Advances in therapeutic risk management through signal detection and risk minimisation tool analyses

Les quatre principales activités de la gestion de risque thérapeutique comportent l’identification, l’évaluation, la minimisation, et la communication du risque. Ce mémoire aborde les problématiques liées à l’identification et à la minimisation du risque par la réalisation de deux études dont les objectifs sont de: 1) Développer et valider un outil de « data mining » pour la détection des signaux à partir des banques de données de soins de santé du Québec; 2) Effectuer une revue systématique afin de caractériser les interventions de minimisation de risque (IMR) ayant été implantées. L’outil de détection de signaux repose sur la méthode analytique du quotient séquentiel de probabilité (MaxSPRT) en utilisant des données de médicaments délivrés et de soins médicaux recueillis dans une cohorte rétrospective de 87 389 personnes âgées vivant à domicile et membres du régime d’assurance maladie du Québec entre les années 2000 et 2009. Quatre associations « médicament-événement indésirable (EI) » connues et deux contrôles « négatifs » ont été utilisés. La revue systématique a été faite à partir d’une revue de la littérature ainsi que des sites web de six principales agences réglementaires. La nature des RMIs ont été décrites et des lacunes de leur implémentation ont été soulevées. La méthode analytique a mené à la détection de signaux dans l'une des quatre combinaisons médicament-EI. Les principales contributions sont: a) Le premier outil de détection de signaux à partir des banques de données administratives canadiennes; b) Contributions méthodologiques par la prise en compte de l'effet de déplétion des sujets à risque et le contrôle pour l'état de santé du patient. La revue a identifié 119 IMRs dans la littérature et 1,112 IMRs dans les sites web des agences réglementaires. La revue a démontré qu’il existe une augmentation des IMRs depuis l’introduction des guides réglementaires en 2005 mais leur efficacité demeure peu démontrée.

Traveller Focus Week - improving health and wellbeing

Members of the Traveller community and their support organisations joined the Public Health Agency and the Health and Social Care Board at an event in Dungannon to mark Traveller Focus Week (5 - 11 December) by sharing the progress made, and celebrating good practice in meeting the health and wellbeing needs of Travellers.These needs were identified in the 'All Ireland Traveller Health Study' by University College Dublin in June 2010. It estimated that there are 3,905 Travellers living in 1,562 families in Northern Ireland, and the stark findings include that when compared with the life expectancy of the general population, male Travellers lose 15 years of life and females lose 11 years.The report made a number of recommendations, including:prioritising mother and children's health; enhanced preventative work for respiratory and cardiovascular disease, as well as better risk detection and management of the disease; development of primary care interventions which involve Travellers engaging with other Travellers in health improvement;engagement of men and young men in improving health and wellbeing and access to healthcare.Speaking at the event, Mary Black, Assistant Director of Public Health (Health and Social Wellbeing Improvement) PHA, said: "The Public Health Agency works in partnership to promote health and wellbeing and reduce health inequalities."This event with the Travellers Health and Wellbeing Forum was an important opportunity to look at progress against agreed priorities and share good practice across Northen Ireland and the successful work of the Forum. One such example is the recruitment of Travellers into employment as health workers developed by the Belfast Health and Social Care Trust and part-funded by the PHA. Other areas are also considering work placements and all of this developing practice will help inform future partnerships with employers and help break down the real prejudice that can be experienced by Travellers."We also heard about the progress Travellers have made in their own right, and their views about how the Travelling community is fully engaged and participates in the future development of the Forum and programmes that aim to improve health and wellbeing and contribute to a more equal society."Mark Donahue, Equality Officer, An Munia Tober (a Traveller support organisation), added "The event was a great success in terms of highlighting the main health issues for Travellers, which came out of the All Ireland Traveller Health Study. I was heartened to see a great turn out by the Traveller community from all over Northern Ireland and also by the interest and commitment of so many public agencies and other organisations to work together to improve Traveller health."The event, at 'Breakthru' in Dungannon, also brought together representatives from the five health and social care trusts, Cooperation and Working Together (CAWT), Housing and key voluntary sector organisations, all involved in delivering the recommendations from the 'All Ireland Traveller Health Study'.

