Análise de barreiras e o modelo de ressonância funcional de acidentes de Erik Hollnagel

Partindo de apresentação da proposta de análise de acidentes baseada no modelo sistêmico e não linear de acidentes, dito de ressonância funcional, desenvolvido por Erik Hollnagel, este texto discute críticas às concepções deterministas de acidente e aos modelos lineares de representação desses eventos. Aspectos do modelo de ressonância funcional são usados como eixo definidor de proposta de agenda de discussões a ser desenvolvida pelos interessados no tema da análise de acidentes, destacando-se: a) a defesa do abandono da idéia de causas de acidentes e sua substituição pela de explicação desses eventos; b) apresentação dos conceitos de variabilidade de desempenhos e adaptações locais e a proposta de sua utilização como bases para a identificação de perfis ou aspectos típicos de acidentes. Por fim, discute-se a necessidade de incorporação dos conceitos apresentados no debate sobre novos caminhos para as práticas de análises e de prevenção de acidentes em nosso país.

Addendum I: Paleoclimate and the Solar-Insolation/Tidal-Resonance Climate Model

Recent papers provide detailed analyses of more than 40 high-resolution time series culled from the extensive paleoclimate literature that appear to define cyclical elements of the Solar-Insolation/Tidal-Resonance Climate Model. This model was earlier referred to as the Milankovitch/Pettersson Climatic Theory. This paper provides comparable analyses of an additional 20 or so, evidently supportive, climate and volcanic time series. The tree-ring, historical, pollen, cultural, time-frequency, and hydrologic records range in length from 400 to 90,000 years and spatially from Alaska to Tierra del Fuego.

FUNCTIONAL PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS MODEL FOR HIGH-DIMENSIONAL BRAIN IMAGING

We establish a fundamental equivalence between singular value decomposition (SVD) and functional principal components analysis (FPCA) models. The constructive relationship allows to deploy the numerical efficiency of SVD to fully estimate the components of FPCA, even for extremely high-dimensional functional objects, such as brain images. As an example, a functional mixed effect model is fitted to high-resolution morphometric (RAVENS) images. The main directions of morphometric variation in brain volumes are identified and discussed.

Quantification of the effects of architectural traits on dry mass production and light interception of tomato canopy under different temperature regimes using a dynamic functional-structural plant model

There is increasing interest in evaluating the environmental effects on crop architectural traits and yield improvement. However, crop models describing the dynamic changes in canopy structure with environmental conditions and the complex interactions between canopy structure, light interception, and dry mass production are only gradually emerging. Using tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) as a model crop, a dynamic functional-structural plant model (FSPM) was constructed, parameterized, and evaluated to analyse the effects of temperature on architectural traits, which strongly influence canopy light interception and shoot dry mass. The FSPM predicted the organ growth, organ size, and shoot dry mass over time with high accuracy (>85%). Analyses of this FSPM showed that, in comparison with the reference canopy, shoot dry mass may be affected by leaf angle by as much as 20%, leaf curvature by up to 7%, the leaf length: width ratio by up to 5%, internode length by up to 9%, and curvature ratios and leaf arrangement by up to 6%. Tomato canopies at low temperature had higher canopy density and were more clumped due to higher leaf area and shorter internodes. Interestingly, dry mass production and light interception of the clumped canopy were more sensitive to changes in architectural traits. The complex interactions between architectural traits, canopy light interception, dry mass production, and environmental conditions can be studied by the dynamic FSPM, which may serve as a tool for designing a canopy structure which is 'ideal' in a given environment.

A statistical model for combustion resonance from a DI diesel engine with applications

Introduced in this paper is a Bayesian model for isolating the resonant frequency from combustion chamber resonance. The model shown in this paper focused on characterising the initial rise in the resonant frequency to investigate the rise of in-cylinder bulk temperature associated with combustion. By resolving the model parameters, it is possible to determine: the start of pre-mixed combustion, the start of diffusion combustion, the initial resonant frequency, the resonant frequency as a function of crank angle, the in-cylinder bulk temperature as a function of crank angle and the trapped mass as a function of crank angle. The Bayesian method allows for individual cycles to be examined without cycle-averaging|allowing inter-cycle variability studies. Results are shown for a turbo-charged, common-rail compression ignition engine run at 2000 rpm and full load.

