Finite element models of coseismic deformation due to the 2009 L'Aquila (Italy) and 2008 Wenchuan(China) earthquakes

The topic of my Ph.D. thesis is the finite element modeling of coseismic deformation imaged by DInSAR and GPS data. I developed a method to calculate synthetic Green functions with finite element models (FEMs) and then use linear inversion methods to determine the slip distribution on the fault plane. The method is applied to the 2009 L’Aquila Earthquake (Italy) and to the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (China). I focus on the influence of rheological features of the earth's crust by implementing seismic tomographic data and the influence of topography by implementing Digital Elevation Models (DEM) layers on the FEMs. Results for the L’Aquila earthquake highlight the non-negligible influence of the medium structure: homogeneous and heterogeneous models show discrepancies up to 20% in the fault slip distribution values. Furthermore, in the heterogeneous models a new area of slip appears above the hypocenter. Regarding the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, the very steep topographic relief of Longmen Shan Range is implemented in my FE model. A large number of DEM layers corresponding to East China is used to achieve the complete coverage of the FE model. My objective was to explore the influence of the topography on the retrieved coseismic slip distribution. The inversion results reveals significant differences between the flat and topographic model. Thus, the flat models frequently adopted are inappropriate to represent the earth surface topographic features and especially in the case of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.

A Decentralized Iron Cage: Do Chinese Local Officials Comply with the Central Government?

This paper contributes to the literature in nancial aid and authoritarian institutions.

For a long time, scholars are debating whether nancial aid is able to facilitate

development and governance. Though abundant evidence is provided, the answer is

still inconclusive. On the other hand, scholars investigating China argue that the

leadership uses various institutions to ensure local ocials' compliance. In this paper,

we nd that the nancial aid does not bring a positive impact and the central

government in China does not have enough monitoring capacity to force local o-

cials to comply. We study a redevelopment program established by Chinese central

government after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. By adopting a geographic regression

discontinuity combining with a dierence-in-dierences design, we show that

the redevelopment program does not signicantly develop the disaster area. On the

contrary, the evidence implies that the economy in the disaster area is worse after

receiving the aid. The results imply that local ocials do not follow the central government's

regulations and misuse the aid money for other purposes. In the future, we

expect to further investigate through which mechanism do local ocials undermine

the existing institutions.

iii

Oral Pemphigus Vulgaris After Chilean Earthquake.

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Evolution of stress deficit and changing rates of seismicity in cellular automaton models of earthquake faults

We investigate the internal dynamics of two cellular automaton models with heterogeneous strength fields and differing nearest neighbour laws. One model is a crack-like automaton, transferring ail stress from a rupture zone to the surroundings. The other automaton is a partial stress drop automaton, transferring only a fraction of the stress within a rupture zone to the surroundings. To study evolution of stress, the mean spectral density. f(k(r)) of a stress deficit held is: examined prior to, and immediately following ruptures in both models. Both models display a power-law relationship between f(k(r)) and spatial wavenumber (k(r)) of the form f(k(r)) similar tok(r)(-beta). In the crack model, the evolution of stress deficit is consistent with cyclic approach to, and retreat from a critical state in which large events occur. The approach to criticality is driven by tectonic loading. Short-range stress transfer in the model does not affect the approach to criticality of broad regions in the model. The evolution of stress deficit in the partial stress drop model is consistent with small fluctuations about a mean state of high stress, behaviour indicative of a self-organised critical system. Despite statistics similar to natural earthquakes these simplified models lack a physical basis. physically motivated models of earthquakes also display dynamical complexity similar to that of a critical point system. Studies of dynamical complexity in physical models of earthquakes may lead to advancement towards a physical theory for earthquakes.

Psychosocial sequelae of the 1989 Newcastle earthquake .2. Exposure and morbidity profiles during the first 2 years post-disaster

Background. A sample of 1089 Australian adults was selected for the longitudinal component of the Quake Impact Study, a 2-year, four-phase investigation of the psychosocial effects of the 1989 Newcastle earthquake. Of these, 845 (78%) completed a survey 6 months post-disaster as well as one or more of the three follow-up surveys. Methods. The phase I survey was used to construct dimensional indices of self-reported exposure to threat the disruption and also to classify subjects by their membership of five 'at risk' groups (the injured; the displaced; owners of damaged small businesses; helpers in threat and non-threat situations). Psychological morbidity was assessed at each phase using the 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) and the Impact of Event Scale (IES). Results. Psychological morbidity declined over time but tended to stabilize at about 12 months post-disaster for general morbidity (GHQ-12) and at about 18 months for trauma-related (IES) morbidity. Initial exposure to threat and/or disruption were significant predictors of psychological morbidity throughout the study and had superior predictive power to membership of the targeted 'at risk' groups. The degree of ongoing disruption and other life events since the earthquake were also significant predictors of morbidity. The injured reported the highest levels of distress, but there was a relative absence of morbidity among the helpers. Conclusions. Future disaster research should carefully assess the threat and disruption experiences of the survivors at the time of the event and monitor ongoing disruptions in the aftermath in order to target interventions more effectively.

