Type-1 error inflation in the traditional by-participant analysis to metamemory accuracy: a generalized mixed-effects model perspective

In order to examine metacognitive accuracy (i.e., the relationship between metacognitive judgment and memory performance), researchers often rely on by-participant analysis, where metacognitive accuracy (e.g., resolution, as measured by the gamma coefficient or signal detection measures) is computed for each participant and the computed values are entered into group-level statistical tests such as the t-test. In the current work, we argue that the by-participant analysis, regardless of the accuracy measurements used, would produce a substantial inflation of Type-1 error rates, when a random item effect is present. A mixed-effects model is proposed as a way to effectively address the issue, and our simulation studies examining Type-1 error rates indeed showed superior performance of mixed-effects model analysis as compared to the conventional by-participant analysis. We also present real data applications to illustrate further strengths of mixed-effects model analysis. Our findings imply that caution is needed when using the by-participant analysis, and recommend the mixed-effects model analysis.

Meta-analysis to integrate effect sizes within a paper: Possible misuse and Type-1 error inflation

In recent years an increasing number of papers have employed meta-analysis to integrate effect sizes of researchers’ own series of studies within a single paper (“internal meta-analysis”). Although this approach has the obvious advantage of obtaining narrower confidence intervals, we show that it could inadvertently inflate false-positive rates if researchers are motivated to use internal meta-analysis in order to obtain a significant overall effect. Specifically, if one decides whether to stop or continue a further replication experiment depending on the significance of the results in an internal meta-analysis, false-positive rates would increase beyond the nominal level. We conducted a set of Monte-Carlo simulations to demonstrate our argument, and provided a literature review to gauge awareness and prevalence of this issue. Furthermore, we made several recommendations when using internal meta-analysis to make a judgment on statistical significance.

Habitudes de vie et contrôle glycémique chez des adultes atteints de diabète de type 1 : des barrières envers l’activité physique au calcul des glucides.

Le diabète de type 1 (DT1) est une maladie complexe qui requiert une implication importante des patients pour contrôler leur glycémie et ainsi prévenir les complications et comorbidités. L’activité physique (AP) régulière et une attention constante pour les glucides ingérés sont des adjuvants essentiels au traitement insulinique. Nous avons démontré que le questionnaire BAPAD-1, spécifiquement développé pour des adultes atteints de DT1, est un outil valide (validité prédictive, fiabilité interne et reproductibilité) pour définir des barrières associées à l’AP. Bien que le niveau de barrières envers l’AP soit faible, la crainte de l’hypoglycémie est la barrière la plus importante chez cette population. L’adoption d’un mode de vie actif est associée à un profil corporel favorable. Les adultes, avec un DT1 et non diabétique, qui maintiennent un bon niveau d’AP, soit un ratio entre la dépense énergétique totale et celle au repos ≥ 1.7, ont une masse grasse, un indice de masse corporelle et un tour de taille significativement inférieurs à ceux d’adultes moins actifs. Le niveau d’AP peut être estimé au moyen d’un moniteur d’AP comme le SenseWear Armband™. Afin de compléter les études de validation de cet outil, nous avons évalué et démontré la reproductibilité des mesures. Toutefois, la dépense énergétique est sous-estimée durant les 10 premières minutes d’une AP d’intensité modérée sur ergocycle. L’utilisation de cet appareil est donc justifiée pour une évaluation de la dépense énergétique sur de longues périodes. Le calcul des glucides est une méthode largement utilisée pour évaluer la quantité d’insuline à injecter lors des repas. Nous avons évalué dans un contexte de vie courante, sans révision de la technique, la précision des patients pour ce calcul. L’erreur moyenne est de 15,4 ± 7,8 g par repas, soit 20,9 ± 9,7 % du contenu glucidique. L’erreur moyenne est positivement associée à de plus grandes fluctuations glycémiques mesurées via un lecteur de glucose en continu. Une révision régulière du calcul des glucides est probablement nécessaire pour permettre un meilleur contrôle glycémique. Nous avons développé et testé lors d’un essai clinique randomisé contrôlé un programme de promotion de l’AP (PEP-1). Ce programme de 12 semaines inclut une séance hebdomadaire en groupe ayant pour but d’initier l’AP, d’établir des objectifs et d’outiller les adultes atteints de DT1 quant à la gestion de la glycémie à l’AP. Bien que n’ayant pas permis d’augmenter la dépense énergétique, le programme a permis un maintien du niveau d’AP et une amélioration de la condition cardio-respiratoire et de la pression artérielle. À la fin du programme, une plus grande proportion de patients connaissait la pharmacocinétique de l’insuline et une plus grande variété de méthodes pour contrer l’hypoglycémie associée à l’AP était utilisée. En conclusion, le diabète de type 1 engendre des défis quotidiens particuliers. D’une part, le calcul des glucides est une tâche complexe et son imprécision est associée aux fluctuations glycémiques quotidiennes. D’autre part, l’adoption d’un mode de vie actif, qui est associée à un meilleur profil de composition corporelle, est limitée par la crainte des hypoglycémies. Le programme PEP-1 offre un support pour intégrer l’AP dans les habitudes de vie des adultes avec un DT1 et ainsi améliorer certains facteurs de risque cardio-vasculaire.

