Cost-plus-loss analyses of forest inventory strategies based on kNN-assigned reference sample plot data

Abstract

Stratified estimation of forest inventory variables using spatially summarized stratifications

Abstract

Suitability of LiDAR technology for forest inventory in Russia

LiDAR is an advanced remote sensing technology with many applications, including forest inventory. The most common type is ALS (airborne laser scanning). The method is successfully utilized in many developed markets, where it is replacing traditional forest inventory methods. However, it is innovative for Russian market, where traditional field inventory dominates. ArboLiDAR is a forest inventory solution that engages LiDAR, color infrared imagery, GPS ground control plots and field sample plots, developed by Arbonaut Ltd. This study is an industrial market research for LiDAR technology in Russia focused on customer needs. Russian forestry market is very attractive, because of large growing stock volumes. It underwent drastic changes in 2006, but it is still in transitional stage. There are several types of forest inventory, both with public and private funding. Private forestry enterprises basically need forest inventory in two cases – while making coupe demarcation before timber harvesting and as a part of forest management planning, that is supposed to be done every ten years on the whole leased territory. The study covered 14 companies in total that include private forestry companies with timber harvesting activities, private forest inventory providers, state subordinate companies and forestry software developer. The research strategy is multiple case studies with semi-structured interviews as the main data collection technique. The study focuses on North-West Russia, as it is the most developed Russian region in forestry. The research applies the Voice of the Customer (VOC) concept to elicit customer needs of Russian forestry actors and discovers how these needs are met. It studies forest inventory methods currently applied in Russia and proposes the model of method comparison, based on Multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approach, mainly on Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Required product attributes are classified in accordance with Kano model. The answer about suitability of LiDAR technology is ambiguous, since many details should be taken into account.

APPLICATION OF AN IMPUTATION METHOD FOR GEOSPATIAL INVENTORY OF FOREST STRUCTURAL ATTRIBUTES ACROSS MULTIPLE SPATIAL SCALES IN THE LAKE STATES, U.S.A.

Credible spatial information characterizing the structure and site quality of forests is critical to sustainable forest management and planning, especially given the increasing demands and threats to forest products and services. Forest managers and planners are required to evaluate forest conditions over a broad range of scales, contingent on operational or reporting requirements. Traditionally, forest inventory estimates are generated via a design-based approach that involves generalizing sample plot measurements to characterize an unknown population across a larger area of interest. However, field plot measurements are costly and as a consequence spatial coverage is limited. Remote sensing technologies have shown remarkable success in augmenting limited sample plot data to generate stand- and landscape-level spatial predictions of forest inventory attributes. Further enhancement of forest inventory approaches that couple field measurements with cutting edge remotely sensed and geospatial datasets are essential to sustainable forest management. We evaluated a novel Random Forest based k Nearest Neighbors (RF-kNN) imputation approach to couple remote sensing and geospatial data with field inventory collected by different sampling methods to generate forest inventory information across large spatial extents. The forest inventory data collected by the FIA program of US Forest Service was integrated with optical remote sensing and other geospatial datasets to produce biomass distribution maps for a part of the Lake States and species-specific site index maps for the entire Lake State. Targeting small-area application of the state-of-art remote sensing, LiDAR (light detection and ranging) data was integrated with the field data collected by an inexpensive method, called variable plot sampling, in the Ford Forest of Michigan Tech to derive standing volume map in a cost-effective way. The outputs of the RF-kNN imputation were compared with independent validation datasets and extant map products based on different sampling and modeling strategies. The RF-kNN modeling approach was found to be very effective, especially for large-area estimation, and produced results statistically equivalent to the field observations or the estimates derived from secondary data sources. The models are useful to resource managers for operational and strategic purposes.

