O impacto das intervenções do Banco Central Brasileiro no mercado cambial: uma análise de efetividade sobre a volatilidade

Desde a adoção do sistema de câmbio flutuante pelo Banco Central do Brasil, tanto a autoridade monetária quanto o governo brasileiro têm instituído medidas convencionais e não convencionais de intervenção no mercado de câmbio. Dentre essas medidas, salientam-se as compras e vendas de dólares no mercado de spot e derivativos, cujas finalidades precípuas seriam a tentativa de estabilizar os mercados em situação de “stress” e suavizar uma determinada tendência de valorização ou desvalorização da moeda brasileira. O presente trabalho analisa os efeitos de referidas intervenções sobre a volatilidade na moeda brasileira. Utilizamos modelos econométricos da família ARCH (Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) com o intuito de se averiguar o efeito sobre a volatilidade de curto e longo prazo, inclusive com metodologias semelhantes às empregadas em trabalhos direcionados a outras economias emergentes. Com o propósito de se estudar o efeito sinalizador das intervenções, foram utilizadas regressões simples com dados de volatilidade implícita e risk reversal do mercado de opções do dólar/real. Concluiu-se pela não relevância dos efeitos das intervenções sobre o nível da taxa de câmbio. No que concerne às volatilidades de curto e longo prazo, verificou-se que as vendas de dólares aumentam ambas as volatilidades, porém, quanto às compras, estas não apresentaram significância. No que se refere aos efeitos sinalizadores, via volatilidade implícita e risk reversal, estes também não expuseram relevância. Enfim, o que talvez possa consistir em fundamento para a não relevância dessas intervenções é o fato de o Brasil se consubstanciar em uma economia emergente e com menor credibilidade na condução de suas políticas monetárias.

Rapid tryptophan depletion improves decision-making cognition in healthy humans without affecting reversal learning or set shifting

Rapid tryptophan (Trp) depletion (RTD) has been reported to cause deterioration in the quality of decision making and impaired reversal learning, while leaving attentional set shifting relatively unimpaired. These findings have been attributed to a more powerful neuromodulatory effect of reduced 5-HT on ventral prefrontal cortex (PFC) than on dorsolateral PFC. In view of the limited number of reports, the aim of this study was to independently replicate these findings using the same test paradigms. Healthy human subjects without a personal or family history of affective disorder were assessed using a computerized decision making/gambling task and the CANTAB ID/ED attentional set-shifting task under Trp-depleted (n=17; nine males and eight females) or control (n=15; seven males and eight females) conditions, in a double-blind, randomized, parallel-group design. There was no significant effect of RTD on set shifting, reversal learning, risk taking, impulsivity, or subjective mood. However, RTD significantly altered decision making such that depleted subjects chose the more likely of two possible outcomes significantly more often than controls. This is in direct contrast to the previous report that subjects chose the more likely outcome significantly less often following RTD. In the terminology of that report, our result may be interpreted as improvement in the quality of decision making following RTD. This contrast between studies highlights the variability in the cognitive effects of RTD between apparently similar groups of healthy subjects, and suggests the need for future RTD studies to control for a range of personality, family history, and genetic factors that may be associated with 5-HT function.

Leprosy reactions: coinfections as a possible risk factor

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to determine the frequency of coinfections in leprosy patients and whether there is a relationship between the presence of coinfections and the development of leprosy reactional episodes. METHOD: A cross-sectional study based on an analysis of the medical records of the patients who were treated at the Leprosy Clinics of the Ribeirao Preto Medical School, University of Sao Paulo, was conducted from 2000 to 2010. Information was recorded regarding the age, sex, clinical status, WHO classification, treatment, presence of reactions and coinfections. Focal and systemic infections were diagnosed based on the history, physical examination, and laboratory tests. Multinomial logistic regression was used to evaluate the associations between the leprosy reactions and the patients' gender, age, WHO classification and coinfections. RESULTS: Two hundred twenty-five patients were studied. Most of these patients were males (155/225 = 68.8%) of an average age of 49.31 +/- 15.92 years, and the most prevalent clinical manifestation was the multibacillary (MB) form (n = 146), followed by the paucibacillary (PB) form (n = 79). Erythema nodosum leprosum (ENL) was more prevalent (78/122 = 63.9%) than the reversal reaction (RR) (44/122 = 36.1%), especially in the MB patients (OR 5.07; CI 2.86-8.99; p<0.0001) who exhibited coinfections (OR 2.26; CI 1.56-3.27; p<0.0001). Eighty-eight (88/225 = 39.1%) patients exhibited coinfections. Oral coinfections were the most prevalent (40/88 = 45.5%), followed by urinary tract infections (17/88 = 19.3%), sinusopathy (6/88 = 6.8%), hepatitis C (6/88 = 6.8%), and hepatitis B (6/88 = 6.8%). CONCLUSIONS: Coinfections may be involved in the development and maintenance of leprosy reactions.