Factores de riesgo del comportamiento y readiness de aficionados inscritos a carreras atléticas de fondo de 18-64 años en Bogotá D.C., 2014”

La participación en carreras atléticas de calle ha aumentado; esto requiere detectar riesgos previos al esfuerzo físico. Objetivo. Identificar factores de riesgo del comportamiento y readiness de inscritos a una carrera. Método. Estudio transversal en aficionados de 18-64 años. Encuesta digital con módulos de IPAQ, PARQ+ y STEP. Muestreo aleatorio sistemático con n=510, para una inactividad física esperada de 35% (±5%). Se evaluó nivel de actividad física, consumo de alcohol (peligroso), de fruta, verdura, tabaco y sal, y readiness. Resultados. El cumplimiento de actividad física fue 97,4%; 2,4% consume nivel óptimo de fruta o verdura (diferencias por edad, sexo y estrato), 3,7% fuma y 44,1% consumo peligroso de alcohol. El 19,8% reportó PARQ+ positivo y 5,7% requiere supervisión. Hay diferencias por trabajo y estudio. Discusión. Los aficionados cumplen el nivel de actividad física; pero no de otros factores. Una estrategia de seguridad en el atletismo de calle es evaluar los factores de riesgo relacionados con el estilo de vida así como el readiness.

Prediction and prevention of psychosis: current progress and future tasks

Prevention of psychoses has been intensively investigated within the past two decades, and particularly, prediction has been much advanced. Depending on the applied risk indicators, current criteria are associated with average, yet significantly heterogeneous transition rates of ≥30 % within 3 years, further increasing with longer follow-up periods. Risk stratification offers a promising approach to advance current prediction as it can help to reduce heterogeneity of transition rates and to identify subgroups with specific needs and response patterns, enabling a targeted intervention. It may also be suitable to improve risk enrichment. Current results suggest the future implementation of multi-step risk algorithms combining sensitive risk detection by cognitive basic symptoms (COGDIS) and ultra-high-risk (UHR) criteria with additional individual risk estimation by a prognostic index that relies on further predictors such as additional clinical indicators, functional impairment, neurocognitive deficits, and EEG and structural MRI abnormalities, but also considers resilience factors. Simply combining COGDIS and UHR criteria in a second step of risk stratification produced already a 4-year hazard rate of 0.66. With regard to prevention, two recent meta-analyses demonstrated that preventive measures enable a reduction in 12-month transition rates by 54-56 % with most favorable numbers needed to treat of 9-10. Unfortunately, psychosocial functioning, another important target of preventive efforts, did not improve. However, these results are based on a relatively small number of trials; and more methodologically sound studies and a stronger consideration of individual profiles of clinical needs by modular intervention programs are required

Uso de una red inalámbrica de sensores para estimar riesgo de incendio

Una red inalámbrica de sensores (Wireless Sensor Network, WSN) constituye un sistema de comunicación de datos flexible utilizado como alternativa a las redes cableadas o como extensión de éstas y está compuesta por elementos de cómputo, medición y comunicación, que permiten al administrador instrumentar, observar y reaccionar a eventos y fenómenos en un ambiente específico. Una de las aplicaciones de estas redes es su uso en sistemas de predicción y prevención de incendios en áreas naturales. Su implementación se basa en el despliegue de sensores inalámbricos, realizado en una zona de riesgo de incendio para que puedan recolectar información sobre parámetros ambientales como temperatura, humedad, luz o presión, entre otros. Desde una estación base (o nodo "sumidero"), se suministra la información de los sensores a un centro de monitorización y control de forma estructurada. En este centro la información recibida puede ser analizada, procesada y visualizada en tiempo real. Desde este centro de control se puede controlar también la red WSN modificando el comportamiento de los sensores según el nivel de riesgo de incendio detectado. Este proyecto se basa en el diseño, implementación y despliegue de una red inalámbrica de sensores en un entorno simulado para observar su comportamiento en diferentes situaciones y mostrar su eficacia ante un posible caso de incendio. La implementación de este sistema denominado Sistema de Estimación de Riesgo de Incendio Utilizando una WSN (SERIUW) , junto con el desarrollado, en paralelo, de otro proyecto denominado Sistema de Control y Visualización de Información sobre Riesgo de Incendio (SCVIRI) que implementa las funciones de los centros de monitorización y control, conforman un Sistema de Anticipación y Seguimiento de Fuegos (SASF). Se han realizado pruebas de funcionalidad y eficacia, incluidas en la presente memoria del sistema unitario de en conjunto (ambos proyectos), en un entorno controlado simulado. Este sistema es una solución para la lucha contra los incendios forestales ya que predice y previene, de forma temprana, posibles incendios en las áreas naturales bajo supervisión. Ante un evento de incendio declarado este sistema es un poderoso instrumento de apoyo permitiendo, por un lado, generar alertas automáticas (con localización y gravedad de fuegos detectados) y por el otro, hacer un seguimiento del incendio con mapas en tiempo real (con su consecuente apoyo para la protección e información con las brigadas de bomberos en las zonas activas). ABSTRACT. A wireless sensor network (WSN) is a flexible data communication system used as an alternative to wired networks or as an extension of them and consists of nodes that perform calculation, measurement and communication activities. This allows the administrator to observe and react to events and phenomena in a specific environment. One application of these networks is fire prediction and prevention in natural areas. Its implementation is based on a deployment of wireless sensors, in a fire risk area, capable of collecting information such as temperature, humidity, luminance and pressure. A base station (or "sink") sends the collected information to a monitoring and control center following a structured format. At this center, the information received can be analyzed, processed and displayed in real time with monitoring systems. From this control center the WSN can also be controlled by changing the sensors behavior according to the level of fire risk detection. This project is based on the design, implementation and deployment of a Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) in a simulated environment in order to observe its behavior in different situations and show its effectiveness against a possible fire environment. The implementation of this system called SERIUW, has been done in parallel with other system, called SCVIRI, which has been developed in another project that implements the functions of monitoring and control center. Together, these two systems, make up a general system of anticipation and monitoring of fires. Functionality and performance tests have been performed on the overall system, in a controlled and simulated environment. The results of these tests are included in this document. The global system is a solution to fight the forest fires because it makes it easier to predict and prevent, early, possible fires in natural areas under supervision. This sytem can be a powerful tool since, before a fire event is declared, it generates automatic alerts (including location and severity information) and allows the real-time motorization of fire evolution integrated with maps. This could be also very useful for the support protection and information of fire brigades in zones in which a fire is already active.

