A probabilistic approach to niche-based community models for spatial forecasts of assemblage properties and their uncertainties

Aim Conservation strategies are in need of predictions that capture spatial community composition and structure. Currently, the methods used to generate these predictions generally focus on deterministic processes and omit important stochastic processes and other unexplained variation in model outputs. Here we test a novel approach of community models that accounts for this variation and determine how well it reproduces observed properties of alpine butterfly communities. Location The western Swiss Alps. Methods We propose a new approach to process probabilistic predictions derived from stacked species distribution models (S-SDMs) in order to predict and assess the uncertainty in the predictions of community properties. We test the utility of our novel approach against a traditional threshold-based approach. We used mountain butterfly communities spanning a large elevation gradient as a case study and evaluated the ability of our approach to model species richness and phylogenetic diversity of communities. Results S-SDMs reproduced the observed decrease in phylogenetic diversity and species richness with elevation, syndromes of environmental filtering. The prediction accuracy of community properties vary along environmental gradient: variability in predictions of species richness was higher at low elevation, while it was lower for phylogenetic diversity. Our approach allowed mapping the variability in species richness and phylogenetic diversity projections. Main conclusion Using our probabilistic approach to process species distribution models outputs to reconstruct communities furnishes an improved picture of the range of possible assemblage realisations under similar environmental conditions given stochastic processes and help inform manager of the uncertainty in the modelling results

Survey of management of first-ever seizures in a hospital based community

Résumé Contexte: Bon nombre d'études épidémiologiques concernant les premières crises comitiales ont été effectuées principalement sur des populations générales. Cependant, les patients admis dans un hôpital peuvent présenter des éléments cliniques différents. Nous avons donc mené une étude prospective auprès de sujets dans une population hospitalière ayant subi une première crise d'épilepsie, afin d'étudier leur pronostic et le rôle des examens complémentaires (examen neurologique, imagerie cérébrale, examens sanguins, EEG) dans le choix de l'administration d'une médication antiépileptique. Méthodes : Sur une période d'une année, nous avons suivi 177 patients adultes, admis consécutivement, ayant présenté une crise d'épilepsie dont l'évaluation aiguë a été effectuée dans notre hôpital. Pendant 6 mois, nous avons pratiqué pour chaque patient un suivi du traitement antiépileptique, des récidives de crises et d'un éventuel décès. Résultats : L'examen neurologique était anormal dans 72.3% des cas, l'imagerie cérébrale dans 54.8% et les examens sanguins dans 57.1%. L'EEG a montré des éléments épileptiformes dans 33.9% des cas. L'étiologie la plus fréquemment représentée était constituée par des intoxications. Un traitement antiépileptique a été prescrit chez 51% des patients. 31.6% des sujets suivis à six mois ont subi une récidive ; la mortalité s'est élevée à 17.8%. Statistiquement, l'imagerie cérébrale, l'EEG et l'examen neurologique étaient des facteurs prédictifs indépendants pour l'administration d'antiépileptiques, et l'imagerie cérébrale le seul facteur associé au pronostic. Conclusions : Les patients évalués en aigu dans un hôpital pour une première crise comitiale présentent un profil médical sous-jacent, qui explique probablement leur mauvais pronostic. L'imagerie cérébrale s'est avérée être le test paraclinique le plus important dans la prévention du traitement et du pronostic. Mots-clés : première crise d'épilepsie, étiologie, pronostic, récidive, médication antiépileptique, population hospitalière Summary Background: Epidemiological studies focusing on first-ever seizures have been carried out mainly on community based populations. However, since hospital populations may display varying clinical features, we prospectively analysed patients with first-ever seizure in a hospital based community to evaluate prognosis and the role of complementary investigations in the decision to administer antiepileptic drugs (AED). Methods: Over one year, we recruited 177 consecutive adult patients with a first seizure acutely evaluated in our hospital. During six months' follow-up data relating to AED treatment, recurrence of seizures and death were collected for each patient. Results:. Neurological examination was abnormal in 72.3%, neuroimaging in 54.8% and biochemical tests in 57.1%. Electroencephalogram (EEG) showed epileptiform features in 33.9%. Toxicity represented the most common aetiology. AED was prescribed in 51% of patients. Seizure recurrence at six months involved 31.6% of patients completing the follow-up; mortality was 17.8%. Statistical analysis showed that brain CT, EEG and neurological examination are independent predictive factors for AED administration, but only CT scan is associated with outcome. Conclusions: Patients evaluated acutely for first- ever seizure in a hospital setting have severe underlying clinical conditions apparently related to their relatively poor prognosis. Neuroimaging represents the most important paraclinical test in predicting both treatment administration and outcome.

