Entrepreneurial decision-making using the knightian uncertainty approach

The article discusses the behavioral aspects that affect the entrepreneurs' decision making under the Knightian uncertainty approach. Since the profit arising from entrepreneurial activity represents the reward of an immeasurable and subjective risk, it has been hypothesized that innovative entrepreneurs have excessive optimism and confidence, which leads them to invest in high-risk activities. A behavioral model of decision making under uncertainty is used to test the hypothesis of overconfidence. This model is based on Bayesian inference, which allows us to model the assumption that these entrepreneurs are overconfident. We conclude that, under the hypothesis of overconfidence, these entrepreneurs decide to invest, despite the fact that the expected utility model indicates the contrary. This theoretical finding could explain why there are a large number of business failures in the first years of activity.

The influence of urban structures on entrepreneurial decision-making: a comparative analysis of Mexico City and São Paulo

Promover a atividade empreendedora é hoje mais do que nunca uma prioridade para as economias em desenvolvimento. Em diferentes partes do mundo, empreendedores têm sido reconhecidos como verdadeiros agentes de transformação, e as novas empresas que eles criam tornam-se condutoras de inovação, que ao final pode ser difundida ao resto da economia. Teorias de economia urbana, que analisam a dinâmica da relação entre aglomeração urbana e atividade econômica, enfatizam a importância da concentração espacial das indústrias num mesmo setor industrial. Entender os incentivos que dão início à atividade empreendedora é algo novo e o foco desses estudos tem sido principalmente em alguns poucos casos de economias industrializadas. Não obstante, o sucesso de um punhado de clusters de alta tecnologia, como o Vale do Silício, por exemplo, na Califórnia, Estados Unidos, não pode ser replicado, e as condições locais devem ser consideradas a fim de entender a surgimento desses ecossistemas. Este estudo pretende investigar os critérios em que os empreendedores fundamentam suas decisões quando selecionam as localizações do seu negócio. Especificamente, a pesquisa explora o recente movimento dos ecossistemas de empreendedores na Cidade do México e em São Paulo, as duas maiores áreas metropolitanas da América Latina, à luz das teorias de economia urbana. A fim de chegar aos resultados, a pesquisa segue o método baseado sobre uma análise comparativa de estudo de casos em dois bairros: Vila Leopoldina em São Paulo e a Colônia Roma Norte na Cidade do México. Os resultados consolidados baseados em entrevistas qualitativas realizadas nos dois bairros revelam que o lugar/sitio urbano, definido em termos de laços locais assim como da atmosfera geral do ambiente, continua sendo importante para os atores apesar das comunicações de alta velocidade que produzem mais interações entre as regiões do mundo. Além disso, a relação entre o empreendedor e o seu entorno é altamente dependente do estágio de desenvolvimento e da natureza da atividade da empresa; redes informais revelam-se essenciais para identificar as oportunidades de negócio antes de serem progressivamente substituídas por relações instituídas com fundos de capital de risco ou incubadoras. Estes dois ecossistemas nascentes geram suas próprias características, o que já pode sugerir suas futuras evoluções.

Constraints to the efficacy of risk management process in entrepreneurial companies

This paper highlights potential factors that affect the degree of efficacy of a formal risk management framework in entrepreneurial organisations. The understanding of entrepreneur’s self-schemas, entrepreneurial organisational culture and working environment is crucial to evaluate the efficacy of a risk management process. This research pointed out two main issues: i) the entrepreneurial decision making process with presence of biases and heuristics in judgement under uncertainty; and ii) the entrepreneurial organisational context that might create constraints to the implementation of a risk management framework.

International Agricultural Trade under Regulatory Asymmetry: An Economic Analysis of SME Export Behavior

Over the last three decades, international agricultural trade has grown significantly. Technological advances in transportation logistics and storage have created opportunities to ship anything almost anywhere. Bilateral and multilateral trade agreements have also opened new pathways to an increasingly global market place. Yet, international agricultural trade is often constrained by differences in regulatory regimes. The impact of “regulatory asymmetry” is particularly acute for small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) that lack resources and expertise to successfully operate in markets that have substantially different regulatory structures. As governments seek to encourage the development of SMEs, policy makers often confront the critical question of what ultimately motivates SME export behavior. Specifically, there is considerable interest in understanding how SMEs confront the challenges of regulatory asymmetry. Neoclassical models of the firm generally emphasize expected profit maximization under uncertainty, however these approaches do not adequately explain the entrepreneurial decision under regulatory asymmetry. Behavioral theories of the firm offer a far richer understanding of decision making by taking into account aspirations and adaptive performance in risky environments. This paper develops an analytical framework for decision making of a single agent. Considering risk, uncertainty and opportunity cost, the analysis focuses on the export behavior response of an SME in a situation of regulatory asymmetry. Drawing on the experience of fruit processor in Muzaffarpur, India, who must consider different regulatory environments when shipping fruit treated with sulfur dioxide, the study dissects the firm-level decision using @Risk, a Monte Carlo computational tool.

