Affect and cognition measures in preference-based decisions: Validity testing of the Ottawa Decisional Conflict Scale and a decision-specific anxiety measure with men eligible for prostate cancer screening

Background. At present, prostate cancer screening (PCS) guidelines require a discussion of risks, benefits, alternatives, and personal values, making decision aids an important tool to help convey information and to help clarify values. Objective: The overall goal of this study is to provide evidence of the reliability and validity of a PCS anxiety measure and the Decisional Conflict Scale (DCS). Methods. Using data from a randomized, controlled PCS decision aid trial that measured PCS anxiety at baseline and DCS at baseline (T0) and at two-weeks (T2), four psychometric properties were assessed: (1) internal consistency reliability, indicated by factor analysis intraclass correlations and Cronbach's α; (2) construct validity, indicated by patterns of Pearson correlations among subscales; (3) discriminant validity, indicated by the measure's ability to discriminate between undecided men and those with a definite screening intention; and (4) factor validity and invariance using confirmatory factor analyses (CFA). Results. The PCS anxiety measure had adequate internal consistency reliability and good construct and discriminant validity. CFAs indicated that the 3-factor model did not have adequate fit. CFAs for a general PCS anxiety measure and a PSA anxiety measure indicated adequate fit. The general PCS anxiety measure was invariant across clinics. The DCS had adequate internal consistency reliability except for the support subscale and had adequate discriminate validity. Good construct validity was found at the private clinic, but was only found for the feeling informed subscale at the public clinic. The traditional DCS did not have adequate fit at T0 or at T2. The alternative DCS had adequate fit at T0 but was not identified at T2. Factor loadings indicated that two subscales, feeling informed and feeling clear about values, were not distinct factors. Conclusions. Our general PCS anxiety measure can be used in PCS decision aid studies. The alternative DCS may be appropriate for men eligible for PCS. Implications: More emphasis needs to be placed on the development of PCS anxiety items relating to testing procedures. We recommend that the two DCS versions be validated in other samples of men eligible for PCS and in other health care decisions that involve uncertainty. ^

Links between attachment orientations and dispositional and diary-based measures of disclosure in dating couples: A study of actor and partner effects

Issues concerning the influence of attachment characteristics on own and partner's disclosure were addressed using a sample of 113 couples in medium-term dating relationships. Individual differences in attachment were assessed in terms of relationship anxiety and avoidance. Disposition to disclose was assessed using questionnaire measures of self-disclosure, relationship-focused disclosure, and the ability to elicit disclosure from the partner; in addition, structured diaries were used to assess aspects of disclosure (amount, intimacy, emotional tone, and satisfaction) in the context of couples' everyday interactions. Couple-level analyses showed that avoidance strongly predicted dispositional measures of disclosure, whereas anxiety (particularly partner's anxiety) was related to negative evaluations of everyday interactions. Interactive effects of attachment dimensions and gender were also obtained, highlighting the complexity of communication behavior. The results are discussed in terms of the goals and strategies associated with working models of attachment.

The use of flexible quantile-based measures in risk assessment

A new family of distortion risk measures -GlueVaR- is proposed in Belles- Sampera et al. -2013- to procure a risk assessment lying between those provided by common quantile-based risk measures. GlueVaR risk measures may be expressed as a combination of these standard risk measures. We show here that this relationship may be used to obtain approximations of GlueVaR measures for general skewed distribution functions using the Cornish-Fisher expansion. A subfamily of GlueVaR measures satisfies the tail-subadditivity property. An example of risk measurement based on real insurance claim data is presented, where implications of tail-subadditivity in the aggregation of risks are illustrated.

Effectiveness of Justice-Based Measures in Managing Trust and Privacy Concerns on Social Networking Sites: Intercultural Perspective

The unprecedented success of social networking sites (SNSs) has been recently overshadowed by concerns about privacy risks. As SNS users grow weary of privacy breaches and thus develop distrust, they may restrict or even terminate their platform activities. In the long run, these developments endanger SNS platforms’ financial viability and undermine their ability to create individual and social value. By applying a justice perspective, this study aims to understand the means at the disposal of SNS providers to leverage the privacy concerns and trusting beliefs of their users—two important determinants of user participation on SNSs. Considering that SNSs have a global appeal, empirical tests assess the effectiveness of justice measures for three culturally distinct countries: Germany, Russia and Morocco. The results indicate that these measures are particularly suited to address trusting beliefs of SNS audience. Specifically, in all examined countries, procedural justice and the awareness dimension of informational justice improve perceptions of trust in the SNS provider. Privacy concerns, however, are not as easy to manage, because the impact of justice-based measures on privacy concerns is not universal. Beyond theoretical value, this research offers valuable practical insights into the use of justice-based measures to promote trust and mitigate privacy concerns in a cross-cultural setting.

