) toolbox, a comprehensive computational platform for analysis of microbial communities through metabolic modeling. We first validated the toolbox by simulating and testing the performance of single bacteria and whole communities in vitro. Focusing on metabolic interactions between the diet, gut microbiota, and host metabolism, we demonstrated the predictive power of the toolbox in a diet-intervention study of 45 obese and overweight individuals and validated our predictions by fecal and blood metabolomics data. Thus, modeling could quantitatively describe altered fecal and serum amino acid levels in response to diet intervention.

Sustainable refurbishment: quantifying the impact of façade changes in multi-storey, multi-occupancy buildings

Building refurbishment is key to reducing the carbon footprint and improving comfort in the built environment. However, quantifying the real benefit of a facade change, which can bring advantages to owners (value), occupants (comfort) and the society (sustainability), is not a simple task. At a building physics level, the changes in kWh per m2 of heating / cooling load can be readily quantified. However, there are many subtle layers of operation and mainte-nance below these headline figures which determine how sustainable a building is in reality, such as for example quality of life factors. This paper considers the range of approached taken by a fa/e refurbishment consortium to assess refurbishment solutions for multi-storey, multi-occupancy buildings and how to critically evaluate them. Each of the applued tools spans one or more of the three building parameters of people, product and process. 'De-cision making' analytical network process and parametric building analysis tools are described and their potential impact on the building refurbishment process evaluated.

Quantifying the contributions to stratospheric ozone changes from ozone depleting substances and greenhouse gases

A state-of-the-art chemistry climate model coupled to a three-dimensional ocean model is used to produce three experiments, all seamlessly covering the period 1950–2100, forced by different combinations of long-lived Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) and Ozone Depleting Substances (ODSs). The experiments are designed to quantify the separate effects of GHGs and ODSs on the evolution of ozone, as well as the extent to which these effects are independent of each other, by alternately holding one set of these two forcings constant in combination with a third experiment where both ODSs and GHGs vary. We estimate that up to the year 2000 the net decrease in the column amount of ozone above 20 hPa is approximately 75% of the decrease that can be attributed to ODSs due to the offsetting effects of cooling by increased CO2. Over the 21st century, as ODSs decrease, continued cooling from CO2 is projected to account for more than 50% of the projected increase in ozone above 20 hPa. Changes in ozone below 20 hPa show a redistribution of ozone from tropical to extra-tropical latitudes with an increase in the Brewer-Dobson circulation. In addition to a latitudinal redistribution of ozone, we find that the globally averaged column amount of ozone below 20 hPa decreases over the 21st century, which significantly mitigates the effect of upper stratospheric cooling on total column ozone. Analysis by linear regression shows that the recovery of ozone from the effects of ODSs generally follows the decline in reactive chlorine and bromine levels, with the exception of the lower polar stratosphere where recovery of ozone in the second half of the 21st century is slower than would be indicated by the decline in reactive chlorine and bromine concentrations. These results also reveal the degree to which GHGrelated effects mute the chemical effects of N2O on ozone in the standard future scenario used for the WMO Ozone Assessment. Increases in the residual circulation of the atmosphere and chemical effects from CO2 cooling more than halve the increase in reactive nitrogen in the mid to upper stratosphere that results from the specified increase in N2O between 1950 and 2100.

Quantifying errors due to frequency changes and target location uncertainty for radar refractivity retrievals

Radar refractivity retrievals can capture near-surface humidity changes, but noisy phase changes of the ground clutter returns limit the accuracy for both klystron- and magnetron-based systems. Observations with a C-band (5.6 cm) magnetron weather radar indicate that the correction for phase changes introduced by local oscillator frequency changes leads to refractivity errors no larger than 0.25 N units: equivalent to a relative humidity change of only 0.25% at 20°C. Requested stable local oscillator (STALO) frequency changes were accurate to 0.002 ppm based on laboratory measurements. More serious are the random phase change errors introduced when targets are not at the range-gate center and there are changes in the transmitter frequency (ΔfTx) or the refractivity (ΔN). Observations at C band with a 2-μs pulse show an additional 66° of phase change noise for a ΔfTx of 190 kHz (34 ppm); this allows the effect due to ΔN to be predicted. Even at S band with klystron transmitters, significant phase change noise should occur when a large ΔN develops relative to the reference period [e.g., ~55° when ΔN = 60 for the Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) radars]. At shorter wavelengths (e.g., C and X band) and with magnetron transmitters in particular, refractivity retrievals relative to an earlier reference period are even more difficult, and operational retrievals may be restricted to changes over shorter (e.g., hourly) periods of time. Target location errors can be reduced by using a shorter pulse or identified by a new technique making alternate measurements at two closely spaced frequencies, which could even be achieved with a dual–pulse repetition frequency (PRF) operation of a magnetron transmitter.

Application of landsat images for quantifying the energy balance under conditions of land use changes in the semi-arid region of Brazil

In the Nilo Coelho irrigation scheme, Brazil, the natural vegetation has been replaced by irrigated agriculture, bringing importance for the quantification of the effects on the energy exchanges between the mixed vegetated surfaces and the lower atmosphere. Landsat satellite images and agro-meteorological stations from 1992 to 2011 were used together, for modelling these exchanges. Surface albedo (α0), NDVI and surface temperature (T0) were the basic remote sensing retrieving parameters necessary to calculate the latent heat flux (λE) and the surface resistance to evapotranspiration (rs) on a large scale. The daily net radiation (Rn) was obtained from α0, air temperature (Ta) and short-wave transmissivity (τsw) throughout the slob equation, allowing the quantification of the daily sensible heat flux (H) by residual in the energy balance equation. With a threshold value for rs, it was possible to separate the energy fluxes from crops and natural vegetation. The averaged fractions of Rn partitioned as H and λE, were in average 39 and 67%, respectively. It was observed an increase of the energy used for the evapotranspiration process inside irrigated areas from 51% in 1992 to 80% in 2011, with the ratio λE/Rn presenting an increase of 3 % per year. The tools and models applied in the current research, can subsidize the monitoring of the coupled climate and land use changes effects in irrigation perimeters, being valuable when aiming the sustainability of the irrigated agriculture in the future, avoiding conflicts among different water users. © 2012 SPIE.

Quantifying N2O and CO2 emissions from subtropical pasture

Greenhouse gas emissions from a well established, unfertilized tropical grass-legume pasture were monitored over two consecutive years using high resolution automatic sampling. Nitrous oxide emissions were highest during the summer months and were highly episodic, related more to the size and distribution of rain events than WFPS alone. Mean annual emissions were significantly higher during 2008 (5.7 ± 1.0 g N2O-N/ha/day) than 2007 (3.9 ± 0.4 and g N2O-N/ha/day) despite receiving nearly 500 mm less rain. Mean CO2 (28.2 ± 1.5 kg CO2 C/ha/day) was not significantly different (P < 0.01) between measurement years, emissions being highly dependent on temperature. A negative correlation between CO2 and WFPS at >70% indicated a threshold for soil conditions favouring denitrification. The use of automatic chambers for high resolution greenhouse gas sampling can greatly reduce emission estimation errors associated with temperature and WFPS changes.