Residual-based test for Nonlinear Cointegration with application in PPPs

Nested by linear cointegration first provided in Granger (1981), the definition of nonlinear cointegration is presented in this paper. Sequentially, a nonlinear cointegrated economic system is introduced. What we mainly study is testing no nonlinear cointegration against nonlinear cointegration by residual-based test, which is ready for detecting stochastic trend in nonlinear autoregression models. We construct cointegrating regression along with smooth transition components from smooth transition autoregression model. Some properties are analyzed and discussed during the estimation procedure for cointegrating regression, including description of transition variable. Autoregression of order one is considered as the model of estimated residuals for residual-based test, from which the teststatistic is obtained. Critical values and asymptotic distribution of the test statistic that we request for different cointegrating regressions with different sample sizes are derived based on Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed theoretical methods and models are illustrated by an empirical example, comparing the results with linear cointegration application in Hamilton (1994). It is concluded that there exists nonlinear cointegration in our system in the final results.

Residual-based Inference for Common Nonlinear Features

This paper investigates common nonlinear features in multivariate nonlinear autore-gressive models via testing the estimated residuals. A Wald-type test is proposed and itis asymptotically Chi-squared distributed. Simulation studies are given to examine thefinite-sample properties of the proposed test.

Comparison of Multivariate and Univariate Models for Genetic Evaluation of Milk Yield based on Test Day Data

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62H12, 62P99

Critical values for unit root and cointegration test statistics - the use of response surface equations

This note considers the value of surface response equations which can be used to calculate critical values for a range of unit root and cointegration tests popular in applied economic research.

A spectral-based cusum test of evolutionary change

We develop a test of evolutionary change that incorporates a null hypothesis of homogeneity, which encompasses time invariance in the variance and autocovariance structure of residuals from estimated econometric relationships. The test framework is based on examining whether shifts in spectral decomposition between two frames of data are significant. Rejection of the null hypothesis will point not only to weak nonstationarity but to shifts in the structure of the second-order moments of the limiting distribution of the random process. This would indicate that the second-order properties of any underlying attractor set has changed in a statistically significant way, pointing to the presence of evolutionary change. A demonstration of the test's applicability to a real-world macroeconomic problem is accomplished by applying the test to the Australian Building Society Deposits (ABSD) model.

Development of paper-based color test-strip for drug detection in aquatic environment: Application to oxytetracycline

The wide use of antibiotics in aquaculture has led to the emergence of resistant microbial species. It should be avoided/minimized by controlling the amount of drug employed in fish farming. For this purpose, the present work proposes test-strip papers aiming at the detection/semi-quantitative determination of organic drugs by visual comparison of color changes, in a similar analytical procedure to that of pH monitoring by universal pH paper. This is done by establishing suitable chemical changes upon cellulose, attributing the paper the ability to react with the organic drug and to produce a color change. Quantitative data is also enabled by taking a picture and applying a suitable mathematical treatment to the color coordinates given by the HSL system used by windows. As proof of concept, this approach was applied to oxytetracycline (OXY), one of the antibiotics frequently used in aquaculture. A bottom-up modification of paper was established, starting by the reaction of the glucose moieties on the paper with 3-triethoxysilylpropylamine (APTES). The so-formed amine layer allowed binding to a metal ion by coordination chemistry, while the metal ion reacted after with the drug to produce a colored compound. The most suitable metals to carry out such modification were selected by bulk studies, and the several stages of the paper modification were optimized to produce an intense color change against the concentration of the drug. The paper strips were applied to the analysis of spiked environmental water, allowing a quantitative determination for OXY concentrations as low as 30 ng/mL. In general, this work provided a simple, method to screen and discriminate tetracycline drugs, in aquaculture, being a promising tool for local, quick and cheap monitoring of drugs.

