Modelling the likely impact of healthy eating guidelines on agricultural production and land use in England and Wales

Quadratic programming techniques were applied to household food consumption data in England and Wales to estimate likely changes in diet under healthy eating guidelines, and the consequences this would have on agriculture and land use in England and Wales. The first step entailed imposing nutrient restrictions on food consumption following dietary recommendations suggested by the UK Department of Health. The resulting diet was used, in a second step as a proxy for demand in agricultural commodities, to test the impact of such a scenario on food production and land use in England and Wales and the impacts of this on agricultural landscapes. Results of the diet optimisation indicated a large drop in consumption of foods rich in saturated fats and sugar, essentially cheese and sugar-based products, along with lesser cuts of fat and meat products. Conversely, consumption of fruit and vegetables, cereals, and flour would increase to meet dietary fibre recommendations. Such a shift in demand would dramatically affect production patterns: the financial net margin of England and Wales agriculture would rise, due to increased production of high market value and high economic margin crops. Some regions would, however, be negatively affected, mostly those dependent on beef cattle and sheep production that could not benefit from an increased demand for cereals and horticultural crops. The effects of these changes would also be felt in upstream industries, such as animal feed suppliers. While arable dominated landscapes would be little affected, pastoral landscapes would suffer through loss of grazing management and, possibly, land abandonment, especially in upland areas.

Increasing consumption of ultra-processed foods and likely impact on human health: evidence from Brazil

Objective: To assess time trends in the contribution of processed foods to food purchases made by Brazilian households and to explore the potential impact on the overall quality of the diet. Design: Application of a new classification of foodstuffs based on extent and purpose of food processing to data collected by comparable probabilistic household budget surveys. The classification assigns foodstuffs to the following groups: unprocessed/minimally processed foods (Group 1); processed culinary ingredients (Group 2); or ultra-processed ready-to-eat or ready-to-heat food products (Group 3). Setting: Eleven metropolitan areas of Brazil. Subjects: Households; n 13 611 in 1987-8, n 16 014 in 1995-5 and n 13 848 in 2002-3. Results: Over the last three decades, the household consumption of Group 1 and Group 2 foods has been steadily replaced by consumption of Group 3 ultra-processed food products, both overall and in lower- and upper-income groups. In the 2002-3 survey, Group 3 items represented more than one-quarter of total energy (more than one-third for higher-income households). The overall nutrient profile of Group 3 items, compared with that of Group 1 and Group 2 items, revealed more added sugar, more saturated fat, more sodium, less fibre and much higher energy density. Conclusions: The high energy density and the unfavourable nutrition profiling of Group 3 food products, and also their potential harmful effects on eating and drinking behaviours, indicate that governments and health authorities should use all possible methods, including legislation and statutory regulation, to halt and reverse the replacement of minimally processed foods and processed culinary ingredients by ultra-processed food products.

The fisheries of the Kyoga lakes and the likely impact on them by human activities in the catchment

A review of the historical development of the fishery resources of the Kyoga basin shows that the fishery based on the alien fishes which surplanted the indigenous species in the 1960's and early 1970's has been evolving. The record catches of the 19705 and early 1980's were mainly influenced by increased nutrient supply and enlarged lake volume. The sudden collapse in the fishery particularly of the Nile perch in the mid 1980's was most probably imposed by bad fishing regimes. However, future trends in the fisheries of the Kyoga basin will most likely be controlled by nutrient availability and dynamics as well as by the impact of mans activities in the Kyoga catchment.

Evaluation of the welfare impact of regulating mobile termination rates in Portugal

Following the European Commission’s 2009 Recommendation on the Regulatory Treatment of Fixed and Mobile Termination Rates in the EU, the Portuguese regulatory authority (ANACOM) decided to reduce termination prices in mobile networks to their long-run incremental cost (LRIC). Nevertheless, no serious quantitative assessment of the potential effects of this decision was carried out. In this paper, we adapt and calibrate the Harbord and Hoernig (2014) model of the UK mobile telephony market to the Portuguese reality, and simulate the likely impact on consumer surplus, profits and welfare of four different regulatory approaches: pure LRIC, reciprocal termination charges with fixed networks, “bill & keep”, and asymmetric termination rates. Our results show that reducing MTRs does increase social welfare, profits and consumer surplus in the fixed market, but mobile subscribers are seriously harmed by this decision.

