Chronological Monte Carlo-based assessment of distribution system reliability

Regulatory authorities in many countries, in order to maintain an acceptable balance between appropriate customer service qualities and costs, are introducing a performance-based regulation. These regulations impose penalties, and in some cases rewards, which introduce a component of financial risk to an electric power utility due to the uncertainty associated with preserving a specific level of system reliability. In Brazil, for instance, one of the reliability indices receiving special attention by the utilities is the Maximum Continuous Interruption Duration per customer (MCID). This paper describes a chronological Monte Carlo simulation approach to evaluate probability distributions of reliability indices, including the MCID, and the corresponding penalties. In order to get the desired efficiency, modern computational techniques are used for modeling (UML -Unified Modeling Language) as well as for programming (Object- Oriented Programming). Case studies on a simple distribution network and on real Brazilian distribution systems are presented and discussed. © Copyright KTH 2006.

Determination of intrarenal resistance index (RI) in patients with multiple myeloma

Renal impairment is a common complication of multiple myeloma occurring in up to 50 % of patients at some stage in their disease. Due to occurrence of cast nephropathies we hypothesized circulatory dysregulation (vasoconstriction) in the kidneys with measurable elevation of the resistance index among these patients which would have a diagnostic impact.

Age dependency of intrarenal resistance index (RI) in healthy adults and patients with fatty liver disease

BACKGROUND: Our aim was to investigate the influence of age and gender on intrarenal resistance index (RI) measurements in 78 healthy subjects (46 males, 32 females; group 1) and 35 subjects (group 2) with fatty liver disease (28 males and 7 females). SUBJECTS AND METHODS: First, each subject underwent a conventional abdominal ultrasound examination. Then, intrarenal RI values were determined from three distinct interlobar and cortical arteries respectively on both kidneys. The correlation of intrarenal RI with age and gender as a variable was statistically evaluated by linear regression. RESULTS: In group 1, the variables gender, kidney region and comparison of right versus left kidney had no significant effect on intrarenal RI (p>0.05). The variable age, on the other hand, showed a significant positive correlation on all four defined measuring points (p<0.01) with linear correlation coefficients of r = 0.26 (left kidney, central) to r = 0.37 (right kidney, cortical). Therefore normal RI values at ages 25, 45, 65 years could be defined as 0.59, 0.61 and 0.63, respectively. Age dependency can thus be expressed as a function with the formula y = 0.565 + 0.001.x. Patients with fatty liver disease showed age dependency on renal RI (p<0.01) as well. CONCLUSION: In accordance with other studies, the influence of age on intrarenal RI measurement is significant in healthy subjects. Intrarenal RI values from subjects with a fatty liver disease showed age dependency as well. Therefore it is necessary to consider the age of the examined person to interpret RI values correctly.

A critical analysis of Doppler velocimetry in the differential diagnosis of malignant and benign ovarian masses

Objectives: To evaluate the intratumoral reliability of color Doppler parameters and the contribution of Doppler sonography to the gray-scale differential diagnosis of ovarian masses. Methods: An observational study was performed including 67 patients, 15 (22.4%) with malignant ovarian neoplasm and 52 (77.6%) with benign ovarian diseases. We performed the Doppler evaluation in two distinct vessels selected after decreasing the Doppler gain to sample only vessels with higher velocity flow. Doppler measurements were obtained from each identified vessel, and resistive index (RI), pulsatility index (PI), peak systolic velocity (PSV), and end-diastolic velocity (EDV) were measured. Intraclass coefficient of correlation (ICC), sensitivity, specificity, and potential improvement in gray-scale ultrasound performance were calculated. Results: The general ICC were 0.60 (95% CI 0.42- 0.73) for RI, 0.65 (95% CI 0.49- 0.77) for PI, 0.07 (95% CI- 0.17-0.30) for PSV, and 0.19 (95% CI -0.05-0.41) for EDV. The sensitivity and specificity were respectively 84.6% and 86.7% for RI, 69.2% and 93.3% for PI, 80.0% and 65.4% for gray-scale sonography, and 93.3% and 65.4% for gray-scale plus RI (p = 0.013). Conclusions: Gynecologists must be careful in interpreting results from Doppler evaluation of ovarian masses because PSV and EDV present poor intratumoral reliability. The lower RI value, evaluated in at least two distinct sites of the tumor, was able to improve the performance of gray-scale ultrasound in differential diagnosis of ovarian masses.

