Sample-to-sample fluctuations of the overlap distributions in the three-dimensional Edwards-Anderson spin glass

We study the sample-to-sample fluctuations of the overlap probability densities from large-scale equilibrium simulations of the three-dimensional Edwards-Anderson spin glass below the critical temperature. Ultrametricity, stochastic stability, and overlap equivalence impose constraints on the moments of the overlap probability densities that can be tested against numerical data. We found small deviations from the Ghirlanda Guerra predictions, which get smaller as system size increases. We also focus on the shape of the overlap distribution, comparing the numerical data to a mean-field-like prediction in which finite-size effects are taken into account by substituting delta functions with broad peaks.

Accurate available bandwidth estimation in IEEE 802.11-based ad hoc networks

Quality of Service (QoS) support in IEEE 802.11-based ad hoc networks relies on the networks’ ability to estimate the available bandwidth on a given link. However, no mechanism has been standardized to accurately evaluate this resource. This remains one of the main issues open to research in this field. This paper proposes an available bandwidth estimation approach which achieves more accurate estimation when compared to existing research. The proposed approach differentiates the channel busy caused by transmitting or receiving from that caused by carrier sensing, and thus improves the accuracy of estimating the overlap probability of two adjacent nodes’ idle time. Simulation results testify the improvement of this approach when compared with well known bandwidth estimation methods in the literature.

Genetic characterization of egg weight, egg production and age at first egg in quails

O objetivo neste estudo foi obter estimativas de parâmetros genéticos para as características peso do ovo, produção de ovos em 189 dias de postura e dia do primeiro ovo em codornas de três linhagens de postura e uma de corte. Os dados foram analisados por meio de procedimentos bayesianos usando amostragem de Gibbs. As estimativas de herdabilidade para peso do ovo, produção de ovos em 189 dias de postura e dia do primeiro ovo foram, respectivamente, para a linhagem amarela, 0,31; 0,84 e 0,53; azul, 0,14; 0,82 e 0,60; vermelha, 0,70; 0,96 e 0,75; e de corte, 0,73; 0,96 e 0,72. As correlações genéticas entre peso do ovo e produção de ovos em 189 dias de postura, peso do ovo e dia do primeiro ovo e, produção de ovos em 189 dias de postura e dia do primeiro ovo foram, para amarela, 0,58; -0,77; e -0,90; azul, 0,09; -0,01; e -0,95; vermelha, 0,09; 0,03; e -0,76; e de corte, -0,18; 0,19 e -0,91. A partir das probabilidades de superposição das distribuições posteriories dos parâmetros, as linhagens dividem-se em dois grupos distintos: um com as linhagens amarela e azul e outro com as linhagens vermelha e de corte.

Predicting avian distributions to evaluate spatiotemporal overlap with locust control operations in eastern Australia.

Locusts and grasshoppers cause considerable economic damage to agriculture worldwide. The Australian Plague Locust Commission uses multiple pesticides to control locusts in eastern Australia. Avian exposure to agricultural pesticides is of conservation concern, especially in the case of rare and threatened species. The aim of this study was to evaluate the probability of pesticide exposure of native avian species during operational locust control based on knowledge of species occurrence in areas and times of application. Using presence-absence data provided by the Birds Australia Atlas for 1998 to 2002, we developed a series of generalized linear models to predict avian occurrences on a monthly basis in 0.5 degrees grid cells for 280 species over 2 million km2 in eastern Australia. We constructed species-specific models relating occupancy patterns to survey date and location, rainfall, and derived habitat preference. Model complexity depended on the number of observations available. Model output was the probability of occurrence for each species at times and locations of past locust control operations within the 5-year study period. Given the high spatiotemporal variability of locust control events, the variability in predicted bird species presence was high, with 108 of the total 280 species being included at least once in the top 20 predicted species for individual space-time events. The models were evaluated using field surveys collected between 2000 and 2005, at sites with and without locust outbreaks. Model strength varied among species. Some species were under- or over-predicted as times and locations of interest typically did not correspond to those in the prediction data set and certain species were likely attracted to locusts as a food source. Field surveys demonstrated the utility of the spatially explicit species lists derived from the models but also identified the presence of a number of previously unanticipated species. These results also emphasize the need for special consideration of rare and threatened species that are poorly predicted by presence-absence models. This modeling exercise was a useful a priori approach in species risk assessments to identify species present at times and locations of locust control applications, and to discover gaps in our knowledge and need for further focused data collection.

