Estudo empírico sobre insolvências no setor de alojamento e restauração

Mestrado em Contabilidade e Análise Financeira

Choice of Contracts in the British National Health Service: An Empirical Study

Following major reforms of the British National Health Service (NHS) in 1990, the roles of purchasing and providing health services were separated, with the relationship between purchasers and providers governed by contracts. Using a mixed multinomial logit analysis, we show how this policy shift led to a selection of contracts that is consistent with the predictions of a simple model, based on contract theory, in which the characteristics of the health services being purchased and of the contracting parties influence the choice of contract form. The paper thus provides evidence in support of the practical relevance of theory in understanding health care market reform.

Pre-Election Positions and Voting Behaviour in Parliament: Consistency among Swiss MPs

This article examines the determinants of positional incongruence between pre-election statements and post-election behaviour in the Swiss parliament between 2003 and 2009. The question is examined at the individual MP level, which is appropriate for dispersion-of-powers systems like Switzerland. While the overall rate of political congruence reaches about 85%, a multilevel logit analysis detects the underlying factors which push or curb a candidate's propensity to change his or her mind once elected. The results show that positional changes are more likely when (1) MPs are freshmen, (2) individual voting behaviour is invisible to the public, (3) the electoral district magnitude is not small, (4) the vote is not about a party's core issue, (5) the MP belongs to a party which is located in the political centre, and (6) if the pre-election statement dissents from the majority position of the legislative party group. Of these factors, the last one is paramount.

De lo micro a lo macro prudencial: Un análisis de la supervisión bancaria desde la econometría espacial

La crisis que se desató en el mercado hipotecario en Estados Unidos en 2008 y que logró propagarse a lo largo de todo sistema financiero, dejó en evidencia el nivel de interconexión que actualmente existe entre las entidades del sector y sus relaciones con el sector productivo, dejando en evidencia la necesidad de identificar y caracterizar el riesgo sistémico inherente al sistema, para que de esta forma las entidades reguladoras busquen una estabilidad tanto individual, como del sistema en general. El presente documento muestra, a través de un modelo que combina el poder informativo de las redes y su adecuación a un modelo espacial auto regresivo (tipo panel), la importancia de incorporar al enfoque micro-prudencial (propuesto en Basilea II), una variable que capture el efecto de estar conectado con otras entidades, realizando así un análisis macro-prudencial (propuesto en Basilea III).

Do consumers want public or private bodies to monitor animal friendly production and marketing schemes? And does trust matter?

Producing according to enhanced farm animal welfare (FAW) standards increases costs along the livestock value chain, especially for monitoring certified animal friendly products. In the choice between public or private bodies for carrying out and monitoring certification, consumer preferences and trust play a role. We explore this issue by applying logit analysis involving socio-economic and psychometric variables to survey data from Italy. Results identify marked consumer preferences for public bodies and trust in stakeholders a key determinant.

Pre-Election Positions and Voting Behaviour in Parliament: Consistency among Swiss MPs

This article examines the determinants of positional incongruence between pre-election statements and post-election behaviour in the Swiss parliament between 2003 and 2009. The question is examined at the individual MP level, which is appropriate for dispersion-of-powers systems like Switzerland. While the overall rate of political congruence reaches about 85%, a multilevel logit analysis detects the underlying factors which push or curb a candidate's propensity to change his or her mind once elected. The results show that positional changes are more likely when (1) MPs are freshmen, (2) individual voting behaviour is invisible to the public, (3) the electoral district magnitude is not small, (4) the vote is not about a party's core issue, (5) the MP belongs to a party which is located in the political centre, and (6) if the pre-election statement dissents from the majority position of the legislative party group. Of these factors, the last one is paramount.

The Psychological Outcome of Religious Coping with Stressful Life Events in a Swiss Sample of Church Attendees

Background: Recent research suggested thatreligious coping, based on dispositional religiousness and spirituality (R/S), is an important modulating factor in the process of dealing with adversity. In contrast to the United States, the effect of R/S on psychological adjustment to stress is a widely unexplored area in Europe. Methods: We examined a Swiss sample of 328 church attendees in the aftermath of stressful life events to explore associations of positive or negative religious coping with the psychological outcome. Applying a cross-sectional design, we used Huber’s Centrality Scale to specify religiousness and Pargament’s measure of religious coping (RCOPE) for the assessment of positive and negative religious coping. Depressive symptoms and anxiety as outcome variables were examined by the Brief Symptom Inventory. The Stress-Related Growth Scale and the Marburg questionnaire for the assessment of well-being were used to assess positive outcome aspects. We conducted Mann-Whitney tests for group comparisons and cumulative logit analysis for the assessmentof associations of religious coping with our outcome variables. Results: Both forms of religious coping were positively associated with stress-related growth (p < 0.01). However, negative religious coping additionally reduced well-being (p = 0.05, β = 0.52, 95% CI = 0.27–0.99) and increased anxiety (p = 0.02, β = 1.94, 95% CI = 1.10–3.39) and depressive symptoms (p = 0.01, β = 2.27, 95% CI = 1.27–4.06). Conclusions: The effects of religious coping on the psychological adjustment to stressful life events seem relevant. These findings should be confirmed in prospective studies.

