Distinguishing forced versus discretionary replacements in new product diffusion models

In many product categories of durable goods such as TV, PC, and DVD player, the largest component of sales is generated by consumers replacing existing units. Aggregate sales models proposed by diffusion of innovation researchers for the replacement component of sales have incorporated several different replacement distributions such as Rayleigh, Weibull, Truncated Normal and Gamma. Although these alternative replacement distributions have been tested using both time series sales data and individual-level actuarial “life-tables” of replacement ages, there is no census on which distributions are more appropriate to model replacement behaviour. In the current study we are motivated to develop a new “modified gamma” distribution by two reasons. First we recognise that replacements have two fundamentally different drivers – those forced by failure and early, discretionary replacements. The replacement distribution for each of these drivers is expected to be quite different. Second, we observed a poor fit of other distributions to out empirical data. We conducted a survey of 8,077 households to empirically examine models of replacement sales for six electronic consumer durables – TVs, VCRs, DVD players, digital cameras, personal and notebook computers. This data allows us to construct individual-level “life-tables” for replacement ages. We demonstrate the new modified gamma model fits the empirical data better than existing models for all six products using both a primary and a hold-out sample.

Approaches to selecting native plant replacements for fleshy-fruited invasive species

Invasive plants are a serious threat to biodiversity. Yet, in some cases, they may play an important ecological role in heavily modified landscapes, such as where fleshy-fruited invasive plants support populations of native frugivores. How can such conservation conflicts be managed? We advocate an approach in which native fleshy-fruited plants are ranked on their ability to provide the fruit food resources for native frugivores currently being provided by invasive plants. If these native taxa are preferentially used, where ecologically appropriate, in plantings for restoration and in park and garden settings, they could help support native frugivore populations in the event of extensive invasive plant control. We develop and critically examine six approaches to selecting candidate native plant taxa: a multivariate approach based on the frugivore assemblage, a scoring model, and several multivariate approaches (including trait combinations having the greatest correlation with the diet of the native frugivore assemblage) based on the functional traits of fruit morphology, phenology, conspicuousness, and accessibility. To illustrate these approaches, we use a case study with Bitou bush (Chrysanthemoides monilifera subsp. rotundata) (Asteraceae), an Australian Weed of National Significance. The model using a dissimilarity value generated from all available traits identified a set of species used by the frugivores of C. monilifera more than null models. A replacement approach using species ranked by either all traits available or the frugivore community appears best suited to guide selection of plants in restoration practice.

Selecting replacements for invasive plants to support frugivores in highly modified sites: a case study focusing on Lantana camara

Invasive plants are regarded as a major threat to biodiversity worldwide. Yet, in some cases, invasive plants now perform important ecological functions. For example, fleshy-fruited invasive plants provide food that supports indigenous frugivore populations. How can the disparate goals of conservation versus invasive weed control be managed? We suggest using the fruit characteristics of the invasive plant to select replacement indigenous plants that are functionally similar from the perspective of frugivores. These could provide replacement food resources at sites where plants with these characteristics are part of the goal plant community and where such plants would not otherwise regenerate. Replacement plants could also redirect seed dispersal processes to favour indigenous, rather than invasive, plant species. We investigated the utility of this approach by ranking all indigenous fleshy-fruited plant species from a region using a simple model that scored species based upon measures of fruit phenology, morphology, conspicuousness and accessibility relative to a target invasive species, Lantana (Lantana camara). The model successfully produced high scores for indigenous plant species that were used by more of the frugivores of Lantana than a random selection of plants, suggesting that this approach warrants further investigation.

Room-temperature ionic liquids as replacements for organic solvents in multiphase bioprocess operations

Organic solvents are widely used in a range of multiphase bioprocess operations including the liquid-liquid extraction of antibiotics and two-phase biotransformation reactions. There are, however, considerable problems associated with the safe handling of these solvents which relate to their toxic and flammable nature. In this work we have shown for the first time that room-temperature ionic liquids, such as 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium hexafluorophosphate, [bmim][PF6], can be successfully used in place of conventional solvents for the liquid-liquid extraction of erythromycin-A and for the Rhodococcus R312 catalyzed biotransformation of 1,3-dicyanobenzene (1,3-DCB) in a liquid-liquid, two-phase system. Extraction of erythromycin with either butyl acetate or [bmim][PF6] showed that values of the equilibrium partition coefficient, K, up to 20-25 could be obtained for both extractants. The variation of K with the extraction pH was also similar in the pH range 5-9 though differed significantly at higher pH values. Biotransformation of 1,3-DCB in both water-toluene and water-[bmim][PF6] systems showed similar profiles for the conversion of 1,3-DCB initially to 3-cyanobenzamide and then 3-cyanobenzoic acid. The initial rate of 3-cyanobenzamide production in the water-[bmim][PF6] system was somewhat lower, however, due to the reduced rate of 1,3-DCB mass transfer from the more viscous [bmim] [PF,] phase. it was also shown that the specific activity of the biocatalyst in the water-[bmim][PF6] system was almost an order of magnitude greater than in the water-toluene system which suggests that the rate of 3-cyanobenzamide production was limited by substrate mass transfer rather than the activity of the biocatalyst. (C) 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Correlation of synovial fluid cytokine levels with histological and clinical parameters of primary and revision total hip and total knee replacements

We retrieved synovial tissue and fluid samples from patients undergoing primary total hip replacement (THR) (n 15), revision of aseptically loose THR (n 12), primary total knee replacement (TKR) (n 13) and revision of aseptically loose TKR (n 6). Several histological parameters were assessed on a relative scale of 1-4. Primary TJRs were clinically evaluated for degree of osteoarthrosis. Revision TJRs were assessed for migration of the implant, gross loosening and the degree of radiolucency. Cytokine levels in synovial fluid were determined with ELISA.

A probabilistic modelling scheme for analysis of long-term failure of cemented femoral joint replacements

Reliable prediction of long-term medical device performance using computer simulation requires consideration of variability in surgical procedure, as well as patient-specific factors. However, even deterministic simulation of long-term failure processes for such devices is time and resource consuming so that including variability can lead to excessive time to achieve useful predictions. This study investigates the use of an accelerated probabilistic framework for predicting the likely performance envelope of a device and applies it to femoral prosthesis loosening in cemented hip arthroplasty.
A creep and fatigue damage failure model for bone cement, in conjunction with an interfacial fatigue model for the implant–cement interface, was used to simulate loosening of a prosthesis within a cement mantle. A deterministic set of trial simulations was used to account for variability of a set of surgical and patient factors, and a response surface method was used to perform and accelerate a Monte Carlo simulation to achieve an estimate of the likely range of prosthesis loosening. The proposed framework was used to conceptually investigate the influence of prosthesis selection and surgical placement on prosthesis migration.
Results demonstrate that the response surface method is capable of dramatically reducing the time to achieve convergence in mean and variance of predicted response variables. A critical requirement for realistic predictions is the size and quality of the initial training dataset used to generate the response surface and further work is required to determine the recommendations for a minimum number of initial trials. Results of this conceptual application predicted that loosening was sensitive to the implant size and femoral width. Furthermore, different rankings of implant performance were predicted when only individual simulations (e.g. an average condition) were used to rank implants, compared with when stochastic simulations were used. In conclusion, the proposed framework provides a viable approach to predicting realistic ranges of loosening behaviour for orthopaedic implants in reduced timeframes compared with conventional Monte Carlo simulations.