Dynamical horizon entropy and equilibrium thermodynamics of generalized gravity theories

We study the relation between the thermodynamics and field equations of generalized gravity theories on the dynamical trapping horizon with sphere symmetry. We assume the entropy of a dynamical horizon as the Noether charge associated with the Kodama vector and point out that it satisfies the second law when a Gibbs equation holds. We generalize two kinds of Gibbs equations to Gauss-Bonnet gravity on any trapping horizon. Based on the quasilocal gravitational energy found recently for f(R) gravity and scalar-tensor gravity in some special cases, we also build up the Gibbs equations, where the nonequilibrium entropy production, which is usually invoked to balance the energy conservation, is just absorbed into the modified Wald entropy in the Friedmann-Robertson-Walker spacetime with slowly varying horizon. Moreover, the equilibrium thermodynamic identity remains valid for f(R) gravity in a static spacetime. Our work provides an alternative treatment to reinterpret the nonequilibrium correction and supports the idea that the horizon thermodynamics is universal for generalized gravity theories.

Brazilian international and inter-state trade flows: an exploratory analysis using the gravity model

Recent efforts toward a world with freer trade, like WTO/GATT or regional Preferential Trade Agreements(PTAs), were put in doubt after McCallum's(1995) finding of a large border effect between US and Canadian provinces. Since then, there has been a great amount of research on this topic employing the gravity equation. This dissertation has two goals. The first goal is to review comprehensively the recent literature about the gravity equation, including its usages, econometric specifications, and the efforts to provide it with microeconomic foundations. The second goal is the estimation of the Brazilian border effect (or 'home-bias trade puzzle') using inter-state and international trade flow data. It is used a pooled cross-section Tobit model. The lowest border effect estimated was 15, which implies that Brazilian states trade among themselves 15 times more than they trade with foreign countries. Further research using industry disaggregated data is needed to qualify the estimated border effect with respect to which part of that effect can be attributed to actual trade costs and which part is the outcome of the endogenous location problem of the firm.

Gravity with multiple tariff schemes

This study contributes to the literature on gravity analysis by explicitly incorporating both most favored nation (MFN) rates and regional trade agreement (RTA) rates. Our gravity equation considers the fact that all exporters do not necessarily utilize RTA schemes, even when exporting to their RTA partners. We apply the tariff line–level data on worldwide trade to this gravity equation. As a result, we find a significantly negative coefficient for the (log) ratio of RTA rates to MFN rates. From the quantitative point of view, we show that in the first year of the Japan–Australia Economic Partnership (i.e., 2015), exports from Australia to Japan are expected to increase by 6% compared with the exports in 2014. Furthermore, it is shown that, based on the subsequent reduction in RTA rates, the magnitude of the trade-creation effect through tariff reductions gradually rises over time.

Factors that have shaped the eEvolution of bilateral trade between Canada and Colombia in the long run (1953-2003)

Currently bilateral trade between Canada and Colombia is low. In 2003, this trade amounted to US $489 million, with Co­lombian imports from Canada totaling US $ 213 million (DOTS, 2004). Canada supplied approximately 4.0% of Colombia’s total trade (total imports and total ex­ports), in contrast Colombia supplied only around 0.1% of the Canadian total trade. In 2005, Colombia was the third largest Canadian partner in South America after Brazil and Venezuela. The objective of this paper is to analyze the trade performance between Canada and Colombia using a modified gravity equation to identify the most relevant historical factors that have shaped the evo­lution of this bilateral trade in the long run (during the period from 1953 to 2003). The analysis includes traditional economic va­riables (such as population and income of the importing and exporting countries). In order to understand the qualitative nature of the evolution of this bilateral trade the second objective is to review the evolving nature of trade including commodity com­position and trade characteristics.  

Exportaciónes de China en Estados Unidos implicaciones comerciales para América Latina

Este trabajo estima el efecto en el nivel de las exportaciones realizadas por América Latina haciaEstados Unidos cuando se asumen los siguientes tres escenarios. Reducción del nivel de precios delos productos de origen chino, Apreciación del veinte por ciento del Renminbi.

The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on International Trade: An Empirical Study of China

This paper investigates the impact of inward FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) on international trade of China empirically on the country level by using panel data from 1984 to 2007. Two separate transformed models which are based on the gravity equation and refer to the econometric models of some previous studies, are used in this paper to estimate the effect of FDI inflows on exports and imports respectively. The estimation results confirmed the complementary relationship between FDI inflows and trade of China both on exports and imports, which has also been supported by previous empirical studies.

The home-market effect and bilateral trade patterns: a reexamination of the evidence

This paper finds that the evidence for the home market effect (HME) found by Hanson and Xiang (AER, 2004) is sensitive to the way the dependent and the independent variables are constructed. Second, we also find that the HME evidence goes away when we estimate their difference-in-difference gravity model on a truncated sample of positive trade flows. With Eaton–Tamura–Tobit, Heckman, and Helpman–Melitz–Rubinstein estimation of the gravity equation using Hanson and Xiang's data, we are unable to find any evidence for the HME. Finally, the HME evidence is also absent for a sample of Canadian provinces' exports to U.S. states. All of our results, taken together, do not reject the existence of the HME in general but rather suggest that the HME results found by Hanson and Xiang may not be robust.

