Long-term change, interannual and intra-seasonal variability in climate and glacier mass balance in the Central Greater Caucasus, Russia

Long-term trends, interannual and intra-seasonal variability in the mass-balance record from Djankuat glacier, central Greater Caucasus, Russia, are related to local climate change, synoptic and large-scale anomalies in atmospheric circulation. A clear warming signal emerged in the central Greater Caucasus in the early 1990s, leading to a strong increase in ablation. In the absence of a compensating change in winter accumulation, the net mass balance of Djankuat has declined. The highest value of seasonal ablation on record was registered in the summer of 2000. At the beginning of the 21st century these trends reversed. Ablation was below average even in the summer of 2003, which was unusually warm in western Europe. Precipitation and winter accumulation were high, allowing for a partial recovery of net mass balance. The interannual variability in the components of mass balance is weakly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Scandinavian teleconnection patterns, but there is a clear link with the large-scale circulation anomalies represented by the Rossby pattern. Five synoptic categories have been identified for the ablation season of 2005, revealing a strong separation between components of radiation budget, air temperature and daily melt. Air temperature is the main control over melt. The highest values of daily ablation are related to the strongly positive NAO which forces high net radiation, and to the warm and moist advection from the Black Sea.

Long-term change in the organization of inventive activity

Relying on a quantitative analysis of the patenting and assignment behavior of inventors, we highlight the evolution of institutions that encouraged trade in technology and a growing division of labor between those who invented new technologies and those who exploited them commercially over the nineteenth and early-twentieth centuries. At the heart of this change in the organization of inventive activity was a set of familiar developments which had significant consequences for the supply and demand of inventions. On the supply side, the growing complexity and capital intensity of technology raised the amount of human and physical capital required for effective invention, making it increasingly desirable for individuals involved in this activity to specialize. On the demand side, the growing competitiveness of product markets induced firms to purchase or otherwise obtain the rights to technologies developed by others. These increasing incentives to differentiate the task of invention from that of commercializing new technologies depended for their realization upon the development of markets and other types of organizational supports for trade in technology. The evidence suggests that the necessary institutions evolved first in those regions of the country where early patenting activity had already been concentrated. A self-reinforcing process whereby high rates of inventive activity encouraged the evolution of a market for technology, which in turn encouraged greater specialization and productivity at invention as individuals found it increasingly feasible to sell and license their discoveries, appears to have been operating. This market trade in technological information was an important contributor to the achievement of a high level of specialization at invention well before the rise of large-scale research laboratories in the twentieth century.

Long-term plasticity in interneurons of the dentate gyrus

Single interneurons influence thousands of postsynaptic principal cells, and the control of interneuronal excitability is an important regulator of the computational properties of the hippocampus. However, the mechanisms underlying long-term alterations in the input–output functions of interneurons are not fully understood. We report a mechanism of interneuronal plasticity that leads to the functional enhancement of the gain of glutamatergic inputs in the absence of long-term potentiation of the excitatory synaptic currents. Interneurons in the dentate gyrus exhibit a characteristic, limited (≈8 mV) depolarization of their resting membrane potential after high-frequency stimulation of the perforant path. The depolarization can be observed with either whole-cell or perforated patch electrodes, and it lasts in excess of 3 h. The long-term depolarization is specific to interneurons, because granule cells do not show it. The depolarization requires the activation of Ca2+-permeable α-amino-3-hydroxy-5-methyl-4-isoxazolepropionic acid (AMPA) receptors and the rise of intracellular Ca2+, but not N-methyl-d-aspartate (NMDA) receptor activation. Data on the maintenance of the depolarization point to a major role for a long-term change in the rate of electrogenic Na+/K+-ATPase pump function in interneurons. As a result of the depolarization, interneurons after the tetanus respond with action potential discharges to previously subthreshold excitatory postsynaptic potentials (EPSPs), even though the EPSPs are not potentiated. These results demonstrate that the plastic nature of the interneuronal resting membrane potential underlies a unique form of long-term regulation of the gain of excitatory inputs to γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA)ergic neurons.