Facebook faith - social networking in a faith based community

This paper views the increasing social networking as an efficient emerging ministry to the moveable generation. Through social network such as Facebook, ministry from a pastoral perspective can become more authentic and meaningful. Ministry is relational. Social Networking sites provide a strong platform to being part in other people’s life. Social networking and living online builds community beyond geographical boarders. Young adults and youths digital identity often reflects their faith, this is supported by research which suggests a practice of more openness to share and expose private issues online. Spiritual and religious views are freely shared, creating sacred spaces in the midst of life practising a holistic faith identity in a secular community. Providing a strong platform for information flow, Social Network is attractive in a postmodern society where inviting people to join in events are perceived as non threatening, making church community events transparent and available to people who do not attend church, inviting spiritual friendships and relationships. Social Networking strengthens relationship in a non hierarchical manner and invites the minister into lives where there previously would have been barriers, engaging in prayer and bible study as well as pastoral care through social networking, thus relationships deepens via social networking making people real. It has been observed that, although community building happens on the net, church affiliation loyalty remains to the local community. Therefore presence ministry though social networks emerges as a core form of ministry, where relations to youth who move from local church to university campuses are kept alive. The asynchronous nature of communication within social networking eases the minister in her work. The minister is able to engage with many individuals at the same time. Before the minister could visit one person at a time, now she visits 5-6 individuals at any given time. Therefore social networking not only increases the quality of the work, but also empowers the minister to be more efficient.

Carbon management, local governance and community engagement

This article examines the role of communities in carbon management as it relates to both climate change and energy policy at the local level and as a seedbed for grassroots activity. The article considers some of the implications of recent policy developments, particularly the ways in which the ‘lines of responsibility’ are now being drawn at the local level. Drawing upon in-depth interviews with local authorities in the UK and the USA, the article examines the political distinctions that are evident between the two situations and the ramifications of these for practical community engagement in carbon management at the local level. Community engagement is likely to be central to the delivery of CO2 reductions, but evidence so far points to a series of challenges that will require a greater emphasis on partnership working between community groups and formal decision-making bodies.

Community engagement and social organization: introducing concepts, policy and practical applications

This chapter provides an introductory overview of how the term ‘community’ has been conceptualized in sociological literatures, noting that there remains considerable uncertainty with regard to the way in which communities could or should be defined. The chapter examines the salience of underlying concepts of social organization that can shape and influence the extent to which programmes of engagement are likely to be successful. Drawing on recent empirical work some of the key opportunities and challenges for local government in translating the concepts into practice are considered.

Navigating the labyrinth: a guide to sequence-based, community ecology of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi

Data generated from next generation sequencing (NGS) will soon comprise the majority of information about arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal (AMF) communities. Although these approaches give deeper insight, analysing NGS data involves decisions that can significantly affect results and conclusions. This is particularly true for AMF community studies, because much remains to be known about their basic biology and genetics. During a workshop in 2013, representatives from seven research groups using NGS for AMF community ecology gathered to discuss common challenges and directions for future research. Our goal was to improve the quality and accessibility of NGS data for the AMF research community. Discussions spanned sampling design, sample preservation, sequencing, bioinformatics and data archiving. With concrete examples we demonstrated how different approaches can significantly alter analysis outcomes. Failure to consider the consequences of these decisions may compound bias introduced at each step along the workflow. The products of these discussions have been summarized in this paper in order to serve as a guide for any researcher undertaking NGS sequencing of AMF communities.