The Devil’s Calculus: Mathematical Models of Civil War

In spite of the movement to turn political science into a real science, various mathematical methods that are now the staples of physics, biology, and even economics are thoroughly uncommon in political science, especially the study of civil war. This study seeks to apply such methods - specifically, ordinary differential equations (ODEs) - to model civil war based on what one might dub the capabilities school of thought, which roughly states that civil wars end only when one side’s ability to make war falls far enough to make peace truly attractive. I construct several different ODE-based models and then test them all to see which best predicts the instantaneous capabilities of both sides of the Sri Lankan civil war in the period from 1990 to 1994 given parameters and initial conditions. The model that the tests declare most accurate gives very accurate predictions of state military capabilities and reasonable short term predictions of cumulative deaths. Analysis of the model reveals the scale of the importance of rebel finances to the sustainability of insurgency, most notably that the number of troops required to put down the Tamil Tigers is reduced by nearly a full order of magnitude when Tiger foreign funding is stopped. The study thus demonstrates that accurate foresight may come of relatively simple dynamical models, and implies the great potential of advanced and currently unconventional non-statistical mathematical methods in political science.

Towards sustainable peace : peace-building and human security

Failed and fragile states that result from intrastate war pose severe threats to the security of both the international system and individual states alike. In the post-Cold War era, the international community has come to recognize the reality of these threats and the difficulty involved in ending violence and building sustainable peace in failed and fragile states. This work focuses upon the development of a comprehensive strategy for sustainable peace-building by incorporating the tenets of the human security doctrine into the peace-building process. Through the use of case studies of The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and East Timor, the development and refinement of the doctrine of human security will occur, as well as, an understanding of how and where human security fits into the sustainable peace-building equation. The end result of the analysis is the development of a hierarchical pyramid formation that brings together human security and peace-building into one framework that ultimately creates the foundation and structure of sustainable peace-building. With the development of a sustainable peace-building structure based upon the human security doctrine, the role of Canada in the support of sustainable peace-building is analyzed in relation to the form and level of involvement that Canada undertakes and contributes to in the implementation and support of sustainable peace-building initiatives. Following from this, recommendations are provided regarding what role(s) Canada should undertake in the sustainable peace-building process that take into consideration the present and likely future capabilities of Canada to be involved in various aspects of the peace-building process. ii This paper outlines the need for a peace-building strategy that is designed to be sustainable in order that failed and fragile states resulting from intrastate conflict do not regress or collapse back into a condition of civil war, and subsequently designs such a strategy. The linking of peace-building and human security creates the required framework from which sustainable peace-building is derived. Creating sustainable peace is necessary in order to increase the likelihood that both present and future generations existing in failed and fragile states will be spared from the scourge of intrastate war.

To see and to touch : God, honour, and irony in Shakespeare's English histories /

Failed and fragile states that result from intrastate war pose severe threats to the security of both the international system and individual states alike. In the post-Cold War era, the international community has come to recognize the reality of these threats and the difficulty involved in ending violence and building sustainable peace in failed and fragile states. This work focuses upon the development of a comprehensive strategy for sustainable peace-building by incorporating the tenets of the human security doctrine into the peace-building process. Through the use of case studies of The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and East Timor, the development and refinement of the doctrine of human security will occur, as well as, an understanding of how and where human security fits into the sustainable peace-building equation. The end result of the analysis is the development of a hierarchical pyramid formation that brings together human security and peace-building into one framework that ultimately creates the foundation and structure of sustainable peace-building. With the development of a sustainable peace-building structure based upon the human security doctrine, the role of Canada in the support of sustainable peace-building is analyzed in relation to the form and level of involvement that Canada undertakes and contributes to in the implementation and support of sustainable peace-building initiatives. Following from this, recommendations are provided regarding what role(s) Canada should undertake in the sustainable peace-building process that take into consideration the present and likely future capabilities of Canada to be involved in various aspects of the peace-building process. ii This paper outlines the need for a peace-building strategy that is designed to be sustainable in order that failed and fragile states resulting from intrastate conflict do not regress or collapse back into a condition of civil war, and subsequently designs such a strategy. The linking of peace-building and human security creates the required framework from which sustainable peace-building is derived. Creating sustainable peace is necessary in order to increase the likelihood that both present and future generations existing in failed and fragile states will be spared from the scourge of intrastate war.

Implicaciones humanitarias de la contratación de empresas militares privadas (PMC) por parte de los Estados. Estudio de caso; Estados Unidos y Blackwater en Irak (2003-2007)

La presente investigación tiene como finalidad analizar las implicaciones humanitarias de la participación de las Compañías Militares Privadas (PMC) contratadas por los Estados en escenarios de conflicto, a partir del caso de Blackwater y Estados Unidos en Irak (2003-2007), con el fin de mostrar a través de algunos hechos específicos como el acaecido en la plaza Al Nisour los vacíos existentes en la regulación de sus actividades. Frente a estos hechos se muestra como la Comunidad Internacional ha tratado de avanzar en la creación de un régimen internacional que las controle, sin embargo, como se evidencia a lo largo de este escrito la falta de compromiso por parte de los Estados ha hecho que esta tarea se vea obstaculizada y por lo tanto la actuación de estas compañías se encuentra aún en una zona jurídica gris.

Incidence of dementia and cause of death in elderly Japanese emigrants to Brazil before World War II

In 1997 we examined the prevalence of dementia among the Japanese elderly immigrants living in the Sao Paulo metropolitan area (n = 166). Herein, we followed up on these subjects for causes of death and dementia incidence. We were able to contact 108 subjects: 54 were already dead. The most common cause of death was cardiac disease. For dementia, 31.6% of the dead subjects were found to have developed dementia before they died, and 20.8% of the living subjects were demented. As for the baseline the clinical dementia rating (CDR), 20.8% of CDR 0 and 50.0% of CDR 0.5 subjects developed dementia in the dead group; whereas in the living group, 23.9% of CDR 0 and 52.6% of CDR 0.5 developed dementia. As a whole, the incidence was 34.2% per 1000 person-years. Cardiac disease as the most common cause of death was probably due to the higher prevalence of diabetes mellitus. Compared with the previous study, the lower incidence of dementia from the CDR 0.5 group may have been due to a higher mortality rate. This is the first study on the incidence of dementia in elderly Japanese immigrants in Brazil. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Education not war May Day 1968 Brisbane

Children on float during May Day march in Brisbane 1968. Banners say Education not war and Overseas for Peace Trade not war.

Kids in tram during No War Toys Christmas outing

Woman and children inside a tram during No War Toys Christmas party in Brisbane, Australia.

BWIU float with banner End War in Vietnam during Mayday march Brisbane 1965

BWIU with float End war in Vietnam during Mayday procession Brisbane, Australia, May 1965.