Rural property size drives patterns of upland and riparian forest retention in a tropical deforestation frontier

Deforestation in Brazilian Amazonia accounts for a disproportionate global scale fraction of both carbon emissions from biomass burning and biodiversity erosion through habitat loss. Here we use field- and remote-sensing data to examine the effects of private landholding size on the amount and type of forest cover retained within economically active rural properties in an aging southern Amazonian deforestation frontier. Data on both upland and riparian forest cover from a survey of 300 rural properties indicated that 49.4% (SD = 29.0%) of the total forest cover was maintained as of 2007. and that property size is a key regional-scale determinant of patterns of deforestation and land-use change. Small properties (<= 150 ha) retained a lower proportion of forest (20.7%, SD = 17.6) than did large properties (>150 ha; 55.6%, SD = 27.2). Generalized linear models showed that property size had a positive effect on remaining areas of both upland and total forest cover. Using a Landsat time-series, the age of first clear-cutting that could be mapped within the boundaries of each property had a negative effect on the proportion of upland, riparian, and total forest cover retained. Based on these data, we show contrasts in land-use strategies between smallholders and largeholders, as well as differences in compliance with legal requirements in relation to minimum forest cover set-asides within private landholdings. This suggests that property size structure must be explicitly considered in landscape-scale conservation planning initiatives guiding agro-pastoral frontier expansion into remaining areas of tropical forest. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rural property size drives patterns of upland and riparian forest retention in a tropical deforestation frontier

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Characterizing a tropical deforestation wave: a dynamic spatial analysis of a deforestation hotspot in the Colombian Amazon

Tropical deforestation is the major contemporary threat to global biodiversity, because a diminishing extent of tropical forests supports the majority of the Earth's biodiversity. Forest clearing is often spatially concentrated in regions where human land use pressures, either planned or unplanned, increase the likelihood of deforestation. However, it is not a random process, but often moves in waves originating from settled areas. We investigate the spatial dynamics of land cover change in a tropical deforestation hotspot in the Colombian Amazon. We apply a forest cover zoning approach which permitted: calculation of colonization speed; comparative spatial analysis of patterns of deforestation and regeneration; analysis of spatial patterns of mature and recently regenerated forests; and the identification of local-level hotspots experiencing the fastest deforestation or regeneration. The colonization frontline moved at an average of 0.84 km yr(-1) from 1989 to 2002, resulting in the clearing of 3400 ha yr(-1) of forests beyond the 90% forest cover line. The dynamics of forest clearing varied across the colonization front according to the amount of forest in the landscape, but was spatially concentrated in well-defined 'local hotspots' of deforestation and forest regeneration. Behind the deforestation front, the transformed landscape mosaic is composed of cropping and grazing lands interspersed with mature forest fragments and patches of recently regenerated forests. We discuss the implications of the patterns of forest loss and fragmentation for biodiversity conservation within a framework of dynamic conservation planning.

Linking Reduced Deforestation and a Global Carbon Market: Impacts on Costs, Financial Flows, and Technological Innovation

25 p.

Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997-2009)