The impact on general practitioners of the changing balance of care for elderly people living in institutions

Objectives: To describe utilisation of general practitioners by elderly people resident in communal establishments; to examine variations in general practitioner utilisation and estimate the likely impact of the “downsizing” of long stay provision in NHS hospitals.

The variability and predictors of quality of AIDS care services in Brazil

Background: Since establishing universal free access to antiretroviral therapy in 1996, the Brazilian Health System has increased the number of centers providing HIV/AIDS outpatient care from 33 to 540. There had been no formal monitoring of the quality of these services until a survey of 336 AIDS health centers across 7 Brazilian states was undertaken in 2002. Managers of the services were asked to assess their clinics according to parameters of service inputs and service delivery processes. This report analyzes the survey results and identifies predictors of the overall quality of service delivery. Methods: The survey involved completion of a multiple-choice questionnaire comprising 107 parameters of service inputs and processes of delivering care, with responses assessed according to their likely impact on service quality using a 3-point scale. K-means clustering was used to group these services according to their scored responses. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of high service quality. Results: The questionnaire was completed by 95.8% (322) of the managers of the sites surveyed. Most sites scored about 50% of the benchmark expectation. K-means clustering analysis identified four quality levels within which services could be grouped: 76 services (24%) were classed as level 1 (best), 53 (16%) as level 2 (medium), 113 (35%) as level 3 (poor), and 80 (25%) as level 4 (very poor). Parameters of service delivery processes were more important than those relating to service inputs for determining the quality classification. Predictors of quality services included larger care sites, specialization for HIV/AIDS, and location within large municipalities. Conclusion: The survey demonstrated highly variable levels of HIV/AIDS service quality across the sites. Many sites were found to have deficiencies in the processes of service delivery processes that could benefit from quality improvement initiatives. These findings could have implications for how HIV/AIDS services are planned in Brazil to achieve quality standards, such as for where service sites should be located, their size and staffing requirements. A set of service delivery indicators has been identified that could be used for routine monitoring of HIV/AIDS service delivery for HIV/AIDS in Brazil (and potentially in other similar settings).

Sustainable agriculture

This paper provides an overview of concepts of sustainable agriculture and possible methods of attaining sustainability of agricultural yields and production. Reasons are given as to why modern industrialised agriculture might be less sustainable in terms of yields than traditional agriculture. The question of whether organic agriculture is likely to be more sustainable than non-organic agriculture is considered as well as organic agriculture’s likely impact on wild biodiversity. The impact of the development of agriculture on wild biodiversity is assessed because some environmentalists see the conservation of wild biodiversity as an important ingredient of sustainable development. However, there is a policy conflict between conservationist groups. Some see intensive agriculture (including silviculture) as favourable to the conservation of wild biodiversity whereas others oppose such production methods as being unfavourable to wild biodiversity conservation. Reasons why modern industrialised agricultural systems are so widely adopted (and continue to be adopted) despite their apparent lack of sustainability are suggested. Market systems may tend to lock producers into unsustainable production methods.

Remitting behaviour of Nepalese rural-to-urban migrants: Implications for theory and policy

This article uses data for Nepal to test contemporary hypotheses about the remitting behaviour and associated motives of rural-to-urban migrants and to consider the likely impact of such remittances on rural development. Possibilities for inheritance, degree of family attachment, likelihood of eventual return to place of origin and family investment in the education of the migrants are found to be significant influences on levels of remittances by Nepalese migrants. However, in Nepal, remittances do not seem to result in long-term capital investment in rural areas and so may not promote long-term development of these areas.

Impacts on Safety of Left-Turn Treatment at High Speed Signalized Intersections, HR-347, 1994

