Intensification of winter transatlantic aviation turbulence in response to climate change

Atmospheric turbulence causes most weather-related aircraft incidents1. Commercial aircraft encounter moderate-or-greater turbulence tens of thousands of times each year worldwide, injuring probably hundreds of passengers (occasionally fatally), costing airlines tens of millions of dollars and causing structural damage to planes1, 2, 3. Clear-air turbulence is especially difficult to avoid, because it cannot be seen by pilots or detected by satellites or on-board radar4, 5. Clear-air turbulence is linked to atmospheric jet streams6, 7, which are projected to be strengthened by anthropogenic climate change8. However, the response of clear-air turbulence to projected climate change has not previously been studied. Here we show using climate model simulations that clear-air turbulence changes significantly within the transatlantic flight corridor when the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is doubled. At cruise altitudes within 50–75° N and 10–60° W in winter, most clear-air turbulence measures show a 10–40% increase in the median strength of turbulence and a 40–170% increase in the frequency of occurrence of moderate-or-greater turbulence. Our results suggest that climate change will lead to bumpier transatlantic flights by the middle of this century. Journey times may lengthen and fuel consumption and emissions may increase. Aviation is partly responsible for changing the climate9, but our findings show for the first time how climate change could affect aviation.

Transatlantic flight times and climate change

Aircraft do not fly through a vacuum, but through an atmosphere whose meteorological characteristics are changing because of global warming. The impacts of aviation on climate change have long been recognised, but the impacts of climate change on aviation have only recently begun to emerge. These impacts include intensified turbulence and increased take-off weight restrictions. Here we investigate the influence of climate change on flight routes and journey times. We feed synthetic atmospheric wind fields generated from climate model simulations into a routing algorithm of the type used operationally by flight planners. We focus on transatlantic flights between London and New York, and how they change when the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is doubled. We find that a strengthening of the prevailing jet-stream winds causes eastbound flights to significantly shorten and westbound flights to significantly lengthen in all seasons. Eastbound and westbound crossings in winter become approximately twice as likely to take under 5 h 20 min and over 7 h 00 min, respectively. For reasons that are explained using a conceptual model, the eastbound shortening and westbound lengthening do not cancel out, causing round-trip journey times to increase. Even assuming no future growth in aviation, the extrapolation of our results to all transatlantic traffic suggests that aircraft will collectively be airborne for an extra 2000 h each year, burning an extra 7.2 million gallons of jet fuel at a cost of US$ 22 million, and emitting an extra 70 million kg of carbon dioxide, which is equivalent to the annual emissions of 7100 average British homes. Our results provide further evidence of the two-way interaction between aviation and climate change.

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Mode of access: Internet.

Differences in published characteristics of GLE60 and their consequences on computed radiation dose rates along selected flight paths

The radiation dose rates at flight altitudes can increase by orders of magnitude for a short time during energetic solar cosmic ray events, so called ground level enhancements (GLEs). Especially at high latitudes and flight altitudes, solar energetic particles superposed on galactic cosmic rays may cause radiation that exceeds the maximum allowed dosage limit for the general public. Therefore the determination of the radiation dose rate during GLEs should be as reliable as possible. Radiation dose rates along flight paths are typically determined by computer models that are based on cosmic ray flux and anisotropy parameters derived from neutron monitor and/or satellite measurements. The characteristics of the GLE on 15 April 2001 (GLE60) were determined and published by various authors. In this work we compare these results and investigate the consequences on the computed radiation dose rates along selected flight paths. In addition, we compare the computed radiation dose rates with measurements that were made during GLE60 on board two transatlantic flights.

Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on transatlantic flight routes and clear-air turbulence

The variation of wind-optimal transatlantic flight routes and their turbulence potential is investigated to understand how upper-level winds and large-scale flow patterns can affect the efficiency and safety of long-haul flights. In this study, the wind-optimal routes (WORs) that minimize the total flight time by considering wind variations are modeled for flights between John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK) in New York, New York, and Heathrow Airport (LHR) in London, United Kingdom, during two distinct winter periods of abnormally high and low phases of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) teleconnection patterns. Eastbound WORs approximate the JFK–LHR great circle (GC) route following northerly shifted jets in the +NAO period. Those WORs deviate southward following southerly shifted jets during the −NAO period, because eastbound WORs fly closely to the prevailing westerly jets to maximize tailwinds. Westbound WORs, however, spread meridionally to avoid the jets near the GC in the +NAO period to minimize headwinds. In the −NAO period, westbound WORs are north of the GC because of the southerly shifted jets. Consequently, eastbound WORs are faster but have higher probabilities of encountering clear-air turbulence than westbound ones, because eastbound WORs are close to the jet streams, especially near the cyclonic shear side of the jets in the northern (southern) part of the GC in the +NAO (−NAO) period. This study suggests how predicted teleconnection weather patterns can be used for long-haul strategic flight planning, ultimately contributing to minimizing aviation’s impact on the environment