A distribuição de riscos em concessões florestais: uma análise econômico-jurídica dos riscos recorrentes do inventário florestal amostral

A Lei 11.284/2006 é um importante marco legal da atividade de gestão florestal do Brasil. O manejo florestal sustentável de florestas públicas, até então exercido exclusivamente pelo Estado, passou a ser passível de concessão com o advento dessa Lei. A chamada “concessão florestal” se insere, portanto, na nova orientação político-econômica brasileira de “desestatização”, privilegiando o princípio da eficiência. Como resultado, a atividade de exploração sustentável de produtos florestais passa a ser transferida pelo Estado, por intermédio do Serviço Florestal Brasileiro, à iniciativa privada. Para o sucesso de uma concessão florestal, os licitantes interessados precisam de uma estimativa da capacidade produtiva da “Unidade de Manejo Florestal”. O estudo disponibilizado pelo Serviço Florestal Brasileiro para fazer essa estimativa é o inventário florestal que, resumidamente, tem a importante missão de antecipar às características vegetais de área que será objeto da concessão. E os resultados desse estudo são a principal fonte de informação para que o licitante calcule o valor que irá ofertar ao Poder Concedente. Ocorre que, por questões técnico-metodológicas que fogem ao conhecimento jurídico, os estudos de inventário florestal estão sujeitos a erros de grande escala, retratando, de maneira ilusória, a realidade da vegetação que compõe área que será concedida. Isto é um risco intrínseco à atividade de exploração sustentável de produtos florestais. Diante desse contexto, caberia ao Serviço Florestal Brasileiro administrar o risco do inventário florestal da maneira mais eficiente possível. Entretanto, não é isso que vem ocorrendo nos contratos de concessão florestal. Sobre a distribuição de riscos em contratos de concessão, a doutrina especializada no tema oferece critérios que, quando seguidos, possibilitam uma alocação dos riscos peculiares a cada atividade à parte que melhor tem condições de geri-los. Esses critérios aumentam a eficiência da concessão. Contudo, os contratos de concessão florestal até hoje celebrados não vêm considerando esses importantes critérios para uma eficiente distribuição de riscos. Como consequência, o risco do inventário florestal é, igualmente a outros inúmeros riscos, negligenciado por esses contratos, aumentando-se a ineficiência dos contratos de concessão. Diante desse panorama, os licitantes interessados na concessão adotam duas posturas distintas, ambas igualmente rejeitáveis: a postura do Licitante Conservador e a postura do Licitante Irresponsável. Esses perfis de licitantes geram, respectivamente, ineficiência à concessão e, caso o erro do inventário florestal efetivamente ocorra, a possibilidade de inviabilidade da concessão. Como resposta a isso – que é exatamente o “problema” que pretendo resolver –, proponho uma solução para melhor administrar o risco do inventário florestal. Essa solução, inspirada em uma ideia utilizada na minuta do contrato de concessão da Linha 4 do Metrô de São Paulo, e baseando-se nos critérios oferecidos pela doutrina para uma distribuição eficiente dos riscos, propõe algo novo: a fim de tornar a os contratos de concessão florestal mais eficientes, sugere-se que o risco do inventário florestal deve ser alocado na Administração Pública, e, caso o evento indesejável efetivamente ocorra (erro do inventário florestal), deve-se, por meio do reequilíbrio econômico-financeiro do contrato, ajustar o valor a ser pago pelo concessionário ao Poder Concedente. Como consequência dessa previsão contratual, as propostas dos licitantes serão mais eficientes, permitindo-se alcançar o objetivo primordial da Lei 11.284/2006: aumento da eficiência da exploração florestal sustentável e preservação do meio ambiente e dos recursos florestais.

Empirical errors of small area estimates from the multisource National Forest Inventory in Eastern Finland

Abstract

Impacts of global change on iberian forest ecosystems inferred from the spanish national forest inventory = Impactos del cambio global en ecosistemas forestales ibéricos a partir del inventario forestal nacional