Specificity of the rapid rK39 antigen-based immunochromatographic test Kalazar Detect(r) in patients with cutaneous leishmaniasis in Brazil

The aim of this study was to evaluate the specificity of a rapid immunochromatographic test that was developed to detect antibodies against the rK39 antigen for the diagnosis of visceral leishmaniasis (VL). This evaluation was performed using sera from patients with a confirmed diagnosis of active cutaneous leishmaniasis. The sera from 272 patients with a confirmed diagnosis of localised cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) who resided in an area endemic for Leishmania braziliensis in Brazil were obtained before the initiation of antileishmanial treatment. Kalazar Detect(r)(InBios, Seattle, WA) recombinant K39 antigen-based immunochromatographic strips were used according to the manufacturer's instructions. The test results were evaluated independently by two examiners in sequential order. The positive controls for the test included five serum samples from five patients with parasitologically confirmed diagnosis of VL caused by Leishmania infantum in Brazil. Overall, 100% of the samples obtained from patients with CL were negative, confirming the absence of a serological cross-reaction for individuals with cutaneous disease when these patients were evaluated using the rapid test. The lack of a cross-reaction in patients who were infected by parasites of the same genus highlights the specificity of the rK39 antigen for the diagnosis of VL in areas with the sympatric circulation of L. braziliensis and L. infantum.

A new blood-based screening test for colorectal cancer: a pilot study

Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) can be cured when diagnosed in its early or precancerous (adenoma) stages. Mostly due to poor compliance towards invasive screening procedures, detection rates for adenoma and early CRCs are still low. Available non-invasive screening tests have unfortunately low sensitivity and specificity performances. Therefore, there is a large unmet need calling for a cost-effective, reliable and non-invasive test to screen for early neoplastic and pre-neoplastic lesions. Objective: To develop a routine screening test based on a nucleic acids multi-gene assay performed on peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) that can detect early CRCs and adenomas. Methods: 116 patients (mean age: 55 years; range: 18 to 74 years; female/male ration 0.98) were included in this pilot, nonblinded, colonoscopy-controlled study. Colonoscopy revealed 21 patients with CRC, 30 patients with adenoma bigger than 1 cm, 24 patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and 41 patients had no neoplastic or inflammatory lesions. Blood samples were taken from each patient the day of the colonoscopy and PBMCs were purified. Total RNA was extracted following standard procedures. Multiplex RT-qPCR was applied on 92 different candidate biomarkers. Different univariate and multivariate statistical methods were applied on these candidates, and among them, 57 biomarkers with significant p values (<0.01, Wilcoxon test) were selected, including ADAMTS1, MMP9, CXCL10, CXCR4, VEGFA and CDH1. Two distinct biomarker signatures are used to separate patients without neoplastic lesion from those with cancer (named COLOX 1 test), respectively from those with adenoma (named COLOX 2 test). Result: COLOX 1 and 2 tests have successfully separated patients without neoplastic lesion from those with CRC (sensitivity 70%, specificity 90%, AUC 0.88), respectively from those with adenoma bigger than 1cm (sensitivity 61%, specificity 80%, AUC 0.80). 6/24 patients in the IBD group have a positive COLOX 1 test. Conclusion: These two COLOX tests demonstrated an acceptable sensitivity and a high specificity to detect the presence of CRCs and adenomas bigger than 1 cm. The false positives COLOX 1 test in IBD patients could possibly be due to the chronic inflammatory state. A prospective, multicenter, pivotal study is underway in order to confirm these promising results in a larger cohort.

Seasonal adjustment and cointegration

El documento examina el efecto de filtros de ajuste en el tamaño y poder de prueba de cointegración que usan los residuales como pruebas ADF y PP, mediante procedimientos MonteCarlo y una aplicación empírica. Nuestros resultados indican que el uso de filtros distorsiona el tamaño y reduce el poder de estas pruebas.

Validity evidence based on test content

Resumen tomado de la publicación

Colon extended physiologically based extraction test (CE-PBET) increases bioaccessibility of soil-bound PAH

Assessment of the risk to human health posed by contaminated land may be seriously overestimated if reliant on total pollutant concentration. In vitro extraction tests, such as the physiologically based extraction test (PBET), imitate the physicochemical conditions of the human gastro-intestinal tract and offer a more practicable alternative for routine testing purposes. However, even though passage through the colon accounts for approximately 80% of the transit time through the human digestive tract and the typical contents of the colon in vivo are a carbohydrate-rich aqueous medium with the potential to promote desorption of organic pollutants, PBET comprises stomach and small intestine compartments only. Through addition of an eight-hour colon compartment to PBET and use of a carbohydrate-rich fed-state medium we demonstrated that colon-extended PBET (CE-PBET) in- creased assessments of soil-bound PAH bioaccessibility by up to 50% in laboratory soils and a factor of 4 in field soils. We attribute this increased bioaccessibility to a combination of the additional extraction time and the presence of carbohydrates in the colon compartment, both of which favor PAH desorption from soil. We propose that future assessments of the bioaccessibility of organic pollutants in soils using physiologically based extraction tests should have a colon compartment as in CE-PBET.