Stressful times call for team-based measures:psychiatric nursing in the UK National Health Service

Background: Team-based working is now an inherent part of effective health care delivery. Previous research has identified that team working is associated with positive mental health and well-being outcomes for individuals operating in an effective team environment. This is a particularly important topic in the health services context, although little empirical attention has been paid to mental-health services. Psychiatric nurses work on a day-to-day basis with a particularly stressful and demanding client group in an environment which is characterised by high demands, uncertainty, and limited resources. This paper specifically focuses on psychiatric nurses working in National Health Service (NHS) and casts some light on the ways in which effective team-based working can help to alleviate a number of occupational stressors and strains. Method: A questionnaire method (2005 NHS Staff Survey) was employed to collect data from 6655 psychiatric nurses from 64 different NHS Trusts. The hypotheses were concerned with four overall measures from the survey; effective team working, occupational stress, work pressure and social support. Hypothesis 1 stated that effective team working will have a significant negative relationship with occupational stress and work pressure. Further, Hypothesis 2 stated that social support from supervisors and co-workers will moderate this relationship. Findings: Data was treated with a series of regression analyses. For Hypothesis 1, working in a real team did have main effects on work pressure and accounted for 1.6 per cent of the variance. Using the Nagelkerke R square value, working in a real team also had main effects on occupational stress an accounted for approximately 2.8 per cent of the variance. Further, the Exp (B) value of 0.662 suggests that the odds of suffering from occupational stress are cut by 33.8 per cent when a psychiatric nurse works in a real team. Results failed to provide support for Hypothesis 2. The analysis then went on to adopt a unique approach for assessing the extent of real team-based working, distinguishing between real teams, and a number of pseudo team typologies, as well as the absence of teamwork all together. As was hypothesised, results demonstrated that psychiatric nurses working in real teams (ones with clear objectives, where-by team members work closely with one another to achieve team objectives and meet regularly to discuss team effectiveness and how it can be improved) experienced the lowest levels of stress and work pressure of the sample. However, contrary to prediction, results indicated that psychiatric nurses working in any type of pseudo team actually experienced significantly higher levels of stress and work pressure than those who did not report as working in a team at all. Discussion: These findings have serious implications for NHS Mental Health Trusts, which may not be implementing, structuring and managing their nursing teams adequately. Indeed, results suggest that poorly-structured team work may actually facilitate stress and pressure in the workplace. Conversely, well-structured real teams serve to reduce stress and work pressure, which in turn not only enhances the working lives and well-being of psychiatric nurses, but also greatly improves the service that the NHS provides to its users.

Avaliação económica em transplantação renal : abordagem estratégica do processo de doação e análise de custo-utilidade do programa de transplantação renal versus hemodiálise

