Dinâmica populacional do pargo, Lutjanus purpureus Poey, 1875 (Pisces: Lutjanidae) na plataforma norte do Brasil

O crescimento, a mortalidade, biometria e a reprodução do pargo Lutjanus purpureus foram estudadas a partir de amostras obtidas nos desembarques da frota comercial capturadas com pargueira na costa norte do Brasil no âmbito do programa REVIZEE e do Projeto biologia e pesca do pargo no norte do Brasil do CEPNOR/IBAMA. Dados de comprimentos total e zoológico de aproximadamente 500 indivíduos foram coletados aleatoriamente e mensalmente nos desembarques dos municípios de Belém, Vigia e Bragança, no período de janeiro de 1999 a dezembro de 2000. E para realizar estudos de reprodução e biometria foram obtidas subamostras mensais de 150 indivíduos em abril de 1998 a janeiro de 2000. No laboratório do CEPNOR/IBAMA foram realizadas as biometrias, sexagem e identificados os estágios de maturação gonadal. As amostras totalizaram 16.733 indivíduos com percentuais superiores a 50% de indivíduos jovens. A amplitude de classe total variou de 13 a 112 cm de comprimento e as médias de comprimentos foram de 45,72 cm e 51,91 cm, respectivamente para o ano de 1999 e 2000. As relações morfométricas e as relações peso/comprimento apresentaram alometria positiva. E a relação peso/comprimento para macho e fêmea diferem significativamente entre si, pelo teste de Student, bilateral, com alfa = 0,05. A reprodução foi estudada determinando a proporção sexual através do teste quiquadrado, o tamanho de primeira maturação e o período de desova, que foi analisado pela variação temporal das freqüências dos estágios gonadais e relação gonadossomática. Para todo o período estudado foi verificada a predominância de fêmeas e nas análises mensais apenas nos meses de abril de 1998, maio e junho de 1999 não apresentaram diferenças significativas entre os sexos. Na proporção sexual por classe de comprimento a predominância de fêmeas foi altamente significativa de 28 a 45 cm. A classe de comprimento total do tamanho de primeira maturação foi estimado 43 a 46 cm para fêmeas pelo método da extrapolação gráfica e de 43,67 cm pelo ajuste da ogiva de Galton. E o período reprodutivo foi observado em dois picos, sendo um intenso no segundo trimestre, com maior amplitude no mês de maio/1998 e um mais reduzido no quarto trimestre. Os parâmetros de crescimento foram estimados pelo sistema ELEFAN I, método de Bhattacharya, Gulland & Holt e Appeldoorn no programa Fisat. O método de Appeldoorn apresentou o melhor ajuste para a espécie com o valor de L= 115 cm K= 0,091ano-1 , que determinou a equação do crescimento de von Bertalanffy Lt = 115 (1-e 0,091tto). A mortalidade natural foi estimada em 0,25 ano-1 e 0,31 ano-1 pelas equações de Pauly e Rikhter & Efanov respectivamente. A mortalidade total estimada pelos métodos do comprimento convertido em curva de captura linearizada e Berverton & Holt atingiu valores de 0,59; 0,664 respectivamente. A mortalidade por pesca e a taxa de explotação também foram calculados. Os resultados foram F = 0,34 ano 1 e E = 0,57. A longevidade estimada pela fórmula de Taylor foi de 33 anos. O pargo apresenta crescimento lento e vida longa com desova contínua e periódica. A pesca na costa norte do Brasil incide em percentuais elevados de jovens o que pode contribuir para um estado de sobrepesca de crescimento, comprometendo assim a sustentabilidade da espécie e da atividade pesqueira na região norte. É imprescindível adotar medidas de ordenamento para a pesca do pargo, principalmente no que diz respeito ao tamanho mínimo de captura.

Survival Extrapolation In The Presence Of Cause Specific Hazards.

