Asynchronous growth and competition in a two-sex age-structured population model

Asynchronous exponential growth has been extensively studied in population dynamics. In this paper we find out the asymptotic behaviour in a non-linear age-dependent model which takes into account sexual reproduction interactions. The main feature of our model is that the non-linear process converges to a linear one as the solution becomes large, so that the population undergoes asynchronous growth. The steady states analysis and the corresponding stability analysis are completely made and are summarized in a bifurcation diagram according to the parameter R0. Furthermore the effect of intraspecific competition is taken into account, leading to complex dynamics around steady states.

Accounting for management costs in sensitivity analyses of matrix population models

Traditional sensitivity and elasticity analyses of matrix population models have been used to p inform management decisions, but they ignore the economic costs of manipulating vital rates. For exam le, the growth rate of a population is often most sensitive to changes in adult survival rate, but this does not mean that increasing that rate is the best option for managing the population because it may be much more expensive than other options. To explore how managers should optimize their manipulation of vital rates, we incorporated the cost of changing those rates into matrix population models. We derived analytic expressions for locations in parameter space where managers should shift between management of fecundity and survival, for the balance between fecundity and survival management at those boundaries, and for the allocation of management resources to sustain that optimal balance. For simple matrices, the optimal budget allocation can often be expressed as simple functions of vital rates and the relative costs of changing them. We applied our method to management of the Helmeted Honeyeater (Lichenostomus melanops cassidix; an endangered Australian bird) and the koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) as examples. Our method showed that cost-efficient management of the Helmeted Honeyeater should focus on increasing fecundity via nest protection, whereas optimal koala management should focus on manipulating both fecundity and survival simultaneously, These findings are contrary to the cost-negligent recommendations of elasticity analysis, which would suggest focusing on managing survival in both cases. A further investigation of Helmeted Honeyeater management options, based on an individual-based model incorporating density dependence, spatial structure, and environmental stochasticity, confirmed that fecundity management was the most cost-effective strategy. Our results demonstrate that decisions that ignore economic factors will reduce management efficiency.

Convex Optimization Algorithms and Statistical Bounds for Learning Structured Models

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Harvest control rule vs optimal harvesting of an age-structured population: The case of the Ibero-Atlantic Sardine Fishery

Research Masters

Incorporating waiting time in competitive location models: Formulations and heuristics

In this paper we propose a metaheuristic to solve a new version of the Maximum CaptureProblem. In the original MCP, market capture is obtained by lower traveling distances or lowertraveling time, in this new version not only the traveling time but also the waiting time willaffect the market share. This problem is hard to solve using standard optimization techniques.Metaheuristics are shown to offer accurate results within acceptable computing times.

Evaluating the Maturity of Data Management Practices in a Major Energy Provider Company

Data is the most important asset of a company in the information age. Other assets, such as technology, facilities or products can be copied or reverse-engineered, employees can be brought over, but data remains unique to every company. As data management topics are slowly moving from unknown unknowns to known unknowns, tools to evaluate and manage data properly are developed and refined. Many projects are in progress today to develop various maturity models for evaluating information and data management practices. These maturity models come in many shapes and sizes: from short and concise ones meant for a quick assessment, to complex ones that call for an expert assessment by experienced consultants. In this paper several of them, made not only by external inter-organizational groups and authors, but also developed internally at a Major Energy Provider Company (MEPC) are juxtaposed and thoroughly analyzed. Apart from analyzing the available maturity models related to Data Management, this paper also selects the one with the most merit and describes and analyzes using it to perform a maturity assessment in MEPC. The utility of maturity models is two-fold: descriptive and prescriptive. Besides recording the current state of Data Management practices maturity by performing the assessments, this maturity model is also used to chart the way forward. Thus, after the current situation is presented, analysis and recommendations on how to improve it based on the definitions of higher levels of maturity are given. Generally, the main trend observed was the widening of the Data Management field to include more business and “soft” areas (as opposed to technical ones) and the change of focus towards business value of data, while assuming that the underlying IT systems for managing data are “ideal”, that is, left to the purely technical disciplines to design and maintain. This trend is not only present in Data Management but in other technological areas as well, where more and more attention is given to innovative use of technology, while acknowledging that the strategic importance of IT as such is diminishing.