An approach for reliability-based robust design optimisation of angle-ply composites

Variations of manufacturing process parameters and environmental aspects may affect the quality and performance of composite materials, which consequently affects their structural behaviour. Reliability-based design optimisation (RBDO) and robust design optimisation (RDO) searches for safe structural systems with minimal variability of response when subjected to uncertainties in material design parameters. An approach that simultaneously considers reliability and robustness is proposed in this paper. Depending on a given reliability index imposed on composite structures, a trade-off is established between the performance targets and robustness. Robustness is expressed in terms of the coefficient of variation of the constrained structural response weighted by its nominal value. The Pareto normed front is built and the nearest point to the origin is estimated as the best solution of the bi-objective optimisation problem.

Uncertainty propagation in inverse reliability-based design of composite structures

An approach for the analysis of uncertainty propagation in reliability-based design optimization of composite laminate structures is presented. Using the Uniform Design Method (UDM), a set of design points is generated over a domain centered on the mean reference values of the random variables. A methodology based on inverse optimal design of composite structures to achieve a specified reliability level is proposed, and the corresponding maximum load is outlined as a function of ply angle. Using the generated UDM design points as input/output patterns, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is developed based on an evolutionary learning process. Then, a Monte Carlo simulation using ANN development is performed to simulate the behavior of the critical Tsai number, structural reliability index, and their relative sensitivities as a function of the ply angle of laminates. The results are generated for uniformly distributed random variables on a domain centered on mean values. The statistical analysis of the results enables the study of the variability of the reliability index and its sensitivity relative to the ply angle. Numerical examples showing the utility of the approach for robust design of angle-ply laminates are presented.

A reliability-based measure of robustness for concrete structures subjected to corrosion

This work is a contribution to the definition and assessment of structural robustness. Special emphasis is given to reliability of reinforced concrete structures under corrosion of longitudinal reinforcement. On this communication several authors’ proposals in order to define and measure structural robustness are analyzed and discussed. The probabilistic based robustness index is defined, considering the reliability index decreasing for all possible damage levels. Damage is considered as the corrosion level of the longitudinal reinforcement in terms of rebar weight loss. Damage produces changes in both cross sectional area of rebar and bond strength. The proposed methodology is illustrated by means of an application example. In order to consider the impact of reinforcement corrosion on failure probability growth, an advanced methodology based on the strong discontinuities approach and an isotropic continuum damage model for concrete is adopted. The methodology consist on a two-step analysis: on the first step an analysis of the cross section is performed in order to capture phenomena such as expansion of the reinforcement due to the corrosion products accumulation and damage and cracking in the reinforcement surrounding concrete; on the second step a 2D deteriorated structural model is built with the results obtained on the first step of the analysis. The referred methodology combined with a Monte Carlo simulation is then used to compute the failure probability and the reliability index of the structure for different corrosion levels. Finally, structural robustness is assessed using the proposed probabilistic index.

Simultaneous cell morphometry and refractive index measurement with dual-wavelength digital holographic microscopy and dye-enhanced dispersion of perfusion medium.

Digital holographic microscopy (DHM) allows optical-path-difference (OPD) measurements with nanometric accuracy. OPD induced by transparent cells depends on both the refractive index (RI) of cells and their morphology. This Letter presents a dual-wavelength DHM that allows us to separately measure both the RI and the cellular thickness by exploiting an enhanced dispersion of the perfusion medium achieved by the utilization of an extracellular dye. The two wavelengths are chosen in the vicinity of the absorption peak of the dye, where the absorption is accompanied by a significant variation of the RI as a function of the wavelength.

Measurement of absolute cell volume, osmotic membrane water permeability, and refractive index of transmembrane water and solute flux by digital holographic microscopy.

ABSTRACT. A dual-wavelength digital holographic microscope to measure absolute volume of living cells is proposed. The optical setup allows us to reconstruct two quantitative phase contrast images at two different wavelengths from a single hologram acquisition. When adding the absorbing dye fast green FCF as a dispersive agent to the extracellular medium, cellular thickness can be univocally determined in the full field of view. In addition to the absolute cell volume, the method can be applied to derive important biophysical parameters of living cells including osmotic membrane water permeability coefficient and the integral intracellular refractive index (RI). Further, the RI of transmembrane flux can be determined giving an indication about the nature of transported solutes. The proposed method is applied to cultured human embryonic kidney cells, Chinese hamster ovary cells, human red blood cells, mouse cortical astrocytes, and neurons.

