Tracking the Ovarian Cycle in Black-and-Gold Howlers (Alouatta caraya) by Measuring Fecal Steroids and Observing Vaginal Bleeding

A better understanding of a species` reproductive physiology can help conservation programs to manage primates in the wild and develop assisted reproductive technologies in captivity. We investigated whether measurements of fecal progestin and estrogen metabolites obtained by a radioimmunoassay could be used to monitor the ovarian cycle of Alouatta caraya. We also compared the occurrence of vaginal bleeding with the hormone profiles. We collected fecal samples from 3 adult and 1 subadult captive female over 5 mo and performed vaginal cytology for the adults. The interval between fecal progestin surges in the adult females was 19.11 +/- 2.14 d (n = 18 cycles). Fecal progestin concentrations remained at basal values for 9.83 +/- 2.21 d (n = 18) and rose to elevated values for 9.47 +/- 0.72 d (n = 19). The subadult female showed basal levels of fecal estrogen and progestin concentrations throughout the study, suggesting that our hormone measurements are valid to monitor the ovarian cycle. Bleeding periods coincided with basal levels of fecal estrogens and progestin at intervals of 19.8 +/- 0.9 d and lasted for 4.1 +/- 1.0 d. Although we obtained these data from only 3 individuals, the results indicate that this species likely has a menstrual-type ovarian cycle. These data provide the first endocrine profile for the Alouatta caraya ovarian cycle and are similar to results obtained for other howler species. This similarity is important for comparative studies of howlers, allowing for a better understanding of their reproductive physiology and contributing to a critical information base for managing Alouatta species.

Observing workplace incivility towards women: The roles of target reactions, actor motives, and actor-target relationships

The current study conceptualized observer reactions to uncivil behavior towards women as an ethical behavior and examined three factors (target reaction, actor motive, and actor-target relationship) that influence these reactions. Two vignette studies with women and men undergraduate and graduate students in western Switzerland were conducted. Study 1 (N=148) was a written vignette study that assessed how the reaction of female targets to incivility and the motives of actors influenced observer reactions. Results showed that a female target's reaction influenced observers' evaluations of the harm caused by an uncivil incident, and that an actor's motive affected observers' assessments of the necessity to intervene. Study 2 (N=81) was a video vignette study that assessed the effects of the reactions by female targets to incivility and the relationship between the target and the actor on observer reactions.We found that female targets' reactions influenced observers' evaluations of harm and the perceived necessity to intervene. Furthermore, the effect of a female target's reaction on observers' evaluations of harm was moderated by the relationship between the actor and the target: a female target who laughed at the uncivil behavior was perceived as less harmed, when she and the actor had a personal relationship than when they had a professional relationship. When the female target reacted hurt or neutrally, actor-target relationship did not affect observers' evaluations of harm. We conclude by discussing the implications of our findings for theory and practice.

Observation and Observing in Economics

Two themes are generative for revealing and understanding the history of observation in economics. First, we argue for the importance of noting that observation is an activity as well as a result, and second that observation is no more identical with quantification than observing is with measuring. These two themes enable us to discuss different historical dimensions of the ways in which economists have observed their economies and so enlarge our understanding of their observational practices. These problematics especially help in delineating the intricate, multilayered, and active interactions between the observer and the observed that take place in all social science observation, and from which our pictures of the economic world emerge.

Sensitivity of the ERA40 reanalysis to the observing system: determination of the global atmospheric circulation from reduced observations

The impact of selected observing systems on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-yr reanalysis (ERA40) is explored by mimicking observational networks of the past. This is accomplished by systematically removing observations from the present observational data base used by ERA40. The observing systems considered are a surface-based system typical of the period prior to 1945/50, obtained by only retaining the surface observations, a terrestrial-based system typical of the period 1950-1979, obtained by removing all space-based observations, and finally a space-based system, obtained by removing all terrestrial observations except those for surface pressure. Experiments using these different observing systems have been limited to seasonal periods selected from the last 10 yr of ERA40. The results show that the surface-based system has severe limitations in reconstructing the atmospheric state of the upper troposphere and stratosphere. The terrestrial system has major limitations in generating the circulation of the Southern Hemisphere with considerable errors in the position and intensity of individual weather systems. The space-based system is able to analyse the larger-scale aspects of the global atmosphere almost as well as the present observing system but performs less well in analysing the smaller-scale aspects as represented by the vorticity field. Here, terrestrial data such as radiosondes and aircraft observations are of paramount importance. The terrestrial system in the form of a limited number of radiosondes in the tropics is also required to analyse the quasi-biennial oscillation phenomenon in a proper way. The results also show the dominance of the satellite observing system in the Southern Hemisphere. These results all indicate that care is required in using current reanalyses in climate studies due to the large inhomogeneity of the available observations, in particular in time.