Effect of patient age on management decisions in breast cancer: consensus from a national consultation

This qualitative study investigated the attitudes, perceptions, and practices of breast cancer specialists with reference to the effect of patient age on management decisions in breast cancer, and attempted to identify national consensus on this issue. One hundred thirty-three relevant specialists, including 75 surgeons and 43 oncologists, participated in a virtual consultation using e-mailed questionnaires and open-ended discussion documents, culminating in the development of proposed consensus statements sent to participants for validation. A strong consensus was seen in favor of incorporating minimum standards of diagnostic services, treatment, and care for older patients with breast cancer into relevant national guidance, endorsed by professional bodies. Similarly, an overwhelming majority of participants agreed that simple, evidence-based protocols or guidelines on standardizing assessment of biological and chronological age should be produced by the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence and the Scottish Medicines Consortium, developed in collaboration with specialist oncogeriatricians, and endorsed by professional bodies. A further recommendation that all breast cancer patient treatment and diagnostic procedures be undertaken in light of up-to-date, relevant scientific data met with majority support. This study was successful in gauging national specialist opinion regarding the effect of patient age on management decisions in breast cancer in the U.K.

Radiocarbon dating of modern peat profiles: Pre- and post-bomb C-14 variations in the construction of age-depth models

We present studies of 9 modern (up to 400-yr-old) peat sections from Slovenia, Switzerland, Austria, Italy, and Finland. Precise radiocarbon dating of modern samples is possible due to the large bomb peak of atmospheric 14C concentration in 1963 and the following rapid decline in the 14C level. All the analyzed 14C profiles appeared concordant with the shape of the bomb peak of atmospheric 14C concentration, integrated over some time interval with a length specific to the peat section. In the peat layers covered by the bomb peak, calendar ages of individual peat samples could be determined almost immediately, with an accuracy of 23 yr. In the pre-bomb sections, the calendar ages of individual dated samples are determined in the form of multi-modal probability distributions of about 300 yr wide (about AD 16501950). However, simultaneous use of the post-bomb and pre-bomb 14C dates, and lithological information, enabled the rejection of most modes of probability distributions in the pre-bomb section. In effect, precise age-depth models of the post-bomb sections have been extended back in time, into the wiggly part of the 14C calibration curve.

Tuberculosis in Cape Town: An age-structured transmission model.

BACKGROUND Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death in South Africa. The burden of disease varies by age, with peaks in TB notification rates in the HIV-negative population at ages 0-5, 20-24, and 45-49 years. There is little variation between age groups in the rates in the HIV-positive population. The drivers of this age pattern remain unknown. METHODS We developed an age-structured simulation model of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission in Cape Town, South Africa. We considered five states of TB progression: susceptible, infected (latent TB), active TB, treated TB, and treatment default. Latently infected individuals could be re-infected; a previous Mtb infection slowed progression to active disease. We further considered three states of HIV progression: HIV negative, HIV positive, on antiretroviral therapy. To parameterize the model, we analysed treatment outcomes from the Cape Town electronic TB register, social mixing patterns from a Cape Town community and used literature estimates for other parameters. To investigate the main drivers behind the age patterns, we conducted sensitivity analyses on all parameters related to the age structure. RESULTS The model replicated the age patterns in HIV-negative TB notification rates of Cape Town in 2009. Simulated TB notification rate in HIV-negative patients was 1000/100,000 person-years (pyrs) in children aged <5 years and decreased to 51/100,000 in children 5-15 years. The peak in early adulthood occurred at 25-29 years (463/100,000 pyrs). After a subsequent decline, simulated TB notification rates gradually increased from the age of 30 years. Sensitivity analyses showed that the dip after the early adult peak was due to the protective effect of latent TB and that retreatment TB was mainly responsible for the rise in TB notification rates from the age of 30 years. CONCLUSION The protective effect of a first latent infection on subsequent infections and the faster progression in previously treated patients are the key determinants of the age-structure of TB notification rates in Cape Town.