SUMÁRIO - O desafio atual da Saúde Pública é assegurar a sustentabilidade financeira do sistema de saúde. Em ambiente de recursos escassos, as análises económicas aplicadas à prestação dos cuidados de saúde são um contributo para a tomada de decisão que visa a maximização do bem-estar social sujeita a restrição orçamental. Portugal é um país com 10,6 milhões de habitantes (2011) com uma incidência e prevalência elevadas de doença renal crónica estadio 5 (DRC5), respetivamente, 234 doentes por milhão de habitantes (pmh) e 1.600 doentes/pmh. O crescimento de doenças associadas às causas de DRC, nomeadamente, diabetes Mellitus e hipertensão arterial, antecipam uma tendência para o aumento do número de doentes. Em 2011, dos 17.553 doentes em tratamento substitutivo renal, 59% encontrava-se em programa de hemodiálise (Hd) em centros de diálise extra-hospitalares, 37% viviam com um enxerto renal funcionante e 4% estavam em diálise peritoneal (SPN, 2011). A lista ativa para transplante (Tx) renal registava 2.500 doentes (SPN 2009). O Tx renal é a melhor modalidade terapêutica pela melhoria da sobrevida, qualidade de vida e relação custo-efetividade, mas a elegibilidade para Tx e a oferta de órgãos condicionam esta opção. Esta investigação desenvolveu-se em duas vertentes: i) determinar o rácio custo-utilidade incremental do Tx renal comparado com a Hd; ii) avaliar a capacidade máxima de dadores de cadáver em Portugal, as características e as causas de morte dos dadores potenciais a nível nacional, por hospital e por Gabinete Coordenador de Colheita e Transplantação (GCCT), e analisar o desempenho da rede de colheita de órgãos para Tx. Realizou-se um estudo observacional/não interventivo, prospetivo e analítico que incidiu sobre uma coorte de doentes em Hd que foi submetida a Tx renal. O tempo de seguimento mínimo foi de um ano e máximo de três anos. No início do estudo, colheram-se dados sociodemográficos e clínicos em 386 doentes em Hd, elegíveis para Tx renal. A qualidade de vida relacionada com a saúde (QVRS) foi avaliada nos doentes em Hd (tempo 0) e nos transplantados, aos três, seis, 12 meses, e depois, anualmente. Incluíram-se os doentes que por falência do enxerto renal transitaram para Hd. Na sua medição, utilizou-se um instrumento baseado em preferências da população, o EuroQol-5D, que permite o posterior cálculo dos QALY. Num grupo de 82 doentes, a QVRS em Hd foi avaliada em dois tempos de resposta o que permitiu a análise da sua evolução. Realizou-se uma análise custo-utilidade do Tx renal comparado com a Hd na perspetiva da sociedade. Identificaram-se os custos diretos, médicos e não médicos, e as alterações de produtividade em Hd e Tx renal. Incluíram-se os custos da colheita de órgãos, seleção dos candidatos a Tx renal e follow-up dos dadores vivos. Cada doente transplantado foi utilizado como controle de si próprio em diálise. Avaliou-se o custo médio anual em programa de Hd crónica relativo ao ano anterior à Tx renal. Os custos do Tx foram avaliados prospetivamente. Considerou-se como horizonte temporal o ciclo de vida nas duas modalidades. Usaram-se taxas de atualização de 0%, 3% e 5% na atualização dos custos e QALY e efetuaram-se análises de sensibilidade one way. Entre 2008 e 2010, 65 doentes foram submetidos a Tx renal. Registaram-se, prospetivamente, os resultados em saúde incluíndo os internamentos e os efeitos adversos da imunossupressão, e o consumo dos recursos em saúde. Utilizaram-se modelos de medidas repetidas na avaliação da evolução da QVRS e modelos de regressão múltipla na análise da associação da QVRS e dos custos do transplante com as características basais dos doentes e os eventos clínicos. Comparativamente à Hd, observou-se melhoria da utilidade ao 3º mês de Tx e a qualidade de vida aferida pela escala EQ-VAS melhorou em todos os tempos de observação após o Tx renal. O custo médio da Hd foi de 32.567,57€, considerado uniforme ao longo do tempo. O custo médio do Tx renal foi de 60.210,09€ no 1º ano e 12.956,77€ nos anos seguintes. O rácio custo-utilidade do Tx renal vs Hd crónica foi de 2.004,75€/QALY. A partir de uma sobrevivência do enxerto de dois anos e cinco meses, o Tx associou-se a poupança dos custos. Utilizaram-se os dados nacionais dos Grupos de Diagnóstico Homogéneos e realizou-se um estudo retrospectivo que abrangeu as mortes ocorridas em 34 hospitais com colheita de órgãos, em 2006. Considerou-se como dador potencial o indivíduo com idade entre 1-70 anos cuja morte ocorrera a nível hospitalar, e que apresentasse critérios de adequação à doação de rim. Analisou-se a associação dos dadores potenciais com características populacionais e hospitalares. O desempenho das organizações de colheita de órgãos foi avaliado pela taxa de conversão (rácio entre os dadores potenciais e efetivos) e pelo número de dadores potenciais por milhão de habitantes a nível nacional, regional e por Gabinete Coordenador de Colheita e Transplantação (GCCT). Identificaram-se 3.838 dadores potenciais dos quais 608 apresentaram códigos da Classificação Internacional de Doenças, 9.ª Revisão, Modificações Clínicas (CID- 9-MC) que, com maior frequência, evoluem para a morte cerebral. O modelo logit para dados agrupados identificou a idade, o rácio da lotação em Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos e lotação de agudos, existência de GCCT e de Unidade de Transplantação, e mortalidade por acidente de trabalho como fatores preditivos da conversão dum dador potencial em efetivo e através das estimativas do modelo logit quantificou-se a probabilidade dessa conversão. A doação de órgãos deve ser assumida como uma prioridade e as autoridades em saúde devem assegurar o financiamento dos hospitais com programas de doação, evitando o desperdício de órgãos para transplantação, enquanto um bem público e escasso. A colheita de órgãos deve ser considerada uma opção estratégica da atividade hospitalar orientada para a organização e planeamento de serviços que maximizem a conversão de dadores potenciais em efetivos incluindo esse critério como medida de qualidade e efetividade do desempenho hospitalar. Os resultados deste estudo demonstram que: 1) o Tx renal proporciona ganhos em saúde, aumento da sobrevida e qualidade de vida, e poupança de custos; 2) em Portugal, a taxa máxima de eficácia da conversão dos dadores cadavéricos em dadores potenciais está longe de ser atingida. O investimento na rede de colheita de órgãos para Tx é essencial para assegurar a sustentabilidade financeira e promover a qualidade, eficiência e equidade dos cuidados em saúde prestados na DRC5.

