Building better wildlife-habitat models

Wildlife-habitat models are an important tool in wildlife management toda?, and by far the majority of these predict aspects of species distribution (abundance or presence) as a proxy measure of habitat quality. Unfortunately, few are tested on independent data, and of those that are, few show useful predictive st;ill. We demonstrate that six critical assumptions underlie distribution based wildlife-habitat models, all of which must be valid for the model to predict habitat quality. We outline these assumptions in a mete-model, and discuss methods for their validation. Even where all sis assumptions show a high level of validity, there is still a strong likelihood that the model will not predict habitat quality. However, the meta-model does suggest habitat quality can be predicted more accurately if distributional data are ignored, and variables more indicative of habitat quality are modelled instead.

Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models

n the last two decades, interest in species distribution models (SDMs) of plants and animals has grown dramatically. Recent advances in SDMs allow us to potentially forecast anthropogenic effects on patterns of biodiversity at different spatial scales. However, some limitations still preclude the use of SDMs in many theoretical and practical applications. Here, we provide an overview of recent advances in this field, discuss the ecological principles and assumptions underpinning SDMs, and highlight critical limitations and decisions inherent in the construction and evaluation of SDMs. Particular emphasis is given to the use of SDMs for the assessment of climate change impacts and conservation management issues. We suggest new avenues for incorporating species migration, population dynamics, biotic interactions and community ecology into SDMs at multiple spatial scales. Addressing all these issues requires a better integration of SDMs with ecological theory.

Conservation of the Eurasian Lynx (Lynx lynx) in a fragmented landscape - habitat models, dispersal and potential distribution