Los efectos del cambio global sobre los bosques son una de las grandes preocupaciones de la sociedad del siglo XXI. Algunas de sus posibles consecuencias como son los efectos en la producción, la sostenibilidad, la pérdida de biodiversidad o cambios en la distribución y ensamblaje de especies forestales pueden tener grandes repercusiones sociales, ecológicas y económicas. La detección y seguimiento de estos efectos constituyen uno de los retos a los que se enfrentan en la actualidad científicos y gestores forestales. En base a la comparación de series históricas del Inventario Forestal Nacional Español (IFN), esta tesis trata de arrojar luz sobre algunos de los impactos que los cambios socioeconómicos y ambientales de las últimas décadas han generado sobre nuestros bosques. En primer lugar, esta tesis presenta una innovadora metodología con base geoestadística que permite la comparación de diferentes ciclos de inventario sin importar los diferentes métodos de muestreo empleados en cada uno de ellos (Capítulo 3). Esta metodología permite analizar cambios en la dinámica y distribución espacial de especies forestales en diferentes gradientes geográficos. Mediante su aplicación, se constatarán y cuantificarán algunas de las primeras evidencias de cambio en la distribución altitudinal y latitudinal de diferentes especies forestales ibéricas, que junto al estudio de su dinámica poblacional y tasas demográficas, ayudarán a testar algunas hipótesis biogeográficas en un escenario de cambio global en zonas de especial vulnerabilidad (Capítulos 3, 4 y 5). Por último, mediante la comparación de ciclos de parcelas permanentes del IFN se ahondará en el conocimiento de la evolución en las últimas décadas de especies invasoras en los ecosistemas forestales del cuadrante noroccidental ibérico, uno de los más afectados por la invasión de esta flora (Capítulo 6). ABSTRACT The effects of global change on forests are one of the major concerns of the XXI century. Some of the potential impacts of global change on forest growth, productivity, biodiversity or changes in species assembly and spatial distribution may have great ecological and economic consequences. The detection and monitoring of these effects are some of the major challenges that scientists and forest managers face nowadays. Based on the comparison of historical series of the Spanish National Forest Inventory (NFI), this thesis tries to shed some light on some of the impacts driven by recent socio-economic and environmental changes on our forest ecosystems. Firstly, this thesis presents an innovative methodology based on geostatistical techniques that allows the comparison of different NFI cycles regardless of the different sampling methods used in each of them (Chapter 3). This methodology, in conjunction with other statistical techniques, allows to analyze changes in the spatial distribution and population dynamics of forest species along different geographic gradients. By its application, this thesis presents some of the first evidences of changes in species distribution along different geographical gradients in the Iberian Peninsula. The analysis of these findings, of species population dynamics and demographic rates will help to test some biogeographical hypothesis on forests under climate change scenarios in areas of particular vulnerability (Chapters 3, 4 and 5). Finally, by comparing NFI cycles with permanent plots, this thesis increases our knowledge about the patterns and processes associated with the recent evolution of invasive species in the forest ecosystems of North-western Iberia, one of the areas most affected by the invasion of allien species at national scale (Chapter 6).

Predicting the distribution of forest tree species using topographic variables and vegetation index in eastern Acre, Brazil

Species distribution modeling has relevant implications for the studies of biodiversity, decision making about conservation and knowledge about ecological requirements of the species. The aim of this study was to evaluate if the use of forest inventories can improve the estimation of occurrence probability, identify the limits of the potential distribution and habitat preference of a group of timber tree species. The environmental predictor variables were: elevation, slope, aspect, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and height above the nearest drainage (HAND). To estimate the distribution of species we used the maximum entropy method (Maxent). In comparison with a random distribution, using topographic variables and vegetation index as features, the Maxent method predicted with an average accuracy of 86% the geographical distribution of studied species. The altitude and NDVI were the most important variables. There were limitations to the interpolation of the models for non-sampled locations and that are outside of the elevation gradient associated with the occurrence data in approximately 7% of the basin area. Ceiba pentandra (samaúma), Castilla ulei (caucho) and Hura crepitans (assacu) is more likely to occur in nearby water course areas. Clarisia racemosa (guariúba), Amburana acreana (cerejeira), Aspidosperma macrocarpon (pereiro), Apuleia leiocarpa (cumaru cetim), Aspidosperma parvifolium (amarelão) and Astronium lecointei (aroeira) can also occur in upland forest and well drained soils. This modeling approach has potential for application on other tropical species still less studied, especially those that are under pressure from logging.

