Identification, Weak Instruments and Statistical Inference in Econometrics

We discuss statistical inference problems associated with identification and testability in econometrics, and we emphasize the common nature of the two issues. After reviewing the relevant statistical notions, we consider in turn inference in nonparametric models and recent developments on weakly identified models (or weak instruments). We point out that many hypotheses, for which test procedures are commonly proposed, are not testable at all, while some frequently used econometric methods are fundamentally inappropriate for the models considered. Such situations lead to ill-defined statistical problems and are often associated with a misguided use of asymptotic distributional results. Concerning nonparametric hypotheses, we discuss three basic problems for which such difficulties occur: (1) testing a mean (or a moment) under (too) weak distributional assumptions; (2) inference under heteroskedasticity of unknown form; (3) inference in dynamic models with an unlimited number of parameters. Concerning weakly identified models, we stress that valid inference should be based on proper pivotal functions —a condition not satisfied by standard Wald-type methods based on standard errors — and we discuss recent developments in this field, mainly from the viewpoint of building valid tests and confidence sets. The techniques discussed include alternative proposed statistics, bounds, projection, split-sampling, conditioning, Monte Carlo tests. The possibility of deriving a finite-sample distributional theory, robustness to the presence of weak instruments, and robustness to the specification of a model for endogenous explanatory variables are stressed as important criteria assessing alternative procedures.

A conditional likelihood ratio test for structural models

This paper develops a general method for constructing similar tests based on the conditional distribution of nonpivotal statistics in a simultaneous equations model with normal errors and known reducedform covariance matrix. The test based on the likelihood ratio statistic is particularly simple and has good power properties. When identification is strong, the power curve of this conditional likelihood ratio test is essentially equal to the power envelope for similar tests. Monte Carlo simulations also suggest that this test dominates the Anderson- Rubin test and the score test. Dropping the restrictive assumption of disturbances normally distributed with known covariance matrix, approximate conditional tests are found that behave well in small samples even when identification is weak.

An asymptotic test for the Conditional Value-at-Risk

Conditional Value-at-Risk (equivalent to the Expected Shortfall, Tail Value-at-Risk and Tail Conditional Expectation in the case of continuous probability distributions) is an increasingly popular risk measure in the fields of actuarial science, banking and finance, and arguably a more suitable alternative to the currently widespread Value-at-Risk. In my paper, I present a brief literature survey, and propose a statistical test of the location of the CVaR, which may be applied by practising actuaries to test whether CVaR-based capital levels are in line with observed data. Finally, I conclude with numerical experiments and some questions for future research.

Modeling multivariate autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity with the double smooth transition conditional correlation GARCH Model

In this paper, we propose a multivariate GARCH model with a time-varying conditional correlation structure. The new double smooth transition conditional correlation (DSTCC) GARCH model extends the smooth transition conditional correlation (STCC) GARCH model of Silvennoinen and Teräsvirta (2005) by including another variable according to which the correlations change smoothly between states of constant correlations. A Lagrange multiplier test is derived to test the constancy of correlations against the DSTCC-GARCH model, and another one to test for another transition in the STCC-GARCH framework. In addition, other specification tests, with the aim of aiding the model building procedure, are considered. Analytical expressions for the test statistics and the required derivatives are provided. Applying the model to the stock and bond futures data, we discover that the correlation pattern between them has dramatically changed around the turn of the century. The model is also applied to a selection of world stock indices, and we find evidence for an increasing degree of integration in the capital markets.

Conditional coskewness and asset pricing

We explore the empirical usefulness of conditional coskewness to explain the cross-section of equity returns. We find that coskewness is an important determinant of the returns to equity, and that the pricing relationship varies through time. In particular we find that when the conditional market skewness is positive investors are willing to sacrifice 7.87% annually per unit of gamma (a standardized measure of coskewness risk) while they only demand a premium of 1.80% when the market is negatively skewed. A similar picture emerges from the coskewness factor of Harvey and Siddique (Harvey, C., Siddique, A., 2000a. Conditional skewness in asset pricing models tests. Journal of Finance 65, 1263–1295.) (a portfolio that is long stocks with small coskewness with the market and short high coskewness stocks) which earns 5.00% annually when the market is positively skewed but only 2.81% when the market is negatively skewed. The conditional two-moment CAPM and a conditional Fama and French (Fama, E., French, K., 1992. The cross-section of expected returns. Journal of Finance 47,427465.) three-factor model are rejected, but a model which includes coskewness is not rejected by the data. The model also passes a structural break test which many existing asset pricing models fail.