Trait-based representation of diatom functional diversity in a plankton functional type model of the eutrophied southern North Sea

We introduce a trait-based description of diatom functional diversity to an existing plankton functional type (PFT) model, implemented for the eutrophied coastal ecosystem in the Southern Bight of the North Sea. The trait-based description represents a continuum of diatom species, each characterized by a distinct cell volume, and includes size dependence of four diatom traits: the maximum growth rate, the half-saturation constants for nutrient uptake, the photosynthetic efficiency, and the relative affinity of copepods for diatoms. Through competition under seasonally varying forcing, the fitness of each diatom varies throughout time, and the outcome of competition results in a changing community structure. The predicted seasonal change in mean cell volume of the community is supported by field observations: smaller diatoms, which are more competitive in terms of resource acquisition, prevail during the first spring bloom, whereas the summer bloom is dominated by larger species which better resist grazing. The size-based model is used to determine the ecological niche of diatoms in the area and identifies a range of viable sizes that matches observations. The general trade-off between small, competitive diatoms and large, grazing-resistant species is a convenient framework to study patterns in diatom functional diversity. PFT models and trait-based approaches constitute promising complementary tools to study community structure in marine ecosystems.

Bayesian model selection of structural explanatory models: Application to road accident data

Using the Bayesian approach as the model selection criteria, the main purpose in this study is to establish a practical road accident model that can provide a better interpretation and prediction performance. For this purpose we are using a structural explanatory model with autoregressive error term. The model estimation is carried out through Bayesian inference and the best model is selected based on the goodness of fit measures. To cross validate the model estimation further prediction analysis were done. As the road safety measures the number of fatal accidents in Spain, during 2000-2011 were employed. The results of the variable selection process show that the factors explaining fatal road accidents are mainly exposure, economic factors, and surveillance and legislative measures. The model selection shows that the impact of economic factors on fatal accidents during the period under study has been higher compared to surveillance and legislative measures.

Functional-structural plant modelling using a combination of architectural analysis, L-systems and a canonical model of function

This paper presents a new method for producing a functional-structural plant model that simulates response to different growth conditions, yet does not require detailed knowledge of underlying physiology. The example used to present this method is the modelling of the mountain birch tree. This new functional-structural modelling approach is based on linking an L-system representation of the dynamic structure of the plant with a canonical mathematical model of plant function. Growth indicated by the canonical model is allocated to the structural model according to probabilistic growth rules, such as rules for the placement and length of new shoots, which were derived from an analysis of architectural data. The main advantage of the approach is that it is relatively simple compared to the prevalent process-based functional-structural plant models and does not require a detailed understanding of underlying physiological processes, yet it is able to capture important aspects of plant function and adaptability, unlike simple empirical models. This approach, combining canonical modelling, architectural analysis and L-systems, thus fills the important role of providing an intermediate level of abstraction between the two extremes of deeply mechanistic process-based modelling and purely empirical modelling. We also investigated the relative importance of various aspects of this integrated modelling approach by analysing the sensitivity of the standard birch model to a number of variations in its parameters, functions and algorithms. The results show that using light as the sole factor determining the structural location of new growth gives satisfactory results. Including the influence of additional regulating factors made little difference to global characteristics of the emergent architecture. Changing the form of the probability functions and using alternative methods for choosing the sites of new growth also had little effect. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessment of functional forms of crop yield loss models of invasive plant species applied in decision support tools and bioeconomic modelling

AbstractObjectives Decision support tools (DSTs) for invasive species management have had limited success in producing convincing results and meeting users' expectations. The problems could be linked to the functional form of model which represents the dynamic relationship between the invasive species and crop yield loss in the DSTs. The objectives of this study were: a) to compile and review the models tested on field experiments and applied to DSTs; and b) to do an empirical evaluation of some popular models and alternatives. Design and methods This study surveyed the literature and documented strengths and weaknesses of the functional forms of yield loss models. Some widely used models (linear, relative yield and hyperbolic models) and two potentially useful models (the double-scaled and density-scaled models) were evaluated for a wide range of weed densities, maximum potential yield loss and maximum yield loss per weed. Results Popular functional forms include hyperbolic, sigmoid, linear, quadratic and inverse models. Many basic models were modified to account for the effect of important factors (weather, tillage and growth stage of crop at weed emergence) influencing weed–crop interaction and to improve prediction accuracy. This limited their applicability for use in DSTs as they became less generalized in nature and often were applicable to a much narrower range of conditions than would be encountered in the use of DSTs. These factors' effects could be better accounted by using other techniques. Among the model empirically assessed, the linear model is a very simple model which appears to work well at sparse weed densities, but it produces unrealistic behaviour at high densities. The relative-yield model exhibits expected behaviour at high densities and high levels of maximum yield loss per weed but probably underestimates yield loss at low to intermediate densities. The hyperbolic model demonstrated reasonable behaviour at lower weed densities, but produced biologically unreasonable behaviour at low rates of loss per weed and high yield loss at the maximum weed density. The density-scaled model is not sensitive to the yield loss at maximum weed density in terms of the number of weeds that will produce a certain proportion of that maximum yield loss. The double-scaled model appeared to produce more robust estimates of the impact of weeds under a wide range of conditions. Conclusions Previously tested functional forms exhibit problems for use in DSTs for crop yield loss modelling. Of the models evaluated, the double-scaled model exhibits desirable qualitative behaviour under most circumstances.

