Systematic liquidity: commonality and inter-temporal variation in the Portuguese stock market

[EN] The aim of this paper is to study systematic liquidity at the Euronext Lisbon Stock Exchange. The motivation for this research is provided by the growing interest in financial literature about stock liquidity and the implications of commonality in liquidity for asset pricing since it could represent a source of non-diversifiable risk. Namely, it is analysed whether there exist common factors that drive the variation in individual stock liquidity and the causes of the inter-temporal variation of aggregate liquidity. Monthly data for the period between January 1988 and December 2011 is used to compute some of the most used proxies for liquidity: bid-ask spreads, turnover rate, trading volume, proportion of zero returns and the illiquidity ratio. Following Chordia et al. (2000) methodology, some evidence of commonality in liquidity is found in the Portuguese stock market when the proportion of zero returns is used as a measure of liquidity. In relation to the factors that drive the inter-temporal variation of the Portuguese stock market liquidity, the results obtained within a VAR framework suggest that changes in real economy activity, monetary policy (proxied by changes in monetary aggregate M1) and stock market returns play an important role as determinants of commonality in liquidity.

Commonality in Returns, Order Flows, and Liquidity in the Greek Stock Market

Using a unique high-frequency data-set on a comprehensive sample of Greek blue-chip stocks, spanning from September 2003 through March 2006, this note assesses the extent and role of commonality in returns, order flows (OFs), and liquidity. It also formally models aggregate equity returns in terms of aggregate equity OF, in an effort to clarify OF's importance in explaining returns for the Athens Exchange market. Almost a quarter of the daily returns in the FTSE/ATHEX20 index is explained by aggregate own OF. In a second step, using principal components and canonical correlation analyses, we document substantial common movements in returns, OFs, and liquidity, both on a market-wide basis and on an individual security basis. These results emphasize that asset pricing and liquidity cannot be analyzed in isolation from each other.

Pricing of Liquidity Risks in London Stock Exchange

This thesis aims to investigate pricing of liquidity risks in London Stock Exchange. Liquidity Adjusted Capital Asset Pricing Model i.e. LCAPM developed by Acharya and Pedersen (2005) is being applied to test the influence of various liquidity risks on stock returns in London Stock Exchange. The Liquidity Adjusted Capital Asset Pricing model provides a unified framework for the testing of liquidity risks. All the common stocks listed and delisted for the period of 2000 to 2014 are included in the data sample. The study has incorporated three different measures of liquidity – Percent Quoted Spread, Amihud (2002) and Turnover. The reason behind the application of three different liquidity measures is the multi-dimensional nature of liquidity. Firm fixed effects panel regression is applied for the estimation of LCAPM. However, the results are robust according to Fama-Macbeth regressions. The results of the study indicates that liquidity risks in the form of (i) level of liquidity, (ii) commonality in liquidity (iii) flight to liquidity, (iv) depressed wealth effect and market return as well as aggregate liquidity risk are priced at London Stock Exchange. However, the results are sensitive to the choice of liquidity measures.

The microstructure of the foreign exchange market:the determinants of bid-ask spreads in the foreign exchange market

The purpose of this thesis is to shed more light in the FX market microstructure by examining the determinants of bid-ask spread for three currencies pairs, the US dollar/Japanese yen, the British pound/US dollar and the Euro/US dollar in different time zones. I examine the commonality in liquidity with the elaboration of FX market microstructure variables in financial centres across the world (New York, London, Tokyo) based on the quotes of three exchange rate currency pairs over a ten-year period. I use GARCH (1,1) specifications, ICSS algorithm, and vector autoregression analysis to examine the effect of trading activity, exchange rate volatility and inventory holding costs on both quoted and relative spreads. ICSS algorithm results show that intraday spread series are much less volatile compared to the intraday exchange rate series as the number of change points obtained from ICSS algorithm is considerably lower. GARCH (1,1) estimation results of daily and intraday bid-ask spreads, show that the explanatory variables work better when I use higher frequency data (intraday results) however, their explanatory power is significantly lower compared to the results based on the daily sample. This suggests that although daily spreads and intraday spreads have some common determinants there are other factors that determine the behaviour of spreads at high frequencies. VAR results show that there are some differences in the behaviour of the variables at high frequencies compared to the results from the daily sample. A shock in the number of quote revisions has more effect on the spread when short term trading intervals are considered (intra-day) compared to its own shocks. When longer trading intervals are considered (daily) then the shocks in the spread have more effect on the future spread. In other words, trading activity is more informative about the future spread when intra-day trading is considered while past spread is more informative about the future spread when daily trading is considered

