Empirical test of an agricultural landscape model: the importance of farmer preference for risk aversion and crop complexity

Developing models to predict the effects of social and economic change on agricultural landscapes is an important challenge. Model development often involves making decisions about which aspects of the system require detailed description and which are reasonably insensitive to the assumptions. However, important components of the system are often left out because parameter estimates are unavailable. In particular, measurements of the relative influence of different objectives, such as risk, environmental management, on farmer decision making, have proven difficult to quantify. We describe a model that can make predictions of land use on the basis of profit alone or with the inclusion of explicit additional objectives. Importantly, our model is specifically designed to use parameter estimates for additional objectives obtained via farmer interviews. By statistically comparing the outputs of this model with a large farm-level land-use data set, we show that cropping patterns in the United Kingdom contain a significant contribution from farmer’s preference for objectives other than profit. In particular, we found that risk aversion had an effect on the accuracy of model predictions, whereas preference for a particular number of crops grown was less important. While nonprofit objectives have frequently been identified as factors in farmers’ decision making, our results take this analysis further by demonstrating the relationship between these preferences and actual cropping patterns.

Do location specific forecasts pose a new challenge for communicating uncertainty?

In the last decade, the growth of local, site-specific weather forecasts delivered by mobile phone or website represents arguably the fastest change in forecast consumption since the beginning of Television weather forecasts 60 years ago. In this study, a street-interception survey of 274 members of the public a clear first preference for narrow weather forecasts above traditional broad weather forecasts is shown for the first time, with a clear bias towards this preference for users under 40. The impact of this change on the understanding of forecast probability and intensity information is explored. While the correct interpretation of the statement ‘There is a 30% chance of rain tomorrow’ is still low in the cohort, in common with previous studies, a clear impact of age and educational attainment on understanding is shown, with those under 40 and educated to degree level or above more likely to correctly interpret it. The interpretation of rainfall intensity descriptors (‘Light’, ‘Moderate’, ‘Heavy’) by the cohort is shown to be significantly different to official and expert assessment of the same descriptors and to have large variance amongst the cohort. However, despite these key uncertainties, members of the cohort generally seem to make appropriate decisions about rainfall forecasts. There is some evidence that the decisions made are different depending on the communication format used, and the cohort expressed a clear preference for tabular over graphical weather forecast presentation.

Groupme: city data and multi-preference activity allocation

Classic group recommender systems focus on providing suggestions for a fixed group of people. Our work tries to give an inside look at design- ing a new recommender system that is capable of making suggestions for a sequence of activities, dividing people in subgroups, in order to boost over- all group satisfaction. However, this idea increases problem complexity in more dimensions and creates great challenge to the algorithm’s performance. To understand the e↵ectiveness, due to the enhanced complexity and pre- cise problem solving, we implemented an experimental system from data collected from a variety of web services concerning the city of Paris. The sys- tem recommends activities to a group of users from two di↵erent approaches: Local Search and Constraint Programming. The general results show that the number of subgroups can significantly influence the Constraint Program- ming Approaches’s computational time and e�cacy. Generally, Local Search can find results much quicker than Constraint Programming. Over a lengthy period of time, Local Search performs better than Constraint Programming, with similar final results.

Challenge to Managers: Changing Hotel Work from a Secondary Choice to career Development

