A fully Bayesian approach to inference for Coxian phase-type distributions with covariate dependent mean

Phase-type distributions represent the time to absorption for a finite state Markov chain in continuous time, generalising the exponential distribution and providing a flexible and useful modelling tool. We present a new reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme for performing a fully Bayesian analysis of the popular Coxian subclass of phase-type models; the convenient Coxian representation involves fewer parameters than a more general phase-type model. The key novelty of our approach is that we model covariate dependence in the mean whilst using the Coxian phase-type model as a very general residual distribution. Such incorporation of covariates into the model has not previously been attempted in the Bayesian literature. A further novelty is that we also propose a reversible jump scheme for investigating structural changes to the model brought about by the introduction of Erlang phases. Our approach addresses more questions of inference than previous Bayesian treatments of this model and is automatic in nature. We analyse an example dataset comprising lengths of hospital stays of a sample of patients collected from two Australian hospitals to produce a model for a patient's expected length of stay which incorporates the effects of several covariates. This leads to interesting conclusions about what contributes to length of hospital stay with implications for hospital planning. We compare our results with an alternative classical analysis of these data.

Spatial information infrastructure : what can it possibly mean?

Investment begins with imagining that doing something new in the present will lead to a better future. Investment can vary from incidental improvements as safe and beneficial side-effects of current activity through to a more dedicated and riskier disinvestment in current methods of operation and reinvestment in new processes and products. The role of government has an underlying continuity determined by its constitution that authorises a parliament to legislate for peace, order and good government. ‘Good government’ is usually interpreted as improving the living standards of its citizens. The requirements for social order and social cohesion suggest that improvements should be shared fairly by all citizens through all of their lives. Arguably, the need to maintain an individual’s metabolism has a social counterpart in the ‘collective metabolism’ of a sustainable and productive society.

What do IPAQ questions mean to older adults? Lessons from cognitive interviews

Background Most questionnaires used for physical activity (PA) surveillance have been developed for adults aged ≤65 years. Given the health benefits of PA for older adults and the aging of the population, it is important to include adults aged 65+ years in PA surveillance. However, few studies have examined how well older adults understand PA surveillance questionnaires. This study aimed to document older adults’ understanding of questions from the International PA Questionnaire (IPAQ), which is used worldwide for PA surveillance. Methods Participants were 41 community-dwelling adults aged 65-89 years. They each completed IPAQ in a face-to-face semi-structured interview, using the “think-aloud” method, in which they expressed their thoughts out loud as they answered IPAQ questions. Interviews were transcribed and coded according to a three-stage model: understanding the intent of the question; performing the primary task (conducting the mental operations required to formulate a response); and response formatting (mapping the response into pre-specified response options). Results Most difficulties occurred during the understanding and performing the primary task stages. Errors included recalling PA in an “average” week, not in the previous 7 days; including PA lasting ≤10 minutes/session; reporting the same PA twice or thrice; and including the total time of an activity for which only a part of that time was at the intensity specified in the question. Participants were unclear what activities fitted within a question’s scope and used a variety of strategies for determining the frequency and duration of their activities. Participants experienced more difficulties with the moderate-intensity PA and walking questions than with the vigorous-intensity PA questions. The sitting time question, particularly difficult for many participants, required the use of an answer strategy different from that used to answer questions about PA. Conclusions These findings indicate a need for caution in administering IPAQ to adults aged ≥65 years. Most errors resulted in over-reporting, although errors resulting in under-reporting were also noted. Given the nature of the errors made by participants, it is possible that similar errors occur when IPAQ is used in younger populations and that the errors identified could be minimized with small modifications to IPAQ.

Correcting mean-field approximations for birth-death-movement processes

On the microscale, migration, proliferation and death are crucial in the development, homeostasis and repair of an organism; on the macroscale, such effects are important in the sustainability of a population in its environment. Dependent on the relative rates of migration, proliferation and death, spatial heterogeneity may arise within an initially uniform field; this leads to the formation of spatial correlations and can have a negative impact upon population growth. Usually, such effects are neglected in modeling studies and simple phenomenological descriptions, such as the logistic model, are used to model population growth. In this work we outline some methods for analyzing exclusion processes which include agent proliferation, death and motility in two and three spatial dimensions with spatially homogeneous initial conditions. The mean-field description for these types of processes is of logistic form; we show that, under certain parameter conditions, such systems may display large deviations from the mean field, and suggest computationally tractable methods to correct the logistic-type description.