Health economic evaluations require estimates of expected survival from patients receiving different interventions, often over a lifetime. However, data on the patients of interest are typically only available for a much shorter follow-up time, from randomised trials or cohorts. Previous work showed how to use general population mortality to improve extrapolations of the short-term data, assuming a constant additive or multiplicative effect on the hazards for all-cause mortality for study patients relative to the general population. A more plausible assumption may be a constant effect on the hazard for the specific cause of death targeted by the treatments. To address this problem, we use independent parametric survival models for cause-specific mortality among the general population. Because causes of death are unobserved for the patients of interest, a polyhazard model is used to express their all-cause mortality as a sum of latent cause-specific hazards. Assuming proportional cause-specific hazards between the general and study populations then allows us to extrapolate mortality of the patients of interest to the long term. A Bayesian framework is used to jointly model all sources of data. By simulation, we show that ignoring cause-specific hazards leads to biased estimates of mean survival when the proportion of deaths due to the cause of interest changes through time. The methods are applied to an evaluation of implantable cardioverter defibrillators for the prevention of sudden cardiac death among patients with cardiac arrhythmia. After accounting for cause-specific mortality, substantial differences are seen in estimates of life years gained from implantable cardioverter defibrillators.

A new graphic format to facilitate the understanding of technological innovation models: the seesaw of competitiveness

Many models exist in the literature to explain the success of technological innovation. However, no studies have been made regarding graphic formats representing the technological innovation models and their impact, or on the understanding of these models by non-specialists in technology management. Thus, the main objective of this paper is to propose a new graphic configuration to represent the technological innovation management. Based on the literature, the innovation model is presented in the traditional format. Next, the same model is designed in the graphic format - named `the see-saw of competitiveness` - showing the interfaces among the identified factors. The two graphic formats were compared by a group of graduate students in terms of the ease in understanding the conceptual model of innovation. The statistical analysis shows that the seesaw of competitiveness is preferred.

Extrapolation from ten sections can make CT-based quantification of lung aeration more practicable

Clinical applications of quantitative computed tomography (qCT) in patients with pulmonary opacifications are hindered by the radiation exposure and by the arduous manual image processing. We hypothesized that extrapolation from only ten thoracic CT sections will provide reliable information on the aeration of the entire lung. CTs of 72 patients with normal and 85 patients with opacified lungs were studied retrospectively. Volumes and masses of the lung and its differently aerated compartments were obtained from all CT sections. Then only the most cranial and caudal sections and a further eight evenly spaced sections between them were selected. The results from these ten sections were extrapolated to the entire lung. The agreement between both methods was assessed with Bland-Altman plots. Median (range) total lung volume and mass were 3,738 (1,311-6,768) ml and 957 (545-3,019) g, the corresponding bias (limits of agreement) were 26 (-42 to 95) ml and 8 (-21 to 38) g, respectively. The median volumes (range) of differently aerated compartments (percentage of total lung volume) were 1 (0-54)% for the nonaerated, 5 (1-44)% for the poorly aerated, 85 (28-98)% for the normally aerated, and 4 (0-48)% for the hyperaerated subvolume. The agreement between the extrapolated results and those from all CT sections was excellent. All bias values were below 1% of the total lung volume or mass, the limits of agreement never exceeded +/- 2%. The extrapolation method can reduce radiation exposure and shorten the time required for qCT analysis of lung aeration.

Teaching drawing: an interdisciplinary pedagogical experience in a graphic design course

Various authors have written about the importance of drawing in design methodology. Their general conclusion points drawing as an essential tool for design research, as it allows investigation of several alternative solutions in design process (Cross, 2007). The recent profound changes in design nature (Norman, 2011), justify a discussion on the purpose of drawing in design courses. As a consequence of this new reality, the educational institutions face the challenge of the definition of their curricular structures and teaching methodologies. Among others, concepts such as collaboration and multidisciplinary design approaches have been discussed as strategies for design education (Heller and Talarico, 2011, pp. 82-85). In this context, and using our teaching activity experience in Drawing and Design areas, the authors discuss:  how can drawing methods be included in the current design teaching?  can drawing be considered as an interdisciplinary approach?  what contributions can these methodologies provide to the educational/learning process? Based on these concerns, we developed an interdisciplinary project in the Graphic Design Course with two curricular units: Drawing 1 and Aesthetic and Design Theory 1. In this article the authors present the aims and process developed, and discuss the outcomes of this pedagogical experience.

