An application of the Driver Behaviour Questionnaire in a large Australian organisational fleeting setting : can it predict crashes and demerit point loss?

This study reports on the utilisation of the Manchester Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) to examine the self-reported driving behaviours of a large sample of Australian fleet drivers (N = 3414). Surveys were completed by employees before they commenced a one day safety workshop intervention. Factor analysis techniques identified a three factor solution similar to previous research, which was comprised of: (a) errors, (b) highway-code violations and (c) aggressive driving violations. Two items traditionally related with highway-code violations were found to be associated with aggressive driving behaviours among the current sample. Multivariate analyses revealed that exposure to the road, errors and self-reported offences predicted crashes at work in the last 12 months, while gender, highway violations and crashes predicted offences incurred while at work. Importantly, those who received more fines at work were at an increased risk of crashing the work vehicle. However, overall, the DBQ demonstrated limited efficacy at predicting these two outcomes. This paper outlines the major findings of the study in regards to identifying and predicting aberrant driving behaviours and also highlights implications regarding the future utilisation of the DBQ within fleet settings.

Using the Driver Behaviour Questionnaire to predict crashes and demerit point loss : does it get better with larger sample sizes?

The Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) continues to be the most widely utilised self-report scale globally to assess crash risk and aberrant driving behaviours among motorists. However, the scale also attracts criticism regarding its perceived limited ability to accurately identify those most at risk of crash involvement. This study reports on the utilisation of the DBQ to examine the self-reported driving behaviours (and crash outcomes) of drivers in three separate Australian fleet samples (N = 443, N = 3414, & N = 4792), and whether combining the samples increases the tool’s predictive ability. Either on-line or paper versions of the questionnaire were completed by fleet employees in three organisations. Factor analytic techniques identified either three or four factor solutions (in each of the separate studies) and the combined sample produced expected factors of: (a) errors, (b) highway-code violations and (c) aggressive driving violations. Highway code violations (and mean scores) were comparable across the studies. However, across the three samples, multivariate analyses revealed that exposure to the road was the best predictor of crash involvement at work, rather than DBQ constructs. Furthermore, combining the scores to produce a sample of 8649 drivers did not improve the predictive ability of the tool for identifying crashes (e.g., 0.4% correctly identified) or for demerit point loss (0.3%). The paper outlines the major findings of this comparative sample study in regards to utilising self-report measurement tools to identify “at risk” drivers as well as the application of such data to future research endeavours.

The wrong tool for the job? The predictive powers of the DBQ in a sample of Queensland motorists

Introduction This study reports on the application of the Manchester Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) to examine the self-reported driving behaviours (e.g., speeding, errors & aggressive manoeuvres) and predict crash involvement among a sample of general Queensland motorists. Material and Methods Surveys were completed by 249 general motorists on-line or via a pen-and-paper format. Results A factor analysis revealed a three factor solution for the DBQ which was consistent with previous Australian-based research. It accounted for 40.5% of the total variance, although some cross-loadings were observed on nine of the twenty items. The internal reliability of the DBQ was satisfactory. However, multivariate analysis using the DBQ revealed little predictive ability of the tool to predict crash involvement or demerit point loss e.g. violation notices. Rather, exposure to the road was found to be predictive of crashes, although speeding did make a small contribution to those who recently received a violation notice. Conclusions Taken together, the findings contribute to a growing body of research that raises questions about the predictive ability of the most widely used driving assessment tool globally. Ongoing research (which also includes official crash and offence outcomes) is required to better understand the actual contribution that the DBQ can make to understanding and improving road safety. Future research should also aim to confirm whether this lack of predictive efficacy originates from broader issues inherent within self-report data (e.g., memory recall problems) or issues underpinning the conceptualisation of the scale.

