Fatores de riscos associados à leishmaniose visceral canina na área de cinturão verde de Ilha Solteira, SP

Pós-graduação em Ciência e Tecnologia Animal - FEIS

Emotional and behavioral problems in preschoolers: risk factors and assessment Issues

Tese de Doutoramento em Psicologia Aplicada.

Public-private partnership investments in dry ports – Russian logistics markets and risks

The investments have always been considered as an essential backbone and so-called ‘locomotive’ for the competitive economies. However, in various countries, the state has been put under tight budget constraints for the investments in capital intensive projects. In response to this situation, the cooperation between public and private sector has grown based on public-private mechanism. The promotion of favorable arrangement for collaboration between public and private sectors for the provision of policies, services, and infrastructure in Russia can help to address the problems of dry ports development that neither municipalities nor the private sector can solve alone. Especially, the stimulation of public-private collaboration is significant under the exposure to externalities that affect the magnitude of the risks during all phases of project realization. In these circumstances, the risk in the projects also is becoming increasingly a part of joint research and risk management practice, which is viewed as a key approach, aiming to take active actions on existing global and specific factors of uncertainties. Meanwhile, a relatively little progress has been made on the inclusion of the resilience aspects into the planning process of a dry ports construction that would instruct the capacity planner, on how to mitigate the occurrence of disruptions that may lead to million dollars of losses due to the deviation of the future cash flows from the expected financial flows on the project. The current experience shows that the existing methodological base is developed fragmentary within separate steps of supply chain risk management (SCRM) processes: risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring and control phases. The lack of the systematic approach hinders the solution of the problem of risk management processes of dry port implementation. Therefore, management of various risks during the investments phases of dry port projects still presents a considerable challenge from the practical and theoretical points of view. In this regard, the given research became a logical continuation of fundamental research, existing in the financial models and theories (e.g., capital asset pricing model and real option theory), as well as provided a complementation for the portfolio theory. The goal of the current study is in the design of methods and models for the facilitation of dry port implementation through the mechanism of public-private partnership on the national market that implies the necessity to mitigate, first and foremost, the shortage of the investments and consequences of risks. The problem of the research was formulated on the ground of the identified contradictions. They rose as a continuation of the trade-off between the opportunities that the investors can gain from the development of terminal business in Russia (i.e. dry port implementation) and risks. As a rule, the higher the investment risk, the greater should be their expected return. However, investors have a different tolerance for the risks. That is why it would be advisable to find an optimum investment. In the given study, the optimum relates to the search for the efficient portfolio, which can provide satisfaction to the investor, depending on its degree of risk aversion. There are many theories and methods in finance, concerning investment choices. Nevertheless, the appropriateness and effectiveness of particular methods should be considered with the allowance of the specifics of the investment projects. For example, the investments in dry ports imply not only the lump sum of financial inflows, but also the long-term payback periods. As a result, capital intensity and longevity of their construction determine the necessity from investors to ensure the return on investment (profitability), along with the rapid return on investment (liquidity), without precluding the fact that the stochastic nature of the project environment is hardly described by the formula-based approach. The current theoretical base for the economic appraisals of the dry port projects more often perceives net present value (NPV) as a technique superior to other decision-making criteria. For example, the portfolio theory, which considers different risk preference of an investor and structures of utility, defines net present value as a better criterion of project appraisal than discounted payback period (DPP). Meanwhile, in business practice, the DPP is more popular. Knowing that the NPV is based on the assumptions of certainty of project life, it cannot be an accurate appraisal approach alone to determine whether or not the project should be accepted for the approval in the environment that is not without of uncertainties. In order to reflect the period or the project’s useful life that is exposed to risks due to changes in political, operational, and financial factors, the second capital budgeting criterion – discounted payback period is profoundly important, particularly for the Russian environment. Those statements represent contradictions that exist in the theory and practice of the applied science. Therefore, it would be desirable to relax the assumptions of portfolio theory and regard DPP as not fewer relevant appraisal approach for the assessment of the investment and risk measure. At the same time, the rationality of the use of both project performance criteria depends on the methods and models, with the help of which these appraisal approaches are calculated in feasibility studies. The deterministic methods cannot ensure the required precision of the results, while the stochastic models guarantee the sufficient level of the accuracy and reliability of the obtained results, providing that the risks are properly identified, evaluated, and mitigated. Otherwise, the project performance indicators may not be confirmed during the phase of project realization. For instance, the economic and political instability can result in the undoing of hard-earned gains, leading to the need for the attraction of the additional finances for the project. The sources of the alternative investments, as well as supportive mitigation strategies, can be studied during the initial phases of project development. During this period, the effectiveness of the investments undertakings can also be improved by the inclusion of the various investors, e.g. Russian Railways’ enterprises and other private companies in the dry port projects. However, the evaluation of the effectiveness of the participation of different investors in the project lack the methods and models that would permit doing the particular feasibility study, foreseeing the quantitative characteristics of risks and their mitigation strategies, which can meet the tolerance of the investors to the risks. For this reason, the research proposes a combination of Monte Carlo method, discounted cash flow technique, the theory of real options, and portfolio theory via a system dynamics simulation approach. The use of this methodology allows for comprehensive risk management process of dry port development to cover all aspects of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring, and control phases. A designed system dynamics model can be recommended for the decision-makers on the dry port projects that are financed via a public-private partnership. It permits investors to make a decision appraisal based on random variables of net present value and discounted payback period, depending on different risks factors, e.g. revenue risks, land acquisition risks, traffic volume risks, construction hazards, and political risks. In this case, the statistical mean is used for the explication of the expected value of the DPP and NPV; the standard deviation is proposed as a characteristic of risks, while the elasticity coefficient is applied for rating of risks. Additionally, the risk of failure of project investments and guaranteed recoupment of capital investment can be considered with the help of the model. On the whole, the application of these modern methods of simulation creates preconditions for the controlling of the process of dry port development, i.e. making managerial changes and identifying the most stable parameters that contribute to the optimal alternative scenarios of the project realization in the uncertain environment. System dynamics model allows analyzing the interactions in the most complex mechanism of risk management process of the dry ports development and making proposals for the improvement of the effectiveness of the investments via an estimation of different risk management strategies. For the comparison and ranking of these alternatives in their order of preference to the investor, the proposed indicators of the efficiency of the investments, concerning the NPV, DPP, and coefficient of variation, can be used. Thus, rational investors, who averse to taking increased risks unless they are compensated by the commensurate increase in the expected utility of a risky prospect of dry port development, can be guided by the deduced marginal utility of investments. It is computed on the ground of the results from the system dynamics model. In conclusion, the outlined theoretical and practical implications for the management of risks, which are the key characteristics of public-private partnerships, can help analysts and planning managers in budget decision-making, substantially alleviating the effect from various risks and avoiding unnecessary cost overruns in dry port projects.