Essays on volatility and liquidity in financial markets

The price formation of financial assets is a complex process. It extends beyond the standard economic paradigm of supply and demand to the understanding of the dynamic behavior of price variability, the price impact of information, and the implications of trading behavior of market participants on prices. In this thesis, I study aggregate market and individual assets volatility, liquidity dimensions, and causes of mispricing for US equities over a recent sample period. How volatility forecasts are modeled, what determines intradaily jumps and causes changes in intradaily volatility and what drives the premium of traded equity indexes? Are they induced, for example, by the information content of lagged volatility and return parameters or by macroeconomic news, changes in liquidity and volatility? Besides satisfying our intellectual curiosity, answers to these questions are of direct importance to investors developing trading strategies, policy makers evaluating macroeconomic policies and to arbitrageurs exploiting mispricing in exchange-traded funds. Results show that the leverage effect and lagged absolute returns improve forecasts of continuous components of daily realized volatility as well as jumps. Implied volatility does not subsume the information content of lagged returns in forecasting realized volatility and its components. The reported results are linked to the heterogeneous market hypothesis and demonstrate the validity of extending the hypothesis to returns. Depth shocks, signed order flow, the number of trades, and resiliency are the most important determinants of intradaily volatility. In contrast, spread shock and resiliency are predictive of signed intradaily jumps. There are fewer macroeconomic news announcement surprises that cause extreme price movements or jumps than those that elevate intradaily volatility. Finally, the premium of exchange-traded funds is significantly associated with momentum in net asset value and a number of liquidity parameters including the spread, traded volume, and illiquidity. The mispricing of industry exchange traded funds suggest that limits to arbitrage are driven by potential illiquidity.

The development of fast bowling experts in Australian cricket

In this paper, we highlight key concepts from dynamical systems theory and complexity sciences to exemplify constraints on talent development in a sample of elite cricketers. Eleven international fast bowlers who cumulatively had taken more than 2,400 test wickets in over 600 international test matches were interviewed using an in-depth, open-ended, and semi-structured approach. Qualitative data were analysed to identify key components in fast bowling expertise development. Results revealed that, contrary to traditional perspectives, the athletes progressed through unique, nonlinear trajectories of development, which appears to be a commonality in the experts' developmental pathways. During development, individual experts encountered unique constraints on the acquisition of expertise in cricket fast bowling, resulting in unique performance adaptations. Specifically, data illustrated experts' ability to continually adapt behaviours under multifaceted ecological constraints.

Palliative care in undergraduate curricula : Results of a national scoping study

Background: We wished to explore the ways in which palliative care is included in undergraduate health services curricula in Australia and the barriers to, and opportunities for, such inclusion. Methods: A scoping study of current Australian undergraduate health care curricula, using an email survey of deans (or equivalent) of health faculties was designed utilising all Australian undergraduate courses that prepare medicine, nursing and allied health professionals for entry to practice. Participants were deans or faculty heads from health and related faculties which offered courses relevant to the project, identified from the Australian Government Department of Education, Science and Training website. Sixty-two deans (or equivalent) from 41 Australian universities were surveyed. A total of 42 completed surveys were returned (68% of deans). Main outcome measures were total hours, content, teaching and learning strategies and resources for palliative care education in undergraduate curricula; perceived gaps, barriers, and opportunities to support the inclusion of palliative care education in undergraduate curricula. Results: Forty-five percent of respondents reported the content of current curricula reflected the palliative approach to a large degree. More than half of the respondents reported that their course had palliative care components integrated to a minor degree and a further third to a moderate degree. The number of hours dedicated to palliative care and teaching and learning strategies varied across all respondents, although there was a high degree of commonality in content areas taught. Conclusion: Current Australian undergraduate courses vary widely in the nature and extent to which they provide education in palliative care.