Characteristics of Chinese drivers attending a mandatory training course following license suspension

Penalties and sanctions to deter risky/illegal behaviours are important components of traffic law enforcement. Sanctions can be applied to the vehicle (e.g., impoundment), the person (e.g., remedial programs or jail), or the licence (e.g., disqualification). For licence sanctions, some offences attract automatic suspension while others attract demerit points which can indirectly lead to licence loss. In China, a licence is suspended when a driver accrues twelve demerit points within one year. When this occurs, the person must undertake a one-week retraining course at their own expense and successfully pass an examination to become relicensed. Little is known about the effectiveness of this program. A pilot study was conducted in Zhejiang Province to examine basic information about participants of a retraining course. The aim was to gather baseline data for future comparison. Participants were recruited at a driver retraining centre in a large city in Zhejiang Province. In total, 239 suspended drivers completed an anonymous questionnaire which included demographic information, driving history, and crash involvement. Overall, 87% were male with an overall mean age of 35.02 years (SD=8.77; range 21-60 years). A large proportion (83.3%) of participants owned a vehicle. Commuting to work was reported by 64% as their main reason for driving, while 16.3% reported driving for work. Only 6.4% reported holding a licence for 1 year or less (M=8.14 years, SD=6.5, range 1-31 years) and people reported driving an average of 18.06 hours/week (SD=14.4, range 1-86 hours). This represents a relatively experienced group, especially given the increase in new drivers in China. The number of infringements reportedly received in the previous year ranged from 2 to 18 (M=4.6, SD=3.18); one third of participants reported having received 5 or more infringements. Approximately one third also reported having received infringements in the previous year but not paid them. Various strategies for avoiding penalties were reported. The most commonly reported traffic violations were: drink driving (DUI; 0.02-0.08 mg/100ml) with 61.5% reporting 1 such violation; and speeding (47.7% reported 1-10 violations). Only 2.2% of participants reported the more serious drunk driving violation (DWI; above 0.08mg/100ml). Other violations included disobeying traffic rules, using inappropriate licence, and licence plate destroyed/not displayed. Two-thirds of participants reported no crash involvement in the previous year while 14.2% reported involvement in 2-5 crashes. The relationship between infringements and crashes was limited, however there was a small, positive significant correlation between crashes and speeding infringements (r=.2, p=.004). Overall, these results indicate the need for improved compliance with the law among this sample of traffic offenders. For example, lower level drink driving (DUI) and speeding were the most commonly reported violations with some drivers having committed a large number in the previous year. It is encouraging that the more serious offence of drunk driving (DWI) was rarely reported. The effectiveness of this driver retraining program and the demerit point penalty system in China is currently unclear. Future research including driver follow up via longitudinal study is recommended to determine program effectiveness to enhance road safety in China.

Examining psychosocial influences on speeding in Australian and Chinese contexts : a social learning approach

