Mechanism based emulation of dynamic simulation models : concept and application in hydrology

Many model-based investigation techniques, such as sensitivity analysis, optimization, and statistical inference, require a large number of model evaluations to be performed at different input and/or parameter values. This limits the application of these techniques to models that can be implemented in computationally efficient computer codes. Emulators, by providing efficient interpolation between outputs of deterministic simulation models, can considerably extend the field of applicability of such computationally demanding techniques. So far, the dominant techniques for developing emulators have been priors in the form of Gaussian stochastic processes (GASP) that were conditioned with a design data set of inputs and corresponding model outputs. In the context of dynamic models, this approach has two essential disadvantages: (i) these emulators do not consider our knowledge of the structure of the model, and (ii) they run into numerical difficulties if there are a large number of closely spaced input points as is often the case in the time dimension of dynamic models. To address both of these problems, a new concept of developing emulators for dynamic models is proposed. This concept is based on a prior that combines a simplified linear state space model of the temporal evolution of the dynamic model with Gaussian stochastic processes for the innovation terms as functions of model parameters and/or inputs. These innovation terms are intended to correct the error of the linear model at each output step. Conditioning this prior to the design data set is done by Kalman smoothing. This leads to an efficient emulator that, due to the consideration of our knowledge about dominant mechanisms built into the simulation model, can be expected to outperform purely statistical emulators at least in cases in which the design data set is small. The feasibility and potential difficulties of the proposed approach are demonstrated by the application to a simple hydrological model.

Geophysical Investigation of Subsurface Three-Dimensional Architecture of Icy Debris Fans With Ground Penetrating Radar in the Wrangell Mountains, Alaska

Icy debris fans have are newly-described landforms (Kochel and Trop, 2008 and 2012) as landforms developed immediately after deglaciation on Earth and similar features have been observed on Mars. Subsurface characteristics of Icy debris fans have not been previously investigated. Ground penetrating radar (GPR) was used to non-invasively investigate the subsurface characteristics of icy debris fans near McCarthy, Alaska, USA. The three fans investigated in Alaska are the East, West, and Middle fans (Kochel and Trop, 2008 and 2012) which below the Nabesna ice cap and on top of the McCarthy Creek Glacier. Icy debris fans in general are a largely unexplored suite of paraglacial landforms and processes in alpine regions. Recent field studies focused on direct observations and depositional processes. Their results showed that the fan's composition is primarily influenced by the type and frequency of depositional processes that supply the fan. Photographic studies show that the East Fan receives far more ice and snow avalanches whereas the Middle and West Fans receive fewer mass wasting events but more clastic debris is deposited on the Middle and West fan from rock falls and icy debris flows. GPR profiles and Wide-angle reflection and refraction (WARR) surveys consisting of both, common mid-point (CMP), and common shot-point (CSP) surveys investigated the subsurface geometry of the fans and the McCarthy Creek Glacier. All GPR surveys were collected in July of 2013 with 100MHz bi-static antennas. Four axial profiles and three cross-fan profiles were done on the West and Middle fans as well as the McCarthy Creek Glacier in order to investigate the relationship between the three features. GPR profiles yielded reflectors that were continuous for 10+ m and hyperbolic reflections in the subsurface. The depth to these reflections in the subsurface requires knowledge of the velocity of the subsurface. To find the velocity of the subsurface eight WARR surveys collected on the fans and on the McCarthy Creek glacier to provide information on variability of subsurface velocities. The profiles of the Middle and West fan have more reflections in their profiles compared to profiles done on the McCarthy Creek Glacier. Based on the WARR surveys, we interpret the lower energy return in the glacier to be caused by two reasons. 1) The increased attenuation due to wet ice versus drier ice and on the fan with GPR velocities >0.15m/ns. 2) Lack of interfaces in the glacier compared to those in the fans which are inferred to be produced by the alternating layers of stratified ice and lithic-rich layers. The GPR profiles on the West and Middle Fans show the shallow subsurface being dominated by lenticular reflections interpreted to be consistent with the shape of surficial deposits. The West Fan is distinguished from the Middle Fan by the nature of its reflections patterns and thicknesses of reflection packages that clearly shows the Middle fan with a greater thickness. The changes in subsurface reflections between the Middle and West Fans as well as the McCarthy Creek Glacier are thought to reflect the type and frequency of depositional processes and surrounding bedrock and talus slopes.

Present-day King George Island ice cap geometry measured by ground penetrating radar in 2008/09

We present a consistent data set for the ice thickness, the bedrock topography and the ice surface topography of the King George Island ice cap (Arctowski Icefield and the adjacent central part). The data set is composed of groundbased and airborne Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) and differential GPS (DGPS) measurements, obtained during several field campaigns. The data set incorporates groundbased measurements in the safely accessible inner parts and airborne measurements in the heavily crevassed coastal areas of the ice cap. In particular, the inclusion of airborne GPR measurements with the 30MHz BGR-P30-System developed at the Institute of Geophysics (University of Münster) completes the picture of the ice geometry substantially. The compiled digital elevation model of the bedrock shows a rough, highly variable topography with pronounced valleys, ridges, and troughs. The mean ice thickness is approx. 238m, with a maximum value of approx. 400m in the surveyed area. Noticeable are bounded areas in the bedrock topography below sea level where marine based ice exists.

