New criteria for evaluating methods of identifying hot spots

Identification of hot spots, also known as the sites with promise, black spots, accident-prone locations, or priority investigation locations, is an important and routine activity for improving the overall safety of roadway networks. Extensive literature focuses on methods for hot spot identification (HSID). A subset of this considerable literature is dedicated to conducting performance assessments of various HSID methods. A central issue in comparing HSID methods is the development and selection of quantitative and qualitative performance measures or criteria. The authors contend that currently employed HSID assessment criteria—namely false positives and false negatives—are necessary but not sufficient, and additional criteria are needed to exploit the ordinal nature of site ranking data. With the intent to equip road safety professionals and researchers with more useful tools to compare the performances of various HSID methods and to improve the level of HSID assessments, this paper proposes four quantitative HSID evaluation tests that are, to the authors’ knowledge, new and unique. These tests evaluate different aspects of HSID method performance, including reliability of results, ranking consistency, and false identification consistency and reliability. It is intended that road safety professionals apply these different evaluation tests in addition to existing tests to compare the performances of various HSID methods, and then select the most appropriate HSID method to screen road networks to identify sites that require further analysis. This work demonstrates four new criteria using 3 years of Arizona road section accident data and four commonly applied HSID methods [accident frequency ranking, accident rate ranking, accident reduction potential, and empirical Bayes (EB)]. The EB HSID method reveals itself as the superior method in most of the evaluation tests. In contrast, identifying hot spots using accident rate rankings performs the least well among the tests. The accident frequency and accident reduction potential methods perform similarly, with slight differences explained. The authors believe that the four new evaluation tests offer insight into HSID performance heretofore unavailable to analysts and researchers.

Evaluating Methods to Predict Streamflow at Ungauged Sites using Regional Flow Duration Curves: A Case Study

Precise information on streamflows is of major importance for planning and monitoring of water resources schemes related to hydro power, water supply, irrigation, flood control, and for maintaining ecosystem. Engineers encounter challenges when streamflow data are either unavailable or inadequate at target locations. To address these challenges, there have been efforts to develop methodologies that facilitate prediction of streamflow at ungauged sites. Conventionally, time intensive and data exhaustive rainfall-runoff models are used to arrive at streamflow at ungauged sites. Most recent studies show improved methods based on regionalization using Flow Duration Curves (FDCs). A FDC is a graphical representation of streamflow variability, which is a plot between streamflow values and their corresponding exceedance probabilities that are determined using a plotting position formula. It provides information on the percentage of time any specified magnitude of streamflow is equaled or exceeded. The present study assesses the effectiveness of two methods to predict streamflow at ungauged sites by application to catchments in Mahanadi river basin, India. The methods considered are (i) Regional flow duration curve method, and (ii) Area Ratio method. The first method involves (a) the development of regression relationships between percentile flows and attributes of catchments in the study area, (b) use of the relationships to construct regional FDC for the ungauged site, and (c) use of a spatial interpolation technique to decode information in FDC to construct streamflow time series for the ungauged site. Area ratio method is conventionally used to transfer streamflow related information from gauged sites to ungauged sites. Attributes that have been considered for the analysis include variables representing hydrology, climatology, topography, land-use/land- cover and soil properties corresponding to catchments in the study area. Effectiveness of the presented methods is assessed using jack knife cross-validation. Conclusions based on the study are presented and discussed. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Evaluating methods for estimating rare events with zero-heavy data: a simulation model estimating sea turtle bycatch in the pelagic longline fishery

Estimating rare events from zero-heavy data (data with many zero values) is a common challenge in fisheries science and ecology. For example, loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) and leatherback sea turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) account for less than 1% of total catch in the U.S. Atlantic pelagic longline fishery. Nevertheless, the Southeast Fisheries Science Center (SEFSC) of the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) is charged with assessing the effect of this fishery on these federally protected species. Annual estimates of loggerhead and leatherback bycatch in a fishery can affect fishery management and species conservation decisions. However, current estimates have wide confidence intervals, and their accuracy is unknown. We evaluate 3 estimation methods, each at 2 spatiotemporal scales, in simulations of 5 spatial scenarios representing incidental capture of sea turtles by the U.S. Atlantic pelagic longline fishery. The delta-log normal method of estimating bycatch for calendar quarter and fishing area strata was the least biased estimation method in the spatial scenarios believed to be most realistic. This result supports the current estimation procedure used by the SEFSC.