Bovine cysticercosis in slaughtered cattle as an indicator of Good Agricultural Practices (GAP) and epidemiological risk factors

This study focused on estimating the economic losses resulting from cysticercosis at beef cattle farms that supply an export slaughterhouse located in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, and to identify the epidemiological risks factors involved in the disease to ascertain if these farms adopt Good Agricultural Practices (GAP). To this, we used data recorded in 2012 by Brazil's Federal Inspection Service (SIP) on the daily occurrence of the disease, according to the farm from which the animals originated. In addition, the associated risk factors were determined based on a case-control study at 48 farms. Cysticercosis was detected in 2.26% (95% CI 2.2-2.33) of the 190,903 bovines supplied by 556 farms in the following four states: 2.92% (95% CI 2.83-3.03) in Sao Paulo, 1.81% (95% CI 1.71-1.93) in Minas Gerais, 0.71% (95% CI 0.6-0.82) in Goias and 1.11% (95% CI 0.79-1.57) in Mato Grosso do Sul, with significant differences in the epidemiological indices of these states. Cysticercosis was detected at 58.45% (95% CI 54.36-62.55) of the farms of this study, representing estimated economic losses of US$312,194.52 for the farmers. Lower prevalence of this disease were found at the farms qualified for exports to the European Union, indicating a statistically significant difference from those not qualified to export to Europe. The access of cattle to non-controlled water sources, as well as sport fishing activities near the farms, was identified as risk factors. Cysticercosis causes considerable losses in Brazil's beef supply chain, with lower prevalence appearing only at farms qualified to export to the European Union. As for the access of cattle to non-controlled water sources, this is an indication that GAP are not implemented by some farms, demonstrating the violation of international agreements by the industry and the farms. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The prevalence, health risks, and consequences of asthma among adult residents in Texas