Speeding remains a significant contributing factor to road trauma internationally, despite increasingly sophisticated speed management strategies being adopted around the world. Increases in travel speed are associated with increases in crash risk and crash severity. As speed choice is a voluntary behaviour, driver perceptions are important to our understanding of speeding and, importantly, to designing effective behavioural countermeasures. The four studies conducted in this program of research represent a comprehensive approach to examining psychosocial influences on driving speeds in two countries that are at very different levels of road safety development: Australia and China. Akers’ social learning theory (SLT) was selected as the theoretical framework underpinning this research and guided the development of key research hypotheses. This theory was chosen because of its ability to encompass psychological, sociological, and criminological perspectives in understanding behaviour, each of which has relevance to speeding. A mixed-method design was used to explore the personal, social, and legal influences on speeding among car drivers in Queensland (Australia) and Beijing (China). Study 1 was a qualitative exploration, via focus group interviews, of speeding among 67 car drivers recruited from south east Queensland. Participants were assigned to groups based on their age and gender, and additionally, according to whether they self-identified as speeding excessively or rarely. This study aimed to elicit information about how drivers conceptualise speeding as well as the social and legal influences on driving speeds. The findings revealed a wide variety of reasons and circumstances that appear to be used as personal justifications for exceeding speed limits. Driver perceptions of speeding as personally and socially acceptable, as well as safe and necessary were common. Perceptions of an absence of danger associated with faster driving speeds were evident, particularly with respect to driving alone. An important distinction between the speed-based groups related to the attention given to the driving task. Rare speeders expressed strong beliefs about the need to be mindful of safety (self and others) while excessive speeders referred to the driving task as automatic, an absent-minded endeavour, and to speeding as a necessity in order to remain alert and reduce boredom. For many drivers in this study, compliance with speed limits was expressed as discretionary rather than mandatory. Social factors, such as peer and parental influence were widely discussed in Study 1 and perceptions of widespread community acceptance of speeding were noted. In some instances, the perception that ‘everybody speeds’ appeared to act as one rationale for the need to raise speed limits. Self-presentation, or wanting to project a positive image of self was noted, particularly with respect to concealing speeding infringements from others to protect one’s image as a trustworthy and safe driver. The influence of legal factors was also evident. Legal sanctions do not appear to influence all drivers to the same extent. For instance, fear of apprehension appeared to play a role in reducing speeding for many, although previous experiences of detection and legal sanctions seemed to have had limited influence on reducing speeding among some drivers. Disregard for sanctions (e.g., driving while suspended), fraudulent demerit point use, and other strategies to avoid detection and punishment were widely and openly discussed. In Study 2, 833 drivers were recruited from roadside service stations in metropolitan and regional locations in Queensland. A quantitative research strategy assessed the relative contribution of personal, social, and legal factors to recent and future self-reported speeding (i.e., frequency of speeding and intentions to speed in the future). Multivariate analyses examining a range of factors drawn from SLT revealed that factors including self-identity (i.e., identifying as someone who speeds), favourable definitions (attitudes) towards speeding, personal experiences of avoiding detection and punishment for speeding, and perceptions of family and friends as accepting of speeding were all significantly associated with greater self-reported speeding. Study 3 was an exploratory, qualitative investigation of psychosocial factors associated with speeding among 35 Chinese drivers who were recruited from the membership of a motoring organisation and a university in Beijing. Six focus groups were conducted to explore similar issues to those examined in Study 1. The findings of Study 3 revealed many similarities with respect to the themes that arose in Australia. For example, there were similarities regarding personal justifications for speeding, such as the perception that posted limits are unreasonably low, the belief that individual drivers are able to determine safe travel speeds according to personal comfort with driving fast, and the belief that drivers possess adequate skills to control a vehicle at high speed. Strategies to avoid detection and punishment were also noted, though they appeared more widespread in China and also appeared, in some cases, to involve the use of a third party, a topic that was not reported by Australian drivers. Additionally, higher perceived enforcement tolerance thresholds were discussed by Chinese participants. Overall, the findings indicated perceptions of a high degree of community acceptance of speeding and a perceived lack of risk associated with speeds that were well above posted speed limits. Study 4 extended the exploratory research phase in China with a quantitative investigation involving 299 car drivers recruited from car washes in Beijing. Results revealed a relatively inexperienced sample with less than 5 years driving experience, on average. One third of participants perceived that the certainty of penalties when apprehended was low and a similar proportion of Chinese participants reported having previously avoided legal penalties when apprehended for speeding. Approximately half of the sample reported that legal penalties for speeding were ‘minimally to not at all’ severe. Multivariate analyses revealed that past experiences of avoiding detection and punishment for speeding, as well as favourable attitudes towards speeding, and perceptions of strong community acceptance of speeding were most strongly associated with greater self-reported speeding in the Chinese sample. Overall, the results of this research make several important theoretical contributions to the road safety literature. Akers’ social learning theory was found to be robust across cultural contexts with respect to speeding; similar amounts of variance were explained in self-reported speeding in the quantitative studies conducted in Australia and China. Historically, SLT was devised as a theory of deviance and posits that deviance and conformity are learned in the same way, with the balance of influence stemming from the ways in which behaviour is rewarded and punished (Akers, 1998). This perspective suggests that those who speed and those who do not are influenced by the same mechanisms. The inclusion of drivers from both ends of the ‘speeding spectrum’ in Study 1 provided an opportunity to examine the wider utility of SLT across the full range of the behaviour. One may question the use of a theory of deviance to investigate speeding, a behaviour that could, arguably, be described as socially acceptable and prevalent. However, SLT seemed particularly relevant to investigating speeding because of its inclusion of association, imitation, and reinforcement variables which reflect the breadth of factors already found to be potentially influential on driving speeds. In addition, driving is a learned behaviour requiring observation, guidance, and practice. Thus, the reinforcement and imitation concepts are particularly relevant to this behaviour. Finally, current speed management practices are largely enforcement-based and rely on the principles of behavioural reinforcement captured within the reinforcement component of SLT. Thus, the application