Testing the optimality of aggregate consumption decisions: is there rule-of-thumb behavior?

Consumption is an important macroeconomic aggregate, being about 70% of GNP. Finding sub-optimal behavior in consumption decisions casts a serious doubt on whether optimizing behavior is applicable on an economy-wide scale, which, in turn, challenge whether it is applicable at all. This paper has several contributions to the literature on consumption optimality. First, we provide a new result on the basic rule-of-thumb regression, showing that it is observational equivalent to the one obtained in a well known optimizing real-business-cycle model. Second, for rule-of-thumb tests based on the Asset-Pricing Equation, we show that the omission of the higher-order term in the log-linear approximation yields inconsistent estimates when lagged observables are used as instruments. However, these are exactly the instruments that have been traditionally used in this literature. Third, we show that nonlinear estimation of a system of N Asset-Pricing Equations can be done efficiently even if the number of asset returns (N) is high vis-a-vis the number of time-series observations (T). We argue that efficiency can be restored by aggregating returns into a single measure that fully captures intertemporal substitution. Indeed, we show that there is no reason why return aggregation cannot be performed in the nonlinear setting of the Pricing Equation, since the latter is a linear function of individual returns. This forms the basis of a new test of rule-of-thumb behavior, which can be viewed as testing for the importance of rule-of-thumb consumers when the optimizing agent holds an equally-weighted portfolio or a weighted portfolio of traded assets. Using our setup, we find no signs of either rule-of-thumb behavior for U.S. consumers or of habit-formation in consumption decisions in econometric tests. Indeed, we show that the simple representative agent model with a CRRA utility is able to explain the time series data on consumption and aggregate returns. There, the intertemporal discount factor is significant and ranges from 0.956 to 0.969 while the relative risk-aversion coefficient is precisely estimated ranging from 0.829 to 1.126. There is no evidence of rejection in over-identifying-restriction tests.

A simple rule of thumb for elegant prehension

Reaching out to grasp an object (prehension) is a deceptively elegant and skilled behavior. The movement prior to object contact can be described as having two components [1], the movement of the hand to an appropriate location for gripping the object, the transport component, and the opening and closing of the aperture between the fingers as they prepare to grip the target, the grasp component. The grasp component is sensitive to the size of the object, so that a larger grasp aperture is formed for wider objects [1]; the maximum grasp aperture (MGA) is a little wider than the width of the target object and occurs later in the movement for larger objects [1, 2]. We present a simple model that can account for the temporal relationship between the transport and grasp components, We report the results of an experiment providing empirical support for our rule of thumb. The model provides a simple, but plausible, account of a neural control strategy that has been the center of debate over the last two decades.

A NOVEL AND SIMPLE RULE OF THUMB FOR MULTIPLICITY CONTROL IN EQUIVALENCE TESTING USING TWO ONE-SIDED TESTS

Equivalence testing is growing in use in scientific research outside of its traditional role in the drug approval process. Largely due to its ease of use and recommendation from the United States Food and Drug Administration guidance, the most common statistical method for testing (bio)equivalence is the two one-sided tests procedure (TOST). Like classical point-null hypothesis testing, TOST is subject to multiplicity concerns as more comparisons are made. In this manuscript, a condition that bounds the family-wise error rate (FWER) using TOST is given. This condition then leads to a simple solution for controlling the FWER. Specifically, we demonstrate that if all pairwise comparisons of k independent groups are being evaluated for equivalence, then simply scaling the nominal Type I error rate down by (k - 1) is sufficient to maintain the family-wise error rate at the desired value or less. The resulting rule is much less conservative than the equally simple Bonferroni correction. An example of equivalence testing in a non drug-development setting is given.

Rule of law or rule of thumb? A new Copenhagen mechanism for the EU. CEPS Policy Brief No. 303, 20 November 2013

This Policy Brief synthesises the main research findings and policy recommendations presented in the CEPS e-book entitled The Triangular Relationship between Fundamental Rights, Democracy and Rule of Law: Towards an EU Copenhagen Mechanism” (http://www.ceps.eu/book/triangular-relationship-between-fundamental-righ...). The authors examine the ways in which the European Union could strengthen and develop its competences in the assessment of member states’ fundamental rights, democracy and rule of law commitments. They argue that a strong political impetus is needed at Union level in order to set up a new supervisory “Copenhagen Mechanism” that would effectively and periodically evaluate member states’ compliance with democratic rule of law with fundamental rights on the basis of independent academic expertise, and by ensuring a high level of democratic accountability and judicial oversight at European levels. The Policy Brief also aims at summarising CEPS’ contribution to the upcoming Conference “Assises de la Justice: Shaping Justice Policies in Europe for the Years to Come” organised by the European Commission in Brussels on 21-22 November 2013.

Under the rule of thumb : battered women and the administration of justice /

Item 288-A

The Rule of Thumb: A Five Year Overview of Domestic Violence in South Carolina

This Powerpoint presentation gives a five year statistical overview of domestic violence in South Carolina. It covers the years 2004 through 2008.

Corruption, income, and rule of law: empirical evidence from developing and developed economies

This article presents an empirical analysis based on cross-country data concerned with two points regarding corruption: (i) its effects on income; and (ii) how to mitigate corruption. The findings can be highlighted in two points. Firstly the idea that corruption is intrinsically connected with income is confirmed. Secondly, the traditional argument that an increase in rule of law represents a good strategy in the fight against corruption is valid for developing countries. Furthermore, this study reveals that the search for increasing the human development index represents a rule of thumb for high levels of income and to control corruption.