The case for property in the long run: a cointegration test

The benefits of property in the mixed asset portfolio has been the subject of a number of studies both in the UK and around the world. The traditional way of investigating this issue is to use MPT with the results suggesting that Property should play a significant role in the mixed asset portfolio. These results are not without criticism and generally revolve around quality and quantity of the property data series. To overcome these deficiencies this paper uses cointegration methodology which examines the longer term time series behaviour of various asset markets using a very long run desmoothed data series. Using a number of different cointegration tests, both pair-wise and multivariate, the results show, in unambiguous terms, that there is no contemporous cointegration between the major asset classes Property, Equities and Bonds. The implications of which are that Property does indeed have a risk reducing place to play in the long-run strategic mixed-asset portfolio. A result of particular relevance to institutions such as pension funds and life insurance companies who would wish to hold investments for the long-term.

False-positive results of a rapid K39-based strip test and Chagas disease

Background: The definitive diagnosis of visceral. leishmaniasis (VL) requires invasive procedures with demonstration of amastigotes in tissue or promastigotes in culture. Unfortunately, these approaches require laboratory materials not available in poor countries where the disease is endemic. The correct diagnosis of VL is important, and made more difficult by the fact that several common tropical diseases such as malaria, disseminated tuberculosis, and enteric fever share the same clinical presentation. Serological tests have been developed to replace parasitological diagnosis in the field. A commercially available K39-based strip test for VL has been developed for this purpose. The endemic area of leishmaniasis in Brazil overlaps the endemic area of Chagas disease, a disease that can cause false-positive serological test results. The aim of this study was to evaluate the incidence of false-positive exams using a rapid test for VL in patients with Chagas disease. Methods: A rapid test based on the recombinant K39 antigen of Leishmania was used in: (1) 30 patients with confirmed Chagas disease, (2) 30 patients with a serological diagnosis of Chagas disease by ELISA, indirect immunofluorescence, indirect hemagglutination, and chemiluminescence, (3) 30 healthy patients from a non-endemic area as the control group, (4) 30 patients with confirmed VL, and (5) 20 patients with proved cutaneous leishmaniasis. Results: The sensitivity and specificity of the rapid strip test were 100% when compared with healthy volunteers and those with confirmed Chagas disease. One false-positive result occurred in the group with Chagas disease diagnosed by serological tests (specificity of 96%). Conclusion: The rapid test based on recombinant K39 is a useful diagnostic assay, and a false-positive result rarely occurs in patients with a serological diagnosis of Chagas disease. (C) 2008 International Society for Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Detection of bovine Herpesvirus type 5 in formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded bovine brain by PCR: a useful adjunct to conventional tissue-based diagnostic test of bovine encephalitis

The aim of this study was to evaluate the application of PCR technique for the detection of BoHV-5 in routinely formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded brain tissues in 20 naturally infected calves affected by fatal meningoencephalitis. Brains were divided into two halves, one kept fresh for virus isolation and PCR assay, targeting the glycoprotein C gene from BoHV-5 genome. The other half brain, corresponding to posterior cortex region, was submitted to formalin fixation and embedded into paraffin blocks for microscopic evaluation and total DNA isolation. Most of the slides showed severe multifocal non-supurative encephalitis with neuronal degeneration, neurophagia, and no acidophilic intranuclear inclusions could be found in neurons and glial. The 20 fresh samples were confirmed, by virus isolation and PCR assay, as having the BoHV-5 virus and, respective glicoprotein C sequence, while 15 of 20 formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded samples were considered positive for the same analysis. The results revealed the first description of PCR efficiency, applied to formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded brain collected from naturally infected calves, improving the detection of BoHV-5 from archival samples in South America. (c) 2007 Published by Elsevier B.V.