A silviculture-oriented spatio-temporal model for germination in Pinus pinea L. in the Spanish Northern Plateau based on a direct seeding experiment

Natural regeneration in Pinus pinea stands commonly fails throughout the Spanish Northern Plateau under current intensive regeneration treatments. As a result, extensive direct seeding is commonly conducted to guarantee regeneration occurrence. In a period of rationalization of the resources devoted to forest management, this kind of techniques may become unaffordable. Given that the climatic and stand factors driving germination remain unknown, tools are required to understand the process and temper the use of direct seeding. In this study, the spatio-temporal pattern of germination of P. pinea was modelled with those purposes. The resulting findings will allow us to (1) determine the main ecological variables involved in germination in the species and (2) infer adequate silvicultural alternatives. The modelling approach focuses on covariates which are readily available to forest managers. A two-step nonlinear mixed model was fitted to predict germination occurrence and abundance in P. pinea under varying climatic, environmental and stand conditions, based on a germination data set covering a 5-year period. The results obtained reveal that the process is primarily driven by climate variables. Favourable conditions for germination commonly occur in fall although the optimum window is often narrow and may not occur at all in some years. At spatial level, it would appear that germination is facilitated by high stand densities, suggesting that current felling intensity should be reduced. In accordance with other studies on P. pinea dispersal, it seems that denser stands during the regeneration period will reduce the present dependence on direct seeding.

Inferring lung cancer risk factor patterns through joint Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis

Background: Preventing risk factor exposure is vital to reduce the high burden from lung cancer. The leading risk factor for developing lung cancer is tobacco smoking. In Australia, despite apparent success in reducing smoking prevalence, there is limited information on small area patterns and small area temporal trends. We sought to estimate spatio-temporal patterns for lung cancer risk factors using routinely collected population-based cancer data. Methods: The analysis used a Bayesian shared component spatio-temporal model, with male and female lung cancer included separately. The shared component reflected exposure to lung cancer risk factors, and was modelled over 477 statistical local areas (SLAs) and 15 years in Queensland, Australia. Analyses were also run adjusting for area-level socioeconomic disadvantage, Indigenous population composition, or remoteness. Results: Strong spatial patterns were observed in the underlying risk factor exposure for both males (median Relative Risk (RR) across SLAs compared to the Queensland average ranged from 0.48-2.00) and females (median RR range across SLAs 0.53-1.80), with high exposure observed in many remote areas. Strong temporal trends were also observed. Males showed a decrease in the underlying risk across time, while females showed an increase followed by a decrease in the final two years. These patterns were largely consistent across each SLA. The high underlying risk estimates observed among disadvantaged, remote and indigenous areas decreased after adjustment, particularly among females. Conclusion: The modelled underlying exposure appeared to reflect previous smoking prevalence, with a lag period of around 30 years, consistent with the time taken to develop lung cancer. The consistent temporal trends in lung cancer risk factors across small areas support the hypothesis that past interventions have been equally effective across the state. However, this also means that spatial inequalities have remained unaddressed, highlighting the potential for future interventions, particularly among remote areas.

Practical Large-Scale Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Particulate Matter Concentrations

The last two decades have seen intense scientific and regulatory interest in the health effects of particulate matter (PM). Influential epidemiological studies that characterize chronic exposure of individuals rely on monitoring data that are sparse in space and time, so they often assign the same exposure to participants in large geographic areas and across time. We estimate monthly PM during 1988-2002 in a large spatial domain for use in studying health effects in the Nurses' Health Study. We develop a conceptually simple spatio-temporal model that uses a rich set of covariates. The model is used to estimate concentrations of PM10 for the full time period and PM2.5 for a subset of the period. For the earlier part of the period, 1988-1998, few PM2.5 monitors were operating, so we develop a simple extension to the model that represents PM2.5 conditionally on PM10 model predictions. In the epidemiological analysis, model predictions of PM10 are more strongly associated with health effects than when using simpler approaches to estimate exposure. Our modeling approach supports the application in estimating both fine-scale and large-scale spatial heterogeneity and capturing space-time interaction through the use of monthly-varying spatial surfaces. At the same time, the model is computationally feasible, implementable with standard software, and readily understandable to the scientific audience. Despite simplifying assumptions, the model has good predictive performance and uncertainty characterization.