The importance of group-fit in new director selection

Purpose Director selection is an important yet under-researched topic. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to extant literature by gaining a greater understanding into how and why new board members are recruited. Design/methodology/approach This exploratory study uses in-depth interviews with Australian non-executive directors to identify what selection criteria are deemed most important when selecting new director candidates and how selection practices vary between organisations. Findings The findings indicate that appointments to the board are based on two key attributes: first, the candidates’ ability to contribute complementary skills and second, the candidates’ ability to work well with the existing board. Despite commonality in these broad criteria, board selection approaches vary considerably between organisations. As a result, some boards do not adequately assess both criteria when appointing a new director hence increasing the chance of a mis-fit between the position and the appointed director. Research limitations/implications The study highlights the importance of both individual technical capabilities and social compatibility in director selections. The authors introduce a new perspective through which future research may consider director selection: fit. Originality/value The in-depth analysis of the director selection process highlights some less obvious and more nuanced issues surrounding directors’ appointment to the board. Recurrent patterns indicate the need for both technical and social considerations. Hence the study is a first step in synthesising the current literature and illustrates the need for a multi-theoretical approach in future director selection research.

Report on Marine Mammal Unusual Mortality Event UMESE0501Sp: Multispecies Mass Stranding of Pilot Whales (Globicephala macrorhynchus), Minke Whale (Balaenoptera acutorostrata), and Dwarf Sperm Whales (Kogia sima) in North Carolina on 15-16 January 2005

