Modeling the optical constants of solids using acceptance-probability-controlled simulated annealing with an adaptive move generation procedure

The acceptance-probability-controlled simulated annealing with an adaptive move generation procedure, an optimization technique derived from the simulated annealing algorithm, is presented. The adaptive move generation procedure was compared against the random move generation procedure on seven multiminima test functions, as well as on the synthetic data, resembling the optical constants of a metal. In all cases the algorithm proved to have faster convergence and superior escaping from local minima. This algorithm was then applied to fit the model dielectric function to data for platinum and aluminum.

Recyclage des candidats dans l'algorithme Metropolis à essais multiples

Les méthodes de Monte Carlo par chaînes de Markov (MCCM) sont des méthodes servant à échantillonner à partir de distributions de probabilité. Ces techniques se basent sur le parcours de chaînes de Markov ayant pour lois stationnaires les distributions à échantillonner. Étant donné leur facilité d’application, elles constituent une des approches les plus utilisées dans la communauté statistique, et tout particulièrement en analyse bayésienne. Ce sont des outils très populaires pour l’échantillonnage de lois de probabilité complexes et/ou en grandes dimensions. Depuis l’apparition de la première méthode MCCM en 1953 (la méthode de Metropolis, voir [10]), l’intérêt pour ces méthodes, ainsi que l’éventail d’algorithmes disponibles ne cessent de s’accroître d’une année à l’autre. Bien que l’algorithme Metropolis-Hastings (voir [8]) puisse être considéré comme l’un des algorithmes de Monte Carlo par chaînes de Markov les plus généraux, il est aussi l’un des plus simples à comprendre et à expliquer, ce qui en fait un algorithme idéal pour débuter. Il a été sujet de développement par plusieurs chercheurs. L’algorithme Metropolis à essais multiples (MTM), introduit dans la littérature statistique par [9], est considéré comme un développement intéressant dans ce domaine, mais malheureusement son implémentation est très coûteuse (en termes de temps). Récemment, un nouvel algorithme a été développé par [1]. Il s’agit de l’algorithme Metropolis à essais multiples revisité (MTM revisité), qui définit la méthode MTM standard mentionnée précédemment dans le cadre de l’algorithme Metropolis-Hastings sur un espace étendu. L’objectif de ce travail est, en premier lieu, de présenter les méthodes MCCM, et par la suite d’étudier et d’analyser les algorithmes Metropolis-Hastings ainsi que le MTM standard afin de permettre aux lecteurs une meilleure compréhension de l’implémentation de ces méthodes. Un deuxième objectif est d’étudier les perspectives ainsi que les inconvénients de l’algorithme MTM revisité afin de voir s’il répond aux attentes de la communauté statistique. Enfin, nous tentons de combattre le problème de sédentarité de l’algorithme MTM revisité, ce qui donne lieu à un tout nouvel algorithme. Ce nouvel algorithme performe bien lorsque le nombre de candidats générés à chaque itérations est petit, mais sa performance se dégrade à mesure que ce nombre de candidats croît.

Essays on Bayesian Inference for Social Networks

This thesis presents Bayesian solutions to inference problems for three types of social network data structures: a single observation of a social network, repeated observations on the same social network, and repeated observations on a social network developing through time. A social network is conceived as being a structure consisting of actors and their social interaction with each other. A common conceptualisation of social networks is to let the actors be represented by nodes in a graph with edges between pairs of nodes that are relationally tied to each other according to some definition. Statistical analysis of social networks is to a large extent concerned with modelling of these relational ties, which lends itself to empirical evaluation. The first paper deals with a family of statistical models for social networks called exponential random graphs that takes various structural features of the network into account. In general, the likelihood functions of exponential random graphs are only known up to a constant of proportionality. A procedure for performing Bayesian inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods is presented. The algorithm consists of two basic steps, one in which an ordinary Metropolis-Hastings up-dating step is used, and another in which an importance sampling scheme is used to calculate the acceptance probability of the Metropolis-Hastings step. In paper number two a method for modelling reports given by actors (or other informants) on their social interaction with others is investigated in a Bayesian framework. The model contains two basic ingredients: the unknown network structure and functions that link this unknown network structure to the reports given by the actors. These functions take the form of probit link functions. An intrinsic problem is that the model is not identified, meaning that there are combinations of values on the unknown structure and the parameters in the probit link functions that are observationally equivalent. Instead of using restrictions for achieving identification, it is proposed that the different observationally equivalent combinations of parameters and unknown structure be investigated a posteriori. Estimation of parameters is carried out using Gibbs sampling with a switching devise that enables transitions between posterior modal regions. The main goal of the procedures is to provide tools for comparisons of different model specifications. Papers 3 and 4, propose Bayesian methods for longitudinal social networks. The premise of the models investigated is that overall change in social networks occurs as a consequence of sequences of incremental changes. Models for the evolution of social networks using continuos-time Markov chains are meant to capture these dynamics. Paper 3 presents an MCMC algorithm for exploring the posteriors of parameters for such Markov chains. More specifically, the unobserved evolution of the network in-between observations is explicitly modelled thereby avoiding the need to deal with explicit formulas for the transition probabilities. This enables likelihood based parameter inference in a wider class of network evolution models than has been available before. Paper 4 builds on the proposed inference procedure of Paper 3 and demonstrates how to perform model selection for a class of network evolution models.