Based on asthma prevalence data collected from the 2000 BRFSS survey, approximately 14.7 million U.S. adults had current asthma, accounting for 7.2% of the total U.S. population. In Texas alone, state data extrapolated from the 1999-2003 Texas BRFSS suggested that approximately 1 million Texas adults were reporting current asthma and approximately 11% of the adult population has been diagnosed with the illness during their lifetime. From a public health perspective, the disease is manageable. Comprehensive state-specific asthma surveillance data are necessary to identify disparities in asthma prevalence and asthma-control characteristics among subpopulations and to develop targeted public health interventions. The purpose of this study was to determine the relative importance of various risk factors of asthma and to examine the impact of asthma on health-related quality of life among adult residents of Texas. ^ The study employed a cross-sectional study of respondents in Texas. The study extracted all the variables related to asthma along with their associated demographic, socioeconomic, and quality of life variables from the 2007 BRFSS data for 17,248 adult residents of Texas aged 18 and older. Chi-square test and logistic regression using SPSS were used in various data analyses on weighted data, adjusting for the complex sample design of the BRFSS data. All chi-square analyses were carried out using SPSS's CSTABULATE command. In addition, logistic regression models were fitted using SPSS's CSLOGISTIC command. ^ Risks factors significantly associated with reporting current asthma included BMI, race/ethnicity, gender, and income. Holding all other variables constant, obese adults were almost twice as likely to report current asthma as those adults who were normal weight (odds ratio [OR], 1.78; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.25 to 2.53). Other non-Hispanic adults were significantly more likely to report current asthma than non-Hispanic Whites (OR, 2.43; 95% CI, 1.38 to 4.25), while Hispanics were significantly less likely to report current asthma than non-Hispanic Whites (OR, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.25 to 0.60), after controlling for all other variables. After adjusting for all other variables, adult females were almost twice as likely to report current asthma as males (OR, 1.97; 95% CI, 1.49 to 2.60). Adults with household income of less than $15,000 were almost twice as likely to report current asthma as those persons with an annual household income of $50,000 or more (OR, 1.98; 95% CI, 1.33 to 2.94). In regards to the association between asthma and health-related quality of life, after adjusting for age, race/ethnicity, gender, tobacco use, body mass index (BMI), exercise, education, and income, adults with current asthma compared to those without asthma were more likely to report having more than 15 days of unhealthy physical health (OR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.29 to 2.60). ^ Overall, the findings of this study provide insight and valuable information into the populations in Texas most adversely affected by asthma and health-related consequences of the disease condition. Further research could build on the findings of this study by replicating this study as closely as possible in other asthma settings, and look at the relationship for hospitalization rates, asthma severity, and mortality.^

Estudo da prevalência de sintomas de lesões músculoesqueléticas ligadas ao trabalho nos profissionais de educação de infância: educadores de infância e auxiliares de acção educativa

Mestrado em Segurança e Higiene no Trabalho.

Rotura Uterina em Mulheres com Cesariana Anterior em Prova de Trabalho de Parto

Uterine rupture during a trial of labor after previous cesarean (TOLAC) delivery is a rare, but serious complication. Several factors can increase the risk of uterine rupture, so the assessment of individual risks with adequate counseling is ne - cessary. The initial signs and symptoms are usually nonspecific, hampering timely diagnosis and prompt delivery of the fetus, necessary for optimal outcome. The purpose of this document is to review the risks factors for uterine rupture during TOLAC, as well as the current clinical value of the classically described premonitory signs and symptoms.

Les urgences: une opportunité d'accès a des interventions préventives en partenariat avec les médecins de premier recours [Preventive medicine in emergency centres: an opportunity of partnership for emergency physicians and primary care physicians].