In his discussion - Challenge To Managers: Changing Hotel Work from a Secondary Choice to Career Development - by Leonidas Chitiris, Lecturer in Management, Piraeus Graduate School of Industrial Studies, Athens, Greece, Chitiris marginally alludes at the outset: “Surveys and interviews with hotel employees in Greece with regard to why individuals work for hotels and to what extent their rationale to join the hotel industry affects hotel productivity revealed that the choice to work in hotels is a secondary preference and reflects the opportunity structure in the economy at any given time and the greater the number of those who work in hotels when there are no other employment opportunities, the less likely the chances for overall improved performance. Given the increase in the proportion of unskilled, unmotivated workers, the level of hotel productivity consequently decreases! The author interprets the findings in terms of the economic and employment conditions in the Greek hotel industry. To enhance the rationale of his thesis statement, Chitiris offers with citation: “Research on initial entry into the labor force has shown that new employees reflect idealized expectations and are frequently not very satisfied with their jobs and roles in the work settings.” Chitiris advances the thought even further by saying: “Research on job satisfaction, motivation, and production purports that management can initiate policies that develop job satisfaction and may improve productivity.” The author outlines components within the general category of the hotel industry to label and quantify exactly why there may be a lag between employee expectations and the delivery of a superior level of service. Please keep in mind that the information for this essay is underpinned by the hotel industry in Greece, exclusively. Demographic information is provided. One example of the many factors parsed in this hotel service discussion is the employee/guest relationship. “The quality of service in hotels is affected to a great extent by the number of guests a hotel employee has to serve,” Chitiris offers. Additionally, Chitiris’ characterization of the typical hotel employee in Greece is not flattering, but it is an informed and representative view of that lodging labor pool. The description in and of itself begs to explain at least some of why the hotel industry in Greece suffers a consequently diminished capacity of superior service. Ill equipped, under-educated, over-worked, and under-paid are how Chitiris describes most employees in the Hellenist hospitality field. Survey based studies, and formulaic indices are used to measure variables related to productivity; the results may be inconclusive industry wide, but are interesting nonetheless. Also, an appealing table gauges the reasons why hotel workers actually employ themselves in the lodging industry. Chirtiris finds that salary expectations do not rate all that high on the motivational chart and are only marginal when related to productivity. In closing, Chirtiris presents a 5-phase development plan hotels should look to in improving performance and productivity at their respective properties.

Preference Mapping Of Dulce De Leche Commercialized In Brazilian Markets.

Dulce de leche samples available in the Brazilian market were submitted to sensory profiling by quantitative descriptive analysis and acceptance test, as well sensory evaluation using the just-about-right scale and purchase intent. External preference mapping and the ideal sensory characteristics of dulce de leche were determined. The results were also evaluated by principal component analysis, hierarchical cluster analysis, partial least squares regression, artificial neural networks, and logistic regression. Overall, significant product acceptance was related to intermediate scores of the sensory attributes in the descriptive test, and this trend was observed even after consumer segmentation. The results obtained by sensometric techniques showed that optimizing an ideal dulce de leche from the sensory standpoint is a multidimensional process, with necessary adjustments on the appearance, aroma, taste, and texture attributes of the product for better consumer acceptance and purchase. The optimum dulce de leche was characterized by high scores for the attributes sweet taste, caramel taste, brightness, color, and caramel aroma in accordance with the preference mapping findings. In industrial terms, this means changing the parameters used in the thermal treatment and quantitative changes in the ingredients used in formulations.

Chikungunya In Brazil: An Emerging Challenge.

18

Self-disclosure of HIV diagnosis to sexual partners by heterosexual and bisexual men: a challenge for HIV/AIDS care and prevention

This study investigated the disclosure of HIV-positive serostatus to sexual partners by heterosexual and bisexual men, selected in centers for HIV/AIDS care. In 250 interviews, we investigated disclosure of serostatus to partners, correlating disclosure to characteristics of relationships. The focus group further explored barriers to maintenance/establishment of partnerships and their association with disclosure and condom use. Fear of rejection led to isolation and distress, thus hindering disclosure to current and new partners. Disclosure requires trust and was more frequent to steady partners, to partners who were HIV-positive themselves, to female partners, and by heterosexuals, occurring less frequently with commercial sex workers. Most interviewees reported consistent condom use. Unprotected sex was more frequent with seropositive partners. Suggestions to enhance comprehensive care for HIV-positive men included stigma management, group activities, and human rights-based approaches involving professional education in care for sexual health, disclosure, and care of "persons living with HIV".