Spatio-temporal modeling of data imputation for daily rainfall series in homogeneous zones.

Spatio-temporal modelling is an area of increasing importance in which models and methods have often been developed to deal with specific applications. In this study, a spatio-temporal model was used to estimate daily rainfall data. Rainfall records from several weather stations, obtained from the Agritempo system for two climatic homogeneous zones, were used. Rainfall values obtained for two fixed dates (January 1 and May 1, 2012) using the spatio-temporal model were compared with the geostatisticals techniques of ordinary kriging and ordinary cokriging with altitude as auxiliary variable. The spatio-temporal model was more than 17% better at producing estimates of daily precipitation compared to kriging and cokriging in the first zone and more than 18% in the second zone. The spatio-temporal model proved to be a versatile technique, adapting to different seasons and dates.

An additive model for spatio-temporal smoothing of cancer mortality rates

In this paper, a Bayesian hierarchical model is used to anaylze the female breast cancer mortality rates for the State of Missouri from 1969 through 2001. The logit transformations of the mortality rates are assumed to be linear over the time with additive spatial and age effects as intercepts and slopes. Objective priors of the hierarchical model are explored. The Bayesian estimates are quite robustness in terms change of the hyperparamaters. The spatial correlations are appeared in both intercepts and slopes.

On the order of the fractional Laplacian in determining the spatio-temporal evolution of a space-fractional model of cardiac electrophysiology

Space-fractional operators have been used with success in a variety of practical applications to describe transport processes in media characterised by spatial connectivity properties and high structural heterogeneity altering the classical laws of diffusion. This study provides a systematic investigation of the spatio-temporal effects of a space-fractional model in cardiac electrophysiology. We consider a simplified model of electrical pulse propagation through cardiac tissue, namely the monodomain formulation of the Beeler-Reuter cell model on insulated tissue fibres, and obtain a space-fractional modification of the model by using the spectral definition of the one-dimensional continuous fractional Laplacian. The spectral decomposition of the fractional operator allows us to develop an efficient numerical method for the space-fractional problem. Particular attention is paid to the role played by the fractional operator in determining the solution behaviour and to the identification of crucial differences between the non-fractional and the fractional cases. We find a positive linear dependence of the depolarization peak height and a power law decay of notch and dome peak amplitudes for decreasing orders of the fractional operator. Furthermore, we establish a quadratic relationship in conduction velocity, and quantify the increasingly wider action potential foot and more pronounced dispersion of action potential duration, as the fractional order is decreased. A discussion of the physiological interpretation of the presented findings is made.

Spatio-Temporal Scanning and Statistical Test of the Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) Model Using Australian Earthquake Data

The Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) preceding earthquakes with magnitude above 5 in Australia that occurred during the last 20 years was analyzed to test the Critical Point Hypothesis. Twelve earthquakes in the catalog were chosen based on a criterion for the number of nearby events. Results show that seven sequences with numerous events recorded leading up to the main earthquake exhibited accelerating moment release. Two occurred near in time and space to other earthquakes preceded by AM R. The remaining three sequences had very few events in the catalog so the lack of AMR detected in the analysis may be related to catalog incompleteness. Spatio-temporal scanning of AMR parameters shows that 80% of the areas in which AMR occurred experienced large events. In areas of similar background seismicity with no large events, 10 out of 12 cases exhibit no AMR, and two others are false alarms where AMR was observed but no large event followed. The relationship between AMR and Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) was studied. Both methods predict similar critical region sizes, however, the critical point time using AMR is slightly earlier than the time of the critical point LURR anomaly.

A Neural Network Model of Spatio-Temporal Pattern Recognition, Recall and Timing

This paper describes the design of a self~organizing, hierarchical neural network model of unsupervised serial learning. The model learns to recognize, store, and recall sequences of unitized patterns, using either short-term memory (STM) or both STM and long-term memory (LTM) mechanisms. Timing information is learned and recall {both from STM and from LTM) is performed with a learned rhythmical structure. The network, bearing similarities with ART (Carpenter & Grossberg 1987a), learns to map temporal sequences to unitized patterns, which makes it suitable for hierarchical operation. It is therefore capable of self-organizing codes for sequences of sequences. The capacity is only limited by the number of nodes provided. Selected simulation results are reported to illustrate system properties.

