What influence will future solar activity changes over the 21st century have on projected global near-surface temperature changes?

During the 20th century, solar activity increased in magnitude to a so-called grand maximum. It is probable that this high level of solar activity is at or near its end. It is of great interest whether any future reduction in solar activity could have a significant impact on climate that could partially offset the projected anthropogenic warming. Observations and reconstructions of solar activity over the last 9000 years are used as a constraint on possible future variations to produce probability distributions of total solar irradiance over the next 100 years. Using this information, with a simple climate model, we present results of the potential implications for future projections of climate on decadal to multidecadal timescales. Using one of the most recent reconstructions of historic total solar irradiance, the likely reduction in the warming by 2100 is found to be between 0.06 and 0.1 K, a very small fraction of the projected anthropogenic warming. However, if past total solar irradiance variations are larger and climate models substantially underestimate the response to solar variations, then there is a potential for a reduction in solar activity to mitigate a small proportion of the future warming, a scenario we cannot totally rule out. While the Sun is not expected to provide substantial delays in the time to reach critical temperature thresholds, any small delays it might provide are likely to be greater for lower anthropogenic emissions scenarios than for higher-emissions scenarios.

The effect of nonlinearity in CO2 heating rates on the attribution of stratospheric ozone and temperature changes

An analysis of the attribution of past and future changes in stratospheric ozone and temperature to anthropogenic forcings is presented. The analysis is an extension of the study of Shepherd and Jonsson (2008) who analyzed chemistry-climate simulations from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) and attributed both past and future changes to changes in the external forcings, i.e. the abundances of ozone-depleting substances (ODS) and well-mixed greenhouse gases. The current study is based on a new CMAM dataset and includes two important changes. First, we account for the nonlinear radiative response to changes in CO2. It is shown that over centennial time scales the radiative response in the upper stratosphere to CO2 changes is significantly nonlinear and that failure to account for this effect leads to a significant error in the attribution. To our knowledge this nonlinearity has not been considered before in attribution analysis, including multiple linear regression studies. For the regression analysis presented here the nonlinearity was taken into account by using CO2 heating rate, rather than CO2 abundance, as the explanatory variable. This approach yields considerable corrections to the results of the previous study and can be recommended to other researchers. Second, an error in the way the CO2 forcing changes are implemented in the CMAM was corrected, which significantly affects the results for the recent past. As the radiation scheme, based on Fomichev et al. (1998), is used in several other models we provide some description of the problem and how it was fixed.

On the attribution of stratospheric ozone and temperature changes to changes in ozone-depleting substances and well-mixed greenhouse gases

The vertical profile of global-mean stratospheric temperature changes has traditionally represented an important diagnostic for the attribution of the cooling effects of stratospheric ozone depletion and CO2 increases. However, CO2-induced cooling alters ozone abundance by perturbing ozone chemistry, thereby coupling the stratospheric ozone and temperature responses to changes in CO2 and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). Here we untangle the ozone-temperature coupling and show that the attribution of global-mean stratospheric temperature changes to CO2 and ODS changes (which are the true anthropogenic forcing agents) can be quite different from the traditional attribution to CO2 and ozone changes. The significance of these effects is quantified empirically using simulations from a three-dimensional chemistry-climate model. The results confirm the essential validity of the traditional approach in attributing changes during the past period of rapid ODS increases, although we find that about 10% of the upper stratospheric ozone decrease from ODS increases over the period 1975–1995 was offset by the increase in CO2, and the CO2-induced cooling in the upper stratosphere has been somewhat overestimated. When considering ozone recovery, however, the ozone-temperature coupling is a first-order effect; fully 2/5 of the upper stratospheric ozone increase projected to occur from 2010–2040 is attributable to CO2 increases. Thus, it has now become necessary to base attribution of global-mean stratospheric temperature changes on CO2 and ODS changes rather than on CO2 and ozone changes.

Sensitivity of Bolivian seasonally-dry tropical forest to precipitation and temperature changes over glacial-interglacial timescales