New burned area datasets and top-down constraints from atmospheric concentration measurements of pyrogenic gases have decreased the large uncertainty in fire emissions estimates. However, significant gaps remain in our understanding of the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural waste, and peat fires to total global fire emissions. Here we used a revised version of the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford-Approach (CASA) biogeochemical model and improved satellite-derived estimates of area burned, fire activity, and plant productivity to calculate fire emissions for the 1997-2009 period on a 0.5° spatial resolution with a monthly time step. For November 2000 onwards, estimates were based on burned area, active fire detections, and plant productivity from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor. For the partitioning we focused on the MODIS era. We used maps of burned area derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS) and Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) active fire data prior to MODIS (1997-2000) and estimates of plant productivity derived from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) observations during the same period. Average global fire carbon emissions according to this version 3 of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED3) were 2.0 PgC year-1 with significant interannual variability during 1997-2001 (2.8 Pg Cyear-1 in 1998 and 1.6 PgC year-1 in 2001). Globally, emissions during 2002-2007 were rela-tively constant (around 2.1 Pg C year-1) before declining in 2008 (1.7 Pg Cyear-1) and 2009 (1.5 PgC year-1) partly due to lower deforestation fire emissions in South America and tropical Asia. On a regional basis, emissions were highly variable during 2002-2007 (e.g., boreal Asia, South America, and Indonesia), but these regional differences canceled out at a global level. During the MODIS era (2001-2009), most carbon emissions were from fires in grasslands and savannas (44%) with smaller contributions from tropical deforestation and degradation fires (20%), woodland fires (mostly confined to the tropics, 16%), forest fires (mostly in the extratropics, 15%), agricultural waste burning (3%), and tropical peat fires (3%). The contribution from agricultural waste fires was likely a lower bound because our approach for measuring burned area could not detect all of these relatively small fires. Total carbon emissions were on average 13% lower than in our previous (GFED2) work. For reduced trace gases such as CO and CH4, deforestation, degradation, and peat fires were more important contributors because of higher emissions of reduced trace gases per unit carbon combusted compared to savanna fires. Carbon emissions from tropical deforestation, degradation, and peatland fires were on average 0.5 PgC year-1. The carbon emissions from these fires may not be balanced by regrowth following fire. Our results provide the first global assessment of the contribution of different sources to total global fire emissions for the past decade, and supply the community with an improved 13-year fire emissions time series. © 2010 Author(s).

Can the Deforestation Breeze Change the Rainfall in Amazonia? A Case Study for the BR-163 Highway Region

The authors simulated the effects of Amazonian mesoscale deforestation in the boundary layer and in rainfall with the Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) model. They found that both the area and shape (with respect to wind incidence) of deforestation and the soil moisture status contributed to the state of the atmosphere during the time scale of several weeks, with distinguishable patterns of temperature, humidity, and rainfall. Deforestation resulted in the development of a three-dimensional thermal cell, the so-called deforestation breeze, slightly shifted downwind to large-scale circulation. The boundary layer was warmer and drier above 1000-m height and was slightly wetter up to 2000-m height. Soil wetness affected the circulation energetics proportionally to the soil dryness (for soil wetness below similar to 0.6). The shape of the deforestation controlled the impact on rainfall. The horizontal strips lined up with the prevailing wind showed a dominant increase in rainfall, significant up to about 60 000 km(2). On the other hand, in the patches aligned in the opposite direction (north-south), there was both increase and decrease in precipitation in two distinct regions, as a result of clearly separated upward and downward branches, which caused the precipitation to increase for patches up to 15 000 km(2). The authors` estimates for the size of deforestation impacting the rainfall contributed to fill up the low spatial resolution in other previous studies.

Predicting Amazon Deforestation through the deterninants of demand for agricultural land

This paper develops a model of deforestation pressure in the Amazon. It is based on the determinants of demand for agricultural land, i.e. the interactions between population dynamics, urbanization and the growth of local markets, land prices, and government spending and policies. The mo deI is estimated using data from the period 1970 - 1985, and predictions for the period 1985 - 2010 are made under explicit assumptions about the underlying factors of deforestation. The predictions indicate that economic growth in the Amazon is likely to continue at high rates even if the federal government abandons its aggressive development policy. Deforestation will be much smaller if they do, though, since the active development policies tend to promote wasteful use of land.

Analysing trade-offs between food production and ecosystem services in tropical forests of lowland Bolivia

The expansion of agricultural land is responsible for most tropical deforestation. Historically, smallholder farming and shifting cultivation has been reported as the main agent of deforestation. However, the increasing global demand for food in recent years has greatly boosted the development of medium and large-scale commercial agriculture which is nowadays causing the majority of tropical forest cover loss, particularly in Latin America.