Parents' physical victimization in childhood and current risk of child maltreatment: the mediator role of psychosomatic symptoms

Objective: To test the potential mediation effect of psychosomatic symptoms on the relationship between parents' history of childhood physical victimization and current risk for child physical maltreatment. Methods: Data from the Portuguese National Representative Study of Psychosocial Context of Child Abuse and Neglect were used. Nine-hundred and twenty-four parents completed the Childhood History Questionnaire, the Psychosomatic Scale of the Brief Symptom Inventory, and the Child Abuse Potential Inventory. Results: Mediation analysis revealed that the total effect of the childhood physical victimization on child maltreatment risk was significant. The results showed that the direct effect from the parents' history of childhood physical victimization to their current maltreatment risk was still significant once parents' psychosomatic symptoms were added to the model, indicating that the increase in psychosomatic symptomatology mediated in part the increase of parents' current child maltreatment risk. Discussion: The mediation analysis showed parents' psychosomatic symptomatology as a causal pathway through which parents' childhood history of physical victimization exerts its effect on increased of child maltreatment risk. Somatization-related alterations in stress and emotional regulation are discussed as potential theoretical explanation of our findings. A cumulative risk perspective is also discussed in order to elucidate about the mechanisms that contribute for the intergenerational continuity of child physical maltreatment.

Cluster recognition in spatial-temporal sequences: The case of forest fires

Forest fire sequences can be modelled as a stochastic point process where events are characterized by their spatial locations and occurrence in time. Cluster analysis permits the detection of the space/time pattern distribution of forest fires. These analyses are useful to assist fire-managers in identifying risk areas, implementing preventive measures and conducting strategies for an efficient distribution of the firefighting resources. This paper aims to identify hot spots in forest fire sequences by means of the space-time scan statistics permutation model (STSSP) and a geographical information system (GIS) for data and results visualization. The scan statistical methodology uses a scanning window, which moves across space and time, detecting local excesses of events in specific areas over a certain period of time. Finally, the statistical significance of each cluster is evaluated through Monte Carlo hypothesis testing. The case study is the forest fires registered by the Forest Service in Canton Ticino (Switzerland) from 1969 to 2008. This dataset consists of geo-referenced single events including the location of the ignition points and additional information. The data were aggregated into three sub-periods (considering important preventive legal dispositions) and two main ignition-causes (lightning and anthropogenic causes). Results revealed that forest fire events in Ticino are mainly clustered in the southern region where most of the population is settled. Our analysis uncovered local hot spots arising from extemporaneous arson activities. Results regarding the naturally-caused fires (lightning fires) disclosed two clusters detected in the northern mountainous area.

Suicidal ideation and the risk of suicide in patients with fibromyalgia: a comparison with non-pain controls and patients suffering from low-back pain.

Fibromyalgia is associated with an increased rate of mortality from suicide. In fact, this disease is associated with several characteristics that are linked to an increased risk of suicidal behaviors, such as being female and experiencing chronic pain, psychological distress, and sleep disturbances. However, the literature concerning suicidal behaviors and their risk factors in fibromyalgia is sparse. The objectives of the present study were to evaluate the prevalence of suicidal ideation and the risk of suicide in a sample of patients with fibromyalgia compared with a sample of healthy subjects and a sample of patients with chronic low-back pain. We also aimed to evaluate the relevance of pain intensity, depression, and sleep quality as variables related to suicidal ideation and risks. Logistic regression was applied to estimate the likelihood of suicidal ideation and the risk of suicide adjusted by age and sex. We also used two logistic regression models using age, sex, pain severity score, depression severity, sleep quality, and disease state as independent variables and using the control group as a reference. Forty-four patients with fibromyalgia, 32 patients with low-back pain, and 50 controls were included. Suicidal ideation, measured with item 9 of the Beck Depression Inventory, was almost absent among the controls and was low among patients with low-back pain; however, suicidal ideation was prominent among patients with fibromyalgia (P<0.0001). The risk of suicide, measured with the Plutchik Suicide Risk Scale, was also higher among patients with fibromyalgia than in patients with low-back pain or in controls (P<0.0001). The likelihood for suicidal ideation and the risk of suicide were higher among patients with fibromyalgia (odds ratios of 26.9 and 48.0, respectively) than in patients with low-back pain (odds ratios 4.6 and 4.7, respectively). Depression was the only factor associated with suicidal ideation or the risk of suicide.