Abstract: The expansion of a recovering population - whether re-introduced or spontaneously returning - is shaped by (i) biological (intrinsic) factors such as the land tenure system or dispersal, (ii) the distribution and availability of resources (e.g. prey), (iii) habitat and landscape features, and (iv) human attitudes and activities. In order to develop efficient conservation and recovery strategies, we need to understand all these factors and to predict the potential distribution and explore ways to reach it. An increased number of lynx in the north-western Swiss Alps in the nineties lead to a new controversy about the return of this cat. When the large carnivores were given legal protection in many European countries, most organizations and individuals promoting their protection did not foresee the consequences. Management plans describing how to handle conflicts with large predators are needed to find a balance between "overabundance" and extinction. Wildlife and conservation biologists need to evaluate the various threats confronting populations so that adequate management decisions can be taken. I developed a GIS probability model for the lynx, based on habitat information and radio-telemetry data from the Swiss Jura Mountains, in order to predict the potential distribution of the lynx in this mountain range, which is presently only partly occupied by lynx. Three of the 18 variables tested for each square kilometre describing land use, vegetation, and topography, qualified to predict the probability of lynx presence. The resulting map was evaluated with data from dispersing subadult lynx. Young lynx that were not able to establish home ranges in what was identified as good lynx habitat did not survive their first year of independence, whereas the only one that died in good lynx habitat was illegally killed. Radio-telemetry fixes are often used as input data to calibrate habitat models. Radio-telemetry is the only way to gather accurate and unbiased data on habitat use of elusive larger terrestrial mammals. However, it is time consuming and expensive, and can therefore only be applied in limited areas. Habitat models extrapolated over large areas can in turn be problematic, as habitat characteristics and availability may change from one area to the other. I analysed the predictive power of Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) in Switzerland with the lynx as focal species. According to my results, the optimal sampling strategy to predict species distribution in an Alpine area lacking available data would be to pool presence cells from contrasted regions (Jura Mountains, Alps), whereas in regions with a low ecological variance (Jura Mountains), only local presence cells should be used for the calibration of the model. Dispersal influences the dynamics and persistence of populations, the distribution and abundance of species, and gives the communities and ecosystems their characteristic texture in space and time. Between 1988 and 2001, the spatio-temporal behaviour of subadult Eurasian lynx in two re-introduced populations in Switzerland was studied, based on 39 juvenile lynx of which 24 were radio-tagged to understand the factors influencing dispersal. Subadults become independent from their mothers at the age of 8-11 months. No sex bias neither in the dispersal rate nor in the distance moved was detected. Lynx are conservative dispersers, compared to bear and wolf, and settled within or close to known lynx occurrences. Dispersal distances reached in the high lynx density population - shorter than those reported in other Eurasian lynx studies - are limited by habitat restriction hindering connections with neighbouring metapopulations. I postulated that high lynx density would lead to an expansion of the population and validated my predictions with data from the north-western Swiss Alps where about 1995 a strong increase in lynx abundance took place. The general hypothesis that high population density will foster the expansion of the population was not confirmed. This has consequences for the re-introduction and recovery of carnivores in a fragmented landscape. To establish a strong source population in one place might not be an optimal strategy. Rather, population nuclei should be founded in several neighbouring patches. Exchange between established neighbouring subpopulations will later on take place, as adult lynx show a higher propensity to cross barriers than subadults. To estimate the potential population size of the lynx in the Jura Mountains and to assess possible corridors between this population and adjacent areas, I adapted a habitat probability model for lynx distribution in the Jura Mountains with new environmental data and extrapolated it over the entire mountain range. The model predicts a breeding population ranging from 74-101 individuals and from 51-79 individuals when continuous habitat patches < 50 km2 are disregarded. The Jura Mountains could once be part of a metapopulation, as potential corridors exist to the adjoining areas (Alps, Vosges Mountains, and Black Forest). Monitoring of the population size, spatial expansion, and the genetic surveillance in the Jura Mountains must be continued, as the status of the population is still critical. ENFA was used to predict the potential distribution of lynx in the Alps. The resulting model divided the Alps into 37 suitable habitat patches ranging from 50 to 18,711 km2, covering a total area of about 93,600 km2. When using the range of lynx densities found in field studies in Switzerland, the Alps could host a population of 961 to 1,827 residents. The results of the cost-distance analysis revealed that all patches were within the reach of dispersing lynx, as the connection costs were in the range of dispersal cost of radio-tagged subadult lynx moving through unfavorable habitat. Thus, the whole Alps could once be considered as a metapopulation. But experience suggests that only few disperser will cross unsuitable areas and barriers. This low migration rate may seldom allow the spontaneous foundation of new populations in unsettled areas. As an alternative to natural dispersal, artificial transfer of individuals across the barriers should be considered. Wildlife biologists can play a crucial role in developing adaptive management experiments to help managers learning by trial. The case of the lynx in Switzerland is a good example of a fruitful cooperation between wildlife biologists, managers, decision makers and politician in an adaptive management process. This cooperation resulted in a Lynx Management Plan which was implemented in 2000 and updated in 2004 to give the cantons directives on how to handle lynx-related problems. This plan was put into practice e.g. in regard to translocation of lynx into unsettled areas. Résumé: L'expansion d'une population en phase de recolonisation, qu'elle soit issue de réintroductions ou d'un retour naturel dépend 1) de facteurs biologiques tels que le système social et le mode de dispersion, 2) de la distribution et la disponibilité des ressources (proies), 3) de l'habitat et des éléments du paysage, 4) de l'acceptation de l'espèce par la population locale et des activités humaines. Afin de pouvoir développer des stratégies efficaces de conservation et de favoriser la recolonisation, chacun de ces facteurs doit être pris en compte. En plus, la distribution potentielle de l'espèce doit pouvoir être déterminée et enfin, toutes les possibilités pour atteindre les objectifs, examinées. La phase