The predictability of extratropical storm tracks and the sensitivity of their prediction to the observing system

A new method for assessing forecast skill and predictability that involves the identification and tracking of extratropical cyclones has been developed and implemented to obtain detailed information about the prediction of cyclones that cannot be obtained from more conventional analysis methodologies. The cyclones were identified and tracked along the forecast trajectories, and statistics were generated to determine the rate at which the position and intensity of the forecasted storms diverge from the analyzed tracks as a function of forecast lead time. The results show a higher level of skill in predicting the position of extratropical cyclones than the intensity. They also show that there is potential to improve the skill in predicting the position by 1 - 1.5 days and the intensity by 2 - 3 days, via improvements to the forecast model. Further analysis shows that forecasted storms move at a slower speed than analyzed storms on average and that there is a larger error in the predicted amplitudes of intense storms than the weaker storms. The results also show that some storms can be predicted up to 3 days before they are identified as an 850-hPa vorticity center in the analyses. In general, the results show a higher level of skill in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) than the Southern Hemisphere (SH); however, the rapid growth of NH winter storms is not very well predicted. The impact that observations of different types have on the prediction of the extratropical cyclones has also been explored, using forecasts integrated from analyses that were constructed from reduced observing systems. A terrestrial, satellite, and surface-based system were investigated and the results showed that the predictive skill of the terrestrial system was superior to the satellite system in the NH. Further analysis showed that the satellite system was not very good at predicting the growth of the storms. In the SH the terrestrial system has significantly less skill than the satellite system, highlighting the dominance of satellite observations in this hemisphere. The surface system has very poor predictive skill in both hemispheres.

An observing system simulation experiment for climate monitoring with GNSS radio occulation data: setup and testbed study

The long-term stability, high accuracy, all-weather capability, high vertical resolution, and global coverage of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) suggests it as a promising tool for global monitoring of atmospheric temperature change. With the aim to investigate and quantify how well a GNSS RO observing system is able to detect climate trends, we are currently performing an (climate) observing system simulation experiment over the 25-year period 2001 to 2025, which involves quasi-realistic modeling of the neutral atmosphere and the ionosphere. We carried out two climate simulations with the general circulation model MAECHAM5 (Middle Atmosphere European Centre/Hamburg Model Version 5) of the MPI-M Hamburg, covering the period 2001–2025: One control run with natural variability only and one run also including anthropogenic forcings due to greenhouse gases, sulfate aerosols, and tropospheric ozone. On the basis of this, we perform quasi-realistic simulations of RO observables for a small GNSS receiver constellation (six satellites), state-of-the-art data processing for atmospheric profiles retrieval, and a statistical analysis of temperature trends in both the “observed” climatology and the “true” climatology. Here we describe the setup of the experiment and results from a test bed study conducted to obtain a basic set of realistic estimates of observational errors (instrument- and retrieval processing-related errors) and sampling errors (due to spatial-temporal undersampling). The test bed results, obtained for a typical summer season and compared to the climatic 2001–2025 trends from the MAECHAM5 simulation including anthropogenic forcing, were found encouraging for performing the full 25-year experiment. They indicated that observational and sampling errors (both contributing about 0.2 K) are consistent with recent estimates of these errors from real RO data and that they should be sufficiently small for monitoring expected temperature trends in the global atmosphere over the next 10 to 20 years in most regions of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). Inspection of the MAECHAM5 trends in different RO-accessible atmospheric parameters (microwave refractivity and pressure/geopotential height in addition to temperature) indicates complementary climate change sensitivity in different regions of the UTLS so that optimized climate monitoring shall combine information from all climatic key variables retrievable from GNSS RO data.

An observing system simulation experiment to evaluate the scientific merit of wind and ozone measurements from the future SWIFT instrument

(from author) One of the first papers in the peer-review literature to discuss an OSSE to evaluate future wind observations in the stratosphere. Provides key evidence to justify the construction of the SWIFT instrument (currently planned to be built by the Canadian Space Agency for launch on ~ 2010).

Dynamic modulation of human motor activity when observing actions

Previous studies have demonstrated that when we observe somebody else executing an action many areas of our own motor systems are active. It has been argued that these motor activations are evidence that we motorically simulate observed actions; this motoric simulation may support various functions such as imitation and action understanding. However, whether motoric simulation is indeed the function of motor activations during action observation is controversial, due to inconsistency in findings. Previous studies have demonstrated dynamic modulations in motor activity when we execute actions. Therefore, if we do motorically simulate observed actions, our motor systems should also be modulated dynamically, and in a corresponding fashion, during action observation. Using magnetoencephalography (MEG), we recorded the cortical activity of human participants while they observed actions performed by another person. Here, we show that activity in the human motor system is indeed modulated dynamically during action observation. The finding that activity in the motor system is modulated dynamically when observing actions can explain why studies of action observation using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) have reported conflicting results, and is consistent with the hypothesis that we motorically simulate observed actions.

Observing Forbush decreases in cloud at Shetland

Meteorological measurements from Lerwick Observatory, Shetland (60°09′N, 1°08′W), are compared with short-term changes in Climax neutron counter cosmic ray measurements. For transient neutron count reductions of 10–12%, broken cloud becomes at least 10% more frequent on the neutron minimum day, above expectations from sampling. This suggests a rapid timescale (1 day) cloud response to cosmic ray changes. However, larger or smaller neutron count reductions do not coincide with cloud responses exceeding sampling effects. Larger events are too rare to provide a robust signal above the sampling noise. Smaller events are too weak to be observed above the natural variability.