Vasectomy reversal with ultrasonography-guided spermatic cord block

Study Type--Therapy (case series) Level of Evidence 4. What's known on the subject? and What does the study add? Vasectomy reversal is often performed in general or neuraxial anaesthesia. Even though the site of vasectomy reversal is easily amenable to regional/local anaesthesia, spermatic cord blocks are rarely applied because of their risk of vascular damage within the spermatic cord. Recently, we described the technique of ultrasonography (US)-guided spermatic cord block for scrotal surgery, which, thanks to the US guidance, at the same time avoids the risk of vascular damage of blindly performed injections and the risks of general and neuraxial anaesthesia. Vasectomy reversal can easily be done in regional anaesthesia with the newly described technique of US-guided spermatic cord block without the risks of vascular damage by a blindly performed injection and the risks of standard general and neuraxial anaesthesia. In addition, this technique grants long-lasting postoperative pain relief and patients recover more quickly. Microsurgical conditions are excellent and patient satisfaction is high. Thanks to these advantages, more patients undergoing vasectomy reversal might avoid general or neuraxial anaesthesia.

Randomized, controlled trial of ultrasound-assisted catheter-directed thrombolysis for acute intermediate-risk pulmonary embolism.

BACKGROUND In patients with acute pulmonary embolism, systemic thrombolysis improves right ventricular (RV) dilatation, is associated with major bleeding, and is withheld in many patients at risk. This multicenter randomized, controlled trial investigated whether ultrasound-assisted catheter-directed thrombolysis (USAT) is superior to anticoagulation alone in the reversal of RV dilatation in intermediate-risk patients. METHODS AND RESULTS Fifty-nine patients (63±14 years) with acute main or lower lobe pulmonary embolism and echocardiographic RV to left ventricular dimension (RV/LV) ratio ≥1.0 were randomized to receive unfractionated heparin and an USAT regimen of 10 to 20 mg recombinant tissue plasminogen activator over 15 hours (n=30; USAT group) or unfractionated heparin alone (n=29; heparin group). Primary outcome was the difference in the RV/LV ratio from baseline to 24 hours. Safety outcomes included death, major and minor bleeding, and recurrent venous thromboembolism at 90 days. In the USAT group, the mean RV/LV ratio was reduced from 1.28±0.19 at baseline to 0.99±0.17 at 24 hours (P<0.001); in the heparin group, mean RV/LV ratios were 1.20±0.14 and 1.17±0.20, respectively (P=0.31). The mean decrease in RV/LV ratio from baseline to 24 hours was 0.30±0.20 versus 0.03±0.16 (P<0.001), respectively. At 90 days, there was 1 death (in the heparin group), no major bleeding, 4 minor bleeding episodes (3 in the USAT group and 1 in the heparin group; P=0.61), and no recurrent venous thromboembolism. CONCLUSIONS In patients with pulmonary embolism at intermediate risk, a standardized USAT regimen was superior to anticoagulation with heparin alone in reversing RV dilatation at 24 hours, without an increase in bleeding complications. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION URL http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01166997.

Cocaine-predictive stimulus induces drug-seeking behavior and neural activation in limbic brain regions after multiple months of abstinence: Reversal by D1 antagonists

The conditioning of cocaine's subjective actions with environmental stimuli may be a critical factor in long-lasting relapse risk associated with cocaine addiction. To study the significance of learning factors in persistent addictive behavior as well as the neurobiological basis of this phenomenon, rats were trained to associate discriminative stimuli (SD) with the availability of i.v. cocaine vs. nonrewarding saline solution, and then placed on extinction conditions during which the i.v. solutions and SDs were withheld. The effects of reexposure to the SD on the recovery of responding at the previously cocaine-paired lever and on Fos protein expression then were determined in two groups. One group was tested immediately after extinction, whereas rats in the second group were confined to their home cages for an additional 4 months before testing. In both groups, the cocaine SD, but not the non-reward SD, elicited strong recovery of responding and increased Fos immunoreactivity in the basolateral amygdala and medial prefrontal cortex (areas Cg1/Cg3). The response reinstatement and Fos expression induced by the cocaine SD were both reversed by selective dopamine D1 receptor antagonists. The undiminished efficacy of the cocaine SD to elicit drug-seeking behavior after 4 months of abstinence parallels the long-lasting nature of conditioned cue reactivity and cue-induced cocaine craving in humans, and confirms a significant role of learning factors in the long-lasting addictive potential of cocaine. Moreover, the results implicate D1-dependent neural mechanisms within the medial prefrontal cortex and basolateral amygdala as substrates for cocaine-seeking behavior elicited by cocaine-predictive environmental stimuli.

