Optimal Universal and Categorical Benefits with Classification Errors and Imperfect Enforcement

We determine he optimal combination of a universal benefit, B, and categorical benefit, C, for an economy in which individuals differ in both their ability to work - modelled as an exogenous zero quantity constraint on labour supply - and, conditional on being able to work, their productivity at work. C is targeted at those unable to work, and is conditioned in two dimensions: ex-ante an individual must be unable to work and be awarded the benefit, whilst ex-post a recipient must not subsequently work. However, the ex-ante conditionality may be imperfectly enforced due to Type I (false rejection) and Type II (false award) classification errors, whilst, in addition, the ex-post conditionality may be imperfectly enforced. If there are no classification errors - and thus no enforcement issues - it is always optimal to set C>0, whilst B=0 only if the benefit budget is sufficiently small. However, when classification errors occur, B=0 only if there are no Type I errors and the benefit budget is sufficiently small, while the conditions under which C>0 depend on the enforcement of the ex-post conditionality. We consider two discrete alternatives. Under No Enforcement C>0 only if the test administering C has some discriminatory power. In addition, social welfare is decreasing in the propensity to make each type error. However, under Full Enforcement C>0 for all levels of discriminatory power. Furthermore, whilst social welfare is decreasing in the propensity to make Type I errors, there are certain conditions under which it is increasing in the propensity to make Type II errors. This implies that there may be conditions under which it would be welfare enhancing to lower the chosen eligibility threshold - support the suggestion by Goodin (1985) to "err on the side of kindness".

Can site and landscape-scale environmental attributes buffer bird populations against weather events?

Projected impacts of climate change on the populations and distributions of species pose a challenge for conservationists. In response, a number of adaptation strategies to enable species to persist in a changing climate have been proposed. Management to maximise the quality of habitat at existing sites may reduce the magnitude or frequency of climate-driven population declines. In addition large-scale management of landscapes could potentially improve the resilience of populations by facilitating inter-population movements. A reduction in the obstacles to species’ range expansion, may also allow species to track changing conditions better through shifts to new locations, either regionally or locally. However, despite a strong theoretical base, there is limited empirical evidence to support these management interventions. This makes it difficult for conservationists to decide on the most appropriate strategy for different circumstances. Here extensive data from long-term monitoring of woodland birds at individual sites are used to examine the two-way interactions between habitat and both weather and population count in the previous year. This tests the extent to which site-scale and landscape-scale habitat attributes may buffer populations against variation in winter weather (a key driver of woodland bird population size) and facilitate subsequent population growth. Our results provide some support for the prediction that landscape-scale attributes (patch isolation and area of woodland habitat) may influence the ability of some woodland bird species to withstand weather-mediated population declines. These effects were most apparent among generalist woodland species. There was also evidence that several, primarily specialist, woodland species are more likely to increase following population decline where there is more woodland at both site and landscape scales. These results provide empirical support for the concept that landscape-scale conservation efforts may make the populations of some woodland bird species more resilient to climate change. However in isolation, management is unlikely to provide a universal benefit to all species.

The effects of a universal child benefit

I study the impact of a universal child benefit on fertility and family well-being. I exploitthe unanticipated introduction of a new, sizeable, unconditional child benefit in Spain in2007, granted to all mothers giving birth on or after July 1, 2007. The regressiondiscontinuity-type design allows for a credible identification of the causal effects. I find thatthe benefit did lead to a significant increase in fertility, as intended, part of it coming froman immediate reduction in abortions. On the unintended side, I find that families whoreceived the benefit did not increase their overall expenditure or their consumption ofdirectly child-related goods and services. Instead, eligible mothers stayed out of the laborforce significantly longer after giving birth, which in turn led to their children spending lesstime in formal child care and more time with their mother during their first year of life. Ialso find that couples who received the benefit were less likely to break up the year afterhaving the child, although this effect was only short-term. Taken together, the resultssuggest that child benefits of this kind may successfully increase fertility, as well asaffecting family well-being through their impact on maternal time at home and familystability.