Modeling conditional correlations of asset returns : a smooth transition approach

In this paper we propose a new multivariate GARCH model with time-varying conditional correlation structure. The time-varying conditional correlations change smoothly between two extreme states of constant correlations according to a predetermined or exogenous transition variable. An LM–test is derived to test the constancy of correlations and LM- and Wald tests to test the hypothesis of partially constant correlations. Analytical expressions for the test statistics and the required derivatives are provided to make computations feasible. An empirical example based on daily return series of five frequently traded stocks in the S&P 500 stock index completes the paper.

The v-MFG test: Investigating maternal, offspring and maternal-fetal genetic incompatibility effects on disease and viability

The MFG test is a family-based association test that detects genetic effects contributing to disease in offspring, including offspring allelic effects, maternal allelic effects and MFG incompatibility effects. Like many other family-based association tests, it assumes that the offspring survival and the offspring-parent genotypes are conditionally independent provided the offspring is affected. However, when the putative disease-increasing locus can affect another competing phenotype, for example, offspring viability, the conditional independence assumption fails and these tests could lead to incorrect conclusions regarding the role of the gene in disease. We propose the v-MFG test to adjust for the genetic effects on one phenotype, e.g., viability, when testing the effects of that locus on another phenotype, e.g., disease. Using genotype data from nuclear families containing parents and at least one affected offspring, the v-MFG test models the distribution of family genotypes conditional on offspring phenotypes. It simultaneously estimates genetic effects on two phenotypes, viability and disease. Simulations show that the v-MFG test produces accurate genetic effect estimates on disease as well as on viability under several different scenarios. It generates accurate type-I error rates and provides adequate power with moderate sample sizes to detect genetic effects on disease risk when viability is reduced. We demonstrate the v-MFG test with HLA-DRB1 data from study participants with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and their parents, we show that the v-MFG test successfully detects an MFG incompatibility effect on RA while simultaneously adjusting for a possible viability loss.

Conditional Probability-Based Significance Tests for Sequential Patterns in Multineuronal Spike Trains

We consider the problem of detecting statistically significant sequential patterns in multineuronal spike trains. These patterns are characterized by ordered sequences of spikes from different neurons with specific delays between spikes. We have previously proposed a data-mining scheme to efficiently discover such patterns, which occur often enough in the data. Here we propose a method to determine the statistical significance of such repeating patterns. The novelty of our approach is that we use a compound null hypothesis that not only includes models of independent neurons but also models where neurons have weak dependencies. The strength of interaction among the neurons is represented in terms of certain pair-wise conditional probabilities. We specify our null hypothesis by putting an upper bound on all such conditional probabilities. We construct a probabilistic model that captures the counting process and use this to derive a test of significance for rejecting such a compound null hypothesis. The structure of our null hypothesis also allows us to rank-order different significant patterns. We illustrate the effectiveness of our approach using spike trains generated with a simulator.

Conditional silencing of topoisomerase I gene of Mycobacterium tuberculosis validates its essentiality for cell survival

Topoisomerases are an important class of enzymes for regulating the DNA transaction processes. Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) is one of the most formidable pathogens also posing serious challenges for therapeutic interventions. The organism contains only one type IA topoisomerase (Rv3646c), offering an opportunity to test its potential as a candidate drug target. To validate the essentiality of M.tuberculosis topoisomerase I (TopoI(Mt)) for bacterial growth and survival, we have generated a conditionally regulated strain of topoI in Mtb. The conditional knockdown mutant exhibited delayed growth on agar plate. In liquid culture, the growth was drastically impaired when TopoI expression was suppressed. Additionally, novobiocin and isoniazid showed enhanced inhibitory potential against the conditional mutant. Analysis of the nucleoid revealed its altered architecture upon TopoI depletion. These studies establish the essentiality of TopoI for the M.tuberculosis growth and open up new avenues for targeting the enzyme.

A Non-Parametric Dimension Test of the Term Structure

Published as an article in: Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2004, vol. 8, issue 3, article 6.

Can the change in the composition of the US GDP explain the Great Moderation? A test via oil price shocks

The paper investigates whether the growing GDP share of the services sector can contribute to explain the great moderation in the US. We identify and analyze three oil price shocks and use a SVAR analysis to measure their economic impact on the US economy at both the aggregate and the sectoral level. We find mixed support for the explanation of the great moderation in terms of shrinking oil shock volatilities and observe that increases (decreases) in oil shock volatilities are contrasted by a weakening (strengthening) in their transmission mechanism. Across sectors, services are the least affected by any oil shock. As the contribution of services to the GDP volatility increases over time, we conclude that a composition effect contributed to moderate the conditional volatility to oil shocks of the US GDP.

Engineering nucleic acid mechanisms for regulation and readout of gene expression : conditional Dicer substrate formation and sensitive multiplexed northern blots

Nucleic acids are most commonly associated with the genetic code, transcription and gene expression. Recently, interest has grown in engineering nucleic acids for biological applications such as controlling or detecting gene expression. The natural presence and functionality of nucleic acids within living organisms coupled with their thermodynamic properties of base-pairing make them ideal for interfacing (and possibly altering) biological systems. We use engineered small conditional RNA or DNA (scRNA, scDNA, respectively) molecules to control and detect gene expression. Three novel systems are presented: two for conditional down-regulation of gene expression via RNA interference (RNAi) and a third system for simultaneous sensitive detection of multiple RNAs using labeled scRNAs.

