Constant interest rate projections without the curse of indeterminacy

Constant interest rate (CIR) projections are often criticized on the grounds that they are inconsistent with the existence of a unique equilibrium in a variety of forward-looking models. This note shows howto construct CIR projections that are not subject to that criticism, using a standard New Keynesian model as a reference framework.

A poetics of apprehension : indeterminacy in Gertrude Stein, Emily Dickinson and Caroline Bergvall

Ce mémoire examine les poétiques de trois poètes très différentes, mais dont les œuvres peuvent être qualifiées d'indéterminées et de radicales : Emily Dickinson (1830-1886), Gertrude Stein (1874-1946) et Caroline Bergvall (née en 1962). Dickinson et Stein sont anglo-américaines, tandis que Bergvall est d’origine franco-norvégienne, bien qu'elle choisisse d’écrire en anglais. Toutes les trois rompent la structure syntaxique conventionnelle de l’anglais par leurs poétiques, ce qui comporte des implications esthétiques et politiques. Dans ce qui suit, j’analyse l’indétermination de leurs poétiques à partir de la notion, décrite par Lyn Hejinian, de la description comme appréhension qui présente l’écriture comme un mode de connaissance plutôt qu'un moyen d’enregistrer ce que le poète sait déjà. La temporalité de cette activité épistémologique est donc celle du présent de l’écriture, elle lui est concomitante. J'affirme que c'est cette temporalité qui, en ouvrant l’écriture aux événements imprévus, aux vicissitudes, aux hésitations, aux erreurs et torsions de l’affect, cause l'indétermination de la poésie. Dans le premier chapitre, j'envisage l'appréhension chez Gertrude Stein à travers son engagement, tout au long de sa carrière, envers « le présent continu » de l’écriture. Le deuxième chapitre porte sur le sens angoissé de l’appréhension dans la poésie de Dickinson, où le malaise, en empêchant ou en refoulant une pensée, suspend la connaissance. Le langage, sollicité par une expérience qu'il ne peut lui-même exprimer, donne forme à l'indétermination. Un dernier chapitre considère l’indétermination linguistique du texte et de l’exposition Say Parsley, dans lesquels Bergvall met en scène l’appréhension du langage : une appréhension qui survient plutôt chez le lecteur ou spectateur que chez la poète.

Floral meristem indeterminacy depends on flower position and is facilitated by acarpellate gynoecium development in Impatiens balsamina

Floral meristems are generally determinate. Termination of their activity varies with species, occurring after carpel or ovule development, depending on the placentation type. In terminal flowering Impatiens balsamina (cv. Dwarf Bush Flowered) some flowers exhibit meristem indeterminacy; they produce organs from the placenta after ovule development. Here we provide a detailed description of gynoecium development in this line and explore the basis of the indeterminate nature of some of its floral meristems. We find that the placenta is sometimes established without complete carpel fusion. Proliferative growth derives from meristematic remnants of the placenta and is more common in the terminal inflorescence. RNA in situ hybridization reveals that IbLFY (Impatiens LFY homologue) is expressed in all meristem states, even in proliferating meristems. Expression of IbAG in axillary flowers is as expected in the meristem, stamens and carpels but absent from the proliferating meristem. We conclude that I. balsamina has cauline placentation. Incomplete suppression of inflorescence identity in flowers of the terminal inflorescence leads to floral meristem proliferation after ovule development in this species.

The hanging man: death, indeterminacy and the event

This article discusses approaches to the interpretation and analysis an event that is poised between reality and performance. It focuses upon a real event witnessed by the author while driving out of Los Angeles, USA. A body hanging on a rope from a bridge some 25/30 feet above the freeway held up the traffic. The status of the body was unclear. Was it the corpse of a dead human being or a stuffed dummy, a simulation of a death? Was it is tragic accident or suicide or was it a stunt, a protest or a performance? Whether a real body or not, it was an event: it drew an audience, it took place in a defined public space bound by time and it disrupted everyday normality and the familiar. The article debates how approaches to performance can engage with a shocking event, such as the Hanging Man, and the frameworks of interpretation that can be brought to bear on it. The analysis takes account of the function of memory in reconstructing the event, and the paradigms of cultural knowledge that offered themselves as parallels, comparators or distinctions against which the experience could be measured, such as the incidents of self-immolation related to demonstrations against the Vietnam War, the protest by the Irish Hunger Strikers and the visual impact of Anthony Gormley’s 2007 work, 'Event Horizon'. Theoretical frameworks deriving from analytical approaches to performance, media representation and ethical dilemmas are evaluated as means to assimilate an indeterminate and challenging event, and the notion of what an ‘event’ may be is itself addressed.