On 15-16 January 2005, three offshore species of cetaceans (33 short-finned pilot whales, Globicephala macrorhynchus, one minke whale, Balaenoptera acutorostrata, and two dwarf sperm whales, Kogia sima) stranded alive on the beaches of North Carolina. The pilot whales stranded near Oregon Inlet, the minke whale in northern North Carolina, and the dwarf sperm whales near Cape Hatteras. Live strandings of three species in one weekend was unique in North Carolina and qualified as an Unusual Mortality Event. Gross necropsies were conducted on 16-17 January 2005 on 27 pilot whales, two dwarf sperm whales, and the minke whale. Samples were collected for clinical pathology, parasitology, gross pathology, histopathology, microbiology and serology. There was variation in the number of animals sampled for each collection type, however, due to carcasses washing off the beach or degradation in carcass condition during the course of the response. Comprehensive histologic examination was conducted on 16 pilot whales, both dwarf sperm whales, and the minke whale. Limited organ or only head tissue suites were obtained from nine pilot whales. Histologic examination of tissues began in February 2005 and concluded in December 2005 when final sampling was concluded. Neither the pilot whales nor dwarf sperm whales were emaciated although none had recently ingested prey in their stomachs. The minke whale was emaciated; it was likely a dependent calf that became separated from the female. Most serum biochemistry abnormalities appear to have resulted from the stranding and indicated deteriorating condition from being on land for an extended period. Three pilot whales had clinical evidence of pre-existing systemic inflammation, which was supported by histopathologic findings. Although gross and histologic lesions involving all organ systems were noted, consistent lesions were not observed across species. Verminous pterygoid sinusitis and healed fishery interactions were seen in pilot whales but neither of these changes were causes of debilitation or death. In three pilot whales and one dwarf sperm whale there was evidence of clinically significant disease in postcranial tissues which led to chronic debilitation. Cardiovascular disease was present in one pilot whale and one dwarf sperm whale; musculoskeletal disease and intra-abdominal granulomas were present in two pilot whales. These lesions were possible, but not definitive, causal factors in the stranding. Remaining lesions were incidental or post-stranding. The minke whale and three of five tested pilot whales had positive morbillivirus titers (≥1:8 with one at >1:256), but there was no histologic evidence of active viral infection. Parasites (nematodes, cestodes, and trematodes) were collected from 26 pilot whales and two dwarf sperm whales. Sites of collection included stomach, nasal/pterygoid, peribullar sinuses, blubber, and abdominal cavity. Parasite species, locations and loads were within normal limits for free-ranging cetaceans and were not considered causative for the stranding event. Gas emboli lesions which were considered consistent with or diagnostic of sonarassociated strandings of beaked whales or small cetaceans were not found in the whales stranded as part of UMESE0501Sp. Twenty-five heads were examined with nine specific anatomic locations of interest: extramandibular fat, intramandibular fat, auditory meatus, peribullar acoustic fat, peribullar soft tissue, peribullar sinus, pterygoid sinus, melon, and brain. The common finding in all examined heads was verminous pterygoid sinusitis. Intramandibular adipose tissue reddening, typically adjacent to the vascular plexus, was observed in some individuals and could represent localized hemorrhage resulting from vascular rete rupture, hypostatic congestion, or erythrocyte rupture during the freeze/thaw cycle. One cetacean had peracute to acute subdural hemorrhage that likely occurred from thrashing on the beach post-stranding, although its occurrence prior to stranding cannot be excluded. Information provided to NMFS by the U.S. Navy indicated routine tactical mid-frequency sonar operations from individual surface vessels over relatively short durations and small spatial scales within the area and time period investigated. No marine mammals were detected by marine mammal observers on operational vessels; standard operating procedure for surface naval vessels operating mid-frequency sonar is the use of trained visual lookouts using high-powered binoculars. Sound propagation modeling using information provided to NMFS indicated that acoustic conditions in the vicinity likely depended heavily on position of the receivers (e.g., range, bearing, depth) relative to that of the sources. Absent explicit information on the location of animals meant that it was not possible to estimate received acoustic exposures from active sonar transmissions. Nonetheless, the event was associated in time and space with naval activity using mid-frequency active sonar. It also had a number of features in common (e.g., the “atypical” distribution of strandings involving multiple offshore species, all stranding alive, and without evidence of common infectious or other disease process) with other sonar-related cetacean mass stranding events. Given that this event was the only stranding of offshore species to occur within a 2-3 day period in the region on record (i.e., a very rare event), and given the occurrence of the event simultaneously in time and space with a naval exercise using active sonar, the association between the naval sonar activity and the location and timing of the event could be a causal rather than a coincidental relationship. However, evidence supporting a definitive association is lacking, and, in particular, there are differences in operational/environmental characteristics between this event and previous events where sonar has apparently played a role in marine mammal strandings. This does not preclude behavorial avoidance of noise exposure. No harmful algal blooms were present along the Atlantic coast south of the Chesapeake Bay during the months prior to the event. Environmental conditions, including strong winds, changes in upwelling- to downwelling-favorable conditions, and gently sloping bathymetry, were consistent with conditions which have been correlated with other mass strandings. In summary, we did not find commonality in gross and histologic lesions that would indicate a single cause for this stranding event. Three pilot whales and one dwarf sperm whale had debilitating conditions identified that could have contributed to stranding, one pilot whale had a debilitating condition (subdural hemorrhage) that could have been present prior to or resulting from stranding. While the pilot and dwarf sperm whale strandings may have had a common cause, the minke whale stranding was probably just coincidental. On the basis of examination of physical evidence in the affected whales, however, we cannot definitively conclude that there was or was not a causal link between anthropogenic sonar activity or environmental conditions (or a combination of these factors) and the strandings. Overall, the cause of UMESE0501Sp in North Carolina is not and likely will not be definitively known. (PDF contains 240 pages)

A study on the cost sharing model for supply lead time reduction with component commonality

This paper studies a two-level supply chain consisting of components supplier and product assembly manufacturer, while the manufacturer shares the investment on shortening supply lead time. The objective of this research is to investigate the benefits of cost sharing strategy and adopting component commonality. The result of numerical analysis demonstrates that using component commonality can help reduce the total cost, especially when the manufacture shares a higher fraction of the cost of investment in shortening supply lead time.