de haute densité que la population de lynx a connue dans les années nonante dans le nord-ouest des Alpes suisses a donné lieu à une controverse assez vive. La protection du lynx dans de nombreux pays européens, promue par différentes organisations, a entraîné des conséquences inattendues; ces dernières montrent que tout plan de gestion doit impérativement indiquer des pistes quant à la manière de gérer les conflits, tout en trouvant un équilibre entre l'extinction et la surabondance de l'espèce. Les biologistes de la conservation et de la faune sauvage doivent pour cela évaluer les différents risques encourus par les populations de lynx, afin de pouvoir rapidement prendre les meilleuresmdécisions de gestion. Un modèle d'habitat pour le lynx, basé sur des caractéristiques de l'habitat et des données radio télémétriques collectées dans la chaîne du Jura, a été élaboré afin de prédire la distribution potentielle dans cette région, qui n'est que partiellement occupée par l'espèce. Trois des 18 variables testées, décrivant pour chaque kilomètre carré l'utilisation du sol, la végétation ainsi que la topographie, ont été retenues pour déterminer la probabilité de présence du lynx. La carte qui en résulte a été comparée aux données télémétriques de lynx subadultes en phase de dispersion. Les jeunes qui n'ont pas pu établir leur domaine vital dans l'habitat favorable prédit par le modèle n'ont pas survécu leur première année d'indépendance alors que le seul individu qui est mort dans l'habitat favorable a été braconné. Les données radio-télémétriques sont souvent utilisées pour l'étalonnage de modèles d'habitat. C'est un des seuls moyens à disposition qui permette de récolter des données non biaisées et précises sur l'occupation de l'habitat par des mammifères terrestres aux moeurs discrètes. Mais ces méthodes de- mandent un important investissement en moyens financiers et en temps et peuvent, de ce fait, n'être appliquées qu'à des zones limitées. Les modèles d'habitat sont ainsi souvent extrapolés à de grandes surfaces malgré le risque d'imprécision, qui résulte des variations des caractéristiques et de la disponibilité de l'habitat d'une zone à l'autre. Le pouvoir de prédiction de l'Analyse Ecologique de la Niche (AEN) dans les zones où les données de présence n'ont pas été prises en compte dans le calibrage du modèle a été analysée dans le cas du lynx en Suisse. D'après les résultats obtenus, la meilleure mé- thode pour prédire la distribution du lynx dans une zone alpine dépourvue d'indices de présence est de combiner des données provenant de régions contrastées (Alpes, Jura). Par contre, seules les données sur la présence locale de l'espèce doivent être utilisées pour les zones présentant une faible variance écologique tel que le Jura. La dispersion influence la dynamique et la stabilité des populations, la distribution et l'abondance des espèces et détermine les caractéristiques spatiales et temporelles des communautés vivantes et des écosystèmes. Entre 1988 et 2001, le comportement spatio-temporel de lynx eurasiens subadultes de deux populations réintroduites en Suisse a été étudié, basé sur le suivi de 39 individus juvéniles dont 24 étaient munis d'un collier émetteur, afin de déterminer les facteurs qui influencent la dispersion. Les subadultes se sont séparés de leur mère à l'âge de 8 à 11 mois. Le sexe n'a pas eu d'influence sur le nombre d'individus ayant dispersés et la distance parcourue au cours de la dispersion. Comparé à l'ours et au loup, le lynx reste très modéré dans ses mouvements de dispersion. Tous les individus ayant dispersés se sont établis à proximité ou dans des zones déjà occupées par des lynx. Les distances parcourues lors de la dispersion ont été plus courtes pour la population en phase de haute densité que celles relevées par les autres études de dispersion du lynx eurasien. Les zones d'habitat peu favorables et les barrières qui interrompent la connectivité entre les populations sont les principales entraves aux déplacements, lors de la dispersion. Dans un premier temps, nous avons fait l'hypothèse que les phases de haute densité favorisaient l'expansion des populations. Mais cette hypothèse a été infirmée par les résultats issus du suivi des lynx réalisé dans le nord-ouest des Alpes, où la population connaissait une phase de haute densité depuis 1995. Ce constat est important pour la conservation d'une population de carnivores dans un habitat fragmenté. Ainsi, instaurer une forte population source à un seul endroit n'est pas forcément la stratégie la plus judicieuse. Il est préférable d'établir des noyaux de populations dans des régions voisines où l'habitat est favorable. Des échanges entre des populations avoisinantes pourront avoir lieu par la suite car les lynx adultes sont plus enclins à franchir les barrières qui entravent leurs déplacements que les individus subadultes. Afin d'estimer la taille de la population de lynx dans le Jura et de déterminer les corridors potentiels entre cette région et les zones avoisinantes, un modèle d'habitat a été utilisé, basé sur un nouveau jeu de variables environnementales et extrapolé à l'ensemble du Jura. Le modèle prédit une population reproductrice de 74 à 101 individus et de 51 à 79 individus lorsque les surfaces d'habitat d'un seul tenant de moins de 50 km2 sont soustraites. Comme des corridors potentiels existent effectivement entre le Jura et les régions avoisinantes (Alpes, Vosges, et Forêt Noire), le Jura pourrait faire partie à l'avenir d'une métapopulation, lorsque les zones avoisinantes seront colonisées par l'espèce. La surveillance de la taille de la population, de son expansion spatiale et de sa structure génétique doit être maintenue car le statut de cette population est encore critique. L'AEN a également été utilisée pour prédire l'habitat favorable du lynx dans les Alpes. Le modèle qui en résulte divise les Alpes en 37 sous-unités d'habitat favorable dont la surface varie de 50 à 18'711 km2, pour une superficie totale de 93'600 km2. En utilisant le spectre des densités observées dans les études radio-télémétriques effectuées en Suisse, les Alpes pourraient accueillir une population de lynx résidents variant de 961 à 1'827 individus. Les résultats des analyses de connectivité montrent que les sous-unités d'habitat favorable se situent à des distances telles que le coût de la dispersion pour l'espèce est admissible. L'ensemble des Alpes pourrait donc un jour former une métapopulation. Mais l'expérience montre que très peu d'individus traverseront des habitats peu favorables et des barrières au cours de leur dispersion. Ce faible taux de migration rendra difficile toute nouvelle implantation de populations dans des zones inoccupées. Une solution alternative existe cependant : transférer artificiellement des individus d'une zone à l'autre. Les biologistes spécialistes de la faune sauvage peuvent jouer un rôle important et complémentaire pour les gestionnaires de la faune, en les aidant à mener des expériences de gestion par essai. Le cas du lynx en Suisse est un bel exemple d'une collaboration fructueuse entre biologistes de la faune sauvage, gestionnaires, organes décisionnaires et politiciens. Cette coopération a permis l'élaboration du Concept Lynx Suisse qui est entré en vigueur en 2000 et remis à jour en 2004. Ce plan donne des directives aux cantons pour appréhender la problématique du lynx. Il y a déjà eu des applications concrètes sur le terrain, notamment par des translocations d'individus dans des zones encore inoccupées.