Implications of long-term land-use change for the hydrology and solute budgets of small catchments in Amazonia

The replacement of undisturbed tropical forest with cattle pasture has the potential to greatly modify the hydrology of small watersheds and the fluxes of solutes. We examined the fluxes of water, Cl(-), NO(3)(-)-N: SO(4)(2--)-S, NH(4)(+)-N, Na(+), K(+), Mg(2+) and Ca(2+) in different flow paths in similar to 1 ha catchments of undisturbed open tropical rainforest and a 20 year-old pasture established from forest in the southwestern Brazilian Amazon state of Rondonia. Storm flow discharge was 18% of incident rainfall in pasture, but only 1% in forest. Quickflow predominated over baseflow in both catchments and in both wet and dry seasons. In the pasture, groundwater and quickflow were important flow paths for the export of all solutes. In the forest, quickflow was important for NO(3)(-)-N export, but all other solutes were exported primarily by groundwater outflow. Both catchments were sinks for SO(4)(2-)-S and Ca(2+), and sources of Na(+). The pasture catchment also lost K(+) and Mg(2+) because of higher overland flow frequency and volume and to cattle excrement. These results show that forest clearing dramatically influences small watershed hydrology by increasing quickflow and water export to streams. They also indicate that tropical forest watersheds are highly conservative for most solutes but that pastures continue to lose important cations even decades after deforestation and pasture establishment. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Interpreting change in human-nature and long term social relationships

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Ciências do Ambiente, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia.

Investigating the long term planning framework for the Galway Bay community from climate change.

This research looked at the scientific evidence available on climate change and in particular, projections on sea level rise which ranged from 0.5m to 2m by the end of the century. These projections were then considered in an Irish context. A review of current policy in Ireland revealed that there was no dedicated Government policy on climate change or coastal zone management. In terms of spatial planning policy, it became apparent that there was little or no guidance on climate change either at a national, regional or local level. Therefore, to determine the likely impacts of sea level rise in Ireland based on current spatial planning practice and policy, a scenario-building exercise was carried out for two case study areas in Galway Bay. The two case study areas were: Oranmore, a densely populated town located to the east of Inner Galway Bay; and Tawin Island, a rural dispersed community, located to the south east of Inner Galway Bay. A ‘best’ and ‘worse’ case scenario was envisaged for both areas in terms of sea level rise. In the absence of specific climate change policies it was projected that in the ‘best’ case scenario of 0.5m sea level rise, Tawin Island would suffer serious and adverse impacts while Oranmore was likely to experience slight to moderate impacts. However, in the ‘worse’ case scenario of a 2m sea level rise, it was likely that Tawin Island would be abandoned while many houses, businesses and infrastructure built within the floodplain of Oranmore Bay would be inundated and permanently flooded. In this regard, it was the author’s opinion that a strategic and integrated climate change policy and adaptation plan is vital for the island of Ireland that recognises the importance of integrated land use and spatial planning in terms of mitigation and adaptation to climate change.

Solar cycle 24: implications for energetic particles and long-term space climate change

The recent solar minimum was the longest and deepest of the space age, with the lowest average sunspot numbers for nearly a century. The Sun appears to be exiting a grand solar maximum (GSM) of activity which has persisted throughout the space age, and is headed into a significantly quieter period. Indeed, initial observations of solar cycle 24 (SC24) continue to show a relatively low heliospheric magnetic field strength and sunspot number (R), despite the average latitude of sunspots and the inclination of the heliospheric current sheet showing the rise to solar maximum is well underway. We extrapolate the available SC24 observations forward in time by assuming R will continue to follow a similar form to previous cycles, despite the end of the GSM, and predict a very weak cycle 24, with R peaking at ∼65–75 around the middle/end of 2012. Similarly, we estimate the heliospheric magnetic field strength will peak around 6nT. We estimate that average galactic cosmic ray fluxes above 1GV rigidity will be ∼10% higher in SC24 than SC23 and that the probability of a large SEP event during this cycle is 0.8, compared to 0.5 for SC23. Comparison of the SC24 R estimates with previous ends of GSMs inferred from 9300 years of cosmogenic isotope data places the current evolution of the Sun and heliosphere in the lowest 5% of cases, suggesting Maunder Minimum conditions are likely within the next 40 years.