of SLT to a behaviour such as speeding offers promise in advancing our understanding of the factors that influence speeding, as well as extending our knowledge of the application of SLT. Moreover, SLT could act as a valuable theoretical framework with which to examine other illegal driving behaviours that may not necessarily be seen as deviant by the community (e.g., mobile phone use while driving). This research also made unique contributions to advancing our understanding of the key components and the overall structure of Akers’ social learning theory. The broader SLT literature is lacking in terms of a thorough structural understanding of the component parts of the theory. For instance, debate exists regarding the relevance of, and necessity for including broader social influences in the model as captured by differential association. In the current research, two alternative SLT models were specified and tested in order to better understand the nature and extent of the influence of differential association on behaviour. Importantly, the results indicated that differential association was able to make a unique contribution to explaining self-reported speeding, thereby negating the call to exclude it from the model. The results also demonstrated that imitation was a discrete theoretical concept that should also be retained in the model. The results suggest a need to further explore and specify mechanisms of social influence in the SLT model. In addition, a novel approach was used to operationalise SLT variables by including concepts drawn from contemporary social psychological and deterrence-based research to enhance and extend the way that SLT variables have traditionally been examined. Differential reinforcement was conceptualised according to behavioural reinforcement principles (i.e., positive and negative reinforcement and punishment) and incorporated concepts of affective beliefs, anticipated regret, and deterrence-related concepts. Although implicit in descriptions of SLT, little research has, to date, made use of the broad range of reinforcement principles to understand the factors that encourage or inhibit behaviour. This approach has particular significance to road user behaviours in general because of the deterrence-based nature of many road safety countermeasures. The concept of self-identity was also included in the model and was found to be consistent with the definitions component of SLT. A final theoretical contribution was the specification and testing of a full measurement model prior to model testing using structural equation modelling. This process is recommended in order to reduce measurement error by providing an examination of the psychometric properties of the data prior to full model testing. Despite calls for such work for a number of decades, the current work appears to be the only example of a full measurement model of SLT. There were also a number of important practical implications that emerged from this program of research. Firstly, perceptions regarding speed enforcement tolerance thresholds were highlighted as a salient influence on driving speeds in both countries. The issue of enforcement tolerance levels generated considerable discussion among drivers in both countries, with Australian drivers reporting lower perceived tolerance levels than Chinese drivers. It was clear that many drivers used the concept of an enforcement tolerance in determining their driving speed, primarily with the desire to drive faster than the posted speed limit, yet remaining within a speed range that would preclude apprehension by police. The quantitative results from Studies 2 and 4 added support to these qualitative findings. Together, the findings supported previous research and suggested that a travel speed may not be seen as illegal until that speed reaches a level over the prescribed enforcement tolerance threshold. In other words, the enforcement tolerance appears to act as a ‘de facto’ speed limit, replacing the posted limit in the minds of some drivers. The findings from the two studies conducted in China (Studies 2 and 4) further highlighted the link between perceived enforcement tolerances and a ‘de facto’ speed limit. Drivers openly discussed driving at speeds that were well above posted speed limits and some participants noted their preference for driving at speeds close to ‘50% above’ the posted limit. This preference appeared to be shaped by the perception that the same penalty would be imposed if apprehended, irrespective of what speed they travelling (at least up to 50% above the limit). Further research is required to determine whether the perceptions of Chinese drivers are mainly influenced by the Law of the People’s Republic of China or by operational practices. Together, the findings from both studies in China indicate that there may be scope to refine enforcement tolerance levels, as has happened in other jurisdictions internationally over time, in order to reduce speeding. Any attempts to do so would likely be assisted by the provision of information about the legitimacy and purpose of speed limits as well as risk factors associated with speeding because these issues were raised by Chinese participants in the qualitative research phase. Another important practical implication of this research for speed management in China is the way in which penalties are determined. Chinese drivers described perceptions of unfairness and a lack of transparency in the enforcement system because they were unsure of the penalty that they would receive if apprehended. Steps to enhance the perceived certainty and consistency of the system to promote a more equitable approach to detection and punishment would appear to be welcomed by the general driving public and would be more consistent with the intended theoretical (deterrence) basis that underpins the current speed enforcement approach. The use of mandatory, fixed penalties may assist in this regard. In many countries, speeding attracts penalties that are dependent on the severity of the offence. In China, there may be safety benefits gained from the introduction of a similar graduated scale of speeding penalties and fixed penalties might also help to address the issue of uncertainty about penalties and related perceptions of unfairness. Such advancements would be in keeping with the principles of best practice for speed management as identified by the World Health Organisation. Another practical implication relating to legal penalties, and applicable to both cultural contexts, relates to the issues of detection and punishment avoidance. These two concepts appeared to strongly influence speeding in the current samples. In Australia, detection avoidance strategies reported by participants generally involved activities that are not illegal (e.g., site learning and remaining watchful for police vehicles). The results from China were similar, although a greater range of strategies were reported. The most common strategy reported in both countries for avoiding detection when speeding was site learning, or familiarisation with speed camera locations. However, a range of illegal practices were also described by Chinese drivers (e.g., tampering with or removing vehicle registration plates so as to render the vehicle unidentifiable on camera and use of in-vehicle radar detectors). With regard to avoiding punishment when apprehended, a range of strategies were reported by drivers from both countries, although a greater range of strategies were reported by Chinese drivers. As the results of the current research indicated that detection avoidance was strongly associated with greater self-reported speeding in both samples, efforts to reduce avoidance opportunities are strongly recommended. The practice of randomly scheduling speed camera locations, as is current practice in Queensland, offers one way to minimise site learning. The findings of this research indicated that this practice should continue. However, they also indicated that additional strategies are needed to reduce opportunities to evade detection. The use of point-to-point speed detection (also known as sectio