Attention, visual consciousness and indeterminacy

I propose a new argument showing that conscious vision sometimes depends constitutively on conscious attention. I criticise traditional arguments for this constitutive connection, on the basis that they fail adequately to dissociate evidence about visual consciousness from evidence about attention. On the same basis, I criticise Ned Block's recent counterargument that conscious vision is independent of one sort of attention (‘cognitive access'). Block appears to achieve the dissociation only because he underestimates the indeterminacy of visual consciousness. I then appeal to empirical work on the interaction between visual indeterminacy and attention, to argue for the constitutive connection.

Simulation-based Approach to Verification of Logical Descriptions with Functional Indeterminacy

A verification task of proving the equivalence of two descriptions of the same device is examined for the case, when one of the descriptions is partially defined. In this case, the verification task is reduced to checking out whether logical descriptions are equivalent on the domain of the incompletely defined one. Simulation-based approach to solving this task for different vector forms of description representations is proposed. Fast Boolean computations over Boolean and ternary vectors having big sizes underlie the offered methods.

Operating Model of Knowledge Quantum Engineering for Decision-Making in Conditions of Indeterminacy

The operating model of knowledge quantum engineering for identification and prognostic decision- making in conditions of α-indeterminacy is suggested in the article. The synthesized operating model solves three basic tasks: Аt-task to formalize tk-knowledge; Вt-task to recognize (identify) objects according to observed results; Сt-task to extrapolate (prognosticate) the observed results. Operating derivation of identification and prognostic decisions using authentic different-level algorithmic knowledge quantum (using tRAKZ-method) assumes synthesis of authentic knowledge quantum database (BtkZ) using induction operator as a system of implicative laws, and then using deduction operator according to the observed tk-knowledge and BtkZ a derivation of identification or prognostic decisions in a form of new tk-knowledge.

Sequential decision making with partially ordered preferences

This paper presents new insights and novel algorithms for strategy selection in sequential decision making with partially ordered preferences; that is, where some strategies may be incomparable with respect to expected utility. We assume that incomparability amongst strategies is caused by indeterminacy/imprecision in probability values. We investigate six criteria for consequentialist strategy selection: Gamma-Maximin, Gamma-Maximax, Gamma-Maximix, Interval Dominance, Maximality and E-admissibility. We focus on the popular decision tree and influence diagram representations. Algorithms resort to linear/multilinear programming; we describe implementation and experiments. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Satisfação com o trabalho em contexto organizacional: um estudo de caso, na Empresa de Eletricidade dos Açores

Dissertação de Mestrado, Sociologia, 24 de Março de 2014, Universidade dos Açores.

A Model of Near-Rational Exuberance

We study how the use of judgement or “add-factors” in forecasting may disturb the set of equilibrium outcomes when agents learn using recursive methods. We isolate conditions under which new phenomena, which we call exuberance equilibria, can exist in a standard self-referential environment. Local indeterminacy is not a requirement for existence. We construct a simple asset pricing example and find that exuberance equilibria, when they exist, can be extremely volatile relative to fundamental equilibria.

The Taylor Principle and (In-) Determinacy in a New Keynesian Model with hiring Frictions and Skill Loss

We introduce duration dependent skill decay among the unemployed into a New-Keynesian model with hiring frictions developed by Blanchard/Gali (2008). If the central bank responds only to (current, lagged or expected future) inflation and quarterly skill decay is above a threshold level, determinacy requires a coefficient on inflation smaller than one. The threshold level is plausible with little steady-state hiring and firing ("Continental European Calibration") but implausibly high in the opposite case ("American calibration"). Neither interest rate smoothing nor responding to the output gap helps to restore determinacy if skill decay exceeds the threshold level. However, a modest response to unemployment guarantees determinacy. Moreover, under indeterminacy, both an adverse sunspot shock and an adverse technology shock increase unemployment extremely persistently.

Heterogeneity as a coordination device

A model of directed search with a finite number of buyers and sellers is considered, where sellers compete in direct mechanisms. Buyer heterogeneity and Nash equilibrium results in perfect sorting. The restriction to complementary inputs, that the match value function Q is supermodular, in addition coordinates the sellers strategies. In that case, equilibrium implements positive assortative matching, which is efficient and consistent with the stable (cooperative equilibrium) outcome. This provides a non-cooperative and decentralizedsolution for the Assignment Game. Conversely, if buyers are identical, no such coordination is possible, and there is a continuum of equilibria, one of which exhibits price posting, another yields competition in auctions.

The biased balance: Observation, formalism and interpretation of a dissymmetric measuring device

This paper studies a balance whose unobservable fulcrum is not necessarilylocated at the middle of its two pans. It presents three differentmodels, showing how this lack of symmetry modifies the observation, theformalism and the interpretation of such a biased measuring device. Itargues that the biased balance can be an interesting source of inspirationfor broadening the representational theory of measurement.