Robust mean super-resolution for less cooperative NIR iris recognition at a distance and on the move

Less cooperative iris identification systems at a distance and on the move often suffers from poor resolution. The lack of pixel resolution significantly degrades the iris recognition performance. Super-resolution has been considered to enhance resolution of iris images. This paper proposes a pixelwise super-resolution technique to reconstruct a high resolution iris image from a video sequence of an eye. A novel fusion approach is proposed to incorporate information details from multiple frames using robust mean. Experiments on the MBGC NIR portal database show the validity of the proposed approach in comparison with other resolution enhancement techniques.

Corrected mean-field models for spatially-dependent advection-diffusion-reaction phenomena

In the exclusion-process literature, mean-field models are often derived by assuming that the occupancy status of lattice sites is independent. Although this assumption is questionable, it is the foundation of many mean-field models. In this work we develop methods to relax the independence assumption for a range of discrete exclusion process-based mechanisms motivated by applications from cell biology. Previous investigations that focussed on relaxing the independence assumption have been limited to studying initially-uniform populations and ignored any spatial variations. By ignoring spatial variations these previous studies were greatly simplified due to translational invariance of the lattice. These previous corrected mean-field models could not be applied to many important problems in cell biology such as invasion waves of cells that are characterised by moving fronts. Here we propose generalised methods that relax the independence assumption for spatially inhomogeneous problems, leading to corrected mean-field descriptions of a range of exclusion process-based models that incorporate (i) unbiased motility, (ii) biased motility, and (iii) unbiased motility with agent birth and death processes. The corrected mean-field models derived here are applicable to spatially variable processes including invasion wave type problems. We show that there can be large deviations between simulation data and traditional mean-field models based on invoking the independence assumption. Furthermore, we show that the corrected mean-field models give an improved match to the simulation data in all cases considered.

Dopamine responsiveness is regulated by targeted sorting of D2 receptors

Abstract Aberrant dopaminergic signaling is a critical determinant in multiple psychiatric disorders, and in many disease states, dopamine receptor number is altered. Here we identify a molecular mechanism that selectively targets D2 receptors for degradation after their activation by dopamine. The degradative fate of D2 receptors is determined by an interaction with G protein coupled receptor-associated sorting protein (GASP). As a consequence of this GASP interaction, D2 responses in rat brain fail to resensitize after agonist treatment. Disruption of the D2-GASP interaction facilitates recovery of D2 responses, suggesting that modulation of the D2-GASP interaction is important for the functional down-regulation of D2 receptors.

Mean and variance of estimates of the bispectrum of a harmonic random process-an analysis including leakage effects

Analytical expressions are derived for the mean and variance, of estimates of the bispectrum of a real-time series assuming a cosinusoidal model. The effects of spectral leakage, inherent in discrete Fourier transform operation when the modes present in the signal have a nonintegral number of wavelengths in the record, are included in the analysis. A single phase-coupled triad of modes can cause the bispectrum to have a nonzero mean value over the entire region of computation owing to leakage. The variance of bispectral estimates in the presence of leakage has contributions from individual modes and from triads of phase-coupled modes. Time-domain windowing reduces the leakage. The theoretical expressions for the mean and variance of bispectral estimates are derived in terms of a function dependent on an arbitrary symmetric time-domain window applied to the record. the number of data, and the statistics of the phase coupling among triads of modes. The theoretical results are verified by numerical simulations for simple test cases and applied to laboratory data to examine phase coupling in a hypothesis testing framework

Recovery-based practice: do we know what we mean or mean what we know?

The concept of recovery is now widely promoted as the guiding principle for the provision of mental health services in Australia and overseas. While there is increasing pressure on service providers to ensure that services are recovery oriented, the way in which recovery-based practice is operationalized at the coalface presents a number of challenges. These are discussed in the context of five key questions that address (i) the appropriateness of recovery as a focus for service delivery, (ii) the distinction between recovery as a process and an outcome, (iii) the assessment of recovery initiatives, (iv) the alignment of recovery with current service delivery models, and (v) the risks associated with recovery-based practice. It is argued that these questions provide a framework for a debate that must extend beyond patients and providers of mental health services to the broader public, whose attitudes will ultimately determine the possibilities and limits of recovery-oriented practice.