A survey of the implementation status of environmental management systems in U.S. colleges and universities, and, An environmental management system implementation model for U.S. colleges and universities

A census of 925 U.S. colleges and universities offering masters and doctorate degrees was conducted in order to study the number of elements of an environmental management system as defined by ISO 14001 possessed by small, medium and large institutions. A 30% response rate was received with 273 responses included in the final data analysis. Overall, the number of ISO 14001 elements implemented among the 273 institutions ranged from 0 to 16, with a median of 12. There was no significant association between the number of elements implemented among institutions and the size of the institution (p = 0.18; Kruskal-Wallis test) or among USEPA regions (p = 0.12; Kruskal-Wallis test). The proportion of U.S. colleges and universities that reported having implemented a structured, comprehensive environmental management system, defined by answering yes to all 16 elements, was 10% (95% C.I. 6.6%–14.1%); however 38% (95% C.I. 32.0%–43.8%) reported that they had implemented a structured, comprehensive environmental management system, while 30.0% (95% C.I. 24.7%–35.9%) are planning to implement a comprehensive environmental management system within the next five years. Stratified analyses were performed by institution size, Carnegie Classification and job title. ^ The Osnabruck model, and another under development by the South Carolina Sustainable Universities Initiative, are the only two environmental management system models that have been proposed specifically for colleges and universities, although several guides are now available. The Environmental Management System Implementation Model for U.S. Colleges and Universities developed is an adaptation of the ISO 14001 standard and USEPA recommendations and has been tailored to U.S. colleges and universities for use in streamlining the implementation process. In using this implementation model created for the U.S. research and academic setting, it is hoped that these highly specialized institutions will be provided with a clearer and more cost-effective path towards the implementation of an EMS and greater compliance with local, state and federal environmental legislation. ^

Self -management behavior in patients with cystic fibrosis

Self-management is being promoted in cystic fibrosis (CF). However, it has not been well studied. Principal aims of this research were (1) to evaluate psychometric properties of a CF disease status measure, the NIH Clinical Score; (2) to develop and validate a measure of self-management behavior, the SMQ-CF scale, and (3) to examine the relation between self-management and disease status in CF patients over two years.^ In study 1, NIH Clinical Scores for 200 patients were used. The scale was examined for internal consistency, interrater reliability, and content validity using factor analysis. The Cronbach's alpha (.81) and interrater reliability (.90) for the total scale were high. General scale items were less reliable. Factor analysis indicated that most of the variance in disease status is accounted for by Factor 1 which consists of pulmonary disease items.^ The SMQ-CF measures the performance of CF self-management. Pilot testing was done with 98 CF primary caregivers. Internal consistency reliability, social desirability bias, and content validity using factor analysis were examined. Internal consistency was good (alpha =.95). Social desirability correlation was low (r =.095). Twelve factors identified were consistent with conceptual groupings of behaviors. Around two hundred caregivers from two CF centers were surveyed and multivariate analysis of variance was used to assess construct validity. Results confirmed expected relations between self-management, patient age, and disease status. Patient age accounted for 50% and disease status 18% of the variance in the SMQ-CF scale.^ It was hypothesized that self-management would positively affect future disease status. Data from 199 CF patients (control and education intervention groups) were examined. Models of hypothesized relations were tested using LISREL structural equation modeling. Results indicated that the relations between baseline self-management and Time 1 disease status were not significant. Significant relations were observed in self-management behaviors from time 1 to time 2 and patterns of significant relations differed between the two groups.^ This research has contributed to refinements in the ability to measure self-management behavior and disease status outcomes in cystic fibrosis. In addition, it provides the first steps in exploratory behavioral analysis with regard to self-management in this disease. ^

Impact attribution models to evaluate drought effects: economic impacts, risk analyses and management strategies in Spain and Chile