Left-turning traffic is a major source of conflicts at intersections. Though an average of only 10% to 15% of all approach traffic turns left, these vehicles are involved in approximately 45% of all accidents. This report presents the results of research conducted to develop models which estimate approach accident rates at high speed signalized intersections. The objective of the research was to quantify the relationship between traffic and intersection characteristics, and accident potential of different left turn treatments. Geometric, turning movement counts, and traffic signal phasing data were collected at 100 intersections in Iowa using a questionnaire sent to municipalities. Not all questionnaires resulted in complete data and ultimately complete data were derived for 63 intersections providing a database of 248 approaches. Accident data for the same approaches were obtained from the Iowa Department of Transportation Accident Location and Analysis System (ALAS). Regression models were developed for two different dependent variables: 1) the ratio of the number of left turn accidents per approach to million left turning vehicles per approach, and 2) the ratio of accidents per approach to million traffic movements per approach. A number of regression models were developed for both dependent variables. One model using each dependent variable was developed for intersections with low, medium, and high left turning traffic volumes. As expected, the research indicates that protected left turn phasing has a lower accident potential than protected/permitted or permitted phasing. Left turn lanes and multiple lane approaches are beneficial for reducing accident rates, while raised medians increase the likelihood of accidents. Signals that are part of a signal system tend to have lower accident rates than isolated signals. The resulting regression models may be used to determine the likely impact of various left turn treatments on intersection accident rates. When designing an intersection approach, a traffic engineer may use the models to estimate the accident rate reduction as a result of improved lane configurations and left turn treatments. The safety benefits may then be compared to any costs associated with operational effects to the intersection (i.e., increased delay) to determine the benefits and costs of making intersection safety improvements.

Climate trends in the municipality of Pelotas, state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

ABSTRACTChanges in the frequency of occurrence of extreme weather events have been pointed out as a likely impact of global warming. In this context, this study aimed to detect climate change in series of extreme minimum and maximum air temperature of Pelotas, State of Rio Grande do Sul, (1896 - 2011) and its influence on the probability of occurrence of these variables. We used the general extreme value distribution (GEV) in its stationary and non-stationary forms. In the latter case, GEV parameters are variable over time. On the basis of goodness-of-fit tests and of the maximum likelihood method, the GEV model in which the location parameter increases over time presents the best fit of the daily minimum air temperature series. Such result describes a significant increase in the mean values of this variable, which indicates a potential reduction in the frequency of frosts. The daily maximum air temperature series is also described by a non-stationary model, whose location parameter decreases over time, and the scale parameter related to sample variance rises between the beginning and end of the series. This result indicates a drop in the mean of daily maximum air temperature values and increased dispersion of the sample data.

Concentrations et flux d'azote dans les sédiments hypoxiques de l'Estuaire Maritime du St-Laurent.

Les sédiments sont des sites importants d’élimination d’azote (N) puisqu’ils possèdent des gradients d’oxydoréduction leur conférant les conditions idéales pour les réactions microbiennes de transformation de N. L’eutrophisation des régions côtières peut altérer ces gradients, par des changements dans la concentration d’oxygène (O2) de l’eau interstitielle, et modifier l’importance relative des processus transformant le N. Afin de mieux comprendre comment l’O2 pourrait influencer les transformations de N, nous avons mesuré les flux diffusifs de diazote (N2), nitrate (NO3-), oxygène et ammonium (NH4+) dans les sédiments de l’Estuaire Maritime du St-Laurent (EMSL), et nous avons estimé les taux de dénitrification. L’importance du couple nitrification-dénitrification en fonction d’un gradient de concentrations d’O2 dans la zone d’hypoxie de l’EMSL fut aussi évaluée. La concentration des gaz dissous fut mesurée en utilisant une nouvelle approche développée dans cette étude. Les flux diffusifs de N2, O2, NO3- et NH4+ variaient de 5.5 à 8.8, de -37.1 à -84.8, de -4.0 à -5.8 et de 0.6 à 0.8 μmol N m-2 h-1 respectivement. Les concentrations de N2 et NO3- dans l’eau porale et les flux de NO3- et de N2 des sédiments, suggèrent que la diffusion de NO3- provenant de l’eau à la surface des sédiments ne peut pas expliquer par elle-même la production de N2 observée. En utilisant une approche stoichiométrique, les taux de nitrification potentielle estimés comptent pour 0.01 à 52% du flux total de NO3 nécessaire pour aboutir aux flux de N2 observés et diminuent avec l’augmentation de l’hypoxie.