Computer Vision-Based Carbohydrate Estimation for Type 1 Diabetic Patients Using Smartphones

Background: Individuals with type 1 diabetes (T1D) have to count the carbohydrates (CHOs) of their meal to estimate the prandial insulin dose needed to compensate for the meal’s effect on blood glucose levels. CHO counting is very challenging but also crucial, since an error of 20 grams can substantially impair postprandial control. Method: The GoCARB system is a smartphone application designed to support T1D patients with CHO counting of nonpacked foods. In a typical scenario, the user places a reference card next to the dish and acquires 2 images with his/her smartphone. From these images, the plate is detected and the different food items on the plate are automatically segmented and recognized, while their 3D shape is reconstructed. Finally, the food volumes are calculated and the CHO content is estimated by combining the previous results and using the USDA nutritional database. Results: To evaluate the proposed system, a set of 24 multi-food dishes was used. For each dish, 3 pairs of images were taken and for each pair, the system was applied 4 times. The mean absolute percentage error in CHO estimation was 10 ± 12%, which led to a mean absolute error of 6 ± 8 CHO grams for normal-sized dishes. Conclusion: The laboratory experiments demonstrated the feasibility of the GoCARB prototype system since the error was below the initial goal of 20 grams. However, further improvements and evaluation are needed prior launching a system able to meet the inter- and intracultural eating habits.

Carbohydrate Estimation by a Mobile Phone-Based System Versus Self-Estimations of Individuals With Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus: A Comparative Study

Background: Diabetes mellitus is spreading throughout the world and diabetic individuals have been shown to often assess their food intake inaccurately; therefore, it is a matter of urgency to develop automated diet assessment tools. The recent availability of mobile phones with enhanced capabilities, together with the advances in computer vision, have permitted the development of image analysis apps for the automated assessment of meals. GoCARB is a mobile phone-based system designed to support individuals with type 1 diabetes during daily carbohydrate estimation. In a typical scenario, the user places a reference card next to the dish and acquires two images using a mobile phone. A series of computer vision modules detect the plate and automatically segment and recognize the different food items, while their 3D shape is reconstructed. Finally, the carbohydrate content is calculated by combining the volume of each food item with the nutritional information provided by the USDA Nutrient Database for Standard Reference. Objective: The main objective of this study is to assess the accuracy of the GoCARB prototype when used by individuals with type 1 diabetes and to compare it to their own performance in carbohydrate counting. In addition, the user experience and usability of the system is evaluated by questionnaires. Methods: The study was conducted at the Bern University Hospital, “Inselspital” (Bern, Switzerland) and involved 19 adult volunteers with type 1 diabetes, each participating once. Each study day, a total of six meals of broad diversity were taken from the hospital’s restaurant and presented to the participants. The food items were weighed on a standard balance and the true amount of carbohydrate was calculated from the USDA nutrient database. Participants were asked to count the carbohydrate content of each meal independently and then by using GoCARB. At the end of each session, a questionnaire was completed to assess the user’s experience with GoCARB. Results: The mean absolute error was 27.89 (SD 38.20) grams of carbohydrate for the estimation of participants, whereas the corresponding value for the GoCARB system was 12.28 (SD 9.56) grams of carbohydrate, which was a significantly better performance ( P=.001). In 75.4% (86/114) of the meals, the GoCARB automatic segmentation was successful and 85.1% (291/342) of individual food items were successfully recognized. Most participants found GoCARB easy to use. Conclusions: This study indicates that the system is able to estimate, on average, the carbohydrate content of meals with higher accuracy than individuals with type 1 diabetes can. The participants thought the app was useful and easy to use. GoCARB seems to be a well-accepted supportive mHealth tool for the assessment of served-on-a-plate meals.

Methodological and physiological test-retest reliability of (13) C-MRS glycogen measurements in liver and in skeletal muscle of patients with type 1 diabetes and matched healthy controls.