Nostalgia Studio. A game engine for creating collaborative multiplayer online graphic adventure games

No decorrer do projeto SELEAG foi desenvolvido um jogo de aventura gráfica educativo com o propósito de ensinar história, cultura e relações sociais aos alunos. Este jogo foi avaliado em contexto de sala de aula em diversos países, obtendo resultados positivos. No entanto, por motivos técnicos, alguns dos objetivos propostos pelo projeto não puderam ser devidamente explorados, como permitir que o jogo fosse extensível por outros educadores ou suportar a colaboração online entre os jogadores. Nomeadamente, as ferramentas utilizadas para desenvolver o jogo eram demasiado complicadas para serem utilizadas fora da equipa de desenvolvimento, o que limitou a extensibilidade do projeto, e tornou impossível que educadores sem conhecimentos de programação fossem também capazes de traduzir os seus conteúdos educativos para este formato. Além disso, apesar do jogo possuir algumas funcionalidades de colaboração online, toda a interação era efetuada externamente ao jogo, através de um fórum de mensagens, o que demonstrou ser pouco motivante para os jogadores, pois muitos deles nem se aperceberam que havia uma componente de colaboração no jogo. O objetivo desta tese incide sobre estes dois problemas, e consistiu em desenvolver um editor e motor de jogo com uma interface simples de utilizar, que não necessita de conhecimentos prévios de programação, e que permite criar jogos de aventura gráfica com uma componente de colaboração online verdadeiramente embebida na jogabilidade. A aplicação desenvolvida foi testada por um conjunto de utilizadores de diversas áreas, tendo-se obtido resultados que demonstram a acessibilidade e simplicidade da mesma, independentemente do nível de experiência prévio de programação do utilizador. A componente de colaboração online foi também muito bem recebida pelos utilizadores, os quais demonstraram bastante interesse em ver jogos de aventura gráfica com componente de colaboração online serem desenvolvidos no futuro.

Estudi exploratori per a la reconstrucció de temperatures de l'aigua i de l'aire en la conca central del llac Baikal (Sibèria) en els últims 40000 anys

Aquest estudi consisteix en un anàlisi exploratori que té per objectiu principal la realització d’una reconstrucció de la temperatura de l’aigua i l’aire del llac Baikal durant els últims 40.000 anys. El treball s’ha dut a terme mitjançant l’ús de les proxys de reconstrucció de la temperatura y la utilització dels mètodes TEX86, MAAT, i la d’aportació de matèria orgànica d’origen terrestre, el BIT, aplicant-les a la mostra VER93-2 st GC-24, extreta pel Baikal Drilling Project a la conca central, amb l’objectiu de fer una aportació de dades paleoclimàtiques per tal d’aconseguir una millora en les interpretacions de futurs esdeveniments climàtics, i d’identificar esdeveniments climàtics sobtats, tals com els Heinrich events i els Youngers Dryas. Abans de la realització de l’anàlisi de les mostres s’ha dut a terme una extrapolació de l’edat en el testimoni, degut a que l’edat del core BDP VER93-2.st.GC-24 havia estat extrapolada fins a 277,5 cm de profunditat i en el present estudi s’ha ampliat l’anàlisi fins als 460 cm. de profunditat. Un cop obtinguts els resultats s’ha realitzat un càlcul de precisió i reproductibilitat per tal de conèixer una estimació quantitativa de la variabilitat de les dades obtingudes en les diferents proxys, en el qual ha estat demostrat una baixa variabilitat de les dades, exceptuant la variabilitat del TEX86 i la precisió del MAAT. Per a la localització dels diferents esdeveniments climàtics donats durant l’Holocè i el Plistocè s’han realitzat anàlisis gràfics dels propis resultats, juntament i en comparació dels resultats realitzats per Escala et al. (r.n.p [resultats no publicats]) en la conca sud, i de l’estudi publicat per Prokopenko et al., en el que s’analitza la presència de diatomees i matèria orgànica l’Atlàntic Nord. Els resultats integrats d’Escala et al.,(r.n.p) i els d’aquest estudi coincideixen en la datació dels diferents esdeveniments, amb alguna variació hipotèticament produïda per l’extrapolació d’edat realitzada en el present estudi i la gran aportació de matèria orgànica en el lloc d’extracció del testimoni per part del riu Selenga. Aquests resultats mostren una possible relació entre els esdeveniments climàtics i la variació de la temperatura de l’aigua.