Career decision making, stability and actualization of career intentions : the case of entrepreneurial intentions

Career counselors are often concerned with stability and likelihood of implementation of clients' career intentions. It is often assumed that the status in career decision making (CDM) is one likely indicator; yet, empirical support for this assumption is sparse. The present study focused on entrepreneurial career intentions (EI) and showed that German university students (N = 1,221), with high EI can be found in very different empirically derived CDM statuses that range from preconcern to mature decidedness. Longitudinal analyses (n = 561) showed that career choice foreclosure (high decidedness/low exploration) related to more EI stability and that mature decidedness (high decidedness/high exploration) amplified effects of EI on opportunity identification, a form of EI actualization. The results imply that CDM statuses are useful to estimate stability and actualization of career intentions.

Interactions of decision mechanisms in an entrepreneurial firm’s journey to become a major player in its industry

This study discusses the interactions of different decision-making mechanisms in the process of change of a successful entrepreneurial dairy firm in Vietnam. The purpose of the study is to construct a theoretical framework, which explains the interactions between effectual and causal decision-making processes in different phases of business, and to provide a real life example with practical recommendations for entrepreneurs and managers. In order to achieve this purpose, a preliminary theoretical framework was built, using process theories applied to different decision making modes, referred to as causation and effectuation. The case was studied through ethnographic research method, with three semi-structured interviews, one unstructured interview, secondary data and observations within four months in 2013-2014. After the data was analyzed, a modified framework was drawn from the result. The finding of this study shows that there was an interaction between effectual and causal decision-making processes in different stages of the company’s development. The entrepreneur applied effectual decision-making process to develop a unique business model and a new dairy market segment. However, when a new market demand arose, the company’s resources became insufficient, they thus had to shift to causation process to adapt to market change. Simultaneously, with better-accumulated resources, the entrepreneur continued the effectuation process to create another brand new dairy market segment. This study, thus, contributes to effectuation theory, emphasizing the necessity of combining effectual and causal decision-making processes in different phases of business. It is suggested that business would develop with an effectual process until a business model is viable for growth. It continues to use this process up to a certain degree. When the market changes, the company needs to collect more means to adapt to the changes. They need to set new goals and this is a shift to the use of causal process, which builds on prediction. It uses goals and teleology as driving mechanisms and tries to exploit and fill potential resource gaps to achieve these goals. At the same time, there are new iterations that look to establish new lines or types of business with the given means, which are now well established. This again employs effectual mechanisms, which are based on evolutionary process, until they reach the stage of viable tested business model. Moreover, this study hopes to provide know-how to entrepreneurs and managers of small companies in similar situations, suggesting how to combine effectual and causal decision-making processes to deal with various circumstances in different times.

Career decision making, stability and actualization of career intentions: The case of entrepreneurial intentions

Career counselors are often concerned with stability and likelihood of implementation of clients’ career intentions. It is often assumed that the status in career decision making (CDM) is one likely indicator, yet empirical support for this assumption is sparse. The present study focused on entrepreneurial career intentions (EI) and showed that German university students (N = 1,221), with high EI can be found in very different empirically derived CDM statuses that range from pre-concern to mature decidedness. Longitudinal analyses (n = 561) showed that career choice foreclosure (high decidedness/low exploration) related to more EI stability and that mature decidedness (high decidedness/high exploration) amplified effects of EI on opportunity identification, a form of EI actualization. The results imply that CDM statuses are useful to estimate stability and actualization of career intentions.

Return on entrepreneurial passion: A study of funding success and timely delivery in crowdfunding

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Experiential learning from entrepreneurial failure

This paper examines the phenomenon of 'entrepreneurial failure' from a UK regionally-based qualitative study, being that of explanations for failure provided by entrepreneurial CEOs. This paper contends that there are valuable lessons to be learned, from explanations provided of failure, that may reduce the very high recorded mortality rates of entrepreneurial businesses, in particular that of nascent entrepreneurs. Our intention is to make nascent entrepreneurs and their advisors more aware of the consequences of the likely personal risks they will be assuming, especially before they embark on their new business ventures. This paper focuses strongly on entrepreneurial 'personality characteristics' which can detrimentally influence the quality of decision-making. We provide data of some 'experiential learning from failure' from our case studies, that were compiled from interviews with the former directors, following their completion of the questionnaire survey. We describe 'failed entrepreneurs' who have successfully restarted their businesses as 'phoenix' entrepreneurs.