Whereas preventive interventions for primary care physicians are now well established, the preventive interventions in emergency departments have been only partially and recently evaluated. Emergency departments probably represent however an opportunity for preventive medicine. Indeed, the population, sometimes vulnerable, consulting emergency departments, frequently presents risks factors and risks behaviours. Moreover, the concept of "teachable moment" and the studies recently performed seem to confirm this hypothesis. This article review the currently preventive interventions recommended in emergency departments and discuss the rationale to implement preventive medicine in emergency departments and the limits of this process.

Ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care patients with chest pain : a clinical prediction score

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Chest pain raises concern for the possibility of coronary heart disease. Scoring methods have been developed to identify coronary heart disease in emergency settings, but not in primary care. METHODS: Data were collected from a multicenter Swiss clinical cohort study including 672 consecutive patients with chest pain, who had visited one of 59 family practitioners' offices. Using delayed diagnosis we derived a prediction rule to rule out coronary heart disease by means of a logistic regression model. Known cardiovascular risk factors, pain characteristics, and physical signs associated with coronary heart disease were explored to develop a clinical score. Patients diagnosed with angina or acute myocardial infarction within the year following their initial visit comprised the coronary heart disease group. RESULTS: The coronary heart disease score was derived from eight variables: age, gender, duration of chest pain from 1 to 60 minutes, substernal chest pain location, pain increases with exertion, absence of tenderness point at palpation, cardiovascular risks factors, and personal history of cardiovascular disease. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was of 0.95 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.92; 0.97. From this score, 413 patients were considered as low risk for values of percentile 5 of the coronary heart disease patients. Internal validity was confirmed by bootstrapping. External validation using data from a German cohort (Marburg, n = 774) revealed a receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.72; 0.81) with a sensitivity of 85.6% and a specificity of 47.2%. CONCLUSIONS: This score, based only on history and physical examination, is a complementary tool for ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care patients complaining of chest pain.

Acute acquired toxoplasmosis: clinical-laboratorial aspects and ophthalmologic evaluation in a cohort of immunocompetent patients

Most cases of acute acquired toxoplasmosis (AAT) are oligosymptomatic and self-limited. Therefore, these infections rarely indicate treatment. Prospective studies of AAT patients are rare in the medical literature. The frequency of systemic manifestations has not been sufficiently studied. In order to search for risks factors for systemic and ocular involvement, 37 patients were submitted to a diagnostic investigative protocol. The most frequent findings were lymph node enlargement (94.6%), asthenia (86.5%), headache (70.3%), fever (67.6%) and weight loss (62.2%). Hepatomegaly and/or splenomegaly were present in 21.6% of cases (8/37). Liver transaminases were elevated in 11 patients (29.7%) and lactic dehydrogenase in 17 patients (45.9%). Anaemia was found in four patients (10.8%), leucopoenia in six patients (16.2%), lymphocytosis in 14 patients (37.8%) and thrombocytopenia in one patient (2.7%). Fundoscopic examination revealed retinochoroiditis in four patients (10.8%). No statistical association was found between any one morbidity and retinochoroiditis. Nevertheless, a significant association was found between the presence of more than eight morbidity features at evaluation and long-lasting disease. An ideal diagnostic protocol for AAT would include evidence of systemic involvement. Such a protocol could be used when planning treatment.

Faiblesse et douleurs musculaires generalisees chez une patiente de 88 ans: avez-vous pense aux medicaments [88 years old woman with acute muscular weakness and diffuse muscular pain: have you thought about the drugs?].

An 88 years old woman was admitted for muscular pain and weakness. She was under a treatment of simvastatin and was recently prescribed clarithromycin for a lung infection. The diagnosis of statin induced rhabdomyolysis by drug interaction was made. The evolution is good with eviction of the statin and aggressive hydratation. This case shows how important it is to know the risks factors and drug interactions predisposing to statin-induced myopathy.

Ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care patients with chest pain: a clinical prediction score.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Chest pain raises concern for the possibility of coronary heart disease. Scoring methods have been developed to identify coronary heart disease in emergency settings, but not in primary care. METHODS: Data were collected from a multicenter Swiss clinical cohort study including 672 consecutive patients with chest pain, who had visited one of 59 family practitioners' offices. Using delayed diagnosis we derived a prediction rule to rule out coronary heart disease by means of a logistic regression model. Known cardiovascular risk factors, pain characteristics, and physical signs associated with coronary heart disease were explored to develop a clinical score. Patients diagnosed with angina or acute myocardial infarction within the year following their initial visit comprised the coronary heart disease group. RESULTS: The coronary heart disease score was derived from eight variables: age, gender, duration of chest pain from 1 to 60 minutes, substernal chest pain location, pain increases with exertion, absence of tenderness point at palpation, cardiovascular risks factors, and personal history of cardiovascular disease. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was of 0.95 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.92; 0.97. From this score, 413 patients were considered as low risk for values of percentile 5 of the coronary heart disease patients. Internal validity was confirmed by bootstrapping. External validation using data from a German cohort (Marburg, n = 774) revealed a receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.72; 0.81) with a sensitivity of 85.6% and a specificity of 47.2%. CONCLUSIONS: This score, based only on history and physical examination, is a complementary tool for ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care patients complaining of chest pain.

Validation of a clinical prediction score for ruling out coronary heart disease in primary care patients with chest pain.

Background: A patient's chest pain raises concern for the possibility of coronary heart disease (CHD). An easy to use clinical prediction rule has been derived from the TOPIC study in Lausanne. Our objective is to validate this clinical score for ruling out CHD in primary care patients with chest pain. Methods: This secondary analysis used data collected from a oneyear follow-up cohort study attending 76 GPs in Germany. Patients attending their GP with chest pain were questioned on their age, gender, duration of chest pain (1-60 min), sternal pain location, pain increases with exertion, absence of tenderness point at palpation, cardiovascular risks factors, and personal history of cardiovascular disease. Area under the curve (ROC), sensitivity and specificity of the Lausanne CHD score were calculated for patients with full data. Results: 1190 patients were included. Full data was available for 509 patients (42.8%). Missing data was not related to having CHD (p = 0.397) or having a cardiovascular risk factor (p = 0.275). 76 (14.9%) were diagnosed with a CHD. Prevalence of CHD were respectively of 68/344 (19.8%), 2/62 (3.2%), 6/103 (5.8%) in the high, intermediate and low risk category. ROC was of 72.9 (CI95% 66.8; 78.9). Ruling out patients with low risk has a sensitivity of 92.1% (CI95% 83.0; 96.7) and a specificity of 22.4% (CI95% 18.6%; 26.7%). Conclusion: The Lausanne CHD score shows reasonably good sensitivity and can be used to rule out coronary events in patients with chest pain. Patients at risk of CHD for other rarer reasons should nevertheless also be investigated.

Traitement des dyslipidémies et atteinte hépatique [Lipid-lowering treatment and liver dysfunction].

Statins are a cornerstone of cardiovascular prevention. Their utilization is mostly well tolerated and safe: the commonly reported hepatic adverse effect is an asymptomatic, reversible and dose-related increase in liver enzyme levels occurring in case of risks factors. Statins do not worsen liver function in most patients with chronic liver diseases, including nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and hepatitis C, and might be used cautionsly. However, decompensated cirrhosis and acute liver failure are contraindications for statins. Routine hepatic biochemical test monitoring is questioned and might be performed in following situations: chronic liver diseases, alcohol consumption, drug interactions. Other causes should be screened and treatment be temporarily withheld in case of an ALT elevation > 3 times the upper limit of the norm.