La métrique de la juste peine : une analyse des décisions de justice prises par les acteurs judiciaires et le public

La thèse délaisse l’étude des biais, des erreurs et des influences externes qui modulent les décisions de justice et formule l’hypothèse que les individus, confrontés à un dilemme normatif (quelle serait la juste peine?), manifestent un souci de justice qu’il est pertinent d’analyser en lui-même. Les résultats de cette thèse indiquent qu’une proportion appréciable des choix et des jugements des citoyens et des acteurs judiciaires interrogés témoignent, en raison de leur cohérence interne et de leur modération, d’un souci manifeste de justice. Les données de la thèse s’appuient sur un sondage sentenciel dans lequel on demandait à des répondants du public (n=297), mais aussi à un échantillon d’acteurs judiciaires (n=235), de prendre des décisions de détermination pénale dans trois histoires de cas bien détaillées. La thèse s’intéresse à la détermination de la juste peine, laquelle incorpore trois prises de décision distinctes. Le premier chapitre de la thèse s’attarde à la qualité des échelles individuelles de sévérité des peines qui peuvent être infligées pour sanctionner un délinquant reconnu coupable d’actes criminels. Les résultats indiquent que les citoyens, tous comme les acteurs judiciaires, n’utilisent pas la même métrique pour statuer sur la sévérité des peines, mais que certains d’entre eux, font usage d’une métrique pénale plus cohérente et plus raisonnable que d’autres. Un test décisif pour jauger de la valeur d’une métrique est son aptitude à établir des équivalences pénales entre les peines de prison, de probation, de travaux communautaires et d’amendes. Le deuxième chapitre s’attarde à la qualité des choix sentenciels des citoyens et des acteurs judiciaires. Deux critères sont utilisés pour distinguer les sentences les plus justes : 1) le critère de proportionnalité ou de cohérence interne (les sentences données sont-elles toujours proportionnelles à la gravité de l’infraction commise ?); 2) le critère de modération ou de cohérence externe (la sentence donnée peut-elle rallier le plus grand nombre de points de vue?). Les deux critères sont importants parce qu’ils contribuent tous deux à réduire la marge d’incertitude du dilemme sentenciel. Le troisième chapitre prend acte que toute sentence fera possiblement l’objet d’un aménagement subséquent. Les formes les plus manifestes d’aménagement pénal sont régies par l’octroi d’une libération conditionnelle qui écourte la durée de peine qui sera purgée en prison. Certains acteurs judiciaires choisiront de tenir compte de cette libération anticipée en gonflant leur sentence, alors que d’autres se refuseront à le faire. Le dernier chapitre s’attarde aux raisons qui motivent leurs choix.

Land use for England and Wales: evaluation of management options to support 'good ecological status' in surface freshwaters

This paper analyses historic records of agricultural land use and management for England and Wales from 1931 and 1991 and uses export coefficient modelling to hindcast the impact of these practices on the rates of diffuse nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) export to water bodies for each of the major geo-climatic regions of England and Wales. Key trends indicate the importance of animal agriculture as a contributor to the total diffuse agricultural nutrient loading on waters, and the need to bring these sources under control if conditions suitable for sustaining 'Good Ecological Status' under the Water Framework Directive are to be generated. The analysis highlights the importance of measuring changes in nutrient loading in relation to the catchment-specific baseline state for different water bodies. The approach is also used to forecast the likely impact of broad regional scale scenarios on nutrient export to waters and highlights the need to take sensitive land out of production, introduce ceilings on fertilizer use and stocking densities, and controls on agricultural practice in higher risk areas where intensive agriculture is combined with a low intrinsic nutrient retention capacity, although the uncertainties associated with the modelling applied at this scale should be taken into account in the interpretation of model output. The paper advocates the need for a two-tiered approach to nutrient management, combining broad regional policies with targeted management in high risk areas at the catchment and farm scale.

Implications for food production, land use and rural development of the European Union's Single Farm Payment: Indications from a survey of farmers' intentions in Germany, Portugal and the UK

The 2003 reform of the European Union's (EU) Common Agricultural Policy introduced a decoupled income support for farmers called the Single Farm Payment (SFP). Concerns were raised about possible future land use and production changes and their impact on rural communities. Here, such concerns are considered against the workings of the SFP in three EU Member States. Various quantitative studies that have determined the likely impact of the SFP within the EU and the study countries are reviewed. We present the results of a farm survey conducted in the study countries in which farmers' responses to a decoupling scenario similar to the SFP were sought. We found that little short-term change was proposed in the three, rather different, study countries with only 30% of the farmers stating that they would alter their mix of farm activities. Furthermore, less than 30% of all respondents in each country would idle any land under decoupling. Of those who would adopt a new activity, the most popular choices were forestry, woodland and non-food crops. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.