Quantitative structure-retention relationships analysis of retention index of essential oils

Genetic algorithm and multiple linear regression (GA-MLR), partial least square (GA-PLS), kernel PLS (GA-KPLS) and Levenberg-Marquardt artificial neural network (L-M ANN) techniques were used to investigate the correlation between retention index (RI) and descriptors for 116 diverse compounds in essential oils of six Stachys species. The correlation coefficient LGO-CV (Q²) between experimental and predicted RI for test set by GA-MLR, GA-PLS, GA-KPLS and L-M ANN was 0.886, 0.912, 0.937 and 0.964, respectively. This is the first research on the QSRR of the essential oil compounds against the RI using the GA-KPLS and L-M ANN.

Specialized genetic algorithm for transmission network expansion planning considering reliability

This paper presents a methodology to solve the transmission network expansion planning problem (TNEP) considering reliability and uncertainty in the demand. The proposed methodology provides an optimal expansion plan that allows the power system to operate adequately with an acceptable level of reliability and in an enviroment with uncertainness. The reliability criterion limits the expected value of the reliability index (LOLE - Loss Of Load Expectation) of the expanded system. The reliability is evaluated for the transmission system using an analytical technique based in enumeration. The mathematical model is solved, in a efficient way, using a specialized genetic algorithm of Chu-Beasley modified. Detailed results from an illustrative example are presented and discussed. © 2009 IEEE.

Network reconfiguration of distribution systems using metaheuristics and reliability measures

In an evermore competitive environment, power distribution companies need to continuously monitor and improve the reliability indices of their systems. The network reconfiguration (NR) of a distribution system is a technique that well adapts to this new deregulated environment for it allows improvement of system reliability indices without the onus involved in procuring new equipment. This paper presents a reliability-based NR methodology that uses metaheuristic techniques to search for the optimal network configuration. Three metaheuristics, i.e. Tabu Search, Evolution Strategy, and Differential Evolution, are tested using a Brazilian distribution network and the results are discussed. © 2009 IEEE.

The effects of different inspired oxygen fractions on gas exchange and Tei-index of myocardial performance in propofol-anesthetized dogs

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Intrarenal resistance index for the assessment of early renal function impairment in patients with liver cirrhosis

BACKGROUND: Renovascular vasoconstriction in patients with hepatorenal syndrome can be quantified by the renal arterial resistance index (RI). We investigated the value of RI measurement in detection of renal function impairment in patients with different stages of chronic liver disease. METHODS: Subjects were divided into 4 groups containing 21 patients with liver cirrhosis and ascites, 25 patients with liver cirrhosis without ascites, 35 patients with fatty liver disease and 78 control subjects. All patients underwent abdominal ultrasound examination with renal RI measurement and correlation with laboratory results for renal function. RESULTS: RI was significantly higher in ascitic patients compared to non-ascitic patients (0.74 vs. 0.67, p<0.01) and in non-ascitic patients with liver cirrhosis than in control subjects (0.67 vs. 0.62, p<0.01). 48% (19/40) of patients with liver cirrhosis and normal serum creatinine concentration showed elevated RI levels. There were no significant differences in RI levels between patients with fatty liver disease and controls (0.63 vs. 0.62). CONCLUSIONS: Intrarenal RI measurement is a predictor of renal vasoconstriction and serves to detect early renal function impairment in cirrhotic patients. The diagnosis of elevated RI may be taken into account in the clinical management of these patients.

Relationship between renal resistance index and renal function in liver transplant recipients after cessation of calcineurin inhibitor

End stage renal disease is a major complication after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). Vasoconstriction of renal arterial vessels because of calcineurin inhibitor (CNI) treatment plays a pivotal role in the development of renal insufficiency following OLT. Renal resistance can be measured non-invasively by determining the resistance index (RI) of segmental arteries by color-coded duplex ultrasonography, a measure with predictive value for future renal failure. Sixteen OLT patients on long-term CNI therapy were recruited prospectively and randomly assigned either to receive the m-TOR inhibitor sirolimus (SRL) or to continue on CNI treatment, and were followed for one yr. Serum creatinine (crea) declined after conversion to SRL, whereas it tended to increase in patients remaining on CNI (meanDelta crea SRL: -27, -18, -18, -15 micromol/L; meanDelta crea CNI: 4, 5, 8, 11 micromol/L at 1, 3, 6, 12 months, p = 0.02). RI improved after switching to SRL and was lower on SRL than on CNI (meanDeltaRI SRL: -0.04, -0.04, -0.03, -0.03; meanDeltaRI CNI: -0.006, 0.004, -0.007, -0.01 after 1, 3, 6, 12 months, p = 0.016). Individual changes of RI correlated significantly with individual changes of crea (r = 0.54, p < 0.001). Conversion from CNI to SRL can ameliorate renal function accompanied by a reduction of intrarenal RI after OLT.