Investment decision-making under risk (reliability) and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

Risks and uncertainties are inevitable in engineering projects and infrastructure investments. Decisions about investment in infrastructure such as for maintenance, rehabilitation and construction works can pose risks, and may generate significant impacts on social, cultural, environmental and other related issues. This report presents the results of a literature review of current practice in identifying, quantifying and managing risks and predicting impacts as part of the planning and assessment process for infrastructure investment proposals. In assessing proposals for investment in infrastructure, it is necessary to consider social, cultural and environmental risks and impacts to the overall community, as well as financial risks to the investor. The report defines and explains the concept of risk and uncertainty, and describes the three main methodology approaches to the analysis of risk and uncertainty in investment planning for infrastructure, viz examining a range of scenarios or options, sensitivity analysis, and a statistical probability approach, listed here in order of increasing merit and complexity. Forecasts of costs, benefits and community impacts of infrastructure are recognised as central aspects of developing and assessing investment proposals. Increasingly complex modelling techniques are being used for investment evaluation. The literature review identified forecasting errors as the major cause of risk. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. The report contains a summary of the broad nature of decision-making tools used by governments and other organisations in Australia, New Zealand, Europe and North America, and shows their overall approach to risk assessment in assessing public infrastructure proposals. While there are established techniques to quantify financial and economic risks, quantification is far less developed for political, social and environmental risks and impacts. For risks that cannot be readily quantified, assessment techniques commonly include classification or rating systems for likelihood and consequence. The report outlines the system used by the Australian Defence Organisation and in the Australian Standard on risk management. After each risk is identified and quantified or rated, consideration can be given to reducing the risk, and managing any remaining risk as part of the scope of the project. The literature review identified use of risk mapping techniques by a North American chemical company and by the Australian Defence Organisation. This literature review has enabled a risk assessment strategy to be developed, and will underpin an examination of the feasibility of developing a risk assessment capability using a probability approach.

Electroreduction of N-methylphthalimide in room temperature ionic liquids under insonated and silent conditions

The selective electroreduction N-methylphthalimide to 3-hydroxy-2-methyl-isoindolin-1-one has been performed in ionic liquids using phenol as a proton donor under silent and ultrasonic conditions. A significant increase in the rate of electroreduction is shown using ultrasonic activation and in addition high current efficiencies were observed. Some decomposition of the ionic liquid was found to have occurred under exposure to ultrasound. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dilute acid hydrolysis of cellulose and cellulosic bio-waste using a microwave reactor system

The dilute acid hydrolysis of grass and cellulose with phosphoric acid was undertaken in a microwave reactor system. The experimental data and reaction kinetic analysis indicate that this is a potential process for cellulose and hemi-cellulose hydrolysis, due to a rapid hydrolysis reaction at moderate temperatures. The optimum conditions for grass hydrolysis were found to be 2.5% phosphoric acid at a temperature of 175 degrees C. It was found that sugar degradation occurred at acid concentrations greater than 2.5% (v/v) and temperatures greater than 175 degrees C. In a further series of experiments, the kinetics of dilute acid hydrolysis of cellulose was investigated varying phosphoric acid concentration and reaction temperatures. The experimental data indicate that the use of microwave technology can successfully facilitate dilute acid hydrolysis of cellulose allowing high yields of glucose in short reaction times. The optimum conditions gave a yield of 90% glucose. A pseudo-homogeneous consecutive first order reaction was assumed and the reaction rate constants were calculated as: k(1) = 0.0813 s(-1); k(2) = 0.0075 s(-1), which compare favourably with reaction rate constants found in conventional non-microwave reaction systems. The kinetic analysis would indicate that the primary advantages of employing microwave heating were to: achieve a high rate constant at moderate temperatures: and to prevent 'hot spot' formation within the reactor, which would have cause localised degradation of glucose.

Conflict, Transformation, and Former Loyalist Paramilitary Prisoners in Northern Ireland

Following the 1998 Belfast Agreement in Northern Ireland, levels of paramilitary violence have declined substantially. Among loyalists, the Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF) and associated Red Hand Commando (RHC) have formally renounced violence, and dissolved their 'military structures', and perhaps the most reticent of all of the major paramilitary groupings, the Ulster Defence Association (UDA), has taken on board the central tenets of conflict transformation, and 'stood down' all of its 'active service units' in the Ulster Freedom Fighters (UFF). Thus, paramilitary violence now is mainly confined to the activities of 'dissident' republican groups, notably the Real and Continuity IRAs, although low-level sectarian violence remains a problem. Such dramatic societal and political change has resulted in a focus on the roles of formal party political leadership as agents of social change. This gaze, however, tends to obscure other important events such as the efforts, structures and approaches taken at the grassroots level to uphold and sustain conflict transformation and to maintain a reduction in violence. This article provides analysis of the role played by former loyalist paramilitary combatants in conflict transformation, and draws on material obtained through significant access to those former paramilitaries engaged in processes of societal shifts. In both personal and structural terms there is evidence of former combatants working to diminish the political tensions that remain as a result of the long-term inter-communal hostility developed across decades of violence and conflict.