Three essays on the psychology of investment and financial markets

Préface My thesis consists of three essays where I consider equilibrium asset prices and investment strategies when the market is likely to experience crashes and possibly sharp windfalls. Although each part is written as an independent and self contained article, the papers share a common behavioral approach in representing investors preferences regarding to extremal returns. Investors utility is defined over their relative performance rather than over their final wealth position, a method first proposed by Markowitz (1952b) and by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), that I extend to incorporate preferences over extremal outcomes. With the failure of the traditional expected utility models in reproducing the observed stylized features of financial markets, the Prospect theory of Kahneman and Tversky (1979) offered the first significant alternative to the expected utility paradigm by considering that people focus on gains and losses rather than on final positions. Under this setting, Barberis, Huang, and Santos (2000) and McQueen and Vorkink (2004) were able to build a representative agent optimization model which solution reproduced some of the observed risk premium and excess volatility. The research in behavioral finance is relatively new and its potential still to explore. The three essays composing my thesis propose to use and extend this setting to study investors behavior and investment strategies in a market where crashes and sharp windfalls are likely to occur. In the first paper, the preferences of a representative agent, relative to time varying positive and negative extremal thresholds are modelled and estimated. A new utility function that conciliates between expected utility maximization and tail-related performance measures is proposed. The model estimation shows that the representative agent preferences reveals a significant level of crash aversion and lottery-pursuit. Assuming a single risky asset economy the proposed specification is able to reproduce some of the distributional features exhibited by financial return series. The second part proposes and illustrates a preference-based asset allocation model taking into account investors crash aversion. Using the skewed t distribution, optimal allocations are characterized as a resulting tradeoff between the distribution four moments. The specification highlights the preference for odd moments and the aversion for even moments. Qualitatively, optimal portfolios are analyzed in terms of firm characteristics and in a setting that reflects real-time asset allocation, a systematic over-performance is obtained compared to the aggregate stock market. Finally, in my third article, dynamic option-based investment strategies are derived and illustrated for investors presenting downside loss aversion. The problem is solved in closed form when the stock market exhibits stochastic volatility and jumps. The specification of downside loss averse utility functions allows corresponding terminal wealth profiles to be expressed as options on the stochastic discount factor contingent on the loss aversion level. Therefore dynamic strategies reduce to the replicating portfolio using exchange traded and well selected options, and the risky stock.