Glycogen is a major substrate in energy metabolism and particularly important to prevent hypoglycemia in pathologies of glucose homeostasis such as type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM). (13) C-MRS is increasingly used to determine glycogen in skeletal muscle and liver non-invasively; however, the low signal-to-noise ratio leads to long acquisition times, particularly when glycogen levels are determined before and after interventions. In order to ease the requirements for the subjects and to avoid systematic effects of the lengthy examination, we evaluated if a standardized preparation period would allow us to shift the baseline (pre-intervention) experiments to a preceding day. Based on natural abundance (13) C-MRS on a clinical 3 T MR system the present study investigated the test-retest reliability of glycogen measurements in patients with T1DM and matched controls (n = 10 each group) in quadriceps muscle and liver. Prior to the MR examination, participants followed a standardized diet and avoided strenuous exercise for two days. The average coefficient of variation (CV) of myocellular glycogen levels was 9.7% in patients with T1DM compared with 6.6% in controls after a 2 week period, while hepatic glycogen variability was 13.3% in patients with T1DM and 14.6% in controls. For comparison, a single-session test-retest variability in four healthy volunteers resulted in 9.5% for skeletal muscle and 14.3% for liver. Glycogen levels in muscle and liver were not statistically different between test and retest, except for hepatic glycogen, which decreased in T1DM patients in the retest examination, but without an increase of the group distribution. Since the CVs of glycogen levels determined in a "single session" versus "within weeks" are comparable, we conclude that the major source of uncertainty is the methodological error and that physiological variations can be minimized by a pre-study standardization. For hepatic glycogen examinations, familiarization sessions (MR and potentially strenuous interventions) are recommended. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Short-term stability in refractive status despite large fluctuations in glucose levels in diabetes mellitus type 1 and 2

Purpose: This work investigates how short-term changes in blood glucose concentration affect the refractive components of the diabetic eye in patients with long-term Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes. Methods: Blood glucose concentration, refractive error components (mean spherical equivalent MSE, J0, J45), central corneal thickness (CCT), anterior chamber depth (ACD), crystalline lens thickness (LT), axial length (AL) and ocular aberrations were monitored at two-hourly intervals over a 12-hour period in: 20 T1DM patients (mean age ± SD) 38±14 years, baseline HbA1c 8.6±1.9%; 21 T2DM patients (mean age ± SD) 56±11 years, HbA1c 7.5±1.8%; and in 20 control subjects (mean age ± SD) 49±23 years, HbA1c 5.5±0.5%. The refractive and biometric results were compared with the corresponding changes in blood glucose concentration. Results: Blood glucose concentration at different times was found to vary significantly within (p<0.0005) and between groups (p<0.0005). However, the refractive error components and ocular aberrations were not found to alter significantly over the day in either the diabetic patients or the control subjects (p>0.05). Minor changes of marginal statistical or optical significance were observed in some biometric parameters. Similarly there were some marginally significant differences between the baseline biometric parameters of well-controlled and poorly-controlled diabetic subjects. Conclusion: This work suggests that normal, short-term fluctuations (of up to about 6 mM/l on a timescale of a few hours) in the blood glucose levels of diabetics are not usually associated with acute changes in refractive error or ocular wavefront aberrations. It is therefore possible that factors other than refractive error fluctuations are sometimes responsible for the transient visual problems often reported by diabetic patients. © 2012 Huntjens et al.

Antioxidant And Anti-diabetic Potential Of Passiflora Alata Curtis Aqueous Leaves Extract In Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus (nod-mice).

Leaves of Passiflora alata Curtis were characterized for their antioxidant capacity. Antioxidant analyses of DPPH, FRAP, ABTS, ORAC and phenolic compounds were made in three different extracts: aqueous, methanol/acetone and ethanol. Aqueous extract was found to be the best solvent for recovery of phenolic compounds and antioxidant activity, when compared with methanol/acetone and ethanol. To study the anti-inflammatory properties of this extract in experimental type 1 diabetes, NOD mice were divided into two groups: the P. alata group, treated with aqueous extract of P. alata Curtis, and a non-treated control group, followed by diabetes expression analysis. The consumption of aqueous extract and water ad libitum lasted 28 weeks. The treated-group presented a decrease in diabetes incidence, a low quantity of infiltrative cells in pancreatic islets and increased glutathione in the kidney and liver (p<0.05), when compared with the diabetic and non-diabetic control-groups. In conclusion, our results suggest that the consumption of aqueous extract of P. alata may be considered a good source of natural antioxidants and compounds found in its composition can act as anti-inflammatory agents, helping in the control of diabetes.

Brooke-spiegler Syndrome Clinically Misdiagnosed As Neurofibromatosis Type 1.