Loss of the Ability to Control Right-to-Left Shunt Does Not Influence the Metabolic Responses to Temperature Change or Long-Term Fasting in the South American Rattlesnake Crotalus durissus

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Weight Training, Aerobic Physical Activities, and Long-Term Waist Circumference Change in Men

ObjectiveFindings on weight training and waist circumference (WC) change are controversial. This study examined prospectively whether weight training, moderate to vigorous aerobic activity (MVAA), and replacement of one activity for another were associated with favorable changes in WC and body weight (BW).MethodsPhysical activity, WC, and BW were reported in 1996 and 2008 in a cohort of 10,500 healthy U.S. men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study. Multiple linear regression models (partition/substitution) to assess these associations were used.ResultsAfter adjusting for potential confounders, a significant inverse dose-response relationship between weight training and WC change (P-trend<0.001) was observed. Less age-associated WC increase was seen with a 20-min/day activity increase; this benefit was significantly stronger for weight training (-0.67 cm, 95% CI -0.93, -0.41) than for MVAA (-0.33 cm, 95% CI -0.40, -0.27), other activities (-0.16 cm, 95% CI -0.28, -0.03), or TV watching (0.08 cm, 95% CI 0.05, 0.12). Substituting 20 min/day of weight training for any other discretionary activity had the strongest inverse association with WC change. MVAA had the strongest inverse association with BW change (-0.23 kg, 95% CI -0.29, -0.17).ConclusionsAmong various activities, weight training had the strongest association with less WC increase. Studies on frequency/volume of weight training and WC change are warranted.

Role of the stratospheric dynamics in the southern hemisphere long-term climate change

Il raffreddamento stratosferico associato alla riduzione dell’ozono nelle regioni polari induce un rafforzamento dei venti occidentali nella bassa stratosfera, uno spostamento verso il polo e un’intensificazione del jet troposferico delle medie latitudini. Si riscontra una proiezione di questi cambiamenti a lungo termine sulla polarità ad alto indice di un modo di variabilità climatica, il Southern Annular Mode, alla superficie, dove i venti occidentali alle medie latitudini guidano la Corrente Circumpolare Antartica influenzando la circolazione oceanica meridionale e probabilmente l’estensione del ghiaccio marino ed i flussi di carbonio aria-mare nell’Oceano Meridionale. Una limitata rappresentazione dei processi stratosferici nei modelli climatici per la simulazione del passato e la previsione dei cambiamenti climatici futuri, sembrerebbe portare ad un errore nella rappresentazione dei cambiamenti troposferici a lungo termine nelle rispettive simulazioni. In questa tesi viene condotta un’analisi multi-model mettendo insieme i dati di output derivati da diverse simulazioni di modelli climatici accoppiati oceano-atmosfera, che partecipano al progetto CMIP5, con l'obiettivo di comprendere come le diverse rappresentazioni della dinamica stratosferica possano portare ad una differente rappresentazione dei cambiamenti climatici alla superficie. Vengono utilizzati modelli “High Top” (HT), che hanno una buona rappresentazione della dinamica stratosferica, e modelli “Low Top” (LT), che invece non ne hanno. I risultati vengono confrontati con le reanalisi meteorologiche globali disponibili (ERA-40). Viene mostrato come la rappresentazione e l’intensità del raffreddamento radiativo iniziale e di quello dinamico nella bassa stratosfera, nei modelli, siano i fattori chiave che controllano la successiva risposta troposferica, e come il raffreddamento stesso dipenda dalla rappresentazione della dinamica stratosferica. Si cerca inoltre di differenziare i modelli in base alla loro rappresentazione del raffreddamento radiativo e dinamico nella bassa stratosfera e alla risposta del jet troposferico. Nei modelli, si riscontra che il trend del jet nell'intera troposfera è significativamente correlato linearmente al raffreddamento stesso della bassa stratosfera.