Efavirenz in an obese HIV-infected patient - a report and an in vitro-in vivo extrapolation model indicate risk of underdosing.

Here, we report suboptimal efavirenz exposure in an obese patient treated with the standard 600 mg dose. Tripling the dose allowed attainment of therapeutic efavirenz concentrations. We developed an in vitro-in vivo extrapolation model to quantify dose requirements in obese individuals. Obesity represents a risk factor for antiretroviral therapy underdosing.

Volatility smile extrapolation with an artificial neural network

I use a multi-layer feedforward perceptron, with backpropagation learning implemented via stochastic gradient descent, to extrapolate the volatility smile of Euribor derivatives over low-strikes by training the network on parametric prices.

Modelling short-term ultraviolet exposure as an alternative to individual dosimetry

Background: Excessive exposure to solar Ultra-Violet (UV) light is the main cause of most skin cancers in humans. Factors such as the increase of solar irradiation at ground level (anthropic pollution), the rise in standard of living (vacation in sunny areas), and (mostly) the development of outdoor activities have contributed to increase exposure. Thus, unsurprisingly, incidence of skin cancers has increased over the last decades more than that of any other cancer. Melanoma is the most lethal cutaneous cancer, while cutaneous carcinomas are the most common cancer type worldwide. UV exposure depends on environmental as well as individual factors related to activity. The influence of individual factors on exposure among building workers was investigated in a previous study. Posture and orientation were found to account for at least 38% of the total variance of relative individual exposure. A high variance of short-term exposure was observed between different body locations, indicating the occurrence of intense, subacute exposures. It was also found that effective short-term exposure ranged between 0 and 200% of ambient irradiation, suggesting that ambient irradiation is a poor predictor of effective exposure. Various dosimetric techniques enable to assess individual effective exposure, but dosimetric measurements remain tedious and tend to be situation-specific. As a matter of facts, individual factors (exposure time, body posture and orientation in the sun) often limit the extrapolation of exposure results to similar activities conducted in other conditions. Objective: The research presented in this paper aims at developing and validating a predictive tool of effective individual exposure to solar UV. Methods: Existing computer graphic techniques (3D rendering) were adapted to reflect solar exposure conditions and calculate short-term anatomical doses. A numerical model, represented as a 3D triangular mesh, is used to represent the exposed body. The amount of solar energy received by each "triangle is calculated, taking into account irradiation intensity, incidence angle and possible shadowing from other body parts. The model take into account the three components of the solar irradiation (direct, diffuse and albedo) as well as the orientation and posture of the body. Field measurements were carried out using a forensic mannequin at the Payerne MeteoSwiss station. Short-term dosimetric measurements were performed in 7 anatomical locations for 5 body postures. Field results were compared to the model prediction obtained from the numerical model. Results: The best match between prediction and measurements was obtained for upper body parts such as shoulders (Ratio Modelled/Measured; Mean = 1.21, SD = 0.34) and neck (Mean = 0.81, SD = 0.32). Small curved body parts such as forehead (Mean = 6.48, SD = 9.61) exhibited a lower matching. The prediction is less accurate for complex postures such as kneeling (Mean = 4.13, SD = 8.38) compared to standing up (Mean = 0.85, SD = 0.48). The values obtained from the dosimeters and the ones computed from the model are globally consistent. Conclusion: Although further development and validation are required, these results suggest that effective exposure could be predicted for a given activity (work or leisure) in various ambient irradiation conditions. Using a generic modelling approach is of high interest in terms of implementation costs as well as predictive and retrospective capabilities.