Defining habitat characteristics influencing the distribution, density and growth of Plaice (Pleuronectes Platessa) and Dab (Limanda Limanda) on west of Ireland nursery grounds

Plaice (Pleuronectes platessa, L.) and dab (Limanda limanda, L.) are among the most abundant flatfishes in the north-eastern Atlantic region and the dominant species in shallow coastal nursery grounds. With increasing pressures on commercial flatfish stocks in combination with changing coastal environments, better knowledge of population dynamics during all life stages is needed to evaluate variability in year-class strength and recruitment to the fishery. The aim of this research was to investigate the complex interplay of biotic and abiotic habitat components influencing the distribution, density and growth of plaice and dab during the vulnerable juvenile life stage and to gain insight in spatial and temporal differences in nursery habitat quality along the west coast of Ireland. Intraspecific variability in plaice diet was observed at different spatial scales and showed a link with condition, recent growth and morphology. This highlights the effect of food availability on habitat quality and the need to consider small scale variation when attempting to link habitat quality to feeding, growth and condition of juvenile flatfish. There was evidence of trophic, spatial and temporal resource partitioning between juvenile plaice and dab allowing the co-existence of morphologically similar species in nursery grounds. In the limited survey years there was no evidence that the carrying capacity of the studied nursery grounds was reached but spatial and interannual variations in fish growth indicated fluctuating environments in terms of food availability, predator densities, sediment features and physico-chemical conditions. Predation was the most important factor affecting habitat quality for juvenile plaice and dab with crab densities negatively correlated to fish condition whereas shrimp densities were negatively associated with densities of small-sized juveniles in spring. A comparison of proxies for fish growth showed the advantage of Fulton’s K for routine use whereas RNA:DNA ratios proved less powerful when short-term environmental fluctuations are lacking. This study illustrated how distinct sets of habitat features can drive spatial variation in density and condition of juvenile flatfish highlighting the value of studying both variables when modeling habitat requirements. The habitat models generated in this study also provide a powerful tool to predict potential climate and anthropogenic impacts on the distribution and condition of juveniles in flatfish nurseries. The need for effective coastal zone management was emphasized to ensure a sustainable use of coastal resources and successful flatfish recruitment to the fishery.

Risk of Agricultural Practices and Habitat Change to Farmland Birds

Many common bird species have declined as a result of agricultural intensification and this could be mitigated by organic farming. We paired sites for habitat and geographical location on organic and nonorganic farms in Ontario, Canada to test a priori predictions of effects on birds overall, 9 guilds and 22 species in relation to candidate models for farming practices (13 variables), local habitat features (12 variables), or habitat features that influence susceptibility to predation. We found that: (1) Overall bird abundance, but not richness, was significantly (p < 0.05) higher on organic sites (mean 43.1 individuals per site) than nonorganic sites (35.8 individuals per site). Significantly more species of birds were observed for five guilds, including primary grassland birds, on organic vs. nonorganic sites. No guild had higher richness or abundance on nonorganic farms; (2) Farming practice models were the best (ΔAIC < 4) for abundance of birds overall, primary grassland bird richness, sallier aerial insectivore richness and abundance, and abundance of ground nesters; (3) Habitat models were the best for overall richness, Neotropical migrant abundance, richness and abundance of Ontario-USA-Mexico (short-distance) migrants and resident richness; (4) Predation models were the best for richness of secondary grassland birds and ground feeders; (5) A combination of variables from the model types were best for richness or abundance overall, 13 of 18 guilds (richness and abundance) and 16 of 22 species analyzed. Five of 10 farming practice variables (including herbicide use, organic farm type) and 9 of 13 habitat variables (including hedgerow length, proportion of hay) were significant in best models. Risk modeling indicated that herbicide use could decrease primary grassland birds by one species (35% decline from 3.4 to 2.3 species) per site. Organic farming could benefit species of conservation concern by 49% (an increase from 7.6 to 11.4 grassland birds). An addition of 63 m of hedgerow could increase abundance and richness of short distance migrants by 50% (3.0 to 4.8 and 1.3 to 2.0, respectively). Increasing the proportion of hay on nonorganic farms to 50% could increase abundance of primary grassland bird by 40% (6.7 to 9.4). Our results provide support for alternative farmland designs and agricultural management systems that could enhance select bird species in farmland.