One Step Forward: Contrasting The Effects Of Toe Clipping And Pit Tagging On Frog Survival And Recapture Probability.

Amphibians have been declining worldwide and the comprehension of the threats that they face could be improved by using mark-recapture models to estimate vital rates of natural populations. Recently, the consequences of marking amphibians have been under discussion and the effects of toe clipping on survival are debatable, although it is still the most common technique for individually identifying amphibians. The passive integrated transponder (PIT tag) is an alternative technique, but comparisons among marking techniques in free-ranging populations are still lacking. We compared these two marking techniques using mark-recapture models to estimate apparent survival and recapture probability of a neotropical population of the blacksmith tree frog, Hypsiboas faber. We tested the effects of marking technique and number of toe pads removed while controlling for sex. Survival was similar among groups, although slightly decreased from individuals with one toe pad removed, to individuals with two and three toe pads removed, and finally to PIT-tagged individuals. No sex differences were detected. Recapture probability slightly increased with the number of toe pads removed and was the lowest for PIT-tagged individuals. Sex was an important predictor for recapture probability, with males being nearly five times more likely to be recaptured. Potential negative effects of both techniques may include reduced locomotion and high stress levels. We recommend the use of covariates in models to better understand the effects of marking techniques on frogs. Accounting for the effect of the technique on the results should be considered, because most techniques may reduce survival. Based on our results, but also on logistical and cost issues associated with PIT tagging, we suggest the use of toe clipping with anurans like the blacksmith tree frog.

Escala de autoaceitação para pessoas com cegueira congênita ou precoce : desenvolvimento e investigação psicométrica = Self-acceptance acale for people with congenital or early blindness : development and psychometric analysis

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Probability currents and entropy production in nonequilibrium lattice systems

The structure of probability currents is studied for the dynamical network after consecutive contraction on two-state, nonequilibrium lattice systems. This procedure allows us to investigate the transition rates between configurations on small clusters and highlights some relevant effects of lattice symmetries on the elementary transitions that are responsible for entropy production. A method is suggested to estimate the entropy production for different levels of approximations (cluster sizes) as demonstrated in the two-dimensional contact process with mutation.

Organ donation: Acceptance and refusal among users of the public health system from Brazil

The present study sought to identify the perception of a given group of users of the Brazilian Public Health System (Sistema Unico de Saude) regarding organ donation and to implement an educational policy. Structured interviews were conducted with the aim of describing the profile of donor and nondonor subjects, the importance of organ donation, and the knowledge regarding donation and brain death. One hundred subjects were interviewed: 33% of them considered themselves potential donors; 40% were donors; 13% were nondonors; and 14% were ill-informed potential donors. However, only 40% of users have already officially expressed to their families a willingness to donate. Regarding their knowledge about the propitious moment for organ donation, only 64% of them associated the donation act with brain death. Although the present results revealed that users of the Brazilian Public Health System are prone to organ donation, there actually was a high amount of refusals, which may be due to lack of information and knowledge regarding the donation-transplantation process.