Evaluating methods for the isolation of marine-derived fungal strains and production of bioactive secondary metabolites

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Evaluating methods for the isolation of marine-derived fungal strains and production of bioactive secondary metabolites

In the present investigation we evaluate methods for the isolation and growth of marine-derived fungal strains in artificial media for the production of secondary metabolites. Inoculation of marine macroorganisms fragments in Petri dishes proved to be the most convenient procedure for the isolation of the largest number of strains. Among the growth media used, 3% malt extract showed the best result for strains isolation and growth, and yielded the largest number of strains from marine macroorganisms. The percentage of strains isolated using each of the growth media which yielded cytotoxic and/or antibiotic extracts was in the range of 23-35%, regardless of the growth media used. Further investigation of extracts obtained from different marine-derived fungal strains yielded several bioactive secondary metabolites, among which (E)-4-methoxy-5-(3-methoxybut-1-enyl)-6-methyl-2H-pyran-2-one is a new metabolite isolated from the Penicillium paxilli strain Ma(G)K.

Evaluating methods for determining water use in the High Plains in parts of Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming, 1979 /

Bibliography: p. 30.

Evaluating Methods of Calculating the Fixed Fee on Professional Service Contracts

The South Carolina Department of Transportation routinely retains Professional Consulting Engineering firms to provide engineering design and related professional services for the preparation of construction plans or design-build Request for Proposal bid packages for a wide variety of Federal-aid Highway Program roadway and bridge construction projects throughout South Carolina.The purpose of this project is to examine the current process of determining a "Fair and Reasonable" fixed fee for professional service contracts and to evaluate possible alternative methods including practices in other states that may improve the process, particularly in light of the considerable variation in audited overhead rates among consulting firms. In reviewing such alternative methods particular attention will be given to evaluating the potential impact of the method as an incentive to consulting firms to effectively manage their overhead costs.

Evaluation of methods for cultivating limbal mesenchymal stromal cells

Background: Mesenchymal stromal cells (MSC) with similar properties to bone marrow derived mesenchymal stromal cells (BM-MSC) have recently been grown from the limbus of the human cornea. We presently contribute to this novel area of research by evaluating methods for culturing human limbal MSC (L-MSC). Methods: Four basic strategies are compared: serum-supplemented medium (10% foetal bovine serum; FBS), standard serum-free medium supplemented with B-27, epidermal growth factor, and fibroblast growth factor 2, or one of two commercial serum-free media including Defined Keratinocyte Serum Free Medium (Invitrogen), and MesenCult-XF (Stem Cell Technologies). The phenotype of resulting cultures was examined using photography, flow cytometry (for CD34, CD45, CD73, CD90, CD105, CD141, CD271), immunocytochemistry (α-sma), differentiation assays (osteogenesis, adipogenesis, chrondrogenesis), and co-culture experiments with human limbal epithelial (HLE) cells. Results: While all techniques supported to varying degrees establishment of cultures, sustained growth and serial propagation was only achieved in 10% FBS medium or MesenCult-XF medium. Cultures established in 10% FBS medium were 70-80% CD34-/CD45-/CD90+/CD73+/CD105+, approximately 25% α-sma+, and displayed multi-potency. Cultures established in MesenCult-XF were >95% CD34-/CD45-/CD90+/CD73+/CD105+, 40% CD141+, rarely expressed α-sma, and displayed multi-potency. L-MSC supported growth of HLE cells, with the largest epithelial islands being observed in the presence of MesenCult-XF-grown L-MSC. All HLE cultures supported by L-MSC widely expressed the progenitor cell marker ∆Np63, along with the corneal differentiation marker cytokeratin 3. Conclusions: We conclude that MesenCult-XF® is a superior culture system for L-MSC, but further studies are required to explore the significance of CD141 expression in these cells.

Serial explant culture provides novel insights into the potential location and phenotype of corneal endothelial progenitor cells

The routine cultivation of human corneal endothelial cells, with the view to treating patients with endothelial dysfunction, remains a challenging task. While progress in this field has been buoyed by the proposed existence of progenitor cells for the corneal endothelium at the corneal limbus, strategies for exploiting this concept remain unclear. In the course of evaluating methods for growing corneal endothelial cells, we have noted a case where remarkable growth was achieved using a serial explant culture technique. Over the course of 7 months, a single explant of corneal endothelium, acquired from cadaveric human tissue, was sequentially seeded into 7 culture plates and on each occasion produced a confluent cell monolayer. Sample cultures were confirmed as endothelial in origin by positive staining for glypican-4. On each occasion, small cells, closest to the tissue explant, developed into a highly compact layer with an almost homogenous structure. This layer was resistant to removal with trypsin and produced continuous cell outgrowth during multiple culture periods. The small cells gave rise to larger cells with phase-bright cell boundaries and prominent immunostaining for both nestin and telomerase. Nestin and telomerase were also strongly expressed in small cells immediately adjacent to the wound site, following transfer of the explant to another culture plate. These findings are consistent with the theory that progenitor cells for the corneal endothelium reside within the limbus and provide new insights into expected expression patterns for nestin and telomerase within the differentiation pathway.