Modeling the age of tropical moist forest fragments in heavily-cleared lowland landscapes of Colombia

Increasingly, large areas of native tropical forests are being transformed into a mosaic of human dominated land uses with scattered mature remnants and secondary forests. In general, at the end of the land clearing process, the landscape will have two forest components: a stable component of surviving mature forests, and a dynamic component of secondary forests of different ages. As the proportion of mature forests continues to decline, secondary forests play an increasing role in the conservation and restoration of biodiversity. This paper aims to predict and explain spatial and temporal patterns in the age of remnant mature and secondary forests in lowland Colombian landscapes. We analyse the age distributions of forest fragments, using detailed temporal land cover data derived from aerial photographs. Ordinal logistic regression analysis was applied to model the spatial dynamics of mature and secondary forest patches. In particular, the effect of soil fertility, accessibility and auto-correlated neighbourhood terms on forest age and time of isolation of remnant patches was assessed. In heavily transformed landscapes, forests account for approximately 8% of the total landscape area, of which three quarters are comprised of secondary forests. Secondary forest growth adjacent to mature forest patches increases mean patch size and core area, and therefore plays an important ecological role in maintaining landscape structure. The regression models show that forest age is positively associated with the amount of neighbouring forest, and negatively associated with the amount of neighbouring secondary vegetation, so the older the forest is the less secondary vegetation there is adjacent to it. Accessibility and soil fertility also have a negative but variable influence on the age of forest remnants. The probability of future clearing if current conditions hold is higher for regenerated than mature forests. The challenge of biodiversity conservation and restoration in dynamic and spatially heterogeneous landscape mosaics composed of mature and secondary forests is discussed. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of roads, topography, and land use on forest cover dynamics in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Roads and topography can determine patterns of land use and distribution of forest cover, particularly in tropical regions. We evaluated how road density, land use, and topography affected forest fragmentation, deforestation and forest regrowth in a Brazilian Atlantic Forest region near the city of Sao Paulo. We mapped roads and land use/land cover for three years (1962, 1981 and 2000) from historical aerial photographs, and summarized the distribution of roads, land use/land cover and topography within a grid of 94 non-overlapping 100 ha squares. We used generalized least squares regression models for data analysis. Our models showed that forest fragmentation and deforestation depended on topography, land use and road density, whereas forest regrowth depended primarily on land use. However, the relationships between these variables and forest dynamics changed in the two studied periods; land use and slope were the strongest predictors from 1962 to 1981, and past (1962) road density and land use were the strongest predictors for the following period (1981-2000). Roads had the strongest relationship with deforestation and forest fragmentation when the expansions of agriculture and buildings were limited to already deforested areas, and when there was a rapid expansion of development, under influence of Sao Paulo city. Furthermore, the past(1962)road network was more important than the recent road network (1981) when explaining forest dynamics between 1981 and 2000, suggesting a long-term effect of roads. Roads are permanent scars on the landscape and facilitate deforestation and forest fragmentation due to increased accessibility and land valorization, which control land-use and land-cover dynamics. Topography directly affected deforestation, agriculture and road expansion, mainly between 1962 and 1981. Forest are thus in peril where there are more roads, and long-term conservation strategies should consider ways to mitigate roads as permanent landscape features and drivers facilitators of deforestation and forest fragmentation. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Biodiversity conservation in human-modified Amazonian forest landscapes

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Imagens multitemporais ALOS/PALSAR baseada em orientação a objeto na discriminação da cobertura da terra

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Forest losses predict bird extinctions in eastern North America.

Claims that there will be a massive loss of species as tropical forests are cleared are based on the relationship between habitat area and the number of species. Few studies calibrate extinction with habitat reduction. Critics raise doubts about this calibration, noting that there has been extensive clearing of the eastern North American forest, yet only 4 of its approximately 200 bird species have gone extinct. We analyze the distribution of bird species and the timing and extent of forest loss. The forest losses were not concurrent across the region. Based on the maximum extent of forest losses, our calculations predict fewer extinctions than the number observed. At most, there are 28 species of birds restricted to the region. Only these species would be at risk even if all the forests were cleared. Far from providing comfort to those who argue that the current rapid rate of tropical deforestation might cause fewer extinctions than often claimed, our results suggest that the losses may be worse. In contrast to eastern North America, small regions of tropical forest often hold hundreds of endemic bird species.