Effects of refrigeration, freezing and replacement of milk fat by inulin and whey protein concentrate on texture profile and sensory acceptance of synbiotic guava mousses

The effects of refrigeration, freezing and substitution of milk fat by inulin and whey protein concentrate (WPC) on the texture and sensory features of synbiotic guava mousses supplemented with the probiotic, Lactobacillus acidophilus La-5, and the prebiotic fibre oligofructose, were studied. The frozen storage (-18 +/- 1 degrees C), followed by thawing at 4 degrees C before the analyses, and the complete replacement of the milk fat by inulin plus WPC, led to significant differences in the instrumental texture parameters of mousses (P < 0.05). Nonetheless, these changes did not affect the sensory acceptability of the products studied. The frozen storage may be employed to extend the shelf-life of synbiotic guava mousses. Additionally, to obtain a texture profile similar to the traditional product, the simultaneous addition of inulin and WPC is recommended only for the partial replacement of milk fat in refrigerated and frozen mousses, and the total proportion of both ingredients together should not exceed 2.6%. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Consumer`s evaluation of the effects of gamma irradiation and natural antioxidants on general acceptance of frozen beef burger

The effect of addition of rosemary and oregano extracts on the sensory quality of irradiated beef burger was investigated. Batches of beef burgers were prepared with 400 ppm of rosemary or oregano extract and a group prepared with 200 ppm of synthetic butyl-hydroxytoluene (BHT)/butyl-hydroxy-anisol (BHA) was used as a control. Half of each formulation was irradiated at the maximum dose allowed for frozen meat (7 kGy). Samples were kept under frozen conditions (-20 degrees C) during the whole storage period, including during irradiation. Two analyses were performed after 20 and 90 days to verify the influence of the addition of the different types of antioxidants and the effect of irradiation and storage time on the acceptance of the product. Thirty-three and thirty-four untrained panelists were invited to participate in the first and second test, respectively. A structured hedonic scale ranging from 1 to 9 points was used in both analyses. BHT/BHA formulation obtained the highest score (6.73) and regarding the natural antioxidants, oregano received better acceptance (6.36). Irradiated samples formulated with oregano received a lower score, 6.03 in the first test and 5.06 in the second one, compared to the non-irradiated sample (6.36 and 5.79). In the second test (90 days), the sample formulated with BHT/BHA and which was irradiated received a higher score (6.59) when compared to the non-irradiated one (5.85). In both tests, the irradiated samples formulated with rosemary extract obtained a better score compared to the non-irradiated one, the scores being 5.00-3.82 and 5.00-3.76 in the first and second test, respectively. Our results allowed us to conclude that the natural antioxidants, rosemary and oregano extracts, present a good alternative for replacing synthetic additives in food industries, and that the irradiation process, in some cases, may help to enhance the sensory quality of food. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

LACTOBACILLUS ACIDOPHILUS AND BIFIDOBACTERIUM SP IN CO-CULTURE IMPROVE SENSORY ACCEPTANCE OF POTENTIALLY PROBIOTIC PETIT-SUISSE CHEESE

Sensory acceptance of four trials of probiotic petit-suisse cheese was investigated. Cheeses were prepared using Streptococcus thermophilus TA 040 as starter not supplemented with any probiotic culture (T1-control), Lactobacillus acidophilus La-5 (T2), Bifidobacterium animalis subsp. lactis BL04 (T3) and L. acidophilus + B. animalis subsp. lactis (T4). Sensory acceptance tests were performed after 7 and 14 days of storage at 4 +/- 1 degrees C, using a 9-point hedonic scale to evaluate flavour, texture and overall acceptability. The population of La-5 and BL04 remained at 7.0 log CFU g(-1) and at 8.0 log CFU g(-1), respectively, during storage for up to 28 days. After 7 and 14 days of storage, cheese T4 presented the highest sensory acceptance for all attributes evaluated and differed significantly from the other cheeses (P<0.05). After 14 days of storage, cheese T3 presented the lowest acceptance and differed significantly from the other cheeses (P<0.05). The supplementation of petit-suisse cheese T4 with both La-5 and BL04 in co-culture with a starter culture resulted in a product with high probiotic populations during storage and excellent sensory acceptance. The results also showed that, when added separately, La-5 and BL04 did not affect the sensory acceptability of petit-suisse cheese.

Nestmate recognition in a stingless bee: does the similarity of chemical cues determine guard acceptance?

