How to avoid Copenhagen : An experimental economic approach to climate negotiations

This study got its origin in the failed climate negotiations in the Copenhagen 2009 summit. By conducting a public good game, with participants from China and Sweden, my study indicates that previous studies on public good games can predict the outcome of the game to a quit large extent even though most of my statistical tests came out statistically insignificant. My study also indicates that by framing the game as climate negotiations there were no statistical significant difference on the level of contributions in comparison to the unframed versions of the game. The awareness of the issues with emissions, global warming and other environmental problems are pretty high but even so when push comes to shove gains in the short run are prioritized to gains in the long run. There are however hypothetical willingness to come to term with the environmental issues. The results of the study indicate that the outcome of the Copenhagen summit can be avoidable but would need additional experiments made on cultural differences and behavior.

EU Performance in the International Climate Negotiations in 2013: Scope for Improvement. IES Policy Brief Issue 2014/01/January 2014

Summary. The European Union (EU) has long been an important player and even a leader in the international cooperation on climate change. In 2013, preparations for a new global climate agreement in 2015 moved centre stage in the international negotiations. This policy brief assesses the EU’s performance in 2013 culminating in the Warsaw conference in November 2013. We find that the EU was actively engaged in the negotiations and pursued partially ambitious/progressive policy objectives, which it was partly successful in realising. The policy brief argues that international EU leadership for a 2015 agreement requires (1) building an international leadership alliance including the EU and other progressive countries and (2) serious homework by the EU to advance domestic climate mitigation efforts both by 2020 and 2030, and to enhance its position on climate finance.

An Experimental Investigation into ‘Pledge and Review’ in Climate Negotiations

A novelty of the new Paris Agreement is the inclusion of a process for assessment and review of countries’ nationally determined pledges and contributions. The intent is to reveal whether similar countries are making comparable pledges, whether the totality of such pledges will achieve the global goal, and whether, over the coming years, the contributions actually made by countries will equal or exceed their pledges. The intent is also to provide an opportunity for countries to express their approval, or disapproval, of the pledges and contributions made by individual countries. Here we report the results of a lab experiment on the effects of such a process in a game in which players choose a group target, declare their individual pledges, and then make voluntary contributions to supply a public good. Our results show that a review process is more likely to affect targets and pledges than actual contributions. Even when a review process increases average contributions, the effect is relatively small. As the window for achieving the 2 °C goal will close soon, our results suggest that, rather than merely implement the Paris Agreement, negotiators should begin now to develop complementary approaches to limiting emissions, including the adoption of agreements that are designed differently than the one adopted in Paris.

The Arduous Process of Climate Change Negotiations: How Science Can Facilitate the Desired Outcome

Effective interaction between climate science and policy is important for moving climate negotiations forward to reach an ambitious global climate change deal. Lack of progress in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations during recent years is a good reason for taking a closer look at the process of climate science–policy interaction to identify and eliminate existing shortcomings hindering climate policymaking. This paper examines the current state of climate science–policy interaction and suggests ways to integrate scientific input into the UNFCCC process more effectively. Suggestions relate to improvement in institutional structures, processes and procedures of the UNFCCC and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), quality of scientific input, credibility of scientific message and public awareness of climate change.

Climate change and global responsibility - the role of energy consumption, GDP and CO2 emissions