Bilinear models for spatio-temporal point distribution analysis: application to extrapolation of left ventricular, biventricular and whole heart cardiac dynamics

In this work we describe the usage of bilinear statistical models as a means of factoring the shape variability into two components attributed to inter-subject variation and to the intrinsic dynamics of the human heart. We show that it is feasible to reconstruct the shape of the heart at discrete points in the cardiac cycle. Provided we are given a small number of shape instances representing the same heart atdifferent points in the same cycle, we can use the bilinearmodel to establish this. Using a temporal and a spatial alignment step in the preprocessing of the shapes, around half of the reconstruction errors were on the order of the axial image resolution of 2 mm, and over 90% was within 3.5 mm. From this, weconclude that the dynamics were indeed separated from theinter-subject variability in our dataset.

Pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic analysis of efavirenz dose reduction using an in vitro-in vivo extrapolation model.

The pharmacokinetics (PK) of efavirenz (EFV) is characterized by marked interpatient variability that correlates with its pharmacodynamics (PD). In vitro-in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE) is a "bottom-up" approach that combines drug data with system information to predict PK and PD. The aim of this study was to simulate EFV PK and PD after dose reductions. At the standard dose, the simulated probability was 80% for viral suppression and 28% for central nervous system (CNS) toxicity. After a dose reduction to 400 mg, the probabilities of viral suppression were reduced to 69, 75, and 82%, and those of CNS toxicity were 21, 24, and 29% for the 516 GG, 516 GT, and 516 TT genotypes, respectively. With reduction of the dose to 200 mg, the probabilities of viral suppression decreased to 54, 62, and 72% and those of CNS toxicity decreased to 13, 18, and 20% for the 516 GG, 516 GT, and 516 TT genotypes, respectively. These findings indicate how dose reductions might be applied in patients with favorable genetic characteristics.

Extrapolation theory for the real interpolation method

We develop an abstract extrapolation theory for the real interpolation method that covers and improves the most recent versions of the celebrated theorems of Yano and Zygmund. As a consequence of our method, we give new endpoint estimates of the embedding Sobolev theorem for an arbitrary domain Omega

Photographic rectification of the graphic documentation of historical and archaeological heritage: The case of the southern facade of the Praetorium tower in Tarragona (Tarraco, Hispania Citerior)

This article details the use of photographic rectification as support for the graphic documentation of historical and archaeological heritage and specifically the southern facade of the Torre del Pretori (Praetorium Tower) in Tarragona. The Praetorium Tower is part of a larger monumental complex and one of the towers that connected different parts of the Tarraco Provincial Forum, the politic-administrative centre of the ancient capital of Hispania Citerioris. It is therefore a valuable example of the evolution of Roman urban architecture. The aim of this project is to provide accurate graphic documentation of the structure to facilitate the restoration and conservation of the tower, as well as to provide a more profound architectural and archaeological understanding of the Roman forum. The use of photographic rectification enabled us to overcome the spatial and time difficulties involved in collecting data caused by the size and location of the building. Specific software made it easier to obtain accurate two-dimensional images. For this reason, in our case, photographic rectification helped us to make a direct analysis of the monument and facilitated interpretation of the architectural stratigraphy. We currently separate the line of research into two concepts: the construction processes and the architecture of the building. The documentation collected permitted various analyses: the characterisation of the building modules, identification of the tools used to work the building materials, etc. In conclusion, the use of orthoimages is a powerful tool that permits the systematic study of a Roman building that has evolved over the centuries and is now in a modern urban context.

The Comprehensive Standardization of the Graphic Industry Production Chain in the Printing House

The purpose of this thesis was to investigate Job Definition Format (JDF) and how it could be used in printing house's systems. JDF is a very new information exchange standard, and it gives a lot of opportunities to the printing industry. JDF is the first standard, that has an ability to carry a print job from genesis through completion. Besides, JDF has an ability to bridge the communication gap between production and management information services. In the study of JDF we focused on examining how JDF will effect on printing industry .The thesis also examines printing houses's systems ability to work with JDF standard. The result of the study is a comprehensive picture, what is JDF. We also researched the system developers' visions, how JDF will effect on their products in the future.