A COMUNICAÇÃO PODE SALVAR VIDAS: ALERTAS ANTECIPADOS DE EMERGÊNCIAS CLIMÁTICAS PELA TELEVISÃO DIGITAL INTERATIVA BRASILEIRA

Alertas Antecipados de Emergência são elementos importantes na redução de riscos de desastres, evitando a perda de vidas e reduzindo seu impacto econômico e material. Dentre os meios de comunicação mais eficazes para geração de alertas antecipados, a televisão digital com sua capacidade de emissão de um para muitos e ainda com suas possibilidades de gerar informações reativas com dados enviados pelo mesmo sinal de TV é, no momento, o estado da arte para ajudar a população em situações de risco, comprovado através de estudos comparativos entre os sistemas de alerta de emergência existentes hoje em todo o mundo. Neste trabalho são comparados os sistemas japonês e norte-americano, sendo que os referenciais teóricos apresentados focalizam o processo comunicacional de uma informação de emergência, a partir de diversas teorias que fundamentam o processo de comunicação em situações de crise, com os quais chegou-se à conclusão de que a tecnologia de televisão Digital Brasileira, juntamente com a infraestrutura essencial para detecção de riscos e confiabilidade para a geração de alertas antecipados já existente, dispõe de todo o ferramental necessário para a criação de um sistema nacional. Por fim são apresentadas as indicações iniciais para a criação de um modelo para uma comunicação eficaz e efetiva de informações de emergência destinado à população brasileira.

Subchondral Cystlike Lesions Develop Longitudinally in Areas of Bone Marrow Edema-like Lesions in Patients with or at Risk for Knee Osteoarthritis: Detection with MR Imaging-The MOST Study

Purpose: To assess the association of prevalent bone marrow edema-like lesions (BMLs) and full-thickness cartilage loss with incident subchondral cyst-like lesions (SCs) in the knee to evaluate the bone contusion versus synovial fluid intrusion theories of SC formation. Materials and Methods: The Multicenter Osteoarthritis study is a longitudinal study of individuals who have or are at risk for knee osteoarthritis. The HIPAA-compliant protocol was approved by the institutional review boards of all participating centers, and written informed consent was obtained from all participants. Magnetic resonance images were acquired at baseline and 30-month follow-up and read semiquantitatively by using the Whole-Organ Magnetic Resonance Imaging Score system. The tibiofemoral and patellofemoral joints were subdivided into 14 subregions. BMLs and SCs were scored from 0 to 3. Cartilage morphology was scored from 0 to 6. The association of prevalent BMLs and full-thickness cartilage loss with incident SCs in the same subregion was assessed by using logistic regression with mutual adjustment for both predictors. Results: A total of 1283 knees were included. After adjustment for full-thickness cartilage loss, prevalent BMLs showed a strong and significant association with incident SCs in the same subregion, with an odds ratio of 12.9 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 8.9, 18.6). After adjustment for BMLs, prevalent full-thickness cartilage loss showed a significant but much less important association with incident SCs in the same subregion (odds ratio, 1.4; 95% CI: 1.0, 2.0). There was no apparent relationship between severity of full-thickness cartilage loss at baseline and incident SCs. Conclusion: Prevalent BMLs strongly predict incident SCs in the same subregion, even after adjustment for full-thickness cartilage loss, which supports the bone contusion theory of SC formation. (C) RSNA, 2010