Effect of the Novel Thienopyridine Prasugrel Compared With Clopidogrel on Spontaneous and Procedural Myocardial Infarction in the Trial to Assess Improvement in Therapeutic Outcomes by Optimizing Platelet Inhibition With Prasugrel-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 38 An Application of the Classification System From the Universal Definition of Myocardial Infarction

Background-Prasugrel is a novel thienopyridine that reduces new or recurrent myocardial infarctions (MIs) compared with clopidogrel in patients with acute coronary syndrome undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. This effect must be balanced against an increased bleeding risk. We aimed to characterize the effect of prasugrel with respect to the type, size, and timing of MI using the universal classification of MI. Methods and Results-We studied 13 608 patients with acute coronary syndrome undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention randomized to prasugrel or clopidogrel and treated for 6 to 15 months in the Trial to Assess Improvement in Therapeutic Outcomes by Optimizing Platelet Inhibition With Prasugrel-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TRITON-TIMI 38). Each MI underwent supplemental classification as spontaneous, secondary, or sudden cardiac death (types 1, 2, and 3) or procedure related (Types 4 and 5) and examined events occurring early and after 30 days. Prasugrel significantly reduced the overall risk of MI (7.4% versus 9.7%; hazard ratio [HR], 0.76; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.67 to 0.85; P < 0.0001). This benefit was present for procedure-related MIs (4.9% versus 6.4%; HR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.66 to 0.88; P = 0.0002) and nonprocedural (type 1, 2, or 3) MIs (2.8% versus 3.7%; HR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.59 to 0.88; P = 0.0013) and consistently across MI size, including MIs with a biomarker peak >= 5 times the reference limit (HR. 0.74; 95% CI, 0.64 to 0.86; P = 0.0001). In landmark analyses starting at 30 days, patients treated with prasugrel had a lower risk of any MI (2.9% versus 3.7%; HR, 0.77; P = 0.014), including nonprocedural MI (2.3% versus 3.1%; HR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.60 to 0.92; P = 0.0069). Conclusion-Treatment with prasugrel compared with clopidogrel for up to 15 months in patients with acute coronary syndrome undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention significantly reduces the risk of MIs that are procedure related and spontaneous and those that are small and large, including new MIs occurring during maintenance therapy. (Circulation. 2009; 119: 2758-2764.)

Cost-effectiveness analysis of universal childhood vaccination against varicella in Brazil

This study conducts a cost-effectiveness analysis of a childhood universal varicella vaccination program in Brazil. An age and time-dependent dynamic model was developed to estimate the incidence of varicella for 30 years. Assuming a single-dose schedule; vaccine efficacy of 85% and coverage of 80%, the program could prevent 74,422,058 cases and 2905 deaths. It would cost R$ 3,178,396,110 and save R$ 660,076,410 to the society and R$ 365,602,305 to the healthcare system. The program is cost-effective (R$ 14,749 and R$ 16,582 per life-year saved under the societal and the healthcare system`s perspective, respectively). The program`s cost-effectiveness is highly sensitive to the vaccine price and number of doses. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The impact of eliminating a child benefit on birth timing and infant health

We study the effects of the cancellation of a sizeable child benefit in Spainon birth timing and neonatal health. In May 2010, the government announced that a2,500-euro universal "baby bonus" would stop being paid to babies born startingJanuary 1, 2011. We use detailed micro data from birth certificates from 2000 to 2011,and find that more than 2,000 families were able to anticipate the date of birth of theirbabies from (early) January 2011 to (late) December 2010 (for a total of about 10,000births a week nationally). This shifting took place in part via an increase as well as ananticipation of pre-programmed c-sections, seemingly mostly in private clinics. We findthat this shifting of birthdates resulted in a significant increase in the number ofborderline low birth weight babies, as well as a peak in neonatal mortality. The resultssuggest that announcement effects are important, and that families and healthprofessionals may face effective trade-offs when deciding on the timing (and method) ofbirth.

‘Bringing the Middle Classes Back In’ An Egalitarian Case for (Truly) Universal Public Services

Some egalitarians argue against public services that are free for all, on the grounds that free access appears to primarily benefit the middle classes. I advocate, instead, the inclusion of the middle classes in public services, arguing that only truly universal intake of public services prevents the inegalitarian effects of economic segregation. Such universal participation in public services is achieved, partly, through subsidies for, and regulation of, privately produced services.

Introducing "ecoputation": a universal systems design process

A universal systems design process is specified, tested in a case study and evaluated. It links English narratives to numbers using a categorical language framework with mathematical mappings taking the place of conjunctions and numbers. The framework is a ring of English narrative words between 1 (option) and 360 (capital); beyond 360 the ring cycles again to 1. English narratives are shown to correspond to the field of fractional numbers. The process can enable the development, presentation and communication of complex narrative policy information among communities of any scale, on a software implementation known as the "ecoputer". The information is more accessible and comprehensive than that in conventional decision support, because: (1) it is expressed in narrative language; and (2) the narratives are expressed as compounds of words within the framework. Hence option generation is made more effective than in conventional decision support processes including Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis, Life Cycle Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis.The case study is of a participatory workshop in UK bioenergy project objectives and criteria, at which attributes were elicited in environmental, economic and social systems. From the attributes, the framework was used to derive consequences at a range of levels of precision; these are compared with the project objectives and criteria as set out in the Case for Support. The design process is to be supported by a social information manipulation, storage and retrieval system for numeric and verbal narratives attached to the "ecoputer". The "ecoputer" will have an integrated verbal and numeric operating system. Novel design source code language will assist the development of narrative policy. The utility of the program, including in the transition to sustainable development and in applications at both community micro-scale and policy macro-scale, is discussed from public, stakeholder, corporate, Governmental and regulatory perspectives.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of universal childhood hepatitis A vaccination in Brazil: Regional analyses according to the endemic context

