Properties of a risk measure derived from ruin theory

This paper studies a risk measure inherited from ruin theory and investigates some of its properties. Specifically, we consider a value-at-risk (VaR)-type risk measure defined as the smallest initial capital needed to ensure that the ultimate ruin probability is less than a given level. This VaR-type risk measure turns out to be equivalent to the VaR of the maximal deficit of the ruin process in infinite time. A related Tail-VaR-type risk measure is also discussed.

Anxiety disorders and depression and risk for drug use disorders across the life course: Sex and ethnic contrasts

The present study examined the linkage between mental (i.e., anxiety disorders and depression) and drug use disorders in a multi-ethnic (i.e., 25% Euro-American, 38% Hispanic/Latino, 33% African American, 4% other) sample of adults (N = 1638, age 18–93 years old). Risk for drug use disorders was examined, while attending to methodological issues of prior research including (1) psychiatric comorbidity, (2) variations in risk associated with sex, ethnicity, and age, and (3) temporal order between mental and drug use disorders. ^ Participants were assessed using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI; World Health Organization, 1990). A life history calendar (Freedman et al., 1988) was used to aid the ordering of onsets of all disorders assessed. ^ Preliminary analysis indicated anxiety disorders and depression were significant predictors of drug use disorders, but after controlling for comorbidity and temporal order, anxiety disorders and depression were no longer predictive of drug use disorders. Findings are discussed in terms of their usefulness for prevention and treatment of drug use disorders. ^

No evidence for association of ataxia-telangiectasia mutated gene T2119C and C3161G amino acid substitution variants with risk of breast cancer

Background There is evidence that certain mutations in the double-strand break repair pathway ataxia-telangiectasia mutated gene act in a dominant-negative manner to increase the risk of breast cancer. There are also some reports to suggest that the amino acid substitution variants T2119C Ser707Pro and C3161G Pro1054Arg may be associated with breast cancer risk. We investigate the breast cancer risk associated with these two nonconservative amino acid substitution variants using a large Australian population-based case–control study. Methods The polymorphisms were genotyped in more than 1300 cases and 600 controls using 5' exonuclease assays. Case–control analyses and genotype distributions were compared by logistic regression. Results The 2119C variant was rare, occurring at frequencies of 1.4 and 1.3% in cases and controls, respectively (P = 0.8). There was no difference in genotype distribution between cases and controls (P = 0.8), and the TC genotype was not associated with increased risk of breast cancer (adjusted odds ratio = 1.08, 95% confidence interval = 0.59–1.97, P = 0.8). Similarly, the 3161G variant was no more common in cases than in controls (2.9% versus 2.2%, P = 0.2), there was no difference in genotype distribution between cases and controls (P = 0.1), and the CG genotype was not associated with an increased risk of breast cancer (adjusted odds ratio = 1.30, 95% confidence interval = 0.85–1.98, P = 0.2). This lack of evidence for an association persisted within groups defined by the family history of breast cancer or by age. Conclusion The 2119C and 3161G amino acid substitution variants are not associated with moderate or high risks of breast cancer in Australian women.