Spatio-Temporal Rich Model For Motion Vector Steganalysis

We propose a spatio-temporal rich model of motion vector planes as a part of a full steganalytic system against motion vector based steganography. Superior detection accuracy of the rich model over the previous methods has been lately demonstrated for digital images in both spatial and DCT domain. It has not been heretofore used for detection of motion vector steganography. We also introduced a transformation so as to extend the feature set with temporal residuals. We carried out the tests along with most recent motion vector steganalysis and steganography methods. Test results show that the proposed model delivers an outstanding performance compared to the previous methods.

Spatio-temporal Rich Model Based Video Steganalysis on Cross Sections of Motion Vector Planes

A rich model based motion vector steganalysis benefiting from both temporal and spatial correlations of motion vectors is proposed in this work. The proposed steganalysis method has a substantially superior detection accuracy than the previous methods, even the targeted ones. The improvement in detection accuracy lies in several novel approaches introduced in this work. Firstly, it is shown that there is a strong correlation, not only spatially but also temporally, among neighbouring motion vectors for longer distances. Therefore, temporal motion vector dependency along side the spatial dependency is utilized for rigorous motion vector steganalysis. Secondly, unlike the filters previously used, which were heuristically designed against a specific motion vector steganography, a diverse set of many filters which can capture aberrations introduced by various motion vector steganography methods is used. The variety and also the number of the filter kernels are substantially more than that of used in previous ones. Besides that, filters up to fifth order are employed whereas the previous methods use at most second order filters. As a result of these, the proposed system captures various decorrelations in a wide spatio-temporal range and provides a better cover model. The proposed method is tested against the most prominent motion vector steganalysis and steganography methods. To the best knowledge of the authors, the experiments section has the most comprehensive tests in motion vector steganalysis field including five stego and seven steganalysis methods. Test results show that the proposed method yields around 20% detection accuracy increase in low payloads and 5% in higher payloads.

Spatio-Temporal Event Model for Cyber-Physical Systems

The emerging Cyber-Physical Systems (CPSs) are envisioned to integrate computation, communication and control with the physical world. Therefore, CPS requires close interactions between the cyber and physical worlds both in time and space. These interactions are usually governed by events, which occur in the physical world and should autonomously be reflected in the cyber-world, and actions, which are taken by the CPS as a result of detection of events and certain decision mechanisms. Both event detection and action decision operations should be performed accurately and timely to guarantee temporal and spatial correctness. This calls for a flexible architecture and task representation framework to analyze CP operations. In this paper, we explore the temporal and spatial properties of events, define a novel CPS architecture, and develop a layered spatiotemporal event model for CPS. The event is represented as a function of attribute-based, temporal, and spatial event conditions. Moreover, logical operators are used to combine different types of event conditions to capture composite events. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first event model that captures the heterogeneous characteristics of CPS for formal temporal and spatial analysis.

Spatio-temporal scanning and statistical test of the accelerating moment release (AMR) model using Australian earthquake data

The Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) preceding earthquakes with magnitude above 5 in Australia that occurred during the last 20 years was analyzed to test the Critical Point Hypothesis. Twelve earthquakes in the catalog were chosen based on a criterion for the number of nearby events. Results show that seven sequences with numerous events recorded leading up to the main earthquake exhibited accelerating moment release. Two occurred near in time and space to other earthquakes preceded by AM R. The remaining three sequences had very few events in the catalog so the lack of AMR detected in the analysis may be related to catalog incompleteness. Spatio-temporal scanning of AMR parameters shows that 80% of the areas in which AMR occurred experienced large events. In areas of similar background seismicity with no large events, 10 out of 12 cases exhibit no AMR, and two others are false alarms where AMR was observed but no large event followed. The relationship between AMR and Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) was studied. Both methods predict similar critical region sizes, however, the critical point time using AMR is slightly earlier than the time of the critical point LURR anomaly.