The impact of penalty increases on speeding behaviour in Queensland and a characterisation of speeding offenders

This project examined the effects of speeding penalty changes that occurred in Queensland in 2003 on the behaviour of speeding offenders. These penalty changes included increasing the number of offence categories, and in turn narrowing the range of speeds associated with the offence categories; increasing the monetary fines for all offences, with the largest increases observed for high-range offences; and introducing automatic licence suspension and an eight demerit point penalty for the highest offence category. To explore the impact of the penalty changes, offence data collected for two cohorts of motorists in Queensland who were caught speeding prior to and subsequent to the penalty changes (N = 84,456) were compared. The first cohort consisted of individuals (operators of all vehicles including motorcycles) who committed a speeding offence in May 2001 (two years prior to the speeding penalty change); and individuals who committed a speeding offence in May 2003 (one month after the introduction of the penalty change). Four measures of recidivism were devised and used to assess the effects of the new penalties with regard to deterring the speeding behaviour of offenders. Additionally, the project investigated the relationship between speeding offences, other risky driving behaviours, crash involvement, and criminal behaviour.

The wave transmission coefficients and coupling loss factors of point connected structures

This analysis is concerned with the calculation of the elastic wave transmission coefficients and coupling loss factors between an arbitrary number of structural components that are coupled at a point. A general approach to the problem is presented and it is demonstrated that the resulting coupling loss factors satisfy reciprocity. A key aspect of the method is the consideration of cylindrical waves in two-dimensional components, and this builds upon recent results regarding the energetics of diffuse wavefields when expressed in cylindrical coordinates. Specific details of the method are given for beam and thin plate components, and a number of examples are presented. © 2002 Acoustical Society of America.

Point mutation tRNA(Ser(UCN)) in a child with hearing loss and myoclonus epilepsy

We report on a family with a 12-year-old boy who suffered from a maternally inherited syndrome characterized by a combination of sensorineural hearing loss, myoclonus epilepsy, ataxia, severe psychomotor retardation, short stature, and diabetes mellitus. First, he showed a muscular hypotonia with hearing loss; later, he developed a myoclonus epilepsy, growth failure, and severe psychomotor retardation. At the age of 10 years, he developed diabetes mellitus. After initiation of combined ubiquinone and vitamin C treatment, we observed a progression in psychomotor development. Lactate and pyruvate levels in blood and cerebrospinal fluid were normal. No ragged red fibers or ultrastructural abnormalities were seen in a skeletal muscle biopsy. Biochemical assays of respiratory chain complex activities revealed decreased activity of complexes I and IV. By sequence analysis of mitochondrial DNA encoding transfer ribonucleic acids (RNAs), a homoplasmic T to C substitution at nucleotide position 7512 was found affecting a highly conserved base pair in the tRNA(ser(UCN)) acceptor stem. Asymptomatic family members of the maternal line were heteroplasmic for the mutation in blood samples. Analysis of mitochondrial DNA in patients with hearing loss and myoclonus epilepsy is recommended, even in the absence of laboratory findings. Therapeutically, ubiquinone and antioxidants can be beneficial.