Preference polymorphism for coloration but no speciation in a population of Lake Victoria cichlids

Female mating preference based on male nuptial coloration has been suggested to be an important source of diversifying selection in the radiation of Lake Victoria cichlid fish. Initial variation in female preference is a prerequisite for diversifying selection; however, it is rarely studied in natural populations. In clear water areas of Lake Victoria, the sibling species Pundamilia pundamilia with blue males and Pundamilia nyererei with red males coexist, intermediate phenotypes are rare, and most females have species-assortative mating preferences. Here, we study a population of Pundamilia that inhabits turbid water where male coloration is variable from reddish to blue with most males intermediate. We investigated male phenotype distribution and female mating preferences. Male phenotype was unimodally distributed with a mode on intermediate color in 1 year and more blue-shifted in 2 other years. In mate choice experiments with females of the turbid water population and males from a clearer water population, we found females with a significant and consistent preference for P. pundamilia (blue) males, females with such preferences for P. nyererei (red) males, and many females without a preference. Hence, female mating preferences in this population could cause disruptive selection on male coloration that is probably constrained by the low signal transduction of the turbid water environment. We suggest that if environmental signal transduction was improved and the preference/color polymorphism was stabilized by negative frequency-dependent selection, divergent sexual selection might separate the 2 morphs into reproductively isolated species resembling the clear water species P. pundamilia and P. nyererei.

Development of a physically-based method for delineation of hydrologically homogeneous regions and flood quantile estimation in ungauged basins via the index flood method

Regional flood frequency techniques are commonly used to estimate flood quantiles when flood data is unavailable or the record length at an individual gauging station is insufficient for reliable analyses. These methods compensate for limited or unavailable data by pooling data from nearby gauged sites. This requires the delineation of hydrologically homogeneous regions in which the flood regime is sufficiently similar to allow the spatial transfer of information. It is generally accepted that hydrologic similarity results from similar physiographic characteristics, and thus these characteristics can be used to delineate regions and classify ungauged sites. However, as currently practiced, the delineation is highly subjective and dependent on the similarity measures and classification techniques employed. A standardized procedure for delineation of hydrologically homogeneous regions is presented herein. Key aspects are a new statistical metric to identify physically discordant sites, and the identification of an appropriate set of physically based measures of extreme hydrological similarity. A combination of multivariate statistical techniques applied to multiple flood statistics and basin characteristics for gauging stations in the Southeastern U.S. revealed that basin slope, elevation, and soil drainage largely determine the extreme hydrological behavior of a watershed. Use of these characteristics as similarity measures in the standardized approach for region delineation yields regions which are more homogeneous and more efficient for quantile estimation at ungauged sites than those delineated using alternative physically-based procedures typically employed in practice. The proposed methods and key physical characteristics are also shown to be efficient for region delineation and quantile development in alternative areas composed of watersheds with statistically different physical composition. In addition, the use of aggregated values of key watershed characteristics was found to be sufficient for the regionalization of flood data; the added time and computational effort required to derive spatially distributed watershed variables does not increase the accuracy of quantile estimators for ungauged sites. This dissertation also presents a methodology by which flood quantile estimates in Haiti can be derived using relationships developed for data rich regions of the U.S. As currently practiced, regional flood frequency techniques can only be applied within the predefined area used for model development. However, results presented herein demonstrate that the regional flood distribution can successfully be extrapolated to areas of similar physical composition located beyond the extent of that used for model development provided differences in precipitation are accounted for and the site in question can be appropriately classified within a delineated region.

Analysis of the Technical Efficiency of Urban Bus Services in Spain Based on SBM Models

During the first decade of the new millennium, fueled by the economic development in Spain, urban bus services were extended. Since the years 2008 and 2009, the root of the economic crisis, the improvement of these services is at risk due to economic problems. In this paper, the technical efficiency of the main urban bus companies in Spain during the 2004–2009 period are studied using SBM (slack-based measures) models and by establishing the slacks in the services' production inputs. The influence of a series of exogenous variables on the operation of the different services is also analyzed. It is concluded that only the 24% of the case studies are efficient, and some urban form variables can explain part of the inefficiency. The methodology used allows studying the inefficiency in a disaggregated way that other DEA (data envelopment analysis) models do not.