Safety and risk factors for difficult endoscopist-directed ERCP sedation in daily practice: a hospital-based case-control study

Background: There are limited data concerning endoscopist-directed endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography deep sedation. The aim of this study was to establish the safety and risk factors for difficult sedation in daily practice. Patients and methods: Hospital-based, frequency matched case-control study. All patients were identified from a database of 1,008 patients between 2014 and 2015. The cases were those with difficult sedations. This concept was defined based on the combination of the receipt of high-doses of midazolam or propofol, poor tolerance, use of reversal agents or sedation-related adverse events. The presence of different factors was evaluated to determine whether they predicted difficult sedation. Results: One-hundred and eighty-nine patients (63 cases, 126 controls) were included. Cases were classified in terms of high-dose requirements (n = 35, 55.56%), sedation-related adverse events (n = 14, 22.22%), the use of reversal agents (n = 13, 20.63%) and agitation/discomfort (n = 8, 12.7%). Concerning adverse events, the total rate was 1.39%, including clinically relevant hypoxemia (n = 11), severe hypotension (n = 2) and paradoxical reactions to midazolam (n = 1). The rate of hypoxemia was higher in patients under propofol combined with midazolam than in patients with propofol alone (2.56% vs. 0.8%, p < 0.001). Alcohol consumption (OR: 2.674 [CI 95%: 1.098-6.515], p = 0.030), opioid consumption (OR: 2.713 [CI 95%: 1.096-6.716], p = 0.031) and the consumption of other psychoactive drugs (OR: 2.015 [CI 95%: 1.017-3.991], p = 0.045) were confirmed to be independent risk factors for difficult sedation. Conclusions: Endoscopist-directed deep sedation during endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography is safe. The presence of certain factors should be assessed before the procedure to identify patients who are high-risk for difficult sedation.

Pairs trading in the UK equity market: risk and return

In this paper, we provide the first comprehensive UK evidence on the profitability of the pairs trading strategy. Evidence suggests that the strategy performs well in crisis periods, so we control for both risk and liquidity to assess performance. To evaluate the effect of market frictions on the strategy, we use several estimates of transaction costs. We also present evidence on the performance of the strategy in different economic and market states. Our results show that pairs trading portfolios typically have little exposure to known equity risk factors such as market, size, value, momentum and reversal. However, a model controlling for risk and liquidity explains a far larger proportion of returns. Incorporating different assumptions about bid-ask spreads leads to reductions in performance estimates. When we allow for time-varying risk exposures, conditioned on the contemporaneous equity market return, risk-adjusted returns are generally not significantly different from zero.

No evidence for association of ataxia-telangiectasia mutated gene T2119C and C3161G amino acid substitution variants with risk of breast cancer

Background There is evidence that certain mutations in the double-strand break repair pathway ataxia-telangiectasia mutated gene act in a dominant-negative manner to increase the risk of breast cancer. There are also some reports to suggest that the amino acid substitution variants T2119C Ser707Pro and C3161G Pro1054Arg may be associated with breast cancer risk. We investigate the breast cancer risk associated with these two nonconservative amino acid substitution variants using a large Australian population-based case–control study. Methods The polymorphisms were genotyped in more than 1300 cases and 600 controls using 5' exonuclease assays. Case–control analyses and genotype distributions were compared by logistic regression. Results The 2119C variant was rare, occurring at frequencies of 1.4 and 1.3% in cases and controls, respectively (P = 0.8). There was no difference in genotype distribution between cases and controls (P = 0.8), and the TC genotype was not associated with increased risk of breast cancer (adjusted odds ratio = 1.08, 95% confidence interval = 0.59–1.97, P = 0.8). Similarly, the 3161G variant was no more common in cases than in controls (2.9% versus 2.2%, P = 0.2), there was no difference in genotype distribution between cases and controls (P = 0.1), and the CG genotype was not associated with an increased risk of breast cancer (adjusted odds ratio = 1.30, 95% confidence interval = 0.85–1.98, P = 0.2). This lack of evidence for an association persisted within groups defined by the family history of breast cancer or by age. Conclusion The 2119C and 3161G amino acid substitution variants are not associated with moderate or high risks of breast cancer in Australian women.