Point mutations in the stem region and the fourth AAA domain of cytoplasmic dynein heavy chain partially suppress the phenotype of NUDF/LIS1 loss in Aspergillus nidulans

Cytoplasmic dynein performs multiple cellular tasks but its regulation remains unclear. The dynein heavy chain has a N-terminal stem that binds to other subunits and a C-terminal motor unit that contains six AAA (ATPase associated with cellular activities) domains and a microtubule-binding site located between AAA4 and AAA5. In Aspergillus nidulans, NUDF (a LIS1 homolog) functions in the dynein pathway, and two nudF6 partial suppressors were mapped to the nudA dynein heavy chain locus. Here we identified these two mutations. The nudAL1098F mutation resides in the stem region, and nudAR3086C is in the end of AAA4. These mutations partially suppress the phenotype of nudF deletion but do not suppress the phenotype exhibited by mutants of dynein intermediate chain and Arp1. Surprisingly, the stronger DeltanudF suppressor, nudAR3086C, causes an obvious decrease in the basal level of dynein's ATPase activity and an increase in dynein's distribution along microtubules. Thus, suppression of the DeltanudF phenotype may result from mechanisms other than simply the enhancement of dynein's ATPase activity. The fact that a mutation in the end of AAA4 negatively regulates dynein's ATPase activity but partially compensates for NUDF loss indicates the importance of the AAA4 domain in dynein regulation in vivo.

Deterministic diffraction loss modelling for novel broadband communication in rural environments

This paper presents a deterministic modelling approach to predict diffraction loss for an innovative Multi-User-Single-Antenna (MUSA) MIMO technology, proposed for rural Australian environments. In order to calculate diffraction loss, six receivers have been considered around an access point in a selected rural environment. Generated terrain profiles for six receivers are presented in this paper. Simulation results using classical diffraction models and diffraction theory are also presented by accounting the rural Australian terrain data. Results show that in an area of 900 m by 900 m surrounding the receivers, path loss due to diffraction can range between 5 dB and 35 dB. Diffraction loss maps can contribute to determine the optimal location for receivers of MUSA-MIMO systems in rural areas.

Evaluating multivariate volatility forecasts : how effective are statistical and economic loss functions?

Multivariate volatility forecasts are an important input in many financial applications, in particular portfolio optimisation problems. Given the number of models available and the range of loss functions to discriminate between them, it is obvious that selecting the optimal forecasting model is challenging. The aim of this thesis is to thoroughly investigate how effective many commonly used statistical (MSE and QLIKE) and economic (portfolio variance and portfolio utility) loss functions are at discriminating between competing multivariate volatility forecasts. An analytical investigation of the loss functions is performed to determine whether they identify the correct forecast as the best forecast. This is followed by an extensive simulation study examines the ability of the loss functions to consistently rank forecasts, and their statistical power within tests of predictive ability. For the tests of predictive ability, the model confidence set (MCS) approach of Hansen, Lunde and Nason (2003, 2011) is employed. As well, an empirical study investigates whether simulation findings hold in a realistic setting. In light of these earlier studies, a major empirical study seeks to identify the set of superior multivariate volatility forecasting models from 43 models that use either daily squared returns or realised volatility to generate forecasts. This study also assesses how the choice of volatility proxy affects the ability of the statistical loss functions to discriminate between forecasts. Analysis of the loss functions shows that QLIKE, MSE and portfolio variance can discriminate between multivariate volatility forecasts, while portfolio utility cannot. An examination of the effective loss functions shows that they all can identify the correct forecast at a point in time, however, their ability to discriminate between competing forecasts does vary. That is, QLIKE is identified as the most effective loss function, followed by portfolio variance which is then followed by MSE. The major empirical analysis reports that the optimal set of multivariate volatility forecasting models includes forecasts generated from daily squared returns and realised volatility. Furthermore, it finds that the volatility proxy affects the statistical loss functions’ ability to discriminate between forecasts in tests of predictive ability. These findings deepen our understanding of how to choose between competing multivariate volatility forecasts.