We used fossil pollen to investigate the response of the eastern Chiquitano seasonally-dry tropical forest (SDTF), lowland Bolivia, to high-amplitude climate change associated with glacial–interglacial cycles. Changes in the structure, composition and diversity of the past vegetation are compared with palaeoclimate data previously reconstructed from the same record, and these results shed light on the biogeographic history of today’s highly disjunct blocks of SDTF across South America. We demonstrate that lower glacial temperatures limited tropical forest in the Chiquitanía region, and suggest that SDTF was absent or restricted at latitudes below 17°S, the proposed location of the majority of the hypothesized ‘Pleistocene dry forest arc’ (PDFA). At 19500 yrs b.p., warming supported the establishment of a floristically-distinct SDTF, which showed little change throughout the glacial–Holocene transition, despite a shift to significantly wetter conditions beginning ca. 12500–12200 yrs b.p. Anadenanthera colubrina, a key SDTF taxon, arrived at 10000 yrs b.p., which coincides with the onset of drought associated with an extended dry season. Lasting until 3000 yrs b.p., Holocene drought caused a floristic shift to more drought-tolerant taxa and a reduction in α-diversity (shown by declining palynological richness), but closed-canopy forest was maintained throughout. In contrast to the PDFA, the modern distribution of SDTF most likely represents the greatest spatial coverage of these forests in southern South America since glacial times. We find that temperature is a key climatic control upon the distribution of lowland South American SDTF over glacial-interglacial timescales, and seasonality of rainfall exerts a strong control on their floristic composition.

Temperature Changes in Gutta-Percha and Resilon Cones Induced by a Thermomechanical Compaction Technique

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Tribute to R.G. Boutilier: Skin colour and body temperature changes in basking Bokermannohyla alvarengai (Bokermann 1956)

In amphibians solar basking far from water sources is relatively uncommon since the highly permeable amphibian skin does not represent a significant barrier to the accompanying risk of losing water by evaporation. A South American frog, Bokermannohyla alvarengai (Bokermann 1956), however, spends a significant amount of the day exposed to full sun and relatively high temperatures. The means by which this frog copes with potentially high rates of evaporative water loss and high body temperatures are unknown. Thus, in this study, skin colour changes, body surface temperature, and evaporative water loss rates were examined under a mixture of field and laboratory conditions to ascertain whether changes in skin reflectivity play an important role in this animal's thermal and hydric balance. Field data demonstrated a tight correlation between the lightness of skin colour and frog temperature, with lighter frogs being captured possessing higher body temperatures. Laboratory experiments supported this relationship, revealing that frogs kept in the dark or at lower temperatures (20 degrees C) had darker skin colours, whereas frogs kept in the light or higher temperatures (30 degrees C) had skin colours of a lighter hue. Light exhibited a stronger influence on skin colour than temperature alone, suggesting that colour change is triggered by the increase in incident solar energy and in anticipation of changes in body temperature. This conclusion is corroborated by the observation that cold, darkly coloured frogs placed in the sun rapidly became lighter in colour during the initial warming up period (over the first 5 min), after which they warmed up more slowly and underwent a further, albeit slower, lightening of skin colour. Surprisingly, despite its natural disposition to bask in the sun, this species does not possess a 'waterproof' skin, since its rates of evaporative water loss were not dissimilar from many hylid species that live in arboreal or semi-aquatic environments. The natural history of B. alvarengai is largely unknown and, therefore, it is likely that the herein reported colour change and basking behaviour represent a complex interaction between thermoregulation and water balance with other ecologically relevant functions, such as crypsis.

The role of allergic rhinitis in nasal responses to sudden temperature changes

Background: Air conditioning-induced rhinitis in allergic individuals is a common epidemiologic finding, but its physiopathology,is still controversial. The aim of this study was to describe and compare the effects of experimental air conditioning temperature changes on the nasal mucosa of individuals with persistent allergic rhinitis compared with a control group.Methods: A case-control challenge study was performed in a laboratory of thermal comfort with experimental twin challenge chambers set at a 12 C difference in temperature. A group of 32 patients with persistent allergic rhinitis and a group of 16 control subjects were exposed for 30 minutes, 3 times alternately in each chamber. Nasal symptom scores were recorded and nasal samples collected before, immediately after, and 24 and 48 hours after the challenge.Results: the rhinitis group showed a higher symptom score, epithelial shedding, percentage of eosinophils, total inflammatory cells, leukotriene C-4, eosinophil cationic protein, albumin, and tryptase levels compared with controls. There was also a significant increase in symptom score, total cells recovered, percentage of eosinophils, epithelial shedding, albumin, myeloperoxidase, and soluble intercellular adhesion molecule 1 in both groups compared with baseline levels.Conclusion: Sudden temperature changes led to a more pronounced inflammatory nasal response in the rhinitis group with the recruitment and activation of eosinophils.Clinical implications: Persistent allergic rhinitis is a risk factor for developing sudden temperature change-related rhinitis even in the absence of allergen exposure.