Efficient modelling and optimisation of hybrid multilayered plates subject to ballistic impact

Among the key challenges present in the modelling and optimisation of composite structures against impact is the computational expense involved in setting up accurate simulations of the impact event and then performing the iterations required to optimise the designs. It is of more interest to find good designs given the limitations of the resources and time available rather than the best possible design. In this paper, low cost but sufficiently accurate finite element (FE) models were generated in LS Dyna for several experimentally characterised materials by semi-automating the modelling process and using existing material models. These models were then used by an optimisation algorithm to generate new hybrid offspring, leading to minimum weight and/or cost designs from a selection of isotropic metals, polymers and orthotropic fibre-reinforced laminates that countered a specified impact threat. Experimental validation of the optimal designs thus identified was then successfully carried out using a single stage gas gun. With sufficient computational hardware, the techniques developed in this pilot study can further utilise fine meshes, equations of state and sophisticated material models, so that optimal hybrid systems can be identified from a wide range of materials, designs and threats.

A bridge-monitoring tool based on bridge and vehicle accelerations

Previous research on damage detection based on the response of a structure to a moving load has reported decay in accuracy with increasing load speed. Using a 3D vehicle – bridge interaction model, this paper shows that the area under the filtered acceleration response of the bridge increases with increasing damage, even at highway load speeds. Once a datum reading is established, the area under subsequent readings can be monitored and compared with the baseline reading, if an increase is observed it may indicate the presence of damage. The sensitivity of the proposed approach to road roughness and noise is tested in several damage scenarios. The possibility of identifying damage in the bridge by analysing the acceleration response of the vehicle traversing it is also investigated. While vehicle acceleration is shown to be more sensitive to road roughness and noise and therefore less reliable than direct bridge measurements, damage is successfully identified in favourable scenarios.

Dup discourses on violence and their impact on the northern ireland peace process

This paper analyses the Democratic Unionist Party's (DUP) discourses about paramilitary violence in Northern Ireland. Drawing on narrative analysis of DUP discourses reported in Northern Ireland's largest unionist newspaper, the News Letter (1998-2006), it explores the relationship between the party's identity, its discourses about republican and loyalist paramilitaries, and the impact of these words on the DUP's electoral success and on the peace process. The paper argues that these discourses may haunt the progress of peace-building, not least because the DUP will find it hard to disentangle itself from a history of scepticism and nay-saying even as it takes a leading role in a devolved Executive designed by an Agreement it longscorned.

Assessment of the impact speed and angle conditions for the EN1317 barrier tests

Roadside safety barriers designs are tested with passenger cars in Europe using standard EN1317 in which the impact angle for normal, high and very high containment level tests is 20°. In comparison to EN1317, the US standard MASH has higher impact angles for cars and pickups (25°) and different vehicle masses. Studies in Europe (RISER) and the US have shown values for the 90th percentile impact angle of 30°–34°. Thus, the limited evidence available suggests that the 20° angle applied in EN 1317 may be too low.
The first goal of this paper is to use the US NCHRP database (Project NCHRP 17–22) to assess the distribution of impact angle and collision speed in recent ROR accidents. Second, based on the findings of the statistical analysis and on analysis of impact angles and speeds in the literature, an LS-DYNA finite element analysis was carried out to evaluate the normal containment level of concrete barriers in non-standard collisions. The FE model was validated against a crash test of a portable concrete barrier carried out at the UK Transport Research Laboratory (TRL).
The accident data analysis for run-off road accidents indicates that a substantial proportion of accidents have an impact angle in excess of 20°. The baseline LS-DYNA model showed good comparison with experimental acceleration severity index (ASI) data and the parametric analysis indicates a very significant influence of impact angle on ASI. Accordingly, a review of European run-off road accidents and the configuration of EN 1317 should be performed.

Reliability and quality of water isotope data collected with a lowbudget rain collector

RATIONALELow-budget rain collectors for water isotope analysis, such as the `ball-in-funnel type collector' (BiFC), are widely used in studies on stable water isotopes of rain. To date, however, an experimental quality assessment of such devices in relation to climatic factors does not exist. METHODSWe used Cavity Ring-Down Spectrometry (CRDS) to quantify the effects of evaporation on the O-18 values of reference water under controlled conditions as a function of the elapsed time between rainfall and collection for isotope analysis, the sample volume and the relative humidity (RH: 31% and 67%; 25 degrees C). The climate chamber conditions were chosen to reflect the warm and dry end of field conditions that favor evaporative enrichment (EE). We also tested the performance of the BiFC in the field, and compared our H-2/O-18 data obtained by isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) with those from the Swiss National Network for the Observation of Isotopes in the Water Cycle (ISOT). RESULTSThe EE increased with time, with a 1 increase in the O-18 values after 10days (RH: 25%; 25 degrees C; 35mL (corresponding to a 5mm rain event); p <0.001). The sample volume strongly affected the EE (max. value +1.5 parts per thousand for 7mL samples (i.e., 1mm rain events) after 72h at 31% and 67% RH; p <0.001), whereas the relative humidity had no significant effect. Using the BiFC in the field, we obtained very tight relationships of the H-2/O-18 values (r(2) 0.95) for three sites along an elevational gradient, not significantly different from that of the next ISOT station. CONCLUSIONSSince the chosen experimental conditions were extreme compared with the field conditions, it was concluded that the BiFC is a highly reliable and inexpensive collector of rainwater for isotope analysis. Copyright (c) 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Reliability and quality in the area of statistical thinking in Engineering

There is remarkable growing concern about the quality control at the time, which has led to the search for methods capable of addressing effectively the reliability analysis as part of the Statistic. Managers, researchers and Engineers must understand that 'statistical thinking' is not just a set of statistical tools. They should start considering 'statistical thinking' from a 'system', which means, developing systems that meet specific statistical tools and other methodologies for an activity. The aim of this article is to encourage them (engineers, researchers and managers) to develop a new way of thinking.

The beta distribution in reliability and quality control /

Bibliography: leaves 41-43.