Objective: To To conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of a universal childhood hepatitis A vaccination program in Brazil. Methods: An age and time-dependent dynamic model was developed to estimate the incidence of hepatitis A for 24 years. The analysis was run separately according to the pattern of regional endemicity, one for South + Southeast (low endemicity) and one for the North + Northeast + Midwest (intermediate endemicity). The decision analysis model compared universal childhood vaccination with current program of vaccinating high risk individuals. Epidemiologic and cost estimates were based on data from a nationwide seroprevalence survey of viral hepatitis, primary data collection, National Health Information Systems and literature. The analysis was conducted from both the health system and societal perspectives. Costs are expressed in 2008 Brazilian currency (Real). Results: A universal immunization program would have a significant impact on disease epidemiology in all regions, resulting in 64% reduction in the number of cases of icteric hepatitis, 59% reduction in deaths for the disease and a 62% decrease of life years lost, in a national perspective. With a vaccine price of R$16.89 (US$7.23) per dose, vaccination against hepatitis A was a cost-saving strategy in the low and intermediate endemicity regions and in Brazil as a whole from both health system and society perspective. Results were most sensitive to the frequency of icteric hepatitis, ambulatory care and vaccine costs. Conclusions: Universal childhood vaccination program against hepatitis A could be a cost-saving strategy in all regions of Brazil. These results are useful for the Brazilian government for vaccine related decisions and for monitoring population impact if the vaccine is included in the National Immunization Program. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The universal language of Freemasonry

Freimaurer verwenden eine spezielle Art von Kommunikation: Zeichensprache, Metaphern, Symbole, Neologismen, Fachsprachen, rituelle 'Reisen' usw. Untersucht werden soll hier der masonische Anspruch, eine 'Universalsprache' zu besitzen. Das Gerüst dieser Dissertation ist ein Vergleich der ganzen Bandbreite der Freimaurerei - Orden für Männer, Frauen, Jugendliche, Farbige, sowie quasi-masonische Freizeitclubs - mit nachahmerischen Fraternitäten, wie z.B. den frühen amerikanischen Versicherungsgesellschaften und deren Kommunikationsmodellen. Die experimentelle Methode der Autorin schließt die Erforschung freimaurerischer und anderer bruderschaftlicher Quellen der letzten drei Jahrhunderte ein, sowie Besuche freimaurerischer Institutionen und Interviews mit Freimaurern. Diese Aktivitäten führten zu dem Ergebnis, daß - während die Symbole allgemein anwendbar sind - die schriftliche Freimaurersprache nicht in allen Ländern uniform ist. Die ethischen Lehren, die aus der symbolischen Freimaurerkommunikation gezogen werden sollen, haben einen internationalen Standard erreicht. So ist die Freimaurersprache seit der offiziellen Gründung der Freimaurerei im Jahre 1717 immer noch lebendig. Die rituelle Phraseologie der frühen nordamerikanischen Gewerkschaften und Versicherungsgesellschaften hingegen ist entweder verloren gegangen oder stellt nur noch pompöse Worthülsen dar, die sich um ein weltliches Thema - wie Versicherungen - ranken.

Do implicit motives and basic psychological needs interact to predict well-being and flow? Testing a universal hypothesis and a matching hypothesis

Self-Determination Theory (Deci and Ryan in Intrinsic motivation and self-determination in human behavior. Plenum Press, New York, 1985) suggests that certain experiences, such as competence, are equally beneficial to everyone’s well-being (universal hypothesis), whereas Motive Disposition Theory (McClelland in Human motivation. Scott, Foresman, Glenview, IL, 1985) predicts that some people, such as those with a high achievement motive, should benefit particularly from such experiences (matching hypothesis). Existing research on motives as moderators of the relationship between basic need satisfaction and positive outcomes supports both these seemingly inconsistent views. Focusing on the achievement motive, we sought to resolve this inconsistency by considering the specificity of the outcome variables. When predicting domain-specific well-being and flow, the achievement motive should interact with felt competence. However, when it comes to predicting general well-being and flow, felt competence should unfold its effects without being moderated by the achievement motive. Two studies confirmed these assumptions indicating that the universal and matching hypotheses are complementary rather than mutually exclusive.