Climate change is one of the biggest challenges faced by this generation. Despite being the single most important environmental challenge facing the planet and despite over two decades of international climate negotiations, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue to rise. By the middle of this century, GHGs must be reduced by as much as 40-70% if dangerous climate change is to be avoided. In the Kyoto Protocol no quantitative emission limitation and reduction commitments were placed on the developing countries. For the planning of the future commitments period and possible participation of developing countries, information of the functioning of the energy systems, CO2 emissions development in different sectors, energy use and technological development in developing countries is essential. In addition to the per capita emissions, the efficiency of the energy system in relation to GHG emissions is crucial for the decision of future long-term burden sharing between countries. Country’s future development of CO2 emissions can be defined by the estimated CO2 intensity of the future and the estimated GDP growth. The changes in CO2 intensity depend on several factors, but generally developed countries’ intensity has been increasing in the industrialization phase and decreasing when their economy shifts more towards the system dominated by the service sector. The level of the CO2 intensity depends by a large extent on the production structure and the energy sources that are used. Currently one of the most urgent issues regarding global climate change is to decide the future of the Kyoto Protocol. Negotiations on this topic have already been initiated, with the aim of being finalised by the 2015. This thesis provides insights into the various approaches that can be used to characterise the concept of comparable efforts for developing countries in a future international climate agreement. The thesis examines the post-Kyoto burden sharing questions for developing countries using the contraction and convergence model, which is one approach that has been proposed to allocate commitments regarding future GHG emissions mitigation. This new approach is a practical tool for the evaluation of the Kyoto climate policy process and global climate change negotiations from the perspective of the developing countries.

Doha/COP 18: gateway to a new climate change agreement. CEPS Commentary, 13 December 2012

Drawing on his recent experience in the climate negotiations in Doha as an advisor and negotiator on a wide variety of issues, Andrei Marcu offers his assessment of the progress achieved in the two weeks of intensive talks. In spite of modest results, he describes the talks as an important and necessary step in the revolution, first ignited at the Montreal negotiations in 2005, that rejected the top-down Kyoto Protocol model in favour of a bottom-up climate change regime. In his view, the decisions taken in Doha enable the start of a new negotiating process aimed at delivering a new global climate agreement.

Navigating the road from Warsaw towards a climate agreement in 2015. CEPS Commentary, 5 December 2013

The latest round of climate negotiations that took place in Warsaw (Conference of Parties, COP19) finally resulted in a decision to agree on a timeframe for the new agreement due in COP21 in Paris in 2015, and on ways to enhance the levels of ambition in pre-2020 mitigation pledges. Specifically, Warsaw produced two milestones: i) Parties were asked to communicate “intended nationally-determined contributions” by March 2015 and ii) the Ad-hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action was requested to identify before COP20 in Lima, the information that Parties will provide when putting forward their contributions. This Commentary by Noriko Fujiwara explores what the Warsaw decision means in practice and offers some preliminary ideas about what is still needed.

La alianza de estados insulares pequeños y la securitización del cambio climático en la convención marco de Naciones Unidas sobre cambio climático (1992-2012)

La presente monografía busca explicar el proceso de securitización realizado por la AOSIS del cambio climático en las COP de la CMNUCC. Esta investigación defiende que la AOSIS sí ha hecho dicho proceso a través de estrategias como el liderazgo moral y los nexos con actores no-estatales; pero dicho proceso no ha sido exitoso, dado el predominio del discurso del desarrollo sostenible en las negociaciones, el debilitamiento de la AOSIS como actor securitizador y el poco apoyo formal de las potencias emergentes y el bloque UMBRELLA. Para sustentar lo anterior, se realizará una revisión de informes científicos que demuestran que el cambio climático es una amenaza a la seguridad, y un estudio desde de la teoría de securitización de Thierry Balzacq, de los discursos dados por los estados AOSIS, de las COP y de las posiciones de algunos bloques de negociación sobre el cambio climático.

Prospects for Developing Countries

While developing countries generally shared the sentiment that they were going to suffer from the effects of climate change policy, evidence to the contrary has emerged during the short time since the Kyoto Protocol’s entry into force. Defying expectations that developing nations could only lose from climate change policy, Brazil has shown that it is actually quite possible to benefit significantly from these policies. Brazil has been proactive in developing the infrastructure to become involved in climate change negotiations, as well as using policy tools such as the CDM. Its actions have resulted in significant economic, developmental, and environmental benefits. The case of Brazil allows for some insight into how other countries with similar developmental profiles —specifically China and India—stand to benefit from climate change policy, and how these benefits will translate into policy for future climate negotiations.

