Stress correlation function evolution in lattice solid elasto-dynamic models of shear and fracture zones and earthquake prediction

It has been argued that power-law time-to-failure fits for cumulative Benioff strain and an evolution in size-frequency statistics in the lead-up to large earthquakes are evidence that the crust behaves as a Critical Point (CP) system. If so, intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible. However, this hypothesis has not been proven. If the crust does behave as a CP system, stress correlation lengths should grow in the lead-up to large events through the action of small to moderate ruptures and drop sharply once a large event occurs. However this evolution in stress correlation lengths cannot be observed directly. Here we show, using the lattice solid model to describe discontinuous elasto-dynamic systems subjected to shear and compression, that it is for possible correlation lengths to exhibit CP-type evolution. In the case of a granular system subjected to shear, this evolution occurs in the lead-up to the largest event and is accompanied by an increasing rate of moderate-sized events and power-law acceleration of Benioff strain release. In the case of an intact sample system subjected to compression, the evolution occurs only after a mature fracture system has developed. The results support the existence of a physical mechanism for intermediate-term earthquake forecasting and suggest this mechanism is fault-system dependent. This offers an explanation of why accelerating Benioff strain release is not observed prior to all large earthquakes. The results prove the existence of an underlying evolution in discontinuous elasto-dynamic, systems which is capable of providing a basis for forecasting catastrophic failure and earthquakes.

The hydrographic conditions at depth below 1000 m water depth in the region of the Romanche Fracture Zones

During the "Atlantic Expedition" in1965 (IQSY) a comprehensive bathymetric survey and a few hydrographic stations were made by R.V. "Meteor" in the equatorial region of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. The survey results are shown in a bythymetric chart covering the western parts of the Romanche- and Chain Fracture Zones. West of the original Romanche Trench another deep trench with a medium depth of 6000 m was discovered. The maximum sounding obtained was 7028 m. Both trenches apparently belong to the same fracture zone, but are distinctly separated from each other. The estern boundary of the trench against the Brasil Basin is formed by a sill rising to a depth of about 4400 m. The serial hydrographic observations give some indications of the flow of the cold Westatlantic deep water in the fracture zone area and its influence on the hydrographic conditions in the East-Atlantic Basin. The upper limit of the nearly homogenious Westatlantic bottom water with an Antarctic components lies about 4400 m. The water mass entering the system of trenches of the Romanche Fracture Zone over the western sill originates from the lower part of the discontinuity layer lying above the bottom water. Potential temperatures of 0.6°C were the lowest observed by "Meteor" in the western trench. There seems to be a remarkable tongue of relatively high salinity and a minimum of oxygen in the deep water of this trench. At present we can only speculate upon the origin of this highly saline deep water tongue underneath the eastward moving relatively thin layer of less saline Westatlantic deep water. In the range of the sill separating both trenches a lee wave is indicated by the distribution of salinity and oxygen, which implies a vertical transport of water masses. Caused by this transport it is assumed that relatively cold water may be lifted temporarily to a depth, where it can pass the northbounding ridge, thus getting directly into the Sierra Leone Basin. In the original Romanche Trench the cold Westatlantic deep water seems to fill the whole trough, but its extension remains limited to the trench itself. The water masses found east of the sill separating the trench from the East-Atlantic Basin originate from the lower part of the discontinuity layer. With potential temperatures of about 1.3°C they are much warmer than those observed in the Romanche Trench bottom water.

Chemical composition of rocks and minerals from the Doldrums and Arkhangelsky Fracture Zones

The book deals with results of complex geological and geophysical studies in the Doldrums and Arkhangelsky Fracture Zones of the Central Atlantic. Description of the main features of bottom relief, sediments and crustal structure, geomagnetic field, composition of igneous and sedimentary rocks are given in the book. The authors made conclusions on tectonic delamination of the oceanic crust and existence of specific rock complexes forming non-spreading blocks

Chemical composition of rocks and minerals from the Central Atlantic fracture zones

The monograph summarizes materials on geology and deep structure of the Central Atlantic fracture zones. These materials have been obtained during eight expeditions of R/V ''Akademik Nikolaj Strakhov''. The studies have been based on the integrated geological approach. As a result, many new tectonic, magmatic, metallogenic and historical-geological features of these phenomenal structures of the deep ocean have been revealed.