The ability to discriminate nestmates from non-nestmates is critical to the maintenance of the integrity of social insect colonies. Guard workers compare the chemical cues of an incoming individual with their internal template to determine whether the entrant belongs to their colony. In contrast to honeybees, Apis mellifera, stingless bees have singly mated queens and, therefore, are expected to have a higher chemical homogeneity in their colonies. We tested whether aggressive behaviour of Frieseomelitta varia guards towards nestmate and non-nestmate foragers reflects chemical similarities and dissimilarities, respectively, of cuticular hydrocarbon profiles. We also introduced individuals of Lestrimelitta limao, an obligatory robber species, to test the ability of guards to react effectively to intruders from other taxa. We verified that foraging nestmates were almost invariably accepted, while heterospecific and conspecific non-nestmates were rejected at relatively high rates. However, non-nestmate individuals with higher chemical profile similarity were likely to be accepted by guards. We conclude that guards compare the chemical cuticular blend of incoming individuals and make acceptance decisions according to the similarity of the compounds between the colonies. (c) 2007 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Expertise and the perception of kinematic and situational probability information

Two experiments were conducted on the nature of expert perception in the sport of squash. In the first experiment, ten expert and fifteen novice players attempted to predict the direction and force of squash strokes from either a film display (occluded at variable time periods before and after the opposing player had struck the ball) or a matched point-light display (containing only the basic kinematic features of the opponent's movement pattern). Experts outperformed the novices under both display conditions, and the same basic time windows that characterised expert and novice pick-up of information in the film task also persisted in the point-light task. This suggests that the experts' perceptual advantage is directly related to their superior pick-up of essential kinematic information. In the second experiment, the vision of six expert and six less skilled players was occluded by remotely triggered liquid-crystal spectacles at quasi-random intervals during simulated match play. Players were required to complete their current stroke even when the display was occluded and their prediction performance was assessed with respect to whether they moved to the correct half of the court to match the direction and depth of the opponent's stroke. Consistent with experiment 1, experts were found to be superior in their advance pick-up of both directional and depth information when the display was occluded during the opponent's hitting action. However, experts also remained better than chance, and clearly superior to less skilled players, in their prediction performance under conditions where occlusion occurred before any significant pre-contact preparatory movement by the opposing player was visible. This additional source of expert superiority is attributable to their superior attunement to the information contained in the situational probabilities and sequential dependences within their opponent's pattern of play.

Adopting turtle excluder devices in Australia and the United States: What are the differences in technology transfer, promotion, and acceptance?

Turtle excluder devices (TEDs) are being trialed on a voluntary basis in many Australian prawn (shrimp) trawl fisheries to reduce sea turtle captures. Analysis of TED introductions into shrimp trawl fisheries of the United States provided major insights into why conflicts occurred between shrimpers, conservationists, and government agencies. A conflict over the introduction and subsequent regulation of TEDs occurred because the problem and the solution were perceived differently by the various stakeholders. Attempts to negotiate and mediate the conflict broke down, resulting in litigation against the U.S. government by conservationists and shrimpers. Litigation was not an efficient resolution to the sea turtle-TED-trawl conflict but it appears that litigation was the only remaining path of resolution once the issue became polarized. We review two major Australian trawl fisheries to identify any significant differences in circumstances that may affect TED acceptance. Australian trawl fisheries are structured differently and good communication occurs between industry and researchers. TEDs are being introduced as mature technology. Furthermore, bycatch issues are of increasing concern to all stakeholders. These factors, combined with insights derived from previous conflicts concerning TEDs in the United Stares, increase the possibilities that TEDs will be introduced to Australian fishers with better acceptance.

Probability backflow for a Dirac particle

The phenomenon of probability backflow, previously quantified for a free nonrelativistic particle, is considered for a free particle obeying Dirac's equation. It is known that probability backflow can occur in the opposite direction to the momentum; that is to say, there exist positive-energy states in which the particle certainly has a positive momentum in a given direction, but for which the component of the probability flux vector in that direction is negative. It is shown thar the maximum possible amount of probability that can flow backwards, over a given time interval of duration T, depends on the dimensionless parameter epsilon = root 4h/mc(2)T, where m is the mass of the particle and c is the speed of light. At epsilon = 0, the nonrelativistic value of approximately 0.039 for this maximum is recovered. Numerical studies suggest that the maximum decreases monotonically as epsilon increases from 0, and show that it depends on the size of m, h, and T, unlike the nonrelativistic case.

The velocity of probability transport in quantum mechanics

In his study of the 'time of arrival' problem in the nonrelativistic quantum mechanics of a single particle, Allcock [1] noted that the direction of the probability flux vector is not necessarily the same as that of the mean momentum of a wave packet, even when the packet is composed entirely of plane waves with a common direction of momentum. Packets can be constructed, for example for a particle moving under a constant force, in which probability flows for a finite time in the opposite direction to the momentum. A similar phenomenon occurs for the Dirac electron. The maximum amount of probabilitiy backflow which can occur over a given time interval can be calculated in each case.