The determinants of physician and pharmacist utilization and equity of access under Korean universal health insurance

This study examines the social and behavioral determinants of two types of primary care, seeing a physician or a pharmacist, for Koreans and evaluates the equity of the Korean national health insurance system. The study applies the Aday and Andersen access framework to cross-sectional data from the 1992 Korean National Health Interview Survey (N = 21,841).^ The study found that in Korea, the elderly were most likely, and children least likely, to have used physician services. Women, household heads, those in small families, and the less educated were more likely than their counterparts to use physician and pharmacist services. Health status and need were important determinants of Koreans seeing a doctor or a pharmacist. Differences in need substantially accounted for the original differences observed between subgroups. Resources associated with having insurance coverage, a regular source of care, and place of residence (rural/urban) ameliorated to some extent the subgroup differences in the use of physicians' and pharmacists' services among Koreans. They were also major independent predictors of access. Having insurance remains a particularly important predictor of who uses physician services. Among the insured, trade-offs in the use of physician and pharmacist services were found in the current system, i.e., uninsured and poor Koreans were more likely to use pharmacist services, while insured and rural Koreans were more likely to use doctor services. Among the insured, cost sharing rates are lower for physician than for pharmacist services. Self-employed persons were less likely than government and industrial workers to use physician services. An underlying expectation under universal health insurance was that the Korean health care system would be equitable. The research results, however, did not fully support this expectation.^ The policy implications of these findings are that measures are required to extend insurance coverage to the uninsured, to equalize differences in benefit packages between health plans, and to expand the availability of physicians in rural areas. Further research is also needed to understand those who do not currently have a regular source of care and why and the access barriers that may exist for selected demographic subgroups (those in large families and unmarried or divorced/widowed persons). ^

A Hard Bargain? A cost-benefit analysis of an improved cookstove program in India

In developing countries, access to modern energy for cooking and heating still remains a challenge to raising households out of poverty. About 2.5 billion people depend on solid fuels such as biomass, wood, charcoal and animal dung. The use of solid fuels has negative outcomes for health, the environment and economic development (Universal Energy Access, UNDP). In low income countries, 1.3 million deaths occur due to indoor smoke or air pollution from burning solid fuels in small, confined and unventilated kitchens or homes. In addition, pollutants such as black carbon, methane and ozone, emitted when burning inefficient fuels, are responsible for a fraction of the climate change and air pollution. There are international efforts to promote the use of clean cookstoves in developing countries but limited evidence on the economic benefits of such distribution programs. This study undertook a systematic economic evaluation of a program that distributed subsidized improved cookstoves to rural households in India. The evaluation examined the effect of different levels of subsidies on the net benefits to the household and to society. This paper answers the question, “Ex post, what are the economic benefits to various stakeholders of a program that distributed subsidized improved cookstoves?” In addressing this question, the evaluation used empirical data from India applied to a cost-benefit model to examine how subsidies affect the costs and the benefits of the biomass improved cookstove and the electric improved cookstove to different stakeholders.

Is There Justification For Universal Leukoreduction?

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Fluoride Concentrations In The Water Of Maringá, Brazil, Considering The Benefit/risk Balance Of Caries And Fluorosis.

Current Brazilian law regarding water fluoridation classification is dichotomous with respect to the risks of and benefits for oral diseases, and fluoride (F) concentrations less than 0.6 or above 0.8 mg F/L are considered outside the normal limits. Thus, the law does not consider that both caries and fluorosis are dependent on the dosage and duration of fluoride exposure because they are both chronic diseases. Therefore, this study evaluated the quality of water fluoridation in Maringá, PR, Brazil, considering a new classification for the concentration of F in water the supply, based on the anticaries benefit and risk of fluorosis (CECOL/USP, 2011). Water samples (n = 325) were collected monthly over one year from 28 distribution water networks: 20 from treatment plants and 8 from artesian wells. F concentrations were determined using a specific ion electrode. The average F concentration was 0.77 mg F/L (ppm F), ranging from 0.44 to 1.22 mg F/L. Considering all of the water samples analyzed, 83.7% of them presented from 0.55 to 0.84 mg F/L, and according to the new classification used, they would provide maximum anticaries benefit with a low risk of fluorosis. This percentage was lower (75.4%) in the water samples supplied from artesian wells than from those distributed by the treatment plant (86%). In conclusion, based on the new classification of water F concentrations, the quality of water fluoridation in Maringá is adequate and is within the range of the best balance between risk and benefit.