Oocyte meiotic-stage-specific differences in spindle depolymerization in response to temperature changes monitored with polarized field microscopy and immunocytochemistry

Objective: To compare the polymerization status of mouse oocyte spindles exposed to various temperatures at various stages of meiosis. Design: Experimental animal study. Setting: University animal laboratory. Animal(s): CF1 mice. Intervention(s): Immature oocytes matured to metaphase I (MI), telophase I (TI), and metaphase II (MII) were incubated at 37 degrees C (control), room temperature (RT), or 4 degrees C for 0, 10, 30, and 60 minutes. Spindle analysis subsequently was performed using polarized field microscopy and immunocytochemistry. Spindles of TI and MII oocytes that underwent vitrification and warming were analyzed also by immunocytochemistry. Main Outcome Measure(s): Detection of polymerized meiotic spindles. Result(s): At RT, and after 60 minutes at 4 degrees C, a significant time-dependent decrease in the percentage of polymerized meiotic spindles was observed in MI and MII oocytes, but not in TI oocytes. The polymerization of TI spindles at 4 degrees C was similar to that of TI spindles at 4 degrees C that underwent vitrification and warming. Conclusion(s): Significant differences in the microtubule dynamics of MI, TI, and MII oocytes incubated at different temperatures were observed. In particular, meiotic spindles in TI oocytes exhibited less depolymerization than did metaphase spindles. (Fertil Steril (R) 2012; 97: 714-9. (C) 2012 by American Society for Reproductive Medicine.)

Temperature changes on the root surfaces of mandibular incisors after an 810-nm high-intensity intracanal diode laser irradiation

Temperature changes caused by laser irradiation can promote damage to the surrounding dental tissues. In this study, we evaluated the temperature changes of recently extracted human mandibular incisors during intracanal irradiation with an 810-nm diode laser at different settings. Fifty mandibular incisors were enlarged up to an apical size of ISO No. 40 file. After the final rinse with 17% ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid, 0.2% lauryl sodium sulfate biologic detergent, and sterile water, samples were irradiated with circular movements from apex to crown through five different settings of output power (1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0, and 3.5 W) in continuous mode. The temperature changes were measured on both sides of the apical and middle root thirds using two thermopar devices. A temperature increase of 7 degrees C was considered acceptable as a safe threshold when applying the diode laser. Results: The results showed that only 3.5-W output power increased the outer surface temperature above the critical value. Conclusion: The recommended output power can be stipulated as equal to or less than 3 W to avoid overheating during diode laser irradiation on thin dentin walls. (c) 2012 Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers (SPIE). [DOI: 10.1117/1.JBO.17.1.015006]

Comparing oxygen transfer performance between three membrane oxygenators: effect of temperature changes during cardiopulmonary bypass

Recently, a new oxygenator (Dideco 903 [D903], Dideco, Mirandola, Italy) has been introduced to the perfusion community, and we set about testing its oxygen transfer performance and then comparing it to two other models. This evaluation was based on the comparison between oxygen transfer slope, gas phase arterial oxygen gradients, degree of blood shunting, maximum oxygen transfer, and diffusing capacity calculated for each membrane. Sixty patients were randomized into three groups of oxygenators (Dideco 703 [D703], Dideco; D903; and Quadrox, Jostra Medizintechnik AG, Hirrlingen, Germany) including 40/20 M/F of 68.6 +/- 11.3 years old, with a body weight of 71.5 +/- 12.1 kg, a body surface area (BSA) of 1.84 +/- 0.3 m(2), and a theoretical blood flow rate (index 2.4 times BSA) of 4.4 +/- 0.7 L/min. The maximum oxygen transfer (VO(2)) values were 313 mL O(2)/min (D703), 579 mL O(2)/min (D903), and 400 mL O(2)/min (Quadrox), with the D903 being the most superior (P < 0.05). Oxygen (O(2)) gradients were 320 mm Hg (D703), 235 mm Hg (D903), and 247 mm Hg (Quadrox), meaning D903 and Quadrox are more efficient versus the D703 (P < 0.05). Shunt fraction (Qs/Qt) and diffusing capacity (DmO(2)) were comparable (P = ns). Diffusing capacity values indexed to BSA (DmO(2)/m(2)) were 0.15 mL O(2)/min/mm Hg/m(2) (D703), 0.2 mL O(2)/min/mm Hg/m(2) (D903), and 0.18 mL O(2)/min/mm Hg/m(2) (Quadrox) with D903 outperforming D703 (P < 0.0005). During hypothermia (32.0 +/- 0.3 degrees C), there was a lower absolute and relative VO(2 )for all three oxygenators (P = ns). The O(2) gradients, DmO(2) and DmO(2)/m(2), were significantly lower for all oxygenators (P < 0.01). Also, Qs/Qt significantly rose for all oxygenators (P < 0.01). The oxygen transfer curve is characteristic to each oxygenator type and represents a tool to quantify oxygenator performance. Using this parameter, we demonstrated significant differences among commercially available oxygenators. However, all three oxygenators are considered to meet the oxygen needs of the patients.