As relações Brasil–Estados Unidos no governo Clinton: a intersecção entre o debate teórico e a análise de política externa nas relações internacionais

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

A política externa do presidente Lula da Silva no âmbito das mudanças climáticas (2003-2009)

Pós-graduação em Relações Internacionais (UNESP - UNICAMP - PUC-SP) - FFC

O clima em sua regulamentação político-econômica: o acordo de Copenhague - COP 15

We know that the Earth goes through natural cycles that influence its climate and the development of their societies. In recent decades, climate changes and nature began to call world attention to the unbridled exploitation that was carried by the current economic system, causing unrest among scientific, social, political and economic world. The theory that man causes a warming in global temperatures by the release of greenhouse gases made the headlines of major newspapers in the world. From there, it was only a matter of time before environmental concerns became ownership of capital by its excessive appropriation. The fear of nuclear threat by the bombs of Hiroshima and Nagasaki left in fanfare the world, which together with the devastating impact of the exploitation of man and nature gave birth to the Environmental Revolution, a way of trying to change the development patterns of the time and behavior of the population. However, based on the historical form of capitalist domination, this was another measure that was apossada the economic system being transformed into economic value and political exchange. The origin of the conventions, meetings, conferences, parliaments set up to discuss environmental issues, eventually became forums of political and economic talks focused on environmental governance, valuing an asset that is public and everyone. Environmental and climate issue now has a value, thus turning the agenda on the agenda of the United Nations (UN) for its political and economic regulation in the form of global agreement. Given the need for understanding the climate issue, was born the Conference of the Parties (COPs), a regulatory body for climate negotiations, surrounded interests, complexities, conflicts and disagreements between the parties countries, which becomes clear when we analyze their agreements...

O clima em sua regulamentação político-econômica: o acordo de Copenhague - COP 15

We know that the Earth goes through natural cycles that influence its climate and the development of their societies. In recent decades, climate changes and nature began to call world attention to the unbridled exploitation that was carried by the current economic system, causing unrest among scientific, social, political and economic world. The theory that man causes a warming in global temperatures by the release of greenhouse gases made the headlines of major newspapers in the world. From there, it was only a matter of time before environmental concerns became ownership of capital by its excessive appropriation. The fear of nuclear threat by the bombs of Hiroshima and Nagasaki left in fanfare the world, which together with the devastating impact of the exploitation of man and nature gave birth to the Environmental Revolution, a way of trying to change the development patterns of the time and behavior of the population. However, based on the historical form of capitalist domination, this was another measure that was apossada the economic system being transformed into economic value and political exchange. The origin of the conventions, meetings, conferences, parliaments set up to discuss environmental issues, eventually became forums of political and economic talks focused on environmental governance, valuing an asset that is public and everyone. Environmental and climate issue now has a value, thus turning the agenda on the agenda of the United Nations (UN) for its political and economic regulation in the form of global agreement. Given the need for understanding the climate issue, was born the Conference of the Parties (COPs), a regulatory body for climate negotiations, surrounded interests, complexities, conflicts and disagreements between the parties countries, which becomes clear when we analyze their agreements...

Experiments on Pro-Sociality and Environmental Issues

The thesis comprises three essays that use experimental methods, one about other-regarding motivations in economic behavior and the others on pro-social behavior in two environmental economics problems. The first chapter studies how the expectations of the others and the concern to maintain a balance between effort exerted and rewards obtained interact in shaping the behavior in a modified dictator game. We find that dictators condition their choices on recipients' expectations only when there is a high probability that the the recipient will not be compensated for her effort. Otherwise, dictators tend to balance the efforts and rewards of the recipients, irrespective of the recipients' expectations. In the second chapter, I investigate the problem of local opposition to large public projects (e.g. landfills, incinerators, etc.). In particular, the experiment shows how the uncertainty about the project's quality makes the community living in the host site skeptical about the project. I also test whether side-transfers and costly information disclosure can help to increase the efficiency. Both tools succesfully make the host more willing to accept the project, but they lead to the realization of different types of projects. The last chapter is an experiment on climate negotiations. To avoid the global warming, countries are called to cooperate in the abatement of their emissions. We study whether the dynamic aspect of the climate change makes cooperation across countries behaviorally more difficult. We also consider inequality across countries as a possible factor that hinders international cooperation.