Shirking and Motivation in Firms: Survey Evidence on Worker Attitudes

In an extensive national survey, 82.7% of the respondents report that they are very likely to keep an agreement to work hard if they agreed to, even if it was almost impossible for their employer to monitor them. Based on mean responses, the rank order of motivations in descending importance is: moral, intrinsic, peer-pressure, and positive incentives. Respondents also report that fairness considerations are important and that they are especially likely to keep agreements to do a good job with honest employers. Logit analysis indicates that increases in moral and intrinsic motivations increase the likelihood of keeping agreements to provide effort. The evidence suggests that we need to re-examine a foundational assumption underlying the theory of the firm.

Corporate restructuring: empirical evidence from the UK

Corporate restructuring is perceived as a challenge to research. Prior studies do not provide conclusive evidence regarding the effects of restructuring. Since there are discernible findings, this research attempts to examine the effects of restructuring events amongst the UK listed firms. The sample firms are listed in the LSE and London AIM stock exchange. Only completed restructuring transactions are included in the study. The time horizon extends from year 1999 to 2003. A three-year floating window is assigned to examine the sample firms. The key enquiry is to scrutinise the ex post effects of restructuring on performance and value measures of firms with contrast to a matched criteria non-restructured sample. A cross sectional study employing logit estimate is undertaken to examine firm characteristics of restructuring samples. Further, additional parameters, i.e. Conditional Volatility and Asymmetry are generated under the GJR-GARCH estimate and reiterated in logit models to capture time-varying heteroscedasticity of the samples. This research incorporates most forms of restructurings, while prior studies have examined certain forms of restructuring. Particularly, these studies have made limited attempts to examine different restructuring events simultaneously. In addition to logit analysis, an event study is adopted to evaluate the announcement effect of restructuring under both the OLS and GJR-GARCH estimate supplementing our prior results. By engaging a composite empirical framework, our estimation method validates a full appreciation of restructuring effect. The study provides evidence that restructurings indicate non-trivial significant positive effect. There are some evidences that the response differs because of the types of restructuring, particularly while event study is applied. The results establish that performance measures, i.e. Operating Profit Margin, Return on Equity, Return on Assets, Growth, Size, Profit Margin and Shareholders' Ownership indicate consistent and significant increase. However, Leverage and Asset Turn Over suggest reasonable influence on restructuring across the sample period. Similarly, value measures, i.e. Abnormal Returns, Return on Equity and Cash Flow Margin suggest sizeable improvement. A notable characteristic seen coherently throughout the analysis is the decreasing proportion of Systematic Risk. Consistent with these findings, Conditional Volatility and Asymmetry exhibit similar trend. The event study analysis suggests that on an average market perceives restructuring favourably and shareholders experience significant and systematic positive gain.

Consumer ethnocentrism in the German market

Purpose - International marketing researchers have long been concerned with determining whether consumers are predisposed towards a preference for domestic products, as opposed to foreign products. The purpose of this paper is to assess such a domestic-country bias (DCB) in the German market. Design/methodology/approach - This study empirically investigates DCB across six countries and 14 product categories in the Germany market. By so doing, it replicates an earlier study conducted in the UK. Ordered logit analysis was employed as well as multidimensional unfolding to present results. Findings - As in the study conducted in the UK, there is in general a strong DCB in the German market. However, it differs largely across the 14 product categories. Results indicate that consumer preference rankings can best be explained by a combination of demographic variables and country-of-origin effects. Practical implications - Results indicate that domestic firms in Germany can well rely on a safeguarding effect when marketing their products. At the same time, managers from foreign countries cannot rely on consumer ethnocentrism as a reliable indicator of the inclination of consumers to downgrade their products. Originality/value - This study confirms some findings from the UK. However, results from Germany indicate that at least economic competitiveness of the country-of-origin plays a role in determining respondents' judgments. This study underlines the value of replication studies in cross-cultural settings in particular.

Revisiting a destination: A tourist’s choice model : A case study of Sweden

This paper documents the design and results of a study on tourists’ decision-making about destinations in Sweden. For this purpose, secondary data, available from surveys were used to identify which type of individual has the highest probability to revisit a destination and what are influencing factors to do so. A binary logit model is applied. The results show that very important influencing factors are the length of stay as well as the origin of the individual. These results could be useful for a marketing organization as well as for policy, to develop strategies to attract the most profitable tourism segment. Therefore, it can also be a great support for sustainable tourism development, where the main focus does not has priority on increasing number of tourists.

Willingness of Sri Lankan farmers to pay for a scheme to conserve elephants: An empirical analysis

This paper explores the feasibility of adopting an integrated economic approach to raise farmers’ tolerance of the presence of elephants on their farming lands. Responses to this approach were sought from a sample of farmers in the areas affected by human elephant conflict in the northwestern province of Sri Lanka. Results from a contingent valuation survey of their willingness to pay for a scheme to conserve elephants are also reported. Two separate logit regression analyses were undertaken to examine the factors that influence the farmers’ responses for the payment principle question and their opinions on the integrated economic approach. Although found that the majority of the respondents expressed their willingness to pay for the proposed scheme and supported for the implementation of the integrated approach, we have insufficient data yet to determine if their support and financial contribution would be sufficient to set up this programme and also to predict its economic viability. Nevertheless, the overall finding of this study provides an improved economic assessment of the farmers’ attitudes towards the wild elephant in Sri Lanka. At the same time the study shows that, contrary to commonly held assumptions, farmers in this developing country, do support wildlife conservation.

Comparative analysis between statistical and artificial intelligence models in business failure prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

Comparative Analysis between Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Models in Business Failure Prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.