Fluctuations and correlations of conserved charges in the (2+1) Polyakov quark meson model

We consider the (2 + 1) flavor Polyakov quark meson model and study the fluctuations (correlations) of conserved charges up to sixth (fourth) order. A comparison is made with lattice data wherever available and overall good qualitative agreement is found, more so for the case of the normalized susceptibilities. The model predictions for the ratio of susceptibilities go to that of an ideal gas of hadrons as in hadron resonance gas model at low temperatures while at high temperature the values are close to that of an ideal gas of massless quarks. Our study provides a strong basis for the use of the Polyakov quark meson model as an effective model to understand the topology of the QCD phase diagram. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevD.86.114021 PACS numbers: 12.39.-x, 05.40.-a, 12.38.Aw, 12.38.Mh

Identifying functional stakeholder clusters to maximise communication for the ecosystem approach to fisheries management

Interaction with ecological models can improve stakeholder participation in fisheries management. Problems exist in efficiently communicating outputs to stakeholders and an objective method of structuring stakeholder differences is lacking. This paper aims to inform the design of a multi-user communication interface for fisheries management by identifying functional stakeholder groups. Intuitive categorisation of stakeholders, derived from survey responses, is contrasted with an Evidence-Based method derived from analysis of stakeholder literature. Intuitive categorisation relies on interpretation and professional judgement when categorising stakeholders among conventional stakeholder groups. Evidence-Based categorisation quantitatively characterises each stakeholder with a vector of four management objective interest-strength values (Yield, Employment, Profit and Ecosystem Preservation). Survey respondents agreed little in forming intuitive groups and the groups were poorly defined and heterogeneous in interests. In contrast the Evidence-Based clusters were well defined and largely homogeneous, so more useful for identifying functional relations with model outputs. The categorisations lead to two different clusterings of stakeholders and suggest unhelpful stereotyping of stakeholders may occur with the Intuitive categorisation method. Stakeholder clusters based on literature-evidence show a high degree of common interests among clusters and is encouraging for those seeking to maximise dialogue and consensus forming. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Analytical model of interwoven spiral arrays

Interweaving planar spiral conductors in doubly periodic arrays enable substantially sub-wavelength resonant response along with broadening fractional bandwidth. A self-contained analytical model is proposed to accurately predict the characteristics of the intertwined quadrifilar spiral array near the fundamental resonance. The model, based upon a multiconductor transmission line (MTL) approach, provides physical insight into the unique properties of the distributed interactions between the interleaved counter-wound spiral arms extended beyond a single unit cell and elucidates the mechanisms underlying the array performance at normal and oblique incidence of TE and TM polarised waves. The developed MTL model is instrumental in the design of the artificial surfaces with the specified response.

Intervention orthophonique et neurobiologie du cerveau : apports de la neuroimagerie à la prise en charge de l’aphasie chronique