Trade and infrastructure: evidences from the Andean Community

This paper presents evidence on the key role of infrastructure in the Andean Community trade patterns. Three distinct but related gravity models of bilateral trade are used. The first model aims at identifying the importance of the Preferential Trade Agreement and adjacency on intra-regional trade, while also checking the traditional roles of economic size and distance. The second and third models also assess the evolution of the Trade Agreement and the importance of sharing a common border, but their main goal is to analyze the relevance of including infrastructure in the augmented gravity equation, testing the theoretical assumption that infrastructure endowments, by reducing trade and transport costs, reduce “distance” between bilateral partners. Indeed, if one accepts distance as a proxy for transportation costs, infrastructure development and improvement drastically modify it. Trade liberalization eliminates most of the distortions that a protectionist tariff system imposes on international business; hence transportation costs represent nowadays a considerably larger barrier to trade than in past decades. As new trade pacts are being negotiated in the Americas, borders and old agreements will lose significance; trade among countries will be nearly without restrictions, and bilateral flows will be defined in terms of costs and competitiveness. Competitiveness, however, will only be achieved by an improvement in infrastructure services at all points in the production-distribution chain.

On the effects of non-tariff measures on Brazilian exports

This article proposes an alternative methodology for estimating the effects of non-tariff measures on trade flows, based on the recent literature on gravity models. A two-stage Heckman selection model is applied to the case of Brazilian exports, where the second stage gravity equation is theoretically grounded on the seminal Melitz model of heterogeneous firms. This extended gravity equation highlights the role played by zero trade flows as well as firm heterogeneity in explaining bilateral trade among countries, two factors usually omitted in traditional gravity specifications found in previous literature. Last, it also proposes a economic rationale for the effects of NTM on trade flows, helping to shed some light on its main operating channels under a rather simple Cournot’s duopolistic competition framework.

On the effects of non tariff measures on Brazilian exports

This article proposes an alternative methodology for estimating the effects of non-tariff measures on trade flows, based on the recent literature on gravity models. A two-stage Heckman selection model is applied to the case of Brazilian exports, where the second stage gravity equation is theoretically grounded on the seminal Melitz model of heterogeneous firms. This extended gravity equation highlights the role played by zero trade flows as well as firm heterogeneity in explaining bilateral trade among countries, two factors usually omitted in traditional gravity specifications found in previous literature. Last, it also proposes a economic rationale for the effects of NTM on trade flows, helping to shed some light on its main operating channels under a rather simple Cournot’s duopolistic competition framework

The not so generalized effects of nonreciprocal trade agreements

This dissertation uses an empirical gravity equation approach to study the relationship between nonreciprocal trade agreements (NRTAs) and members’ trade flows. Estimations relate bilateral imports to trade policy variables using a very comprehensive dataset with over fifty years of data. Results show that meager average trade effects exist only if members are excluded from the world trading system or if they are very poor. As trade flows between NRTA members are already rising before their creation, results also suggest a strong endogeneity concerning their formation. Moreover, estimations show that uncertainty and discretion tend to critically hinder NRTA’s performance. On the other hand, reciprocal trade agreements show the opposite pattern regardless of members’ income status.Encouraging developing countries’ openness to trade through reciprocal liberalization emerges consequently as a possible policy implication.

Trade and infrastructure in the Andean Community

Includes bibliography

Essays in Applied and Labor Economics

This thesis consists of three self-contained papers. In the first paper I analyze the labor supply behavior of Bologna Pizza Delivery Vendors. Recent influential papers analyze labor supply behavior of taxi drivers (Camerer et al., 1997; and Crawford and Meng, 2011) and suggest that reference-dependence preferences have an important influence on drivers’ labor-supply decisions. Unlike previous papers, I am able to identify an exogenous and transitory change in labor demand. Using high frequency data on orders and rainfall as an exogenous demand shifter, I invariably find that reference-dependent preferences play no role in their labor’ supply decisions and the behavior of pizza vendors is perfectly consistent with the predictions of the standard model of labor’ supply. In the second paper, I investigate how the voting behavior of Members of Parliament is influenced by the Members seating nearby. By exploiting the random seating arrangements in the Icelandic Parliament, I show that being seated next to Members of a different party increases the probability of not being aligned with one’s own party. Using the exact spatial orientation of the peers, I provide evidence that supports the hypothesis that interaction is the main channel that explain these results. In the third paper, I provide an estimate of the trade flows that there would have been between the UK and Europe if the UK had joined the Euro. As an alternative approach to the standard log-linear gravity equation I employ the synthetic control method. I show that the aggregate trade flows between Britain and Europe would have been 13% higher if the UK had adopted the Euro.

Comparing the Networks of Ethnic Japanese and Ethnic Chinese in International Trade

In this paper I re-examined the trade enhancing effects of ethnic Chinese networks, found by Rauch and Trindade (2002), on a newer and extended data set. The effects are estimated by the gravity equation with the product of the population ratio (or absolute number) of the ethnic Chinese in both the importing and exporting countries, and are reaffirmed positive and statistically significant. I also compared the effects of two different ethnic Japanese networks, i.e., the networks of long-term Japanese stayers in foreign countries, and the networks of permanent Japanese residents in foreign countries. It is found that the former has stronger trade enhancing effects than the latter. This shows that the effects of ethnic networks on international trade can be generalized beyond the ethnic Chinese, and the ’cohesiveness’ of the ethnic network matters to the trade enhancing effects of the network.

Market Access and Intermediate Goods Trade

The role of importer access to the finished goods market in intermediate goods trade is examined by estimating the gravity-like equation derived from the NEG model. Importer access to demand for finished goods is calculated by using the estimates in the gravity equation for finished goods trade, and then intermediate goods trade is regressed on the importer access. Results indicate that imports of intermediate goods are sensitive not only to the magnitude of importer demand for finished goods but also to the demand of neighboring countries. Using results of the regression, the impact of US finished goods market expansion on intermediate goods trade in each country is simulated.