Modeling Habitat Associations for the Common Loon (Gavia immer) at Multiple Scales in Northeastern North America

Common Loon (Gavia immer) is considered an emblematic and ecologically important example of aquatic-dependent wildlife in North America. The northern breeding range of Common Loon has contracted over the last century as a result of habitat degradation from human disturbance and lakeshore development. We focused on the state of New Hampshire, USA, where a long-term monitoring program conducted by the Loon Preservation Committee has been collecting biological data on Common Loon since 1976. The Common Loon population in New Hampshire is distributed throughout the state across a wide range of lake-specific habitats, water quality conditions, and levels of human disturbance. We used a multiscale approach to evaluate the association of Common Loon and breeding habitat within three natural physiographic ecoregions of New Hampshire. These multiple scales reflect Common Loon-specific extents such as territories, home ranges, and lake-landscape influences. We developed ecoregional multiscale models and compared them to single-scale models to evaluate model performance in distinguishing Common Loon breeding habitat. Based on information-theoretic criteria, there is empirical support for both multiscale and single-scale models across all three ecoregions, warranting a model-averaging approach. Our results suggest that the Common Loon responds to both ecological and anthropogenic factors at multiple scales when selecting breeding sites. These multiscale models can be used to identify and prioritize the conservation of preferred nesting habitat for Common Loon populations.

Golden-winged Warbler habitat model validation for northern Wisconsin and central Minnesota

Between 1966 and 2003, the Golden-winged Warbler (Vermivora chrysoptera) experienced declines of 3.4% per year in large parts of the breeding range and has been identified by Partners in Flight as one of 28 land birds requiring expedient action to prevent its continued decline. It is currently being considered for listing under the Endangered Species Act. A major step in advancing our understanding of the status and habitat preferences of Golden-winged Warbler populations in the Upper Midwest was initiated by the publication of new predictive spatially explicit Golden-winged Warbler habitat models for the northern Midwest. Here, I use original data on observed Golden-winged Warbler abundances in Wisconsin and Minnesota to compare two population models: the hierarchical spatial count (HSC) model with the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) model. I assessed how well the field data compared to the model predictions and found that within Wisconsin, the HSC model performed slightly better than the HSI model whereas both models performed relatively equally in Minnesota. For the HSC model, I found a 10% error of commission in Wisconsin and a 24.2% error of commission for Minnesota. Similarly, the HSI model has a 23% error of commission in Minnesota; in Wisconsin due to limited areas where the HSI model predicted absences, there was incomplete data and I was unable to determine the error of commission for the HSI model. These are sites where the model predicted presences and the Golden-winged Warbler did not occur. To compare predicted abundance from the two models, a 3x3 contingency table was used. I found that when overlapped, the models do not complement one another in identifying Golden-winged Warbler presences. To calculate discrepancy between the models, the error of commission shows that the HSI model has only a 6.8% chance of correctly classifying absences in the HSC model. The HSC model has only 3.3% chance of correctly classifying absences in the HSI model. These findings highlight the importance of grasses for nesting, shrubs used for cover and foraging, and trees for song perches and foraging as key habitat characteristics for breeding territory occupancy by singing males.

Scenario-based assessment of future land use change on butterfly species distributions

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to predict environmentally induced range shifts of habitats of plant and animal species. Consequently SDMs are valuable tools for scientifically based conservation decisions. The aims of this paper are (1) to identify important drivers of butterfly species persistence or extinction, and (2) to analyse the responses of endangered butterfly species of dry grasslands and wetlands to likely future landscape changes in Switzerland. Future land use was represented by four scenarios describing: (1) ongoing land use changes as observed at the end of the last century; (2) a liberalisation of the agricultural markets; (3) a slightly lowered agricultural production; and (4) a strongly lowered agricultural production. Two model approaches have been applied. The first (logistic regression with principal components) explains what environmental variables have significant impact on species presence (and absence). The second (predictive SDM) is used to project species distribution under current and likely future land uses. The results of the explanatory analyses reveal that four principal components related to urbanisation, abandonment of open land and intensive agricultural practices as well as two climate parameters are primary drivers of species occurrence (decline). The scenario analyses show that lowered agricultural production is likely to favour dry grassland species due to an increase of non-intensively used land, open canopy forests, and overgrown areas. In the liberalisation scenario dry grassland species show a decrease in abundance due to a strong increase of forested patches. Wetland butterfly species would decrease under all four scenarios as their habitats become overgrown