Psychosocial sequelae of the 1989 Newcastle earthquake .3. Role of vulnerability factors in postdisaster morbidity

Background. This paper examines the contributions of dispositional and non-dispositional factors to post-disaster psychological morbidity. Data reported are from the 845 participants in the longitudinal component of the Quake Impact Study. Methods. The phase 1 survey was used to construct dimensional indices of threat and disruption exposure. Subsequently, a range of dispositional characteristics were measured, including neuroticism, personal hopefulness and defence style. The main morbidity measures were the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) and Impact of Event Scale (IES). Results. Dispositional characteristics were the best predictors of psychological morbidity throughout the 2 years post-disaster, contributing substantially more to the variance in morbidity (12-39%) than did initial exposure (5-12%), but the extent of their contribution was greater for general (GHQ-12) than for post-traumatic (IES) morbidity. Among the non-dispositional factors, avoidance coping contributed equally to general and post-traumatic morbidity (pr = 0.24). Life events since the earthquake (pr = 0.18), poor social relationships (pr = -0.25) and ongoing earthquake-related disruptions (pr = 0.22) also contributed to general morbidity, while only the latter contributed significantly to post-traumatic morbidity (pr = 0.15). Conclusions. Medium-term post-earthquake morbidity appears to be a function of multiple factors whose contributions vary depending on the type of morbidity experienced and include trait vulnerability, the nature and degree of initial exposure, avoidance coping and the nature and severity of subsequent events.

A synthesis of the findings from the Quake Impact Study: A two year investigation of the psychosocial sequelae of the 1989 Newcastle earthquake

This paper summarises the major findings from the Quake Impact Study (QIS), a four-phase longitudinal project that was conducted in the aftermath of the 1989 Newcastle (Australia) earthquake. A total of 3,484 subjects participated in at least one component of the QIS, comprising a stratified sample of 3,007 drawn from community electoral rolls and 477 from specially targeted supplementary samples (the injured, the displaced, the owners of damaged businesses, and the helpers). Subjects' initial earthquake experiences were rated in terms of weighted indices of exposure to threat and disruption. Psychological morbidity was measured at each phase using the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) and the Impact of Event Scale (IES). Selected findings and key conclusions are presented for each of six areas of investigation: service utilisation during the first 6 months post-disaster; patterns of earthquake experience and short-term (6-month) psychosocial outcome; earthquake exposure and medium term (2-year) psychosocial outcome; vulnerability factors and medium-term psychosocial outcome: specific community groups at increased risk (e.g., the elderly and immigrants from non-English-speaking backgrounds); the effects of stress debriefing for helpers. Threshold morbidity (i.e., likely caseness) rates are also presented for a broad range of subgroups. In addition to presenting an overview of the QIS, this paper synthesises the major findings and discusses their implications for future disaster management and research from a mental health perspective.

Stress correlation function evolution in lattice solid elasto-dynamic models of shear and fracture zones and earthquake prediction

It has been argued that power-law time-to-failure fits for cumulative Benioff strain and an evolution in size-frequency statistics in the lead-up to large earthquakes are evidence that the crust behaves as a Critical Point (CP) system. If so, intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible. However, this hypothesis has not been proven. If the crust does behave as a CP system, stress correlation lengths should grow in the lead-up to large events through the action of small to moderate ruptures and drop sharply once a large event occurs. However this evolution in stress correlation lengths cannot be observed directly. Here we show, using the lattice solid model to describe discontinuous elasto-dynamic systems subjected to shear and compression, that it is for possible correlation lengths to exhibit CP-type evolution. In the case of a granular system subjected to shear, this evolution occurs in the lead-up to the largest event and is accompanied by an increasing rate of moderate-sized events and power-law acceleration of Benioff strain release. In the case of an intact sample system subjected to compression, the evolution occurs only after a mature fracture system has developed. The results support the existence of a physical mechanism for intermediate-term earthquake forecasting and suggest this mechanism is fault-system dependent. This offers an explanation of why accelerating Benioff strain release is not observed prior to all large earthquakes. The results prove the existence of an underlying evolution in discontinuous elasto-dynamic, systems which is capable of providing a basis for forecasting catastrophic failure and earthquakes.