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Exercise Increases Pancreatic β-cell Viability In A Model Of Type 1 Diabetes Through Il-6 Signaling.

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) is provoked by an autoimmune assault against pancreatic β cells. Exercise training enhances β-cell mass in T1D. Here, we investigated how exercise signals β cells in T1D condition. For this, we used several approaches. Wild-type and IL-6 knockout (KO) C57BL/6 mice were exercised. Afterward, islets from control and trained mice were exposed to inflammatory cytokines (IL-1β plus IFN-γ). Islets from control mice and β-cell lines (INS-1E and MIN6) were incubated with serum from control or trained mice or medium obtained from 5-aminoimidazole-4 carboxamide1-β-d-ribofuranoside (AICAR)-treated C2C12 skeletal muscle cells. Subsequently, islets and β cells were exposed to IL-1β plus IFN-γ. Proteins were assessed by immunoblotting, apoptosis was determined by DNA-binding dye propidium iodide fluorescence, and NO(•) was estimated by nitrite. Exercise reduced 25, 75, and 50% of the IL-1β plus IFN-γ-induced iNOS, nitrite, and cleaved caspase-3 content, respectively, in pancreatic islets. Serum from trained mice and medium from AICAR-treated C2C12 cells reduced β-cell death, induced by IL-1β plus IFN-γ treatment, in 15 and 38%, respectively. This effect was lost in samples treated with IL-6 inhibitor or with serum from exercised IL-6 KO mice. In conclusion, muscle contraction signals β-cell survival in T1D through IL-6.-Paula, F. M. M., Leite, N. C., Vanzela, E. C., Kurauti, M. A., Freitas-Dias, R., Carneiro, E. M., Boschero, A. C., and Zoppi, C. C. Exercise increases pancreatic β-cell viability in a model of type 1 diabetes through IL-6 signaling.

Association Of Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms In The Gene Encoding Glut1 And Diabetic Nephropathy In Brazilian Patients With Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus.

Mesangial cells subject to high extracellular glucose concentrations, as occur in hyperglycaemic states, are unable to down regulate glucose influx, resulting in intracellular activation of deleterious biochemical pathways. A high expression of GLUT1 participates in the development of diabetic glomerulopathy. Variants in the gene encoding GLUT1 (SLC2A1) have been associated to this diabetic complication. The aim of this study was to test whether polymorphisms in SLC2A1 confer susceptibility to diabetic nephropathy (DN) in Brazilian type 1 diabetes patients. Four polymorphisms (rs3820589, rs1385129, rs841847 and rs841848) were genotyped in a Brazilian cohort comprised of 452 patients. A prospective analysis was performed in 155 patients. Mean duration of follow-up was 5.6±2.4years and the incidence of renal events was 18.0%. The rs3820589 presented an inverse association with the prevalence of incipient DN (OR: 0.36, 95% CI: 0.16 - 0.80, p=0.01) and with progression to renal events (HR: 0.20; 95% CI: 0.03 - 0.70; p=0.009). AGGT and AGAC haplotypes were associated with the prevalence of incipient DN and the AGAC haplotype was also associated with the prevalence of established/advanced DN. In conclusion, rs3820589 in the SLC2A1 gene modulates the risk to DN in Brazilian patients with inadequate type 1 diabetes control.

Long-term follow-up of an 8-year-old boy with insulinoma as the first manifestation of a familial form of multiple endocrine neoplasia type 1

Multiple endocrine neoplasia type 1 (MEN1) is an autosomal dominant hereditary cancer syndrome characterized mostly by parathyroid, enteropancreatic, and anterior pituitary tumors. We present a case of an 8-year-old boy referred because of hypoglycemic attacks. His diagnosis was pancreatic insulinoma. Paternal grandmother died due to repeated gastroduodenal ulcerations and a paternal aunt presented similar manifestations. At a first evaluation, the father presented only gastric ulceration but subsequently developed hyperparathyroidism and lung carcinoid tumor. During almost 15 years of follow-up, three brothers and the index case presented hyperparathyroidism and hyperprolactinemia. Molecular study showed a G to A substitution in intron 4, at nine nucleotides upstream of the splicing acceptor site, causing a splicing mutation. All affected members of the family have the same mutation. Paternal grandmother and aunt were not studied and the mother does not carry any mutation. MEN1 is a rare condition that requires permanent medical assistance. Early clinical and genetic identification of affected individuals is essential for their own surveillance and also for genetic counseling.