L’aphasie est un trouble acquis du langage entraînant des problèmes de communication pouvant toucher la compréhension et/ou l’expression. Lorsque l’aphasie fait suite à un accident vasculaire cérébral, une régression des déficits communicatifs s'observe initialement, mais elle peut demeurer sévère pour certains et est considérée chronique après un an. Par ailleurs, l’aphasie peut aussi être observée dans l’aphasie progressive primaire, une maladie dégénérative affectant uniquement le langage dans les premières années. Un nombre grandissant d’études s’intéressent à l’impact de la thérapie dans l’aphasie chronique et ont démontré des améliorations langagières après plusieurs années. L’hémisphère gauche semble avoir un rôle crucial et est associé à de meilleures améliorations langagières, mais la compréhension des mécanismes de plasticité cérébrale est encore embryonnaire. Or, l’efficacité de la thérapie dans l’aphasie progressive primaire est peu étudiée. À l’aide de la résonance magnétique fonctionnelle, le but des présentes études consiste à examiner les mécanismes de plasticité cérébrale induits par la thérapie Semantic Feature Analysis auprès de dix personnes souffrant d’aphasie chronique et d’une personne souffrant d’aphasie progressive primaire. Les résultats suggèrent que le cerveau peut se réorganiser plusieurs années après une lésion cérébrale ainsi que dans une maladie dégénérative. Au niveau individuel, une meilleure amélioration langagière est associée au recrutement de l’hémisphère gauche ainsi qu’une concentration des activations. Les analyses de groupe mettent en évidence le recrutement du lobule pariétal inférieur gauche, alors que l’activation du gyrus précentral gauche prédit l’amélioration suite à la thérapie. D’autre part, les analyses de connectivité fonctionnelle ont permis d’identifier pour la première fois le réseau par défaut dans l’aphasie. Suite à la thérapie, l’intégration de ce réseau bien connu est comparable à celle des contrôles et les analyses de corrélation suggèrent que l’intégration du réseau par défaut a une valeur prédictive d’amélioration. Donc, les résultats de ces études appuient l’idée que l’hémisphère gauche a un rôle prépondérant dans la récupération de l’aphasie et fournissent des données probantes sur la neuroplasticité induite par une thérapie spécifique du langage dans l’aphasie. De plus, l’identification d’aires clés et de réseaux guideront de futures recherches afin d’éventuellement maximiser la récupération de l’aphasie et permettre de mieux prédire le pronostic.

Cross-Linguistic Transfer (CLT) in Bilingual Speakers : Neural Correlates of Language Learning

Le but de cette thèse est d'étudier les corrélats comportementaux et neuronaux du transfert inter-linguistique (TIL) dans l'apprentissage d’une langue seconde (L2). Compte tenu de nos connaissances sur l'influence de la distance linguistique sur le TIL (Paradis, 1987, 2004; Odlin, 1989, 2004, 2005; Gollan, 2005; Ringbom, 2007), nous avons examiné l'effet de facilitation de la similarité phonologique à l’aide de la résonance magnétique fonctionnelle entre des langues linguistiquement proches (espagnol-français) et des langues linguistiquement éloignées (persan-français). L'étude I rapporte les résultats obtenus pour des langues linguistiquement proches (espagnol-français), alors que l'étude II porte sur des langues linguistiquement éloignées (persan-français). Puis, les changements de connectivité fonctionnelle dans le réseau langagier (Price, 2010) et dans le réseau de contrôle supplémentaire impliqué dans le traitement d’une langue seconde (Abutalebi & Green, 2007) lors de l’apprentissage d’une langue linguistiquement éloignée (persan-français) sont rapportés dans l’étude III. Les résultats des analyses d’IRMF suivant le modèle linéaire général chez les bilingues de langues linguistiquement proches (français-espagnol) montrent que le traitement des mots phonologiquement similaires dans les deux langues (cognates et clangs) compte sur un réseau neuronal partagé par la langue maternelle (L1) et la L2, tandis que le traitement des mots phonologiquement éloignés (non-clang-non-cognates) active des structures impliquées dans le traitement de la mémoire de travail et d'attention. Toutefois, chez les personnes bilingues de L1-L2 linguistiquement éloignées (français-persan), même les mots phonologiquement similaires à travers les langues (cognates et clangs) activent des régions connues pour être impliquées dans l'attention et le contrôle cognitif. Par ailleurs, les mots phonologiquement éloignés (non-clang-non-cognates) activent des régions usuellement associées à la mémoire de travail et aux fonctions exécutives. Ainsi, le facteur de distance inter-linguistique entre L1 et L2 module la charge cognitive sur la base du degré de similarité phonologiques entres les items en L1 et L2. Des structures soutenant les processus impliqués dans le traitement exécutif sont recrutées afin de compenser pour des demandes cognitives. Lorsque la compétence linguistique en L2 augmente et que les tâches linguistiques exigent ainsi moins d’effort, la demande pour les ressources cognitives diminue. Tel que déjà rapporté (Majerus, et al, 2008; Prat, et al, 2007; Veroude, et al, 2010; Dodel, et al, 2005; Coynel, et al ., 2009), les résultats des analyses de connectivité fonctionnelle montrent qu’après l’entraînement la valeur d'intégration (connectivité fonctionnelle) diminue puisqu’il y a moins de circulation du flux d'information. Les résultats de cette recherche contribuent à une meilleure compréhension des aspects neurocognitifs et de plasticité cérébrale du TIL ainsi que l'impact de la distance linguistique dans l'apprentissage des langues. Ces résultats ont des implications dans les stratégies d'apprentissage d’une L2, les méthodes d’enseignement d’une L2 ainsi que le développement d'approches thérapeutiques chez des patients bilingues qui souffrent de troubles langagiers.