Leg preference and interlateral asymmetry of balance stability in soccer players

To examine the effect of long lasting practice on pedal behavior in sport, we compared experienced adult soccer players and nonsoccer players on leg preference in motor tasks requiring general mobilization, soccer related mobilization, and body balance stabilization. We also evaluated performance asymmetry between the right and left legs in static and dynamic unipedal body balance based on center of pressure displacement, and correlated that with kg preference in balance stabilization tasks. Results revealed (a) a distinct leg preference between mobilization and stabilization tasks, which were significantly different between Mayers and nonplayers, (b) similar balance stability between the right and left legs, (c) greater stability of experienced players compared with nonplayers in static and dynamic balance, and (d) absence of a significant kg preference correlation with interlateral balance asymmetry. These results suggest an effect of extensive soccer skill practice on establishing leg preference for specific mobilization tasks and overall balance control.

Leg preference and interlateral performance asymmetry in soccer player children

Strength of leg peference and interlateral asymmetry in kinematics of kicking a ball for power were assessed in 6- to 10-year-old right-footed soccer player children. Leg preference was evaluated separately for three task categories: balance stabilization, soccer related mobilization, and general mobilization. The results showed that while both categories of mobilization tasks were featured by a consistent preference for the right leg, in stabilization tasks we observed lower scores and greater interindividual variability of leg preference. No effect of age was detected on leg preference. Analysis of peak foot velocity revealed similar increment of performance of the right and left legs from the ages 6-8 to 10 years. This finding supports the notion of stable Magnitude of interlateral asymmetries of performance during motor development. (C) 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Dev Psychobiol 50: 799-806, 2008.

Amplification and diffusion of manual preference from lateralized practice in children

The effect of lateralized practice on manual preference was investigated in right-handed children. Probing tasks required reaching and grasping a pencil at distinct eccentricities in the right and left hemifields (simple), and its transportation and insertion into a small hole (complex). During practice, the children experienced manipulative tasks different from that used for probing, using the left hand only. Results showed that before practice the children used almost exclusively the right hand in the right hemifield and at the midline position. Following lateralized practice frequency of use of the left hand increased in most lateral positions. A more evident effect of lateralized practice on shift of manual preference was detected in the complex task. Implications for lateralization of behavior in a developmental timescale are discussed on the basis of the proposition of amplification and diffusion of manual preference from lateralized practice. (C) 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Dev Psychobiol 52: 723-730, 2010.

Vector within-host feeding preference mediates transmission of a heterogeneously distributed pathogen

2. We documented the within-host distribution of two vector species that differ in transmission efficiency, the leafhoppers Draeculacephala minerva and Graphocephala atropunctata, and which are free to move throughout entirely caged alfalfa plants. The more efficient vector D. minerva fed preferentially at the base of the plant near the soil surface, whereas the less efficient G. atropunctata preferred overwhelming the top of the plant. 3. Next we documented X. fastidiosa heterogeneity in mechanically inoculated plants. Infection rates were up to 50% higher and mean bacterial population densities were 100-fold higher near the plant base than at the top or in the taproot. 4. Finally, we estimated transmission efficiency of the two leafhoppers when they were confined at either the base or top of inoculated alfalfa plants. Both vectors were inefficient when confined at the top of infected plants and were 20-60% more efficient when confined at the plant base. 5. These results show that vector transmission efficiency is determined by the interaction between leafhopper within-plant feeding behaviour and pathogen within-plant distribution. Fine-scale vector and pathogen overlap is likely to be a requirement generally for efficient transmission of vector-borne pathogens.

Diet-dependent life history, feeding preference and thermal requirements of the predatory mite Neoseiulus baraki (Acari: Phytoseiidae)