Socioeconomic Differences in Preferences and Willingness-to-Pay for Insulin Delivery Systems in Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes

Background: An evaluation of patients' preferences is necessary to understand the demand for different insulin delivery systems. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between socioeconomic status (SES) and patients' preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) for various attributes of insulin administration for diabetes management. Methods: We conducted a discrete choice experiment (DCE) to determine patients' preferences and their WTP for hypothetical insulin treatments. Both self-reported annual household income and education completed were used to explore differences in treatment preferences and WTP for different attributes of treatment across different levels of SES. Results: The DCE questionnaire was successfully completed by 274 patients. Overall, glucose control was the most valued attribute by all socioeconomic groups, while route of insulin delivery was not as important. Patients with higher incomes were willing to pay significantly more for better glucose control and to avoid adverse events compared to lower income groups. In addition, they were willing to pay more for an oral short-acting insulin ($Can 71.65 [95% confidence interval, $40.68, $102.62]) compared to the low income group ($Can 9.85 [95% confidence interval, 14.86, 34.56; P < 0.01]). Conversely, there were no differences in preferences when the sample was stratified by level of education. Conclusions: This study revealed that preferences and WTP for insulin therapy are influenced by income but not by level of education. Specifically, the higher the income, the greater desire for an oral insulin delivery system, whereas an inhaled route becomes less important for patients.

The frequency of CD127(low) expressing CD4(+)CD25(high) T regulatory cells is inversely correlated with human T lymphotrophic virus type-1 (HTLV-1) proviral load in HTLV-1-infection and HTLV-1-associated myelopathy/tropical spastic paraparesis

Background: CD4(+)CD25(high) regulatory T (T(Reg)) cells modulate antigen-specific T cell responses, and can suppress anti-viral immunity. In HTLV-1 infection, a selective decrease in the function of T(Reg) cell mediated HTLV-1-tax inhibition of FOXP3 expression has been described. The purpose of this study was to assess the frequency and phenotype of T(Reg) cells in HTLV-1 asymptomatic carriers and in HTLV-1-associated neurological disease (HAM/TSP) patients, and to correlate with measures of T cell activation. Results: We were able to confirm that HTLV-1 drives activation, spontaneous IFN gamma production, and proliferation of CD4+ T cells. We also observed a significantly lower proportion of CTLA-4(+) T(Reg) cells (CD4(+)CD25(high) T cells) in subjects with HAM/TSP patients compared to healthy controls. Ki-67 expression was negatively correlated to the frequency of CTLA-4(+) T(Reg) cells in HAM/TSP only, although Ki-67 expression was inversely correlated with the percentage of CD127(low) T(Reg) cells in healthy control subjects. Finally, the proportion of CD127(low) T(Reg) cells correlated inversely with HTLV-1 proviral load. Conclusion: Taken together, the results suggest that T(Reg) cells may be subverted in HAM/TSP patients, which could explain the marked cellular activation, spontaneous cytokine production, and proliferation of CD4(+) T cells, in particular those expressing the CD25(high)CD127(low) phenotype. T(Reg) cells represent a potential target for therapeutic intervention for patients with HTLV-1-related neurological diseases.

An empirical evaluation of imputation accuracy for association statistics reveals increased type-I error rates in genome-wide associations

Background: Genome wide association studies (GWAS) are becoming the approach of choice to identify genetic determinants of complex phenotypes and common diseases. The astonishing amount of generated data and the use of distinct genotyping platforms with variable genomic coverage are still analytical challenges. Imputation algorithms combine directly genotyped markers information with haplotypic structure for the population of interest for the inference of a badly genotyped or missing marker and are considered a near zero cost approach to allow the comparison and combination of data generated in different studies. Several reports stated that imputed markers have an overall acceptable accuracy but no published report has performed a pair wise comparison of imputed and empiric association statistics of a complete set of GWAS markers. Results: In this report we identified a total of 73 imputed markers that yielded a nominally statistically significant association at P < 10(-5) for type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and compared them with results obtained based on empirical allelic frequencies. Interestingly, despite their overall high correlation, association statistics based on imputed frequencies were discordant in 35 of the 73 (47%) associated markers, considerably inflating the type I error rate of imputed markers. We comprehensively tested several quality thresholds, the haplotypic structure underlying imputed markers and the use of flanking markers as predictors of inaccurate association statistics derived from imputed markers. Conclusions: Our results suggest that association statistics from imputed markers showing specific MAF (Minor Allele Frequencies) range, located in weak linkage disequilibrium blocks or strongly deviating from local patterns of association are prone to have inflated false positive association signals. The present study highlights the potential of imputation procedures and proposes simple procedures for selecting the best imputed markers for follow-up genotyping studies.