Influence of structural heterogeneities and of large scale topography on imbricate gravitational rock slope failures: New insights from 3-D physical modeling and geomorphological analysis

Initial topography and inherited structural discontinuities are known to play a dominant role in rock slope stability. Previous 2-D physical modeling results demonstrated that even if few preexisting fractures are activated/propagated during gravitational failure all of those heterogeneities had a great influence on mobilized volume and its kinematics. The question we address in the present study is to determine if such a result is also observed in 3-D. As in 2-D previous models we examine geologically stable model configuration, based upon the well documented landslide at Randa, Switzerland. The 3-D models consisted of a homogeneous material in which several fracture zones were introduced in order to study simplified but realistic configurations of discontinuities (e.g. based on natural example rather than a parametric study). Results showed that the type of gravitational failure (deep-seated landslide or sequential failure) and resulting slope morphology evolution are the result of the interplay of initial topography and inherited preexisting fractures (orientation and density). The three main results are i) the initial topography exerts a strong control on gravitational slope failure. Indeed in each tested configuration (even in the isotropic one without fractures) the model is affected by a rock slide, ii) the number of simulated fracture sets greatly influences the volume mobilized and its kinematics, and iii) the failure zone involved in the 1991 event is smaller than the results produced by the analog modeling. This failure may indicate that the zone mobilized in 1991 is potentially only a part of a larger deep-seated landslide and/or wider deep seated gravitational slope deformation.

High-precision dating and origin of synsedimentary volcanism in the Late Carboniferous Salvan-Dorenaz basin (Aiguilles-Rouges Massif, Western Alps)

Late Variscan volcanic activity is documented in the Late Carboniferous Salvan-Dorenaz sedimentary basin and in the neighboring basement units of the Aiguilles-Rouges and Mont-Blanc crystalline massifs (Western Alps). Precise U/Pb isotopic dating, zircon morphology and geochemical analyses indicate that volcanism occurred during short-lived pulses and that coexisting crustal and mantle sources were involved in the production of melts. Volcanic and subvolcanic products were emplaced along major N-S to NNE-SSW transtensional fracture zones, similar to the ones that governed intense basement exhumation and that favored the formation and filling of the Late Carboniferous Salvan-Dorenaz continental basin. In the Aiguilles-Rouges massif, dacitic flows outcropping at the base of the Salvan-Dorenaz basin erupted at 308 +/- 3 Ma; they represent the surface equivalent of the nearby Vallorcine peraluminous granite and associated rhyolitic dykes (311 +/- 17 Ma). In the Mont Blanc massif, calc-alkaline rhyolitic dykes were emplaced simultaneously (307 +/- 2 Ma) at shallow crustal levels, but they derive from deeper magma sources denoting enhanced mantellic activity. Recently identified tuffs and volcaniclastic layers embedded at different levels of the Salvan-Dorenaz stratigraphic record testify a 295 +3/-4 Ma old episode of highly explosive volcanism from distant volcanic centers, possibly located in the Aar-Gotthard massifs (Central Alps). Their zircon typology is highly heterogeneous. documenting wall-rock contamination of the melts and/or admixture of crustal sediments, whereas consistent subpopulations point to high-temperature magmas of deep-seated origin and alkaline affinity. The dated volcanic layers from the Salvan-Dorenaz basin set the beginning of the detrital sedimentation at 308 +/- 3 Ma and constrain the deposition of 1.5-1.7 km thick of elastic sediments within a time span of 10-15 Ma. These results infer minimum, long-term subsidence rates during basin evolution in the order of >0.1 mm/a, while in the surrounding basement units estimated exhumation rates are in the range of 1 mm/a. All dated rocks contain inherited zircon populations about 350, 450 or 600 Ma old.