Load-unload response ratio and accelerating moment/energy release critical region scaling and earthquake prediction

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

Parallel simulation system for earthquake generation: Fault analysis modules and parallel coupling analysis

Solid earth simulations have recently been developed to address issues such as natural disasters, global environmental destruction and the conservation of natural resources. The simulation of solid earth phenomena involves the analysis of complex structures including strata, faults, and heterogeneous material properties. Simulation of the generation and cycle of earthquakes is particularly important, but such simulations require the analysis of complex fault dynamics. GeoFEM is a parallel finite-element analysis system intended for solid earth field phenomena problems. This paper describes recent development in the GeoFEM project for the simulation of earthquake generation and cycles.

The source of the 1722 Algarve earthquake: evidence from MCS and tsunami data

The 27 December 1722 Algarve earthquake destroyed a large area in southern Portugal generating a local tsunami that inundated the shallow areas of Tavira. It is unclear whether its source was located onshore or offshore and, in any case, what was the tectonic source responsible for the event. We analyze available historical information concerning macroseismicity and the tsunami to discuss the most probable location of the source. We also review available seismotectonic knowledge of the offshore region close to the probable epicenter, selecting a set of four candidate sources. We simulate tsunamis produced by these candidate sources assuming that the sea bottom displacement is caused by a compressive dislocation over a rectangular fault, as given by the half-space homogeneous elastic approach, and we use numerical modeling to study wave propagation and run-up. We conclude that the 27 December 1722 Tavira earthquake and tsunami was probably generated offshore, close to 37 degrees 01'N, 7 degrees 49'W.

Fractional dynamics and MDS visualization of earthquake phenomena

This paper analyses earthquake data in the perspective of dynamical systems and fractional calculus (FC). This new standpoint uses Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) as a powerful clustering and visualization tool. FC extends the concepts of integrals and derivatives to non-integer and complex orders. MDS is a technique that produces spatial or geometric representations of complex objects, such that those objects that are perceived to be similar in some sense are placed on the MDS maps forming clusters. In this study, over three million seismic occurrences, covering the period from January 1, 1904 up to March 14, 2012 are analysed. The events are characterized by their magnitude and spatiotemporal distributions and are divided into fifty groups, according to the Flinn–Engdahl (F–E) seismic regions of Earth. Several correlation indices are proposed to quantify the similarities among regions. MDS maps are proven as an intuitive and useful visual representation of the complex relationships that are present among seismic events, which may not be perceived on traditional geographic maps. Therefore, MDS constitutes a valid alternative to classic visualization tools for understanding the global behaviour of earthquakes.

Dynamic analysis of earthquake phenomena by means of pseudo phase plane

This paper analyses earthquake data in the perspective of dynamical systems and its Pseudo Phase Plane representation. The seismic data is collected from the Bulletin of the International Seismological Centre. The geological events are characterised by their magnitude and geographical location and described by means of time series of sequences of Dirac impulses. Fifty groups of data series are considered, according to the Flinn-Engdahl seismic regions of Earth. For each region, Pearson’s correlation coefficient is used to find the optimal time delay for reconstructing the Pseudo Phase Plane. The Pseudo Phase Plane plots are then analysed and characterised.

The 1531 Lisbon Earthquake: A Tsunami In the Tagus Estuary?

On 26 January 1531, a strong-magnitude earthquake heavily impacted Lisbon downtown. Immediately after the earthquake, the eyewitnesses reported large waves in the Tagus estuary, mainly north of the city and along the northern bank of the river. Descriptions include large impacts on ships anchored in the estuary and even morphological changes in the riverbed. We present a synthesis of the available information concerning both the earthquake and the water disturbance as a basis for the discussion of the probable tectonic source and the magnitude of the associated river oscillations. We hypothesize that the initial disturbance of the water can be attributed to the coseismic deformation of the estuary riverbed, and we use a nonlinear shallow water model to simulate the tsunami propagation and inundation. We show that the Vila Franca de Xira fault is the most probable source of the 1531 event. The largest inundation effects of the model correlate well with the historical descriptions: the impact is relevant in the inner Tagus estuary, but inundation in downtown Lisbon is small.