Time-Varying Liquidity and Momentum Profits

A basic intuition is that arbitrage is easier when markets are most liquid. Surprisingly, we find that momentum profits are markedly larger in liquid market states. This finding is not explained by variation in liquidity risk, time-varying exposure to risk factors, or changes in macroeconomic condition, cross-sectional return dispersion, and investor sentiment. The predictive performance of aggregate market illiquidity for momentum profits uniformly exceed that of market return and market volatility states. While momentum strategies are unconditionally unprofitable in US, Japan, and Eurozone countries in the last decade, they are substantial following liquid market states.

Stock market reactions to changes in the FTSE SmallCap and S&P/TSX SmallCap indices

Stocks added to (deleted from) the Russell 2000 and the S&P 600 indexes experience positive (negative) abnormal returns following the announcement. However, researchers disagree on whether these abnormal returns are permanent or temporary and offer competing explanations. I address this controversy by examining market reactions for firms that are added to or deleted from the FTSE Small Cap index (the main testing sample) and the S&P/TSX SmallCap index (the comparison sample). For the main testing sample, all stocks except pure additions, experience a permanent price change that is accompanied by a permanent change in liquidity. However, for the comparison sample, abnormal returns over the announcement period fully reverted within 30 days. In further examination of stock liquidity for the main testing sample, sample stocks experience permanent change in liquidity. Taken together, the observed results support the price pressure and liquidity hypotheses.

Market reactions to changes in the Nasdaq-100 Index membership

We examine stock market reactions around the Nasdaq-100 Index reconstitutions. We find a symmetric and transitory price response accompanied by a significant increase in trading volume on the effective date. Firms added to the Nasdaq-100 Index experience significant increases in institutional ownership, the number of market makers, and the number of shareholders. In contrast, firms removed from the index show significant decreases in the number of institutional shareholders. Additions to the Nasdaq-100 Index also show significant increases in four liquidity measures, whereas deletions demonstrate significant decreases in two liquidity measures. These changes in liquidity are related to the abnormal return on the announcement day. Taken together, the results suggest support for the price pressure, liquidity, and investor awareness hypotheses.

Liquidity traps, capital flows

This paper explores the role of capital flows and exchange rate dynamics in shaping the global economy's adjustment in a liquidity trap. Using a multi-country model with nominal rigidities, we shed light on the global adjustment since the Great Recession, a period where many advanced economies were pushed to the zero bound on interest rates. We establish three main results: (i) When the North hits the zero bound, downstream capital flows alleviate the recession by reallocating demand to the South and switching expenditure toward North goods. (ii) A free capital flow regime falls short of supporting efficient demand and expenditure reallocations and induces too little downstream (upstream) flows during (after) the liquidity trap. (iii) When it comes to capital flow management, individual countries' incentives to manage their terms of trade conflict with aggregate demand stabilization and global efficiency. This underscores the importance of international policy coordination in liquidity trap episodes.

Back from beyond the bid-ask spread: perspectives on liquidity

Research into the topic of liquidity has greatly benefited from the availability of data. Although bid-ask spreads were inaccessible to researchers, Roll (1984) provided a conceptual model that estimated the effective bid-ask prices from regular time series data, recorded on a daily or longer interval. Later data availability improved and researchers were able to address questions regarding the factors that influenced the spreads and the relationship between spreads and risk, return and liquidity. More recently transaction data have been used to measure the effective spread and researchers have been able to refine the concepts of liquidity to include the impact of transactions on price movements (Clayton and McKinnon, 2000) on a trade-by-trade analysis. This paper aims to use techniques that combine elements from all three approaches and, by studying US data over a relatively long time period, to throw light on earlier research as well as to reveal the changes in liquidity over the period controlling for extraneous factors such as market, age and size of REIT. It also reveals some comparable results for the UK market over the same period.