Detection of Bartonella spp. in neotropical felids and evaluation of risk factors and hematological abnormalities associated with infection

Although antibodies to Bartonella henselae have been described in all neotropical felid species, DNA has been detected in only one species, Leopard us wiedii. The aim of this study was to determine whether DNA of Bartonella spp. could be detected in blood of other captive neotropical felids and evaluate risk factors and hematological findings associated with infection. Blood samples were collected from 57 small felids, including 1 Leopard us geoffroyi, 17 L wiedii, 22 Leopardus tigrinus, 14 Leopardus pardalis, and 3 Puma yagouaroundi; 10 blood samples from Panthera onca were retrieved from blood banks. Complete blood counts were performed on blood samples from small felids, while all samples were evaluated by PCR. DNA extraction was confirmed by amplification of the cat GAPDH gene. Bartonella spp. were assessed by amplifying a fragment of their 16S-23S rRNA intergenic spacer region; PCR products were purified and sequenced. For the small neotropical felids, risk factors [origin (wild-caught or zoo-born), gender, felid species, and flea exposure) were evaluated using exact multiple logistic regression. Hematological findings (anemia, polycythemia/hyperproteinemia, leukocytosis and leukopenia) were tested for association with infection using Fisher`s exact test. The 635 bp product amplified from 10 samples (10/67 = 14.92%) was identified as B. henselae by sequencing. Small neotropical felid males were more likely to be positive than females (95% CI = 0.00-0.451, p = 0.0028), however other analyzed variables were not considered risk factors (p > 0.05). Hematological abnormalities were not associated with infection (p > 0.05). This is the first report documenting B. henselae detection by PCR in several species of neotropical felids. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hybrid capture II and PapilloCheck® tests for detection of anal high-risk human papillomavirus

Introduction This study evaluated the level of concordance between hybrid capture II (HCII) and PapilloCheck® for the detection of high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) in anal samples. Methods Anal cell samples collected from 42 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)+ patients were analyzed. Results Considering only the 13 high-risk HPV types that are detectable by both tests, HCII was positive for 52.3% of the samples, and PapilloCheck® was positive for 52.3%. The level of concordance was 80.9% (Kappa = 0.61). Conclusions Good concordance was observed between the tests for the detection of high-risk HPV.

Detection of Altered Risk Factors in Hospitalized Patients with Coronary Artery Disease

OBJECTIVE: To assess biochemical, anthropometric, and dietary variables considered risk factors for coronary artery disease. METHODS: Using anthropometrics, dietary allowance, and blood biochemistry, we assessed 84 patients [54 males (mean age of 55± 8 years) and 30 females (mean age of 57±7 years)], who had severe ( > or = 70% coronary artery obstruction) and nonsevere forms of coronary artery disease determined by cardiac catheterization. The severe form of the disease prevailed in 70% of the males and 64% of the females, and a high frequency of familial antecedents (92% ' 88%) and history of acute myocardial infarction (80% ' 70%) were observed. Smoking predominated among males (65%) and diabetes mellitus among females (43%). RESULTS: Males and females had body mass index and body fat above the normal values. Females with nonsevere lesions had HDL > 35 mg/dL, and this constituted a discriminating intergroup indicator. Regardless of the severity of the disease, hyperglycemia and hypertriglyceridemia were found among females, and cholesterolemia > 200 mg/dL in both sexes, but only males had LDL fraction > 160 mg/dL and homocysteine > 11.7 mmol/L. The male dietary allowance was inadequate in nutrients for homocysteine metabolism and in nutrients with an antioxidant action, such as the vitamins B6, C, and folate. Individuals of both sexes had a higher lipid and cholesterol intake and an inadequate consumption of fiber. The diet was classified as high-protein, high-fat, and low-carbohydrate. CONCLUSION: The alterations found had no association with the severity of lesions, indicating the need for more effective nutritional intervention.