Neoseiulus baraki Athias-Henriot (Acari: Phytoseiidae) has been reported from the Americas, Africa and Asia, often in association with Aceria guerreronis Keifer (Acari: Eriophyidae), one of the most important pests of coconut (Cocos nucifera L.) in diVerent parts of the world. That phytoseiid has been considered one of the most common predators associated with A. guerreronis in Brazil. The objective of this study was to evaluate the feeding preference and the eVect of food items commonly present on coconut fruits and several temperature regimes on the life history of a Brazilian population of N. baraki. Completion of immature development was possible when N. baraki was fed A. guerreronis, Steneotarsonemus concavuscutum Lofego and Gondim Jr., and Tyrophagus putrescentiae (Schrank). Fecundity was highest on T. putrescentiae (39.4 eggs), followed by A. guerreronis (24.8 eggs). In choice tests, irrespective of the food on which N. baraki was reared, a larger number of adults of this predator chose leaf discs containing A. guerreronis than discs containing other food items, demonstrating a preference of the former for the latter as food. Egg to adult thermal developmental time was calculated as 84.2 degree-days, above a threshold of 15.8 degrees C. This lower developmental threshold is higher than previously published for phytoseiid species from higher latitudes. Neoseiulus baraki was shown to have higher biotic potential at 30 degrees C (r(m) 0.29). The results suggest N. baraki to be a promising biological control agent of A. guerreronis, well adapted to survive and develop in areas with relatively high temperatures, where that pest prevails.

Deconstructing sport history: The postmodern challenge

The crisis in the historical profession today is both conceptual and political, both methodological and practical. To the crises of the decline of great narrative history for the popular audience, the multiculturalist challenge to Eurocentric history, and the loss of faith in grand themes of progress and liberation that provided moral and political guidance through history’s lessons, must be added the crisis created by the implications of literary and rhetorical theory for the very practice of history itself.

Challenge or opportunity: can regional training hospitals capitalise on the impending influx of interns?

To the Editor: The increase in medical graduates expected over the next decade presents a huge challenge to the many stakeholders involved in providing their prevocational and vocational medical training. 1 Increased numbers will add significantly to the teaching and supervision workload for registrars and consultants, while specialist training and access to advanced training positions may be compromised. However, this predicament may also provide opportunities for innovation in the way internships are delivered. Although facing these same challenges, regional and rural hospitals could use this situation to enhance their workforce by creating opportunities for interns and junior doctors to acquire valuable experience in non-metropolitan settings. We surveyed a representative sample (n = 147; 52% of total cohort) of Year 3 Bachelor of Medicine and Bachelor of Surgery students at the University of Queensland about their perceptions and expectations of their impending internship and the importance of its location (ie, urban/metropolitan versus regional/rural teaching hospitals) to their future training and career plans. Most students (n = 127; 86%) reported a high degree of contemplation about their internship choice. Issues relating to career progression and support ranked highest in their expectations. Most perceived internships in urban/metropolitan hospitals as more beneficial to their future career prospects compared with regional/rural hospitals, but, interestingly, felt that they would have more patient responsibility and greater contact with and supervision by senior staff in a regional setting (Box). Regional and rural hospitals should try to harness these positive perceptions and act to address any real or perceived shortcomings in order to enhance their future workforce.2 They could look to establish partnerships with rural clinical schools3 to enhance recruitment of interns as early as Year 3. To maximise competitiveness with their urban counterparts, regional and rural hospitals need to offer innovative training and career progression pathways to junior doctors, to combat the perception that internships in urban hospitals are more beneficial to future career prospects. Partnerships between hospitals, medical schools and vocational colleges, with input from postgraduate medical councils, should provide vertical integration4 in the important period between student and doctor. Work is underway to more closely evaluate and compare the intern experience across regional/rural and urban/metropolitan hospitals, and track student experiences and career choices longitudinally. This information may benefit teaching hospitals and help identify the optimal combination of resources necessary to provide quality teaching and a clear career pathway for the expected influx of new interns.

Challenge of reducing drug-related deaths

The public-health attention given to deaths caused by illicit drug use in general, and by drug overdose in particular, should be commensurate with their contribution to premature death. For too long these deaths have been regarded as an unavoidable hazard of illicit drug use, their neglect abetted by the implicit view that the lives of illicit drug users are less deserving of being saved than those of others. In its report published this week,1 the UK Advisory Council on the Misuse of Drugs (ACMD) has rejected these implicit assumptions. Its view is that “drug-related deaths can, will and must in the near future be radically reduced in number”. It points out that the effort that society expends on preventing premature deaths “should apply no less to drug misusers than it does to other classes of people”.1