We don’t want your must-see TV: Transatlantic television and the failed “Coupling” format

NBC's failed attempt to remake the BBC's Coupling generated a significant amount of press coverage in summer 2003. At the core of the debate was a struggle to reconcile an increasingly integrated transatlantic television market with traditional assumptions about culture and its authentic connection to space and place. The interest in the remake not only created a space where certain national differences were played out and performed but also facilitated an equally compelling transatlantic dialogue about creative ownership, appropriation, and a network's responsibility to its audiences. In doing so, the media attention highlighted how television formats are best understood not as innocuous commodities of international trade but as potential sites of articulation, contestation, and community in an increasingly transnational television environment.

Path-integral formulation for Levy flights: Evaluation of the propagator for free, linear, and harmonic potentials in the over- and underdamped limits

Levy flights can be described using a Fokker-Planck equation, which involves a fractional derivative operator in the position coordinate. Such an operator has its natural expression in the Fourier domain. Starting with this, we show that the solution of the equation can be written as a Hamiltonian path integral. Though this has been realized in the literature, the method has not found applications as the path integral appears difficult to evaluate. We show that a method in which one integrates over the position coordinates first, after which integration is performed over the momentum coordinates, can be used to evaluate several path integrals that are of interest. Using this, we evaluate the propagators for (a) free particle, (b) particle subjected to a linear potential, and (c) harmonic potential. In all the three cases, we have obtained results for both overdamped and underdamped cases. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.86.061105

PHYLOGEOGRAPHIC PATTERNS INDICATE TRANSATLANTIC MIGRATION FROM EUROPE TO NORTH AMERICA IN THE RED SEAWEED CHONDRUS CRISPUS (GIGARTINALES, RHODOPHYTA)1

Inferring how the Pleistocene climate oscillations have repopulated the extant population structure of Chondrus crispus Stackh. in the North Atlantic Ocean is important both for our understanding of the glacial episode promoting diversification and for the conservation and development of marine organisms. C. crispus is an ecologically and commercially important red seaweed with broad distributions in the North Atlantic. Here, we employed both partial mtDNA Cox1 and nrDNA internal transcribed spacer region 2 (ITS2) sequences to explore the genetic structure of 17 C. crispus populations from this area. Twenty-eight and 30 haplotypes were inferred from these two markers, respectively. Analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) and of the population statistic Theta(ST) not only revealed significant genetic structure within C. crispus populations but also detected significant levels of genetic subdivision among and within populations in the North Atlantic. On the basis of high haplotype diversity and the presence of endemic haplotypes, we postulate that C. crispus had survived in Pleistocene glacial refugia in the northeast Atlantic, such as the English Channel and the northwestern Iberian Peninsula. We also hypothesize that C. crispus from the English Channel refugium repopulated most of northeastern Europe and recolonized northeastern North America in the Late Pleistocene. The observed phylogeographic pattern of C. crispus populations is in agreement with a scenario in which severe Quaternary glaciations influenced the genetic structure of North Atlantic marine organisms with contiguous population expansion and locally restricted gene flow coupled with a transatlantic dispersal in the Late Pleistocene.

Foraging success of biological Levy flights recorded in situ

It is an open question how animals find food in dynamic natural environments where they possess little or no knowledge of where resources are located. Foraging theory predicts that in environments with sparsely distributed target resources, where forager knowledge about resources’ locations is incomplete, Lévy flight movements optimize the success of random searches. However, the putative success of Lévy foraging has been demonstrated only in model simulations. Here, we use high-temporal-resolution Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking of wandering (Diomedea exulans) and black-browed albatrosses (Thalassarche melanophrys) with simultaneous recording of prey captures, to show that both species exhibit Lévy and Brownian movement patterns. We find that total prey masses captured by wandering albatrosses during Lévy movements exceed daily energy requirements by nearly fourfold, and approached yields by Brownian movements in other habitats. These results, together with our reanalysis of previously published albatross data, overturn the notion that albatrosses do not exhibit Lévy patterns during foraging, and demonstrate that Lévy flights of predators in dynamic natural environments present a beneficial alternative strategy to simple, spatially intensive behaviors. Our findings add support to the possibility that biological Lévy flight may have naturally evolved as a search strategy in response to sparse resources and scant information.