History matters: relating paths and rates of landscape change to butterfly species decline

Western European landscapes have drastically changed since the 1950s, with agricultural intensifications and the spread of urban settlements considered the most important drivers of this land-use/land-cover change. Losses of habitat for fauna and flora have been a direct consequence of this development. In the present study, we relate butterfly occurrence to land-use/land-cover changes over five decades between 1951 and 2000. The study area covers the entire Swiss territory. The 10 explanatory variables originate from agricultural statistics and censuses. Both state as well as rate was used as explanatory variables. Species distribution data were obtained from natural history collections. We selected eight butterfly species: four species occur on wetlands and four occur on dry grasslands. We used cluster analysis to track land-use/land-cover changes and to group communes based on similar trajectories of change. Generalized linear models were applied to identify factors that were significantly correlated with the persistence or disappearance of butterfly species. Results showed that decreasing agricultural areas and densities of farms with more than 10 ha of cultivated land are significantly related with wetland species decline, and increasing densities of livestock seem to have favored disappearance of dry grassland species. Moreover, we show that species declines are not only dependent on land-use/land-cover states but also on the rates of change; that is, the higher the transformation rate from small to large farms, the higher the loss of dry grassland species. We suggest that more attention should be paid to the rates of landscape change as feasible drivers of species change and derive some management suggestions.

Predicting global change impacts on plant species' distributions: Future challenges

Given the rate of projected environmental change for the 21st century, urgent adaptation and mitigation measures are required to slow down the on-going erosion of biodiversity. Even though increasing evidence shows that recent human-induced environmental changes have already triggered species' range shifts, changes in phenology and species' extinctions, accurate projections of species' responses to future environmental changes are more difficult to ascertain. This is problematic, since there is a growing awareness of the need to adopt proactive conservation planning measures using forecasts of species' responses to future environmental changes. There is a substantial body of literature describing and assessing the impacts of various scenarios of climate and land-use change on species' distributions. Model predictions include a wide range of assumptions and limitations that are widely acknowledged but compromise their use for developing reliable adaptation and mitigation strategies for biodiversity. Indeed, amongst the most used models, few, if any, explicitly deal with migration processes, the dynamics of population at the "trailing edge" of shifting populations, species' interactions and the interaction between the effects of climate and land-use. In this review, we propose two main avenues to progress the understanding and prediction of the different processes A occurring on the leading and trailing edge of the species' distribution in response to any global change phenomena. Deliberately focusing on plant species, we first explore the different ways to incorporate species' migration in the existing modelling approaches, given data and knowledge limitations and the dual effects of climate and land-use factors. Secondly, we explore the mechanisms and processes happening at the trailing edge of a shifting species' distribution and how to implement them into a modelling approach. We finally conclude this review with clear guidelines on how such modelling improvements will benefit conservation strategies in a changing world. (c) 2007 Rubel Foundation, ETH Zurich. Published by Elsevier GrnbH. All rights reserved.

Métropolisation, morphologie urbaine et développement durable : transformations urbaines et régulation de l'étalement : le cas de l'agglomération lausannoise