Cardiologie nucléaire du 21ième siècle : nouveautés et réalités

Les maladies cardio-vasculaires demeurent une cause majeure de mortalité et morbidité dans les sociétés développées. La recherche de déterminants prédictifs d’évènements vasculaires représente toujours un enjeu d’actualité face aux coûts croissants des dépenses reliées aux soins médicaux et à l’élargissement des populations concernées, notamment face à l’occidentalisation des pays émergeants comme l’Inde, le Brésil et la Chine. La cardiologie nucléaire occupe depuis trente ans, une place essentielle dans l’arsenal des méthodes diagnostiques et pronostiques des cardiopathies. De plus, de nouvelles percées permettront de dépister d’une façon plus précoce et précise, la maladie athérosclérotique cardiaque et périphérique chez les populations atteintes ainsi qu’en prévention primaire. Nous présenterons dans cette thèse, deux approches nouvelles de la cardiologie nucléaire. La dysfonction endothéliale est considérée comme le signal pathologique le plus précoce de l’athérosclérose. Les facteurs de risques cardiovasculaires traditionnels atteignent la fonction endothéliale et peuvent initier le processus d’athérosclérose même en l’absence de lésion endothéliale physique. La quantification de la fonction endothéliale coronarienne comporte donc un intérêt certain comme biomarqueur précoce de la maladie coronarienne. La pléthysmographie isotopique, méthodologie développée lors de ce cycle d’étude, permet de quantifier la fonction endothéliale périphérique, cette dernière étant corrélée à la fonction endothéliale coronarienne. Cette méthodologie est démontrée dans le premier manuscrit (Harel et. al., Physiol Meas., 2007). L’utilisation d’un radiomarquage des érythrocytes permet la mesure du flot artériel au niveau du membre supérieur pendant la réalisation d’une hyperémie réactive locale. Cette nouvelle procédure a été validée en comparaison à la pléthysmographie par jauge de contrainte sur une cohorte de 26 patients. Elle a démontré une excellente reproductibilité (coefficient de corrélation intra-classe = 0.89). De plus, la mesure du flot artérielle pendant la réaction hyperémique corrélait avec les mesure réalisées par la méthode de référence (r=0.87). Le deuxième manuscrit expose les bases de la spectroscopie infrarouge comme méthodologie de mesure du flot artériel et quantification de la réaction hyperémique (Harel et. al., Physiol Meas., 2008). Cette étude utilisa un protocole de triples mesures simultanées à l’aide de la pléthysmographie par jauge de contrainte, radio-isotopique et par spectroscopie infrarouge. La technique par spectroscopie fut démontrée précise et reproductible quant à la mesure des flots artériels au niveau de l’avant-bras. Cette nouvelle procédure a présenté des avantages indéniables quant à la diminution d’artéfact et à sa facilité d’utilisation. Le second volet de ma thèse porte sur l’analyse du synchronisme de contraction cardiaque. En effet, plus de 30% des patients recevant une thérapie de resynchronisation ne démontre pas d’amélioration clinique. De plus, ce taux de non-réponse est encore plus élevé lors de l’utilisation de critères morphologiques de réponse à la resynchronisation (réduction du volume télésystolique). Il existe donc un besoin urgent de développer une méthodologie de mesure fiable et précise de la dynamique cardiaque. Le troisième manuscrit expose les bases d’une nouvelle technique radio-isotopique permettant la quantification de la fraction d’éjection du ventricule gauche (Harel et. al. J Nucl Cardiol., 2007). L’étude portant sur 202 patients a démontré une excellente corrélation (r=0.84) avec la méthode de référence (ventriculographie planaire). La comparaison avec le logiciel QBS (Cedar-Sinai) démontrait un écart type du biais inférieur (7.44% vs 9.36%). De plus, le biais dans la mesure ne démontrait pas de corrélation avec la magnitude du paramètre pour notre méthodologie, contrairement au logiciel alterne. Le quatrième manuscrit portait sur la quantification de l’asynchronisme intra-ventriculaire gauche (Harel et. al. J Nucl Cardiol, 2008). Un nouveau paramètre tridimensionnel (CHI: contraction homogeneity index) (médiane 73.8% ; IQ 58.7% - 84.9%) permis d’intégrer les composantes d’amplitude et du synchronisme de la contraction ventriculaire. La validation de ce paramètre fut effectuée par comparaison avec la déviation standard de l’histogramme de phase (SDΦ) (médiane 28.2º ; IQ 17.5º - 46.8º) obtenu par la ventriculographie planaire lors d’une étude portant sur 235 patients. Ces quatre manuscrits, déjà publiés dans la littérature scientifique spécialisée, résument une fraction des travaux de recherche que nous avons effectués durant les trois dernières années. Ces travaux s’inscrivent dans deux axes majeurs de développement de la cardiologie du 21ième siècle.