RNAi is a powerful tool to study genetic circuits by knocking down a gene of interest. RNAi executes the logic: If gene Y is detected, silence gene Y. The fact that detection and silencing are restricted to the same gene means that RNAi is constitutively on. This poses a significant limitation when spatiotemporal control is needed. In this work, we engineered small nucleic acid molecules that execute the logic: If mRNA X is detected, form a Dicer substrate that targets independent mRNA Y for silencing. This is a step towards implementing the logic of conditional RNAi: If gene X is detected, silence gene Y. We use scRNAs and scDNAs to engineer signal transduction cascades that produce an RNAi effector molecule in response to hybridization to a nucleic acid target X. The first mechanism is solely based on hybridization cascades and uses scRNAs to produce a double-stranded RNA (dsRNA) Dicer substrate against target gene Y. The second mechanism is based on hybridization of scDNAs to detect a nucleic acid target and produce a template for transcription of a short hairpin RNA (shRNA) Dicer substrate against target gene Y. Test-tube studies for both mechanisms demonstrate that the output Dicer substrate is produced predominantly in the presence of a correct input target and is cleaved by Dicer to produce a small interfering RNA (siRNA). Both output products can lead to gene knockdown in tissue culture. To date, signal transduction is not observed in cells; possible reasons are explored.

Signal transduction cascades are composed of multiple scRNAs (or scDNAs). The need to study multiple molecules simultaneously has motivated the development of a highly sensitive method for multiplexed northern blots. The core technology of our system is the utilization of a hybridization chain reaction (HCR) of scRNAs as the detection signal for a northern blot. To achieve multiplexing (simultaneous detection of multiple genes), we use fluorescently tagged scRNAs. Moreover, by using radioactive labeling of scRNAs, the system exhibits a five-fold increase, compared to the literature, in detection sensitivity. Sensitive multiplexed northern blot detection provides an avenue for exploring the fate of scRNAs and scDNAs in tissue culture.

Towards conditional RNAi : shape and sequence transduction with small conditional RNAs

RNA interference (RNAi) is a powerful biological pathway allowing for sequence-specific knockdown of any gene of interest. While RNAi is a proven tool for probing gene function in biological circuits, it is limited by being constitutively ON and executes the logical operation: silence gene Y. To provide greater control over post-transcriptional gene silencing, we propose engineering a biological logic gate to implement “conditional RNAi.” Such a logic gate would silence gene Y only upon the expression of gene X, a completely unrelated gene, executing the logic: if gene X is transcribed, silence independent gene Y. Silencing of gene Y could be confined to a specific time and/or tissue by appropriately selecting gene X.

To implement the logic of conditional RNAi, we present the design and experimental validation of three nucleic acid self-assembly mechanisms which detect a sub-sequence of mRNA X and produce a Dicer substrate specific to gene Y. We introduce small conditional RNAs (scRNAs) to execute the signal transduction under isothermal conditions. scRNAs are small RNAs which change conformation, leading to both shape and sequence signal transduction, in response to hybridization to an input nucleic acid target. While all three conditional RNAi mechanisms execute the same logical operation, they explore various design alternatives for nucleic acid self-assembly pathways, including the use of duplex and monomer scRNAs, stable versus metastable reactants, multiple methods of nucleation, and 3-way and 4-way branch migration.

We demonstrate the isothermal execution of the conditional RNAi mechanisms in a test tube with recombinant Dicer. These mechanisms execute the logic: if mRNA X is detected, produce a Dicer substrate targeting independent mRNA Y. Only the final Dicer substrate, not the scRNA reactants or intermediates, is efficiently processed by Dicer. Additional work in human whole-cell extracts and a model tissue-culture system delves into both the promise and challenge of implementing conditional RNAi in vivo.

Hidden Conditional Random Fields for Visual Speech Recognition

In this paper we present the application of Hidden Conditional Random Fields (HCRFs) to modelling speech for visual speech recognition. HCRFs may be easily adapted to model long range dependencies across an observation sequence. As a result visual word recognition performance can be improved as the model is able to take more of a contextual approach to generating state sequences. Results are presented from a speaker-dependent, isolated digit, visual speech recognition task using comparisons with a baseline HMM system. We firstly illustrate that word recognition rates on clean video using HCRFs can be improved by increasing the number of past and future observations being taken into account by each state. Secondly we compare model performances using various levels of video compression on the test set. As far as we are aware this is the first attempted use of HCRFs for visual speech recognition.