Testing consumption optimality using aggregate data

The objective of this paper is to test for optimality of consumption decisions at the aggregate level (representative consumer) taking into account popular deviations from the canonical CRRA utility model rule of thumb and habit. First, we show that rule-of-thumb behavior in consumption is observational equivalent to behavior obtained by the optimizing model of King, Plosser and Rebelo (Journal of Monetary Economics, 1988), casting doubt on how reliable standard rule-of-thumb tests are. Second, although Carroll (2001) and Weber (2002) have criticized the linearization and testing of euler equations for consumption, we provide a deeper critique directly applicable to current rule-of-thumb tests. Third, we show that there is no reason why return aggregation cannot be performed in the nonlinear setting of the Asset-Pricing Equation, since the latter is a linear function of individual returns. Fourth, aggregation of the nonlinear euler equation forms the basis of a novel test of deviations from the canonical CRRA model of consumption in the presence of rule-of-thumb and habit behavior. We estimated 48 euler equations using GMM, with encouraging results vis-a-vis the optimality of consumption decisions. At the 5% level, we only rejected optimality twice out of 48 times. Empirical-test results show that we can still rely on the canonical CRRA model so prevalent in macroeconomics: out of 24 regressions, we found the rule-of-thumb parameter to be statistically signi cant at the 5% level only twice, and the habit ƴ parameter to be statistically signi cant on four occasions. The main message of this paper is that proper return aggregation is critical to study intertemporal substitution in a representative-agent framework. In this case, we fi nd little evidence of lack of optimality in consumption decisions, and deviations of the CRRA utility model along the lines of rule-of-thumb behavior and habit in preferences represent the exception, not the rule.

Testing consumption optimality using aggregate data

This paper tests the optimality of consumption decisions at the aggregate level taking into account popular deviations from the canonical constant-relative-risk-aversion (CRRA) utility function model-rule of thumb and habit. First, based on the critique in Carroll (2001) and Weber (2002) of the linearization and testing strategies using euler equations for consumption, we provide extensive empirical evidence of their inappropriateness - a drawback for standard rule- of-thumb tests. Second, we propose a novel approach to test for consumption optimality in this context: nonlinear estimation coupled with return aggregation, where rule-of-thumb behavior and habit are special cases of an all encompassing model. We estimated 48 euler equations using GMM. At the 5% level, we only rejected optimality twice out of 48 times. Moreover, out of 24 regressions, we found the rule-of-thumb parameter to be statistically significant only twice. Hence, lack of optimality in consumption decisions represent the exception, not the rule. Finally, we found the habit parameter to be statistically significant on four occasions out of 24.

Chairmanship in ASEAN+3:A Shared Rule of Behavior

ASEAN+3 is a cooperative framework among ASEAN members and the countries of Japan, China and Korea. It functions at the senior official, ministerial and summit levels. This article concerns how institutions in ASEAN+3 affect development of the direction and nature of this framework. ASEAN+3 is regarded as a loose framework that has regularized meetings as its main activity but has no organizational settings such as the secretariat. Little institutional analysis has been conducted on the development of this framework. This article introduces 'Chairmanship' as an analytical concept in which the chair or chairing member plays an important role in preparing and managing meetings. 'Chairmanship' is therefore an institution with an organizational element. It is also a shared rule of behavior among member states in that the chair's roles are not explicitly written in documents. Thus, it can be argued that the ASEAN+3 framework has an institution with an organizational element that affects development of its characteristics.

The role of self-efficacy in predicting rule-following behaviors in shelters for homeless youth: A test of the theory of planned behavior

Through a prospective study of 70 youths staying at homeless-youth shelters, the authors tested the utility of I. Ajzen's (1991) theory of planned behavior (TPB), by comparing the constructs of self-efficacy with perceived behavioral control (PBC), in predicting people's rule-following behavior during shelter stays. They performed the 1st wave of data collection through a questionnaire assessing the standard TPB components of attitudes, subjective norms, PBC, and behavioral intentions in relation to following the set rules at youth shelters. Further, they distinguished between items assessing PBC (or perceived control) and those reflecting self-efficacy (or perceived difficulty). At the completion of each youth's stay at the shelter, shelter staff rated the rule adherence for that participant. Regression analyses revealed some support for the TPB in that subjective norm was a significant predictor of intentions. However, self-efficacy emerged as the strongest predictor of intentions and was the only significant predictor of rule-following behavior. Thus, the results of the present study indicate the possibility that self-efficacy is integral to predicting rule adherence within this context and reaffirm the importance of incorporating notions of people's perceived ease or difficulty in performing actions in models of attitude-behavior prediction.

THE ROLE OF PUNISHMENT IN MANAGING DISCIPLINE: Best Practices and Lessons Learned

Now more than ever Capeverdean teachers are faced with student acts of violence which reverberate to the outer limits of our society at large. These situations have caused teachers to reflect upon their roles as educator and “promoter” of discipline. Some are even questioning their effectiveness in this process as they are challenged to discover if they are in the right place. How do teachers manage discipline? In the past, punishment was the rule of thumb and to some extent remains the measure of choice. But is this the most effective form of behavior management? What is the relationship between punishment and corrective behavior? This paper will discuss the affect that punishment has on the learning process as it attempts to suggest strategies in managing discipline with the objective of creating an effective learning environment.