Qualidade da fragmentação no desmonte de rocha: análise preliminar

Mestrado em Engenharia Geotécnica e Geoambiente

Éducation alimentaire, nutritionnelle et sensorielle combinée au jardinage chez les jeunes : rôle des animateurs non professionnels de la nutrition

Les programmes éducatifs de jardinage alimentaire avec les jeunes offrent l’opportunité d’agir sur leurs connaissances nutritionnelles, préférences pour des légumes, sentiment d'efficacité personnelle à consommer des fruits et légumes, envie d'y goûter et leur consommation. Dans ces activités, certains obstacles peuvent freiner l'éducation alimentaire et nutritionnelle faite par des animateurs qui ne sont pas professionnels de la nutrition ou de la santé. Le présent projet consistait à développer un volet alimentaire et nutritionnel éducatif pour les "Jardins-jeunes" (JJ), un camp d'été en jardinage du Jardin botanique de Montréal, à offrir une courte formation en nutrition à ses animatrices, puis à évaluer leurs niveaux d'intérêt et de confiance personnelle à intégrer ce volet à l'édition 2013. Les méthodes d'évaluation auprès des animatrices comprenaient des entrevues de groupe, des questionnaires et une observation-terrain. La taille d'échantillon permettait uniquement une analyse qualitative des résultats. La formation semble avoir maintenu ou élevé les niveaux de confiance et de connaissances des animatrices sur plusieurs sujets alimentaires et nutritionnels. Les animatrices évoquent que les trois activités de trente minutes en alimentation et nutrition, intégrées aux JJ 2013, auraient favorisé l'éducation nutritionnelle, qui par ailleurs, fut limitée par manque de temps. Elles rapportent avoir perçu des effets positifs du programme sur les connaissances, attitudes et comportements alimentaires des jeunes. Nos résultats suggèrent qu'un volet d’éducation alimentaire et nutritionnelle peut être intégré à un programme de jardinage par des animateurs non spécialisés dans ces domaines, outillés et encadrés pour se sentir motivés et confiants dans leur rôle.

Evaluating Two Mass Screening Methods for Tungro Disease Resistance

Tungro is one of the most destructive viral diseases of rice in South and Southeast Asia. It is associated with two viruses---rice tungro bacilliform virus (RTBV) ,and rice tungro spherical virus (RTSV) (Hibino et al 1978). Both viruses are transmitted by the green leafhopper (GLH) Nephotettix virescens (Ling 1979), However, prior acquisition of RTSV is required for Ihe transmission of RTBV alone (Hibino 1983). Plants infected with both viruses show severe stunting and yellowing. Those infected with RTBV alone show mild stunting but no leaf discoloration whereas those infected with RTSV alone do not show any apparent symptoms (Hibino el al 1978). Since the late 1960s, tungro has been mainly managed through varietal resistance (Khush 1989). The instability of resistant varieties in the field (Dahal et .a1 1990) led to a reexamination of the nature of the incorporated sources of resistance and to the adoption of more precise and more accurate screening methods.

Evaluating and validating abundance monitoring methods in the absence of populations of known size: review and application to a passive tracking index

Rarely is it possible to obtain absolute numbers in free-ranging populations and although various direct and indirect methods are used to estimate abundance, few are validated against populations of known size. In this paper, we apply grounding, calibration and verification methods, used to validate mathematical models, to methods of estimating relative abundance. To illustrate how this might be done, we consider and evaluate the widely applied passive tracking index (PTI) methodology. Using published data, we examine the rationality of PTI methodology, how conceptually animal activity and abundance are related and how alternative methods are subject to similar biases or produce similar abundance estimates and trends. We then attune the method against populations representing a range of densities likely to be encountered in the field. Finally, we compare PTI trends against a prediction that adjacent populations of the same species will have similar abundance values and trends in activity. We show that while PTI abundance estimates are subject to environmental and behavioural stochasticity peculiar to each species, the PTI method and associated variance estimate showed high probability of detection, high precision of abundance values and, generally, low variability between surveys, and suggest that the PTI method applied using this procedure and for these species provides a sensitive and credible index of abundance. This same or similar validation approach can and should be applied to alternative relative abundance methods in order to demonstrate their credibility and justify their use.