Résumé Métropolisation, morphologie urbaine et développement durable. Transformations urbaines et régulation de l'étalement : le cas de l'agglomération lausannoise. Cette thèse s'inscrit clans la perspective d'une analyse stratégique visant à un définir et à expliciter les liens entre connaissance, expertise et décision politique. L'hypothèse fondamentale qui oriente l'ensemble de ce travail est la suivante : le régime d'urbanisation qui s'est imposé au cours des trente dernières années correspond à une transformation du principe morphogénétique de développement spatial des agglomérations qui tend à alourdir leurs bilans écologiques et à péjorer la qualité du cadre de vie des citadins. Ces enjeux environnementaux liés aux changements urbains et singulièrement ceux de la forme urbaine constituent un thème de plus en plus important dans la recherche de solutions d'aménagement urbain dans une perspective de développement durable. Dans ce contexte, l'aménagement urbain devient un mode d'action et une composante de tout premier ordre des politiques publiques visant un développement durable à l'échelle locale et globale. Ces modalités de développement spatial des agglomérations émergent indiscutablement au coeur de la problématique environnementale. Or si le concept de développement durable nous livre une nouvelle de de lecture des territoires et de ses transformations, en prônant le modèle de la ville compacte et son corollaire la densification, la traduction à donner à ce principe stratégique reste controversée, notamment sous l'angle de l'aménagement du territoire et des stratégies de développement urbain permettant une mise en oeuvre adéquate des solutions proposées. Nous avons ainsi tenté dans ce travail de répondre à un certain nombre de questions : quelle validité accorder au modèle de la ville compacte ? La densification est-elle une réponse adéquate ? Si oui, sous quelles modalités ? Quelles sont, en termes de stratégies d'aménagement, les alternatives durables au modèle de la ville étalée ? Faut-il vraiment densifier ou simplement maîtriser la dispersion ? Notre objectif principal étant in fine de déterminer les orientations et contenus urbanistiques de politiques publiques visant à réguler l'étalement urbain, de valider la faisabilité de ces principes et à définir les conditions de leur mise en place dans le cas d'une agglomération. Pour cela, et après avoir choisi l'agglomération lausannoise comme terrain d'expérimentation, trois approches complémentaires se sont révélées indispensables dans ce travail 1. une approche théorique visant à définir un cadre conceptuel interdisciplinaire d'analyse du phénomène urbain dans ses rapports à la problématique du développement durable liant régime d'urbanisation - forme urbaine - développement durable ; 2. une approche méthodologique proposant des outils d'analyse simples et efficaces de description des nouvelles morphologies urbaines pour une meilleure gestion de l'environnement urbain et de la pratique de l'aménagement urbain ; 3. une approche pragmatique visant à approfondir la réflexion sur la ville étalée en passant d'une approche descriptive des conséquences du nouveau régime d'urbanisation à une approche opérationnelle, visant à identifier les lignes d'actions possibles dans une perspective de développement durable. Cette démarche d'analyse nous a conduits à trois résultats majeurs, nous permettant de définir une stratégie de lutte contre l'étalement. Premièrement, si la densification est acceptée comme un objectif stratégique de l'aménagement urbain, le modèle de la ville dense ne peut être appliqué saris la prise en considération d'autres objectifs d'aménagement. Il ne suffit pas de densifier pour réduire l'empreinte écologique de la ville et améliorer la qualité de vie des citadins. La recherche d'une forme urbaine plus durable est tributaire d'une multiplicité de facteurs et d'effets de synergie et la maîtrise des effets négatifs de l'étalement urbain passe par la mise en oeuvre de politiques urbaines intégrées et concertées, comme par exemple prôner la densification qualifiée comme résultante d'un processus finalisé, intégrer et valoriser les transports collectifs et encore plus la métrique pédestre avec l'aménagement urbain, intégrer systématiquement la diversité à travers les dimensions physique et sociale du territoire. Deuxièmement, l'avenir de ces territoires étalés n'est pas figé. Notre enquête de terrain a montré une évolution des modes d'habitat liée aux modes de vie, à l'organisation du travail, à la mobilité, qui font que l'on peut penser à un retour d'une partie de la population dans les villes centres (fin de la toute puissance du modèle de la maison individuelle). Ainsi, le diagnostic et la recherche de solutions d'aménagement efficaces et viables ne peuvent être dissociés des demandes des habitants et des comportements des acteurs de la production du cadre bâti. Dans cette perspective, tout programme d'urbanisme doit nécessairement s'appuyer sur la connaissance des aspirations de la population. Troisièmement, la réussite de la mise en oeuvre d'une politique globale de maîtrise des effets négatifs de l'étalement urbain est fortement conditionnée par l'adaptation de l'offre immobilière à la demande de nouveaux modèles d'habitat répondant à la fois à la nécessité d'une maîtrise des coûts de l'urbanisation (économiques, sociaux, environnementaux), ainsi qu'aux aspirations émergentes des ménages. Ces résultats nous ont permis de définir les orientations d'une stratégie de lutte contre l'étalement, dont nous avons testé la faisabilité ainsi que les conditions de mise en oeuvre sur le territoire de l'agglomération lausannoise. Abstract This dissertation participates in the perspective of a strategic analysis aiming at specifying the links between knowledge, expertise and political decision, The fundamental hypothesis directing this study assumes that the urban dynamics that has characterized the past thirty years signifies a trans-formation of the morphogenetic principle of agglomerations' spatial development that results in a worsening of their ecological balance and of city dwellers' quality of life. The environmental implications linked to urban changes and particularly to changes in urban form constitute an ever greater share of research into sustainable urban planning solutions. In this context, urban planning becomes a mode of action and an essential component of public policies aiming at local and global sustainable development. These patterns of spatial development indisputably emerge at the heart of environmental issues. If the concept of sustainable development provides us with new understanding into territories and their transformations, by arguing in favor of densification, its concretization remains at issue, especially in terms of urban planning and of urban development strategies allowing the appropriate implementations of the solutions offered. Thus, this study tries to answer a certain number of questions: what validity should be granted to the model of the dense city? Is densification an adequate answer? If so, under what terms? What are the sustainable alternatives to urban sprawl in terms of planning strategies? Should densification really be pursued or should we simply try to master urban sprawl? Our main objective being in fine to determine the directions and urban con-tents of public policies aiming at regulating urban sprawl, to validate the feasibility of these principles and to define the conditions of their implementation in the case of one agglomeration. Once the Lausanne agglomeration had been chosen as experimentation field, three complementary approaches proved to be essential to this study: 1. a theoretical approach aiming at definying an interdisciplinary conceptual framework of the ur-ban phenomenon in its relation to sustainable development linking urban dynamics - urban form - sustainable development ; 2. a methodological approach proposing simple and effective tools for analyzing and describing new urban morphologies for a better management of the urban environment and of urban planning practices 3. a pragmatic approach aiming at deepening reflection on urban sprawl by switching from a descriptive approach of the consequences of the new urban dynamics to an operational approach, aiming at identifying possible avenues of action respecting the principles of sustainable development. This analysis approach provided us with three major results, allowing us to define a strategy to cur-tail urban sprawl. First, if densification is accepted as a strategic objective of urban planning, the model of the dense city can not be applied without taking into consideration other urban planning objectives. Densification does not suffice to reduce the ecological impact of the city and improve the quality of life of its dwellers. The search for a more sustainable urban form depends on a multitude of factors and effects of synergy. Reducing the negative effects of urban sprawl requires the implementation of integrated and concerted urban policies, like for example encouraging densification qualified as resulting from a finalized process, integrating and developing collective forms of transportation and even more so the pedestrian metric with urban planning, integrating diversity on a systematic basis through the physical and social dimensions of the territory. Second, the future of such sprawling territories is not fixed. Our research on the ground revea-led an evolution in the modes of habitat related to ways of life, work organization and mobility that suggest the possibility of the return of a part of the population to the center of cities (end of the rule of the model of the individual home). Thus, the diagnosis and the search for effective and sustainable solutions can not be conceived of independently of the needs of the inhabitants and of the behavior of the actors behind the production of the built territory. In this perspective, any urban program must necessarily be based upon the knowledge of the population's wishes. Third, the successful implementation of a global policy of control of urban sprawl's negative effects is highly influenced by the adaptation of property offer to the demand of new habitat models satisfying both the necessity of urbanization cost controls (economical, social, environ-mental) and people's emerging aspirations. These results allowed us to define a strategy to cur-tail urban sprawl. Its feasibility and conditions of implementation were tested on the territory of the Lausanne agglomeration.