La sequía es un fenómeno natural que se origina por el descenso de las precipitaciones con respecto a una media, y que resulta en la disponibilidad insuficiente de agua para alguna actividad. La creciente presión que se ha venido ejerciendo sobre los recursos hídricos ha hecho que los impactos de la sequía se hayan visto agravados a la vez que ha desencadenado situaciones de escasez de agua en muchas partes del planeta. Los países con clima mediterráneo son especialmente vulnerables a las sequías, y, su crecimiento económico dependiente del agua da lugar a impactos importantes. Para reducir los impactos de la sequía es necesaria una reducción de la vulnerabilidad a las sequías que viene dada por una gestión más eficiente y por una mejor preparación. Para ello es muy importante disponer de información acerca de los impactos y el alcance de este fenómeno natural. Esta investigación trata de abarcar el tema de los impactos de las sequías, de manera que plantea todos los tipos de impactos que pueden darse y además compara sus efectos en dos países (España y Chile). Para ello se proponen modelos de atribución de impactos que sean capaces de medir las pérdidas económicas causadas por la falta de agua. Los modelos propuestos tienen una base econométrica en la que se incluyen variables clave a la hora de evaluar los impactos como es una variable relacionada con la disponibilidad de agua, y otras de otra naturaleza para distinguir los efectos causados por otras fuentes de variación. Estos modelos se adaptan según la fase del estudio en la que nos encontremos. En primer lugar se miden los impactos directos sobre el regadío y se introduce en el modelo un factor de aleatoriedad para evaluar el riesgo económico de sequía. Esto se hace a dos niveles geográficos (provincial y de Unidad de Demanda Agraria) y además en el último se introduce no solo el riesgo de oferta sino también el riesgo de demanda de agua. La introducción de la perspectiva de riesgo en el modelo da lugar a una herramienta de gestión del riesgo económico que puede ser utilizada para estrategias de planificación. Más adelante una extensión del modelo econométrico se desarrolla para medir los impactos en el sector agrario (impactos directos sobre el regadío y el secano e impactos indirectos sobre la Agro Industria) para ello se adapta el modelo y se calculan elasticidades concatenadas entre la falta de agua y los impactos secundarios. Por último se plantea un modelo econométrico para el caso de estudio en Chile y se evalúa el impacto de las sequías debidas al fenómeno de La Niña. iv Los resultados en general muestran el valor que brinda el conocimiento más preciso acerca de los impactos, ya que en muchas ocasiones se tiende a sobreestimar los daños realmente producidos por la falta de agua. Los impactos indirectos de la sequía confirman su alcance a la vez que son amortiguados a medida que nos acercamos al ámbito macroeconómico. En el caso de Chile, su diferente gestión muestra el papel que juegan el fenómeno de El Niño y La Niña sobre los precios de los principales cultivos del país y sobre el crecimiento del sector. Para reducir las pérdidas y su alcance se deben plantear más medidas de mitigación que centren su esfuerzo en una gestión eficiente del recurso. Además la prevención debe jugar un papel muy importante para reducir los riesgos que pueden sufrirse ante situaciones de escasez. ABSTRACT Drought is a natural phenomenon that originates by the decrease in rainfall in comparison to the average, and that results in water shortages for some activities. The increasing pressure on water resources has augmented the impact of droughts just as water scarcity has become an additional problem in many parts of the planet. Countries with Mediterranean climate are especially vulnerable to drought, and its waterdependent economic growth leads to significant impacts. To reduce the negative impacts it is necessary to deal with drought vulnerability, and to achieve this objective a more efficient management is needed. The availability of information about the impacts and the scope of droughts become highly important. This research attempts to encompass the issue of drought impacts, and therefore it characterizes all impact types that may occur and also compares its effects in two different countries (Spain and Chile). Impact attribution models are proposed in order to measure the economic losses caused by the lack of water. The proposed models are based on econometric approaches and they include key variables for measuring the impacts. Variables related to water availability, crop prices or time trends are included to be able to distinguish the effects caused by any of the possible sources. These models are adapted for each of the parts of the study. First, the direct impacts on irrigation are measured and a source of variability is introduced into the model to assess the economic risk of drought. This is performed at two geographic levels provincial and Agricultural Demand Unit. In the latter, not only the supply risk is considered but also the water demand risk side. The introduction of the risk perspective into the model results in a risk management tool that can be used for planning strategies. Then an extension of the econometric model is developed to measure the impacts on the agricultural sector (direct impacts on irrigated and rainfed productions and indirect impacts on the Agri-food Industry). For this aim the model is adapted and concatenated elasticities between the lack of water and the impacts are estimated. Finally an econometric model is proposed for the Chilean case study to evaluate the impact of droughts, especially caused by El Niño Southern Oscillation. The overall results show the value of knowing better about the precise impacts that often tend to be overestimated. The models allow for measuring accurate impacts due to the lack of water. Indirect impacts of drought confirm their scope while they confirm also its dilution as we approach the macroeconomic variables. In the case of Chile, different management strategies of the country show the role of ENSO phenomena on main crop prices and on economic trends. More mitigation measures focused on efficient resource management are necessary to reduce drought losses. Besides prevention must play an important role to reduce the risks that may be suffered due to shortages.