Risk Evaluation for Spoofing against a Sensor Supplied with Liveness Detection

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the risks associated with the use of fake fingerprints on a livescan supplied with a method of liveness detection. The method is based on optical properties of the skin. The sensor uses several polarizations and illuminations to capture the information of the different layers of the human skin. These experiments also allow for the determination under which conditions the system is deceived and if there is an influence respectively of the nature of the fake, the mould used for the production or the individuals involved in the attack. These experiments showed that current multispectral sensors can be deceived by the use of fake fingerprints created with or without the cooperation of the subject. Fakes created from direct casts perform better than those produced by fakes created from indirect casts. The results showed that the success of the attack is influenced by two main factors. The first is the quality of the fakes, and by extension the quality of the original fingerprint. The second is the combination of the general patterns involved in the attacks since an appropriate combination can strongly increase the rates of successful attacks.

Risk evaluation for spoofing against a sensor supplied with liveness detection

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the risks associated with the use of fake fingerprints on a livescan supplied with a method of liveness detection. The method is based on optical properties of the skin. The sensor uses several polarizations and illuminations to capture the information of the different layers of the human skin. These experiments also allow for the determination under which conditions the system is deceived and if there is an influence respectively of the nature of the fake, the mould used for the production or the individuals involved in the attack. These experiments showed that current multispectral sensors can be deceived by the use of fake fingerprints created with or without the cooperation of the subject. Fakes created from direct casts perform better than those produced by fakes created from indirect casts. The results showed that the success of the attack is influenced by two main factors. The first is the quality of the fakes, and by extension the quality of the original fingerprint. The second is the combination of the general patterns involved in the attacks since an appropriate combination can strongly increase the rates of successful attacks.

Combining clinical factors and quantitative ultrasound improves the detection of women both at low and high risk for hip fracture.

We hypothesized that combining clinical risk factors (CRF) with the heel stiffness index (SI) measured via quantitative ultrasound (QUS) would improve the detection of women both at low and high risk for hip fracture. Categorizing women by risk score improved the specificity of detection to 42.4%, versus 33.8% using CRF alone and 38.4% using the SI alone. This combined CRF-SI score could be used wherever and whenever DXA is not readily accessible. INTRODUCTION AND HYPOTHESIS: Several strategies have been proposed to identify women at high risk for osteoporosis-related fractures; we wanted to investigate whether combining clinical risk factors (CRF) and heel QUS parameters could provide a more accurate tool to identify women at both low and high risk for hip fracture than either CRF or QUS alone. METHODS: We pooled two Caucasian cohorts, EPIDOS and SEMOF, into a large database named "EPISEM", in which 12,064 women, 70 to 100 years old, were analyzed. Amongst all the CRF available in EPISEM, we used only the ones which were statistically significant in a Cox multivariate model. Then, we constructed a risk score, by combining the QUS-derived heel stiffness index (SI) and the following seven CRF: patient age, body mass index (BMI), fracture history, fall history, diabetes history, chair-test results, and past estrogen treatment. RESULTS: Using the composite SI-CRF score, 42% of the women who did not report a hip fracture were found to be at low risk at baseline, and 57% of those who subsequently sustained a fracture were at high risk. Using the SI alone, corresponding percentages were 38% and 52%; using CRF alone, 34% and 53%. The number of subjects in the intermediate group was reduced from 5,400 (including 112 hip fractures) and 5,032 (including 111 hip fractures) to 4,549 (including 100 including fractures) for the CRF and QUS alone versus the combination score. CONCLUSIONS: Combining clinical risk factors to heel bone ultrasound appears to correctly identify more women at low risk for hip fracture than either the stiffness index or the CRF alone; it improves the detection of women both at low and high risk.

Chromosome damage in underground coal miners: detection by conventional cytogenetic techniques and by submitting lymphocytes of unexposed individuals to plasma from at-risk groups

Chromosome abnormalities and the mitotic index in lymphocyte cultures and micronuclei in buccal mucosa cells were investigated in a sample of underground mineral coal miners from Southern Brazil. A decreased mitotic index, an excess of micronuclei and a higher frequency of chromosome abnormalities (fragments, polyploidy and overall chromosome alterations) were observed in the miners when compared to age-paired normal controls from the same area. An alternative assay for clastogenesis in occupational exposition was tested by submitting lymphocytes from non-exposed individuals to a pool of plasmas from the exposed population. This assay proved to be very convenient, as the lymphocytes obtained from the same individuals can be used as target as well as control cells. Also, it yielded a larger number of metaphases and of successful cultures than with common lymphocyte cultures from miners. A significantly higher frequency of chromatid gaps, fragments and overall alterations were observed when lymphocytes from control subjects were exposed to miner plasma pools. Control plasma pools did not significantly induce any type of chromosome alterations in the cultures of normal subjects, thus indicating that the results are not due to the effect of the addition of plasma pools per se.