Forest Policy Scenario Analysis: Sensitivity of Songbird Community to Changes in Forest Cover Amount and Configuration

Changes in mature forest cover amount, composition, and configuration can be of significant consequence to wildlife populations. The response of wildlife to forest patterns is of concern to forest managers because it lies at the heart of such competing approaches to forest planning as aggregated vs. dispersed harvest block layouts. In this study, we developed a species assessment framework to evaluate the outcomes of forest management scenarios on biodiversity conservation objectives. Scenarios were assessed in the context of a broad range of forest structures and patterns that would be expected to occur under natural disturbance and succession processes. Spatial habitat models were used to predict the effects of varying degrees of mature forest cover amount, composition, and configuration on habitat occupancy for a set of 13 focal songbird species. We used a spatially explicit harvest scheduling program to model forest management options and simulate future forest conditions resulting from alternative forest management scenarios, and used a process-based fire-simulation model to simulate future forest conditions resulting from natural wildfire disturbance. Spatial pattern signatures were derived for both habitat occupancy and forest conditions, and these were placed in the context of the simulated range of natural variation. Strategic policy analyses were set in the context of current Ontario forest management policies. This included use of sequential time-restricted harvest blocks (created for Woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus) conservation) and delayed harvest areas (created for American marten (Martes americana atrata) conservation). This approach increased the realism of the analysis, but reduced the generality of interpretations. We found that forest management options that create linear strips of old forest deviate the most from simulated natural patterns, and had the greatest negative effects on habitat occupancy, whereas policy options that specify deferment and timing of harvest for large blocks helped ensure the stable presence of an intact mature forest matrix over time. The management scenario that focused on maintaining compositional targets best supported biodiversity objectives by providing the composition patterns required by the 13 focal species, but this scenario may be improved by adding some broad-scale spatial objectives to better maintain large blocks of interior forest habitat through time.