Use of short-term breath measures to estimate daily methane production by cattle

Methods to measure enteric methane (CH4) emissions from individual ruminants in their production environment are required to validate emission inventories and verify mitigation claims. Estimates of daily methane production (DMP) based on consolidated short-term emission measurements are developing, but method verification is required. Two cattle experiments were undertaken to test the hypothesis that DMP estimated by averaging multiple short-term breath measures of methane emission rate did not differ from DMP measured in respiration chambers (RC). Short-term emission rates were obtained from a GreenFeed Emissions Monitoring (GEM) unit, which measured emission rate while cattle consumed a dispensed supplement. In experiment 1 (Expt. 1), four non-lactating cattle (LW=518 kg) were adapted for 18 days then measured for six consecutive periods. Each period consisted of 2 days of ad libitum intake and GEM emission measurement followed by 1 day in the RC. A prototype GEM unit releasing water as an attractant (GEM water) was also evaluated in Expt. 1. Experiment 2 (Expt. 2) was a larger study based on similar design with 10 cattle (LW=365 kg), adapted for 21 days and GEM measurement was extended to 3 days in each of the six periods. In Expt. 1, there was no difference in DMP estimated by the GEM unit relative to the RC (209.7 v. 215.1 g CH4/day) and no difference between these methods in methane yield (MY, 22.7 v. 23.7 g CH4/kg of dry matter intake, DMI). In Expt. 2, the correlation between GEM and RC measures of DMP and MY were assessed using 95% confidence intervals, with no difference in DMP or MY between methods and high correlations between GEM and RC measures for DMP (r=0.85; 215 v. 198 g CH4/day SEM=3.0) and for MY (r=0.60; 23.8 v. 22.1 g CH4/kg DMI SEM=0.42). When data from both experiments was combined neither DMP nor MY differed between GEM- and RC-based measures (P>0.05). GEM water-based estimates of DMP and MY were lower than RC and GEM (P<0.05). Cattle accessed the GEM water unit with similar frequency to the GEM unit (2.8 v. 3.5 times/day, respectively) but eructation frequency was reduced from 1.31 times/min (GEM) to once every 2.6 min (GEM water). These studies confirm the hypothesis that DMP estimated by averaging multiple short-term breath measures of methane emission rate using GEM does not differ from measures of DMP obtained from RCs. Further, combining many short-term measures of methane production rate during supplement consumption provides an estimate of DMP, which can be usefully applied in estimating MY.

Characterizing QALYs under a general rank dependent utility model

This paper provides a characterization of QALYs, the most important outcome measure in medical decision making, in the context of a general rank dependent utility model. We show that both for chronic and for nonchronic health states the characterization of QALYs depends on intuitive conditions. This facilitates the assessment of the validity of QALYs in rank dependent non-expected utility theories and a comparison with other utility based measures of health.

Physiological responses to repeated bouts of high-intensity ultraendurance cycling - a field study case report

The present study aimed to 1) examine the relationship between laboratory-based measures and high-intensity ultraendurance (HIU) performance during an intermittent 24-h relay ultraendurance mountain bike race (similar to20 min cycling, similar to60min recovery), and 2) examine physiological and performance based changes throughout the HIU event. Prior to the HIU event, four highly-trained male cyclists (age = 24.0 +/- 2.1 yr; mass = 75.0 +/- 2.7 kg; (V)over dot O-2peak = 70 +/- 3 ml.kg(-1).min(-1)) performed 1) a progressive exercise test to determine peak Volume of oxygen uptake ((V)over dot O-2peak), peak power output (PPO), and ventilatory threshold (T-vent), 2) time-to-fatigue tests at 100% (TF100) and 150% of PPO (TF150), and 3) a laboratory simulated 40-km time trial (TT40). Blood lactate (Lac(-)), haematocrit and haemoglobin were measured at 6-h intervals throughout the HIU event, while heart rate (HR) was recorded continuously. Intermittent HIU performance, performance HR, recovery HR, and Lac declined (P < 0.05), while plasma volume expanded (P < 0.05) during the HIU event. TF100 was related to the decline in lap time (r = -0.96; P < 0.05), and a trend (P = 0.081) was found between TF150 and average intermittent HIU speed (r = 0.92). However, other measures (V)over dot O-2peak, PPO, T-vent, and TT40) were not related to HIU performance. Measures of high-intensity endurance performance (TF100, TF150) were better predictors of intermittent HIU performance than traditional laboratory-based measures of aerobic capacity.