Thin Capitalization Rules and Entrepreneurial Capital Structure Decisions

Tax planners often choose debt over equity financing. As this has led to increased corporate debt financing, many countries have introduced thin capitalization rules to secure their tax revenues. In a general capital structure model we analyze if thin capitalization rules affect dividend and financing decisions, and whether they can partially explain why corporations receive both debt and equity capital. We model the Belgian, German and Italian rules as examples. We find that the so-called Miller equilibrium and definite financing effects depend significantly on the underlying tax system. Further, our results are useful for the treasury to decide what thin capitalization type to implement.

How much Entrepreneurial Orientation (EO) is needed for Long-term Success?

According to the STEP research framework, entrepreneurial orientation (EO) is one key element of transgenerational value creation. EO refers to key entrepreneurial processes in a company, i.e. to the methods, practices and decision-making styles managers use to act entrepreneurially. 3 EO consists of five main dimensions and several sub dimensions. However, there is a puzzle. Many studies suggest that the higher EO, the more successful a company is. But this seems not always to be true. Just think of many of the dot.com firms at the end of the 1990s. Firm members could act very autonomously, the companies were very innovative, took high risks, were very proactive and very aggressive in the market. However, most of them were not able to survive for more than a few years. So how entrepreneurial has a firm to be in order to achieve long-term success?

Entrepreneurial entry:which institutions matter?

In this paper we explore the relationship between the individual decision to become an entrepreneur and the institutional context. We pinpoint the critical roles of property rights and the size of the state sector for entrepreneurial activity and test the relationships empirically by combining country-level institutional indicators for 44 countries with working age population survey data taken from the Global Enterprise Monitor. A methodological contribution is the use of factor analysis to reduce the statistical problems with the array of highly collinear institutional indicators. We find that the key institutional features that enhance entrepreneurial activity are indeed the rule of law and limits to the state sector. However, these results are sensitive to the level of development.

New dimensions on the economics of the entrepreneurial process

This thesis examines the transition of employees into entrepreneurship, with particular emphasis on the role of workplace characteristics in influencing this movement. The first main chapter examines whether the determinants of becoming an intrapreneur differ from those that support transitions into independent entrepreneurship. The results show that intrapreneurs resemble employees rather than entrepreneurs, contrary to what the entrepreneurship theory would suggest. Yet it shows that those intrapreneurs that expect to acquire an ownership stake in the business, unlike the rest of intrapreneurs, possess traditional entrepreneurial traits. Chapter 3 investigates how workers’ degree of specialisation determines their decision to found a firm. It shows that entrepreneurs emerging from small firms, i.e. generalists, transfer knowledge from more diverse aspects of the business and create firms more related to the main activity of their last employer. Workers in large firms, however, benefit from higher returns to human capital that increase their opportunity costs to switch to entrepreneurship. Since becoming an entrepreneur would make part of their specialised skills unutilised, the minimum quality of the idea at which they would be willing to leave will be higher and, therefore, entrepreneurs emerging from large firms will be of highest quality. Chapter 4 analyses whether the reason to terminate an employment contract is associated with the fact that the majority of entrepreneurs appear to set up their business after having worked for a small firm. Moreover, it studies how this pattern varies as the labour market conditions worsen. The effect of layoffs turns out to be a key driver in the entry to entrepreneurship and it is found to exert a greater effect the smaller the firm workers are dismissed from. This has been reflected in an overall larger flow of employees from small firms moving into entrepreneurship over the recession.

What's so entrepreneurial about intrapreneurs?

This paper discusses the determinants of becoming an intrapreneur. Individuals maximise their utility while deciding among three occupations: independent entrepreneurship, paid employment and intrapreneurship. I show that intrapreneurs resemble employees rather than entrepreneurs. Specifically, comparing the decision-making of intrapreneurs to that of entrepreneurs, the former are significantly more risk averse, expect lower but less uncertain reward and are broadly endowed with a poorer set of entrepreneurial abilities; despite having higher levels of human capital they fail to recognise business opportunities and have lower confidence in their entrepreneurial skills. A distinction within the category of intrapreneurship, based on the level of engagement and therefore the level of personal risks they bear, adds to our understanding of intrapreneurship. Engaged intrapreneurs, i. e., intrapreneurs that expect to acquire an ownership stake in the business, unlike the rest of intrapreneurs, share the attributes usually assumed to characterise entrepreneurs. © 2011 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.