Nonlinear and Scaling Processes in Hydrology and Soil Science

Hydrology is the study of the properties, distribution and effects of water on the Earth?s soil, rocks and atmosphere. It also encompasses the study of the hydrologic cycle of precipitation, runoff, infiltration, storage, and evaporation, including the physical, biological and chemical reaction of water with the earth and its relation to life?.

Helium in solubility equilibrium with quartz and porefluids in rocks - a new approach in hydrology

Quartz crystals in sandstones at depths of 1200 m–1400 m below the surface appear to reach a solubility equilibrium with the 4He-concentration in the surrounding pore- or groundwater after some time. A rather high 4Heconcentration of 4.5x10E-3 cc STP 4He/cm3 of water measured in a groundwater sample would for instance maintain a He pressure of 0.47 atm in a related volume. This value is equal within analytical error to the pressure deduced from the measured helium content of the quartz and its internal helium-accessible volume. To determine this volume, quartz crystals of 0.1 to 1 mm were separated from sandstones and exposed to a helium gas pressure of 32 atm at a temperature of 290°C for up to 2 months. By crushing, melting or isothermal heating the helium was then extracted from the helium saturated samples. Avolume on the order of 0.1% of the crystal volume is only accessible to helium atoms but not to argon atoms or water molecules. By monitoring the diffusive loss of He from the crystals at 350°C an effective diffusion constant on the order of 10E-9 cm2/s is estimated. Extrapolation to the temperature of 70°C in the sediments at a depth of 1400 m gives a typical time of about 100 000 years to reach equilibrium between helium in porewaters and the internal He-accessible volume of quartz crystals. In a geologic situation with stagnant pore- or groundwaters in sediments it therefore appears to be possible with this new method to deduce a 4He depth profile for porewaters in impermeable rocks based on their mineral record.

A system for using radar to record wave direction /

"September 1979."

Performance evaluation of neural network algorithms for multisensor data fusion in an airborne track while scan radar

This paper deals with the solution to the problem of multisensor data fusion for a single target scenario as detected by an airborne track-while-scan radar. The details of a neural network implementation, various training algorithms based on standard backpropagation, and the results of training and testing the neural network are presented. The promising capabilities of RPROP algorithm for multisensor data fusion for various parameters are shown in comparison to other adaptive techniques

Crevasses detection in Himalayan glaciers using ground-penetrating radar

Identification and mapping of crevasses in glaciated regions is important for safe movement. However, the remote and rugged glacial terrain in the Himalaya poses greater challenges for field data collection. In the present study crevasse signatures were collected from Siachen and Samudra Tapu glaciers in the Indian Himalaya using ground-penetrating radar (GPR). The surveys were conducted using the antennas of 250 MHz frequency in ground mode and 350 MHz in airborne mode. The identified signatures of open and hidden crevasses in GPR profiles collected in ground mode were validated by ground truthing. The crevasse zones and buried boulder areas in a glacier were identified using a combination of airborne GPR profiles and SAR data, and the same have been validated with the high-resolution optical satellite imagery (Cartosat-1) and Survey of India mapsheet. Using multi-sensor data, a crevasse map for Samudra Tapu glacier was prepared. The present methodology can also be used for mapping the crevasse zones in other glaciers in the Himalaya.

Design of a wideband conformal array antenna system with beamforming and null steering, for application in a DVB-T based passive radar

The use of radars in detecting low flying, small targets is being explored for several decades now. However radar with counter-stealth abilities namely the passive, multistatic, low frequency radars are in the focus recently. Passive radar that uses Digital Video Broadcast Terrestrial (DVB-T) signals as illuminator of opportunity is a major contender in this area. A DVB-T based passive radar requires the development of an antenna array that performs satisfactorily over the entire DVB-T band. At Fraunhofer FHR, there is currently a need for an array antenna to be designed for operation over the 450-900 MHz range with wideband beamforming and null steering capabilities. This would add to the ability of the passive radar in detecting covert targets and would improve the performance of the system. The array should require no mechanical adjustments to inter-element spacing to correspond to the DVB-T carrier frequency used for any particular measurement. Such an array would have an increased flexibility of operation in different environment or locations.

The design of such an array antenna and the applied techniques for wideband beamforming and null steering are presented in the thesis. The interaction between the inter-element spacing, the grating lobes and the mutual couplings had to be carefully studied and an optimal solution was to be reached at that meets all the specifications of the antenna array for wideband applications. Directional beams, nulls along interference directions, low sidelobe levels, polarization aspects and operation along a wide bandwidth of 450-900 MHz were some of the key considerations.

Radar bright band correction using the linear depolarisation ratio

The enhanced radar return associated with melting snow, ‘the bright band’, can lead to large overestimates of rain rates. Most correction schemes rely on fitting the radar observations to a vertical profile of reflectivity (VPR) which includes the bright band enhancement. Observations show that the VPR is very variable in space and time; large enhancements occur for melting snow, but none for the melting graupel in embedded convection. Applying a bright band VPR correction to a region of embedded convection will lead to a severe underestimate of rainfall. We revive an earlier suggestion that high values of the linear depolarisation ratio (LDR) are an excellent means of detecting when bright band contamination is occurring and that the value of LDR may be used to correct the value of Z in the bright band.