Examination of the overlap between DSM-111-R overanxious disorder and DSM-IV generalized anxiety disorder in childhood

Since DSM-III-R criteria for Overanxious Disorder (OAD) was subsumed under Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD) in DSM-IV, three studies have investigated the overlap between the diagnoses. Although two studies have identified children meeting both OAD and GAD criteria (OAD/GAD group), a third study has identified children who met criteria for OAD, but not GAD (OAD group). Based on finding these two groups of children, we examined whether children in the OAD group (n= 30) could be differentiated from children in the OAD/GAD group (n=81) based on self and parent report of anxious symptoms and level of functional impairment. Conditional probability rates were also calculated for each of the DSM anxious symptoms to determine their overall clinicalutility. Findings revealed that the OAD group of children experienced fewer anxious symptoms than children in the OAD/GAD group, though both groups showed some amount of impairment. The implications for research and practice are discussed.

Investment decision framework for infrastructure asset management: a probability-based approach

Australia’s civil infrastructure assets of roads, bridges, railways, buildings and other structures are worth billions of dollars. Road assets alone are valued at around A$ 140 billion. As the condition of assets deteriorate over time, close to A$10 billion is spent annually in asset maintenance on Australia's roads, or the equivalent of A$27 million per day. To effectively manage road infrastructures, firstly, road agencies need to optimise the expenditure for asset data collection, but at the same time, not jeopardise the reliability in using the optimised data to predict maintenance and rehabilitation costs. Secondly, road agencies need to accurately predict the deterioration rates of infrastructures to reflect local conditions so that the budget estimates could be accurately estimated. And finally, the prediction of budgets for maintenance and rehabilitation must provide a certain degree of reliability. A procedure for assessing investment decision for road asset management has been developed. The procedure includes: • A methodology for optimising asset data collection; • A methodology for calibrating deterioration prediction models; • A methodology for assessing risk-adjusted estimates for life-cycle cost estimates. • A decision framework in the form of risk map

Kindergarten students' understanding of probability concepts

This study explored kindergarten students’ intuitive strategies and understandings in probabilities. The paper aims to provide an in depth insight into the levels of probability understanding across four constructs, as proposed by Jones (1997), for kindergarten students. Qualitative evidence from two students revealed that even before instruction pupils have a good capacity of predicting most and least likely events, of distinguishing fair probability situations from unfair ones, of comparing the probability of an event in two sample spaces, and of recognizing conditional probability events. These results contribute to the growing evidence on kindergarten students’ intuitive probabilistic reasoning. The potential of this study for improving the learning of probability, as well as suggestions for further research, are discussed.

Integrity determination of RTK solutions in precision farming applications

Integrity of Real Time Kinematic (RTK) positioning solutions relates to the confidential level that can be placed in the information provided by the RTK system. It includes the ability of the RTK system to provide timely valid warnings to users when the system must not be used for the intended operation. For instance, in the controlled traffic farming (CTF) system that controls traffic separates wheel beds and root beds, RTK positioning error causes overlap and increases the amount of soil compaction. The RTK system’s integrity capacity can inform users when the actual positional errors of the RTK solutions have exceeded Horizontal Protection Levels (HPL) within a certain Time-To-Alert (TTA) at a given Integrity Risk (IR). The later is defined as the probability that the system claims its normal operational status while actually being in an abnormal status, e.g., the ambiguities being incorrectly fixed and positional errors having exceeded the HPL. The paper studies the required positioning performance (RPP) of GPS positioning system for PA applications such as a CTF system, according to literature review and survey conducted among a number of farming companies. The HPL and IR are derived from these RPP parameters. A RTK-specific rover autonomous integrity monitoring (RAIM) algorithm is developed to determine the system integrity according to real time outputs, such as residual square sum (RSS), HDOP values. A two-station baseline data set is analyzed to demonstrate